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  1. Dynamic macroeconomic implications of immigration
    Autor*in: Olovsson, Conny; Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
    Erschienen: October 2021
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    International immigration ‡ows are large, volatile and have recently increased. This paper is the first to study the dynamic effects of immigration shocks on the economy within a search and matching framework. Since the microdata indicates that some... mehr

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    International immigration ‡ows are large, volatile and have recently increased. This paper is the first to study the dynamic effects of immigration shocks on the economy within a search and matching framework. Since the microdata indicates that some of the key macroeconomic effects of immigration are largest in the short run, a steady state analysis would be insufficient. To construct a quantitatively relevant general equilibrium framework, we use extensive Swedish microdata. We then study the effect of a large immigration shock on various macroeconomic aggregates. Due to compositional effects, there is a substantial negative effect on GDP per capita and the employment rate on impact that then decreases over time.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251303
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 405
    Schlagworte: Immigration; dynamics; search and matching
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Directed technical change as a response to natural-resource scarcity
    Autor*in: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: July 2019
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    How do markets economize on scarce natural resources? With an application to fossil energy, we emphasize technological change aimed at saving on the scarce resource. We develop quantitative macroeconomic theory as a tool for interpreting the past and... mehr

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    How do markets economize on scarce natural resources? With an application to fossil energy, we emphasize technological change aimed at saving on the scarce resource. We develop quantitative macroeconomic theory as a tool for interpreting the past and thinking about the future. We argue, first, that aggregate U.S. data calls for a short-run substitution elasticity between energy and the capital/labor inputs that is near Leontief. Given this fact and an aggregate CES function, we note that energy-saving technical change took off right as the oil shocks hit in the 1970s. We rationalize this observation using a theory that views technical change as directed: it can be used to save on different inputs and, hence, the long-run substitutability between inputs becomes higher than Leontief. For our application, we estimate long-run dependence on fossil energy - measured by its factor share - to climb to a little below 10%; absent endogenous technical change directed toward energy-saving, it would go to 100%.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/215453
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 375
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Financial markets and green innovation
    Autor*in: Aghion, Philippe; Boneva, Lena; Breckenfelder, Johannes; Laeven, Luc; Olovsson, Conny; Popov, Alexander; Rancoita, Elena
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Fulfilling the commitments embedded in the Paris Agreement requires a climate-technology revolution. Patented innovation of low-carbon technologies is lower in the EU than in selected peers, and very heterogeneous across member states. We motivate... mehr

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    Fulfilling the commitments embedded in the Paris Agreement requires a climate-technology revolution. Patented innovation of low-carbon technologies is lower in the EU than in selected peers, and very heterogeneous across member states. We motivate this fact with an endogenous model of directed technical change with government policy and financial markets. Variations in carbon taxes, R&D investment, and venture capital investment explain a large share of the variation in green patents per capita in the data. We discuss implications for policy, concluding that governments can play a catalytic role in stimulating green innovation while the role of central banks is limited.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289952705
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/269093
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no 2686 (July 2022)
    Schlagworte: Climate change; financial markets; directed technical change; public policy; centralbanks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Energy-saving technical change
    Autor*in: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: [2015]
    Verlag:  CFM, Centre for Macroeconomics, London

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    Schriftenreihe: CFM discussion paper series ; CFM-DP 2015, 29 (November 2015)
    Schlagworte: Energieeinsparung; Technischer Fortschritt; CES-Produktionsfunktion; Faktorsubstitution; Energie; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The climate and the economy
    Autor*in: Breckenfelder, Johannes; Maćkowiak, Bartosz; Marqués Ibáñez, David; Olovsson, Conny; Popov, Alexander; Porcellacchia, Davide; Schepens, Glenn
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It... mehr

