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  1. The hidden heterogeneity of inflation expectations and its implications
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: July 2, 2020
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2020, 054
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The multiplier effect of education expenditure
    Autor*in: Ridder, Maarten de; Hannon, Simona M.; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: May 28, 2020
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2020, 058
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Latent variables analysis in structural models
    a new decomposition of the Kalman smoother
    Autor*in: Chung, Hess; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina; Paustian, Matthias; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: December 2, 2020
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2020, 100
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Rendell, Lea
    Erschienen: February 27, 2019
    Verlag:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Leipzig]

    We explore the consequences of losing confidence in the price-stability objective of central banks by quantifying the inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint, we... mehr

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    We explore the consequences of losing confidence in the price-stability objective of central banks by quantifying the inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations. In a model with an occasionally binding zero-lower-bound constraint, we show that an inflation bias as well as a deflationary bias exist as a steady-state outcome. We assess the predictions of this model using unique individual-level inflation expectations data across nine countries that allow for a direct identification of these biases. Both inflation and deflationary biases are present (and sizable) in inflation expectations of these individuals. Among the euro-area countries in our sample, we can document significant differences in perceptions of the European Central Bank's objectives, despite having a common monetary policy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/203644
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; Array
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The hidden heterogeneity of inflation and interest rate expectations: the role of preferences
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Lüneburg

    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we study the role of macroeconomic preferences for expectations and economic decisions. While household expectations are inversely related to preferences, households with the same in ation expectations can... mehr

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    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we study the role of macroeconomic preferences for expectations and economic decisions. While household expectations are inversely related to preferences, households with the same in ation expectations can differently assess whether the level of expected in ation and of nominal interest rates is appropriate or too high/too low. This 'hidden heterogeneity' in expectations is correlated with sociodemographic characteristics and affects current and planned spending via the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. We also show that the variation in preferences can be explained with risk preferences. Overall, this adds a new dimension to the definition of anchored expectations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/234591
    Schriftenreihe: University of Lüneburg working paper series in economics ; no. 402 (May 2021)
    Schlagworte: Macroeconomic expectations; monetary policy perceptions; ination and interest rate preferences; risk preferences; survey microdata
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Rendell, Lea
    Erschienen: June 2019
    Verlag:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Schriftenreihe: BIS working papers ; no 789
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The hidden heterogeneity of inflation and interest rate expectations
    the role of preferences
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same... mehr

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    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we show that macroeconomic preferences affect expectations and economic decisions through different channels. While household expectations are on average inversely related to preferences, households with the same inflation or interest rate expectations can differently assess whether the level of the corresponding variable is appropriate or too high/too low. This "hidden heterogeneity" in expectations is correlated with sociodemographic characteristics and affects durable spending and saving decisions. We also show that the variation in inflation preferences can be explained with risk preferences. Overall, this adds a new dimension to the definition of anchored expectations.

     
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    hdl: 10419/260767
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9637 (2022)
    Schlagworte: macroeconomic expectations; monetary policy perceptions; inflation and interest rate preferences; risk preferences; survey microdata
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. How to limit the spillover from the 2021 inflation surge to inflation expectations?
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover, [Hannover]

    By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the... mehr

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    By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using information about inflation projections, where numerical information about professional forecasters' projections seems to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymaker’s characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252339
    Schriftenreihe: Hannover economic papers (HEP) / Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover ; Nummer: 694 (Feb 2022)
    Schlagworte: Short-run and long-run inflation expectations; inflation surge; randomized control trial; survey experiment; persistent or transitory inflation shock
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 14 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. How to limit the spillover from the 2021 inflation surge to inflation expectations?
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Lüneburg

    By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the... mehr

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    By providing numerical inflation projections. Many central banks currently face inflation well above their targets and with that the challenge to prevent spillovers on inflation expectations. We study the effect of different communication about the 2021 inflation surge on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using information about inflation projections, where numerical information about professional forecasters' projections seems to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymaker's characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/251593
    Schriftenreihe: University of Lüneburg working paper series in economics ; no. 407 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: Short-run and long-run inflation expectations; inflation surge; randomized control trial; survey experiment; persistent or transitory inflation shock
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The hidden heterogeneity of inflation expectations and its implications
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover, [Hannover]

    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we document a new dimension of heterogeneity in inflation expectations that has implications for consumption and saving decisions as well as monetary policy transmission. We show that German households with the... mehr

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    Using a new consumer survey dataset, we document a new dimension of heterogeneity in inflation expectations that has implications for consumption and saving decisions as well as monetary policy transmission. We show that German households with the same inflation expectations differently assess whether the level of expected inflation and of nominal interest rates is appropriate or too high/too low. The 'hidden heterogeneity' in expectations stemming from these opinions is related to demographic characteristics and affects current and planned spending in addition to the Euler equation effect of the perceived real interest rate. Furthermore, these differences in opinions affect German households differently depending on whether they are renters or homeowners.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216966
    Schriftenreihe: Hannover economic papers (HEP) ; Nummer: 666 (Feb 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    We study the effects of forward looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and... mehr

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    We study the effects of forward looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using forward looking information about inflation. Among these information treatments, professional forecasters' projections seems to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymaker's characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261484
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 168 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Short-run and long-run inflation expectations; inflation surge; randomized control trial; survey experiment; persistent or transitory inflation shock
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: March 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We study the effects of forward-looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We study the effects of forward-looking communication in an environment of rising inflation rates on German consumers' inflation expectations using a randomized control trial. We show that information about rising inflation increases short- and long-term inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated using forward-looking information about inflation. Among these information treatments, professional forecasters' projections seem to reduce inflation expectations by more than policymaker's characterization of inflation as a temporary phenomenon.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271974
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10330 (2023)
    Schlagworte: short-run and long-run inflation expectations; inflation surge; randomized control trial; survey experiment; persistent or transitory inflation shock
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. When is the fiscal multiplier high?
    a comparison of four business cycle phases
    Autor*in: Berge, Travis; Ridder, Maarten de; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2041
    Cambridge-INET working paper series ; no.: 2020, 24
    Schlagworte: Fiscal multipliers; countercyclical policy; cross-sectional analysis; local projections
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Credit frictions, collateral and the cyclical behavior of the finance premium
    Autor*in: Agénor, Pierre-Richard; Bratsiotis, George; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  ZBW, [Kiel

