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  1. Avaliando os efeitos da política fiscal no Brasil
    resultados de um procedimento de identificação agnóstica
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto; Sachisda, Adolfo
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Inst. de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    This article investigates the effects of fiscal policy shock in the Brazilian economy using quarterly data during the period between January/1995 and December/2007. We follow the agnostic procedure suggested by Mountford and Uhlig (2005) to verify... mehr

    Standort:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 194 (1377)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This article investigates the effects of fiscal policy shock in the Brazilian economy using quarterly data during the period between January/1995 and December/2007. We follow the agnostic procedure suggested by Mountford and Uhlig (2005) to verify separately the impact of the unexpected positive impulse of current government spending and the net public revenues on some economic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) and price index. The main advantages of this method regard it allows to isolate the fiscal impulse from the movements that comes from business cycle and the management of monetary policy. We find that in response of an expansionary shock of public expenditures the private consumption increases surely. It can indicate that there is some kind of crowding out effect with a reduction of private investment because the GDP contemporaneous decreases with 77.1 percent probability. The GDP reacts negatively with 56.6 percent probability immediately after a positive shock of the public net revenues. But in long run the probability of this response to be positive rises strongly.With 76.1 percent probability the private consumption decreases after this shock.Finally, another distinctive feature of the agnostic identification used in this paper pertains to the assessment the business cycle and monetary shock. With a 70.0 percent probability the real GDP decreases immediately after a contractionary monetary shock on the Selic rate and this effect is negative and very persistent. Further, the most likely path of the price index (IPCA) indicates a drop of 0.4 percent in this variable during the first five months after a monetary shock. Considering the business cycle, government spending is not countercyclical in a view that during an economic boom the endogenous response of expenditure of government is positive.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91365
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ; 1377
    Schlagworte: Finanzpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Brasilien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (23 S.), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  2. Avaliando a condição da política fiscal no Brasil
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto; Sachsida, Adolfo
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Inst. de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    This article estimates the stance of fiscal policy using the framework of conditional forecasting to evaluate the stance in Brazil since 1997. This indicator is measured as the deviation of forecast of the output gap conditional to the observed... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 194 (1409)
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    This article estimates the stance of fiscal policy using the framework of conditional forecasting to evaluate the stance in Brazil since 1997. This indicator is measured as the deviation of forecast of the output gap conditional to the observed values and steady-state values of the instruments of fiscal policy-the current government spending and the net tax. Our results indicate that fiscal stance has been neutral since 2004 but expansionary after 2007. There is no statistical evidence that fiscal policy is putting pressure on the inflation but there does exist statistical evidence that it has negatively affected the output gap.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91061
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ; 1409
    Schlagworte: Finanzpolitik; Brasilien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (27 S.), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  3. Inflação, desemprego e choques cambiais
    novas evidências para o Brasil
    Autor*in: Sachsida, Adolfo; Mendonça, Mario Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  CEPAL, Brasília, DF

    We estimate the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Besides panel data, we estimate the Phillips curve by time series methodology, including Bayesian techniques and Smoothing Transition Regressions (STR) model. The... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We estimate the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Besides panel data, we estimate the Phillips curve by time series methodology, including Bayesian techniques and Smoothing Transition Regressions (STR) model. The econometric results show three important conclusions: a) we test and confirm the Blanchard and Gali (2007) restrictions over the sum of the coefficients associated with inflation; b) the coefficient associated to the expectation of inflation is greater than the coefficient associated with past inflation (which is in contrast with previous studies to the Brazilian economy); and c) in the short-run both the unemployment rate and the exchange rate shock are not important determinants of current inflation.

     
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    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91375
    Schriftenreihe: Textos para discussao CEPAL - IPEA ; 1661
    Schlagworte: Phillips-Kurve; Wechselkurs; Schock; Zeitreihenanalyse; Brasilien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 39 S., 617 KB), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  4. Um modelo econométrico para a previsão de impostos no Brasil
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  Inst. de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília, DF