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    Climate change and the public policies to arrest it are and will continue reshaping the global economy. This Discussion Paper draws on economic research to identify some key medium- and long-run economic implications of these developments. It explores implications for growth, innovation, inflation, financial markets, fiscal policy, and several socio-economic outcomes. The main message that emerges is that climate change will cause income divergence across individuals, sectors, and regions, adjustment in energy markets, increased inflation variability, financial markets stress, intensified innovation, increased migration, and rising public debt. These challenges appear manageable for EU member states, especially under an early and orderly transition scenario. At the same time, the direction, scope, and speed of economic transformation is subject to large uncertainty due to two separate factors: the wide range of climate scenarios for a given trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and the exact policy path governments choose, especially in the context of the ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    ISBN: 9789289959896
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278382
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2793 (March 2023)
    Discussion papers
    Schlagworte: Climate change; growth; inflation; financial markets; socio-economic implications
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The consequences of uncertainty
    climate sensitivity and economic sensitivity to the climate
    Autor*in: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: March 2019
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources - two fossil fuels and "green energy" - and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate... mehr

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    We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources - two fossil fuels and "green energy" - and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing on uncertainty explicitly, we look at extreme scenarios defined by the upper and lower limits given in available studies in the literature. We compare optimal policy with laissez faire and we point to the possible policy errors that could arise. By far the largest policy error arises when the climate policy is "overly passive"; "overly zealous" climate policy (i.e., a high carbon tax applied when climate change and its negative on the economy are very limited) does not hurt the economy much as there is considerable substitutability between fossil and non-fossil energy sources.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/215447
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 369
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Manufacturing decline and house price volatility
    Autor*in: Hull, Isaiah; Olovsson, Conny; Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
    Erschienen: September 2018
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    Using a unique dataset of all Swedish housing transactions over the 2009-2017 period, we find that an increase in manufacturing's share of employment is positively associated with house price growth volatility and negatively associated with... mehr

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    Using a unique dataset of all Swedish housing transactions over the 2009-2017 period, we find that an increase in manufacturing's share of employment is positively associated with house price growth volatility and negatively associated with risk-adjusted housing returns. Both effects appear to be related to manufacturing's impact on firm concentration and employment volatility. Moreover, as we demonstrate in an application, our results have implications for portfolio choice. They also suggest that the manufacturing decline since 1970 could account for a 32% reduction in house price volatility in Sweden, and similar reductions in the U.S., U.K., and Japan.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/215438
    Auflage/Ausgabe: revised July 2019
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 349
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten)
  8. The granular origins of house price volatility
    Autor*in: Hull, Isaiah; Olovsson, Conny; Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
    Erschienen: December 2017
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    Recent work has shown that microeconomic shocks at the firm and sector level account for a substantial share of output volatility. We examine whether this relationship holds for house price growth volatility, which also declined during the Great... mehr

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    Recent work has shown that microeconomic shocks at the firm and sector level account for a substantial share of output volatility. We examine whether this relationship holds for house price growth volatility, which also declined during the Great Moderation and increased after 2001. Using a novel dataset of all property transactions in Sweden over the 2009-2017 period, we demonstrate that the following are positively associated with house price growth volatility: 1) the employment, income, and output shares of a volatile sector (manufacturing); 2) employment growth volatility; and 3) exposure to idiosyncratic shocks to firms.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/189949
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 349
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
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  9. Energy-saving technical change
    Autor*in: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: 2012

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    Schriftenreihe: NBER working paper series ; 18456
    Schlagworte: Energieeinsparung; Technischer Fortschritt; CES-Produktionsfunktion; Faktorsubstitution; Energie; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: 40 S., graph. Darst.
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  10. Energy-saving technical change
    Autor*in: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: 2012
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 9177
    Schlagworte: Energieeinsparung; Technischer Fortschritt; CES-Produktionsfunktion; Faktorsubstitution; Energie; Schätzung; USA
    Umfang: 40 S., graph. Darst.
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  11. Greenflation?
    Autor*in: Olovsson, Conny; Vestin, David
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    What are the real and nominal implications of a green transition to a state with sustainable energy production, and how should monetary policy react during such transition? Using a New-Keynesian model with an energy and a goods sector, we show that a... mehr

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    What are the real and nominal implications of a green transition to a state with sustainable energy production, and how should monetary policy react during such transition? Using a New-Keynesian model with an energy and a goods sector, we show that a green transition requires the relative price of energy to increase and the relative price of goods, the marginal cost of production, and the real wage to fall. We prove analytically that if energy is not used in production and nominal wages and goods prices are rigid, a flexible energy price and a monetary policy rule that sees through energy-price changes are sufficient for replicating the flex-price economy. If energy is used in production there will be deviations from efficiency but because energy's share of income is small, these deviations are marginal unless the increase in the carbon tax is aggressive and/or monetary policy ill suited. During the green transition, it is optimal for monetary policy to see through the increasing energy prices and focus on core inflation. The result is a modest increase in CPI.