    This paper examines the behavior of the finance premium after technology and monetary shocks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where borrowers use a fraction of their production (output) as collateral. We show that this simple... mehr

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    This paper examines the behavior of the finance premium after technology and monetary shocks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where borrowers use a fraction of their production (output) as collateral. We show that this simple framework is capable of producing a countercyclical finance premium, while matching the well-documented stylized facts of macro dynamics. A key feature is the endogenous derivation of the default probability from break-even conditions, which results in the loan rate being set as a countercyclical finance premium over the cost of borrowing from the central bank. The latter is shown to provide an accelerator effect through which shocks can amplify the loan spread and the dynamic response of macro variables.

     
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    hdl: 10419/171323
    Auflage/Ausgabe: This version: June 1, 2012
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Frictions, persistence, and central bank policy in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy
    Autor*in: Noussair, Charles; Pfajfar, Damjan; Zsiros, Janos
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Research, Tilburg

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion Paper / CentER for Economic Research ; 2011,30
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Anpassungskosten; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht; Neoklassische Synthese; Experimentelle Ökonomik
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 53 S., 846,42 KB), Ill., graph. Darst.
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  16. Are consumer expectations theory-consistent?
    the role of macroeconomic determinants and central bank communication
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  KOF, Zürich

    Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We check whether their expectations are in line with the Phillips Curve, the... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Using the microdata of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we evaluate whether U.S. consumers form macroeconomic expectations consistent with different economic concepts. We check whether their expectations are in line with the Phillips Curve, the Taylor Rule and the Income Fisher Equation. We observe that 50% of the surveyed population have expectations consistent with the Income Fisher equation and the Taylor Rule, while 25% are in line with the Phillips Curve. However, only 6% of consumers form theory-consistent expectations with respect to all three concepts. For the Taylor Rule and the Phillips curve we observe a strong cyclical pattern. For all three concepts we find significant differences across demographic groups. Evaluating determinants of consistency, we provide evidence that the likelihood of having theory-consistent expectations with respect to the Phillips curve and the Taylor rule falls during recessions and with inflation higher than 2%. Moreover, consistency with respect to all three concepts is affected by changes in the communication policy of the Fed, where the strongest positive effect on consistency comes from the introduction of the official inflation target. Finally, we show that consumers with theory-consistent expectations have lower absolute inflation forecast errors and are closer to professionals' inflation forecasts.

     
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    hdl: 10419/102961
    Schriftenreihe: KOF working papers / KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich ; 345
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  17. Are consumer expectations theory-consistent?
    the role of macroeconomic determinants and central bank communication
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Research, Tilburg

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion Paper / CentER for Economic Research ; 2013-063
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (33 S.), graph. Darst.
  18. Consumer attitudes and the epidemiology of inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Research, Tilburg

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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion Paper / CentER for Economic Research ; 2014-029
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Konsumentenverhalten; Kaufentscheidung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.
  19. Consumer attitudes and the epidemiology of inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Bank of Canada, Ottawa

    This paper studies the formation of consumers' inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socioeconomic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education,... mehr

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    This paper studies the formation of consumers' inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socioeconomic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households' financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties, pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, or expectations that income will go down in the future have considerably higher forecast errors, are further away from professional forecasts, and have a stronger upward bias in their expectations than other households. However, their bias shrinks by more than that of the average household in response to increasing media reporting about inflation.

     
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    hdl: 10419/103032
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / Bank of Canada ; 2014-28
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Konsumentenverhalten; Kaufentscheidung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (III, 35 S.), graph. Darst.
  20. Consumers' attitudes and their inflation expectations
    Autor*in: Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Div. of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2015,015
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Konsumentenverhalten; Kaufentscheidung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (30 S.), graph. Darst.
  21. Are survey expectations theory-consistent?
    the role of central bank communication and news
    Autor*in: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Div. of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2015,035
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (46 S.), graph. Darst.
  22. Endogenous labor supply in an estimated new-Keynesian model
    nominal versus real rigidities
    Autor*in: Cairo, Isabel; Chung, Hess; Ferrante, Francesco; Fuentes-Albero, Cristina; Morales-Jimenez, Camilo; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 412
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    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2023, 069
    Schlagworte: search and matching; labor supply; labor force participation; missing disinflation; Great Recession
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy
    Autor*in: Noussair, Charles; Pfajfar, Damjan; Zsiros, Janos
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Div. of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2014,93
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (26 S.)
  24. Policy shocks and wage rigidities
    empirical evidence from regional effects of national shocks
    Autor*in: Ridder, Maarten de; Pfajfar, Damjan
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 123 (2017,17)
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Cambridge-INET working paper series ; no: 2017, 06
    Cambridge working papers in economics ; 1717
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation
    Autor*in: Pfajfar, Damjan; Ẑakelj, Blaẑ
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Center for Economic Research, Tilburg

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    VS 37 (2009.7)
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion Paper / CentER for Economic Research ; 2009,7
    Schlagworte: Inflationserwartung; Lernprozess; Experiment; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Preisrigidität; Neoklassische Synthese; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (56 S.), graph. Darst.