    The goal of this article is to model the desagregated series of taxes in Brazil. We use monthly data of a sample of taxes in charge for 80% of the Brazilian gross tax burden in the 1995-2010 years. For estimate the model we employ a Dynamic Linear... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 194 (1676)
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    The goal of this article is to model the desagregated series of taxes in Brazil. We use monthly data of a sample of taxes in charge for 80% of the Brazilian gross tax burden in the 1995-2010 years. For estimate the model we employ a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) with variable parameter (WEST e HARRISON, 1997). The choice of this particular model was motivated by the constant changes made in the Brazilian tax system during these years. The forecast is performed a year ahead out of the sample. The main conclusions of the paper are the following. In general the results seem strongly satisfactory. The forecasts fall inside the error bands and the predicted error is bellow of 10% until six steps ahead. Above this horizon the forecast lose efficiency. Although for some taxes the model performed quite well, further efforts are required for others. Finally, for the majority of taxes the elasticity appears to have fluctuated below the unity.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91481
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão ; 1676
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 48 S., 1,31 MB), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  5. Um modelo econométrico com parâmetros variáveis para a carga tributária bruta brasileira trimestral
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Santos, Claudio Hamilton Matos dos; Medrano, Luis Alberto
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Inst. de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    This article presents a linear econometric model with variable coefficients for the analysis of the quarterly dynamics of the Brazilian gross tax burden in the 1995-2008 years.The choice of this particular model was motivated by the constant changes... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 194 (1439)
    Fernleihe:
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    This article presents a linear econometric model with variable coefficients for the analysis of the quarterly dynamics of the Brazilian gross tax burden in the 1995-2008 years.The choice of this particular model was motivated by the constant changes made in the Brazilian tax system during these years - most frequently in the scope, design, and size of pre-existing taxes, but once in a while also the elimination of some of these taxes and/or the creation of new ones. The main conclusions of the paper are that: (i) GDP is, quite certainly, the main explanatory variable of the dynamics of the quarterly tax burden during the period in question; (ii) the share of the quarterly Brazilian tax burden that does not depend on GDP (or on any other variable, for that matter) increased quite significantly during the latter period - possibly due to continuous improvements on the ability of the Brazilian government to raise tax revenues and/or increases in the size of the economy´s formal sector; and (iii) the GDP-elasticity of the Brazilian tax burden appears to have fluctuated around values well below unity, contrarily to what estimates based on models with constant coefficients would lead us to believe.

     
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    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91041
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ; 1439
    Schlagworte: Steuerbelastung; Brasilien; Brasilien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  6. Avaliando o efeito de um choque de política monetária sobre o mercado imobiliário
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto; Sachsida, Adolfo
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  Inst. de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília, DF

    This article investigates the effects of monetary policy shock in the Brazilian real state market using structural VAR through the period June/2000 to August/2010. The identification is done following the agnostic procedure suggested by Uhlig (2005).... mehr

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 194 (1631)
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    This article investigates the effects of monetary policy shock in the Brazilian real state market using structural VAR through the period June/2000 to August/2010. The identification is done following the agnostic procedure suggested by Uhlig (2005). The mains results are: The stock of credit to finance housing points out a drop of 2% immediately after and the industrial output of civil construction decreases strongly after this contractionary shock.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/91334
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão ; 1631
    Schlagworte: Geldpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Immobilienmarkt; Brasilien
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 30 S., 922 KB), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache
  7. Um modelo de combinação de previsões para arrecadação de receita tributária no Brasil
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto
    Erschienen: março de 2016
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília - DF

    This study aimed to the application of forecasts combination of model to predict tax revenues in Brazil. Here we combine the predictions obtained from three models: dynamic factor model (DFM), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 194 (2186)
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    This study aimed to the application of forecasts combination of model to predict tax revenues in Brazil. Here we combine the predictions obtained from three models: dynamic factor model (DFM), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) and model of Holt-Winters smoothing. We adopted five criteria for combine predictions: optimal combination, performance, simple regression, simple average and median. We work with monthly data for a total of nine federal taxes for the period from January 2001 to December 2013. The out of sample forecast are done for the year 2014. Considering the results, it can be seen that the combined predictions proved generally superior to those derived from genuine models with the exception of a few taxes. Notwithstanding there is no specific method of combination that provide better forecasts concern the others.

     
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    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/144622
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2186
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Aplicação do modelo fatorial dinâmico para previsão da receita tributária no Brasil
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Medrano, Luis Alberto
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  IPEA, Brasília, DF

    This article aims to estimate the dynamic factor model for prediction tax receipts in Brazil using monthly data for the period 2001-2013. The factorial model allows to reduce the dimensionality of the high number of taxes taking into account the... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 194 (2064)
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    This article aims to estimate the dynamic factor model for prediction tax receipts in Brazil using monthly data for the period 2001-2013. The factorial model allows to reduce the dimensionality of the high number of taxes taking into account the information contained in the existing interrelations between them and allowing to identify only the relevant information through the variables named factors. Further, in our model the seasonal component of the series of taxes is treated endogenously. This procedure permits to obtain better data fitting and more reliable predictions - once seasonality is a hallmark of certain series of tributes. We confront the predictions of the factorial model with those generated by linear dynamic model applied to each tribute separately and found that the factor model brings considerable gains in terms of efficiency and prediction.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Portugiesisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/121689
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada ; 2064
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (42 S.), graph. Darst.
    Bemerkung(en):

    Zsfassung in engl. Sprache