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  1. Bayesian gravity model for digitalization on bilateral trade integration in Asia
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    The impact of globalization in terms of bilateral trade is a renowned theoretical underpinning in the literature. Nevertheless, testing a trade integration model of bilateral trade is not sufficiently well estimated with the Bayesian approach to... mehr

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    Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches öffentliches Recht und Völkerrecht, Bibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 188
    keine Fernleihe

     

    The impact of globalization in terms of bilateral trade is a renowned theoretical underpinning in the literature. Nevertheless, testing a trade integration model of bilateral trade is not sufficiently well estimated with the Bayesian approach to provide pragmatic evidence of trade integration from the digitalization in Asia. Moreover, in identifying the factors determining trade integration, testing for digitization using the Bayesian gravity equation is vital. After performing a series of simulation experiments, a relationship between import volume and simulated trade determinants was predicted for the digitalized trade model. The results of the estimated coefficients on GDP in the country of origin and GDP of the country of destination are positively significant predictors of the import growth. The distance between the countries has a negatively significant estimation that implies barriers in trade. The model predicts trade integration, especially towards the trade digitalization in Asia. The Bayesian approach of the gravity model gives robust estimates for determining the impact factor for the importation of trading countries, including the fact that the elasticities of total trade inflow with respect to distance, population, and area of the country of destination and the exchange rate of the country of origin are negative while the proxies of digitization are positively significant. Further, economic size, area, and exchange rate of the destination, and population and area of the country of origin are positively predicted by the model. The estimated parameters are directly the elasticities, in which increases in GDP in a reporter country is consistent with the higher import volumes. Further, evidence of the gravity equation is used for understanding trade potential, and after some integrations, the estimation is applied for the real trade. The measures of bilateral trade resistance or costs associated with the trade flow of the digitization has influenced the expanding of the digital indicators in the model in the Asian economies. Finally, digitalization of trade integration can be implemented across Asia with evidence and robust estimates of the gravity model, including robustness checking. The Bayesian experiment for the estimation of the impacts of the trade integration in Asia predicts an increase of GDP, digitalization proxies, population, exchange rate, and area of the destination as predominant predictors in the Bayesian gravity model. Thus, the results revealed that digitalization has affected the plausible trade agreements for trade integration in Asia.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/238589
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1232 (March 2021)
    Schlagworte: Bayesian gravity model; digitization; import growth; trade integration
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten)
  2. Impact of climate change on sovereign risk in Asia
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    More than at any time in the history, climate change is having an increasingly unprecedented effect on human lives. Economies are affected severely in terms of sovereign risk due to climate change variations influencing the macroeconomy. Asian... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 188
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    More than at any time in the history, climate change is having an increasingly unprecedented effect on human lives. Economies are affected severely in terms of sovereign risk due to climate change variations influencing the macroeconomy. Asian countries are highly susceptible to economic downturn due to the consequences of climate change. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationships between sovereign risk and climate change in all Asian countries. Controlling for a range of macroeconomic and financial drivers of sovereign bond spreads, the paper applied a Panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to identify the effects of climate change on the sovereign risk. The Panel l ARDL included the pooled mean group (PMG) regression, mean group (MG) estimation, and dynamic fixed effects (DFE) regression for estimating the macroeconomic impacts. The results show that, in the long run, the DFE model, which was selected as the best model for all Asian countries, provides evidence for the existence of a cointegration relationship. These findings have implications for policymakers, both from a fiscal sustainability perspective and with regard to the influence of exposure to climate change.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
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    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1358 (February 2023)
    Schlagworte: climate change; sovereign risk; Panel ARDL; Asia
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Impact of social safeguarding on private land ownership and individual well-being
    the case of Sri Lanka
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    Infrastructure development with properly planned safeguard measures is essential from the sustainable development perspective for the economic development in developing countries. The paper intends to identify the potential of social safeguard... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 188
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    Infrastructure development with properly planned safeguard measures is essential from the sustainable development perspective for the economic development in developing countries. The paper intends to identify the potential of social safeguard policies for the sustainable transport sector within the National Highway Sector Project (NHSP) in Sri Lanka. The objective of the paper is to provide pragmatic evidence on sustainable infrastructure development strategies in terms of social safeguards, measuring the outcomes and impacts of the road rehabilitation on affected people. From a household survey carried out along the road sections of the NHSP, including affected and non-affected groups, the empirical analysis entailed quasi-experimental evaluation of difference-in-difference (DID) estimation while measuring the impact of safeguard measures on the improvement of livelihoods and living standards. Qualitative information, using a mixed method of evaluation, supplemented the quantitative results. The results revealed that the income level for the treated and control groups is not significant, but further analysis highlighted that the estimated result for the income level in the DID approach is significant. This indicates that the safeguard policies over time for the members of the treated group are effective and efficient in the restoration of their income sources and increase people's income significantly. This leads to the implication that the safeguard policies increase the sustainability of the affected persons' livelihood and living standards. Qualitatively, the lessons learned through the impact evaluation study are that ADB's policy principles on consultation, disclosure, and grievance redress mechanisms include land for land and address wider social dimensions for sustainable infrastructure development. Further, the Country Safeguard System (CCS) achieves sustainability in social safeguards for involuntary resettlement equivalent to the involuntary resettlement CSS with ADB's SPS, acceptability of implementation readiness, reaching the affected poor and vulnerable, and livelihood programs. Finally, the major deliberation can concern green finance for infrastructure development projects integrating the pre-planned and strong social safeguard system