     
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    Auflage/Ausgabe: updated May 2023
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 420
    Schlagworte: Inflation; green transition; monetary policy; climate change
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Optimal taxation with home production
    Autor*in: Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    Optimal taxes for Europe and the U.S. are derived in a realistically calibrated model in which agents buy consumption goods and services and use home capital and labor to produce household services. The optimal tax rate on services is substantially... mehr

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    Optimal taxes for Europe and the U.S. are derived in a realistically calibrated model in which agents buy consumption goods and services and use home capital and labor to produce household services. The optimal tax rate on services is substantially lower than the tax rate on goods. Specifically, the planner cannot tax home production directly and instead lowers the tax rate on market services to increase the relative price of home production. The optimal tax rate on the return to home capital is strictly positive and the welfare gains from switching to optimal taxes are large.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/129699
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 284
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (39 S.), graph. Darst.
  13. Fuel for economic growth?
    Autor*in: Gars, Johan; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    We set up an endogenous growth model in which the efficiency of both capital and fossil energy can be improved, whereas the efficiency of one alternative energy source is limited. With capital and energy as complements, there exist two steady states:... mehr

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    We set up an endogenous growth model in which the efficiency of both capital and fossil energy can be improved, whereas the efficiency of one alternative energy source is limited. With capital and energy as complements, there exist two steady states: one stagnant where energy is fully derived from the alternative energy source, and one with balanced growth where energy is fully sourced from fossil fuel. Heterogeneity in initial TFP levels can generate the Great Divergence. The demand for fossil fuel in technologically advanced countries drives up its price and makes fossil fuel too costly in less advanced countries that choose the alternative and stagnant energy input.

     
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    hdl: 10419/129716
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 299
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (44 S.), graph. Darst.
  14. Oil prices in a real-business-cycle model with precautionary demand for oil
    Autor*in: Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: November 2016
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    This paper analyzes the interaction between oil prices and macroeconomic outcomes by incorporating oil as an input in production alongside a precautionary motive for holding oil in a real-business-cycle model. The driving forces are factor-specific... mehr

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    This paper analyzes the interaction between oil prices and macroeconomic outcomes by incorporating oil as an input in production alongside a precautionary motive for holding oil in a real-business-cycle model. The driving forces are factor-specific technology shocks and supply shocks that can be imprecisely forecasted by noisy news shock. These shocks explain most of the U.S. business cycle as well as the empirical distribution of oil prices. Oil shocks are mainly driven by increasing precautionary/smoothing demand, but supply shocks contribute substantially to both the oil-price volatility and the magnitude of oil shocks mainly through their effect on oil reserves.

     
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    hdl: 10419/189932
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 332
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. International business cycles
    quantifying the effects of a world market for oil
    Autor*in: Gars, Johan; Olovsson, Conny
    Erschienen: May 2017
    Verlag:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    To what extent is the international business cycle affected by the fact that an essential input (oil) is traded on the world market? We quantify the contribution of oil by setting up a model with separate shocks to efficiencies of capital/labor and... mehr

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    To what extent is the international business cycle affected by the fact that an essential input (oil) is traded on the world market? We quantify the contribution of oil by setting up a model with separate shocks to efficiencies of capital/labor and oil, as well as global shocks to the oil supply. We find that the shocks to the supply and the efficiency of oil both contribute to positive comovements. These two shocks are also relatively transitory, which induces high responses in output and low responses in consumption. As a consequence, the model resolves both the consumption correlation puzzle and the international comovement puzzle.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/189940
    Schriftenreihe: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 340
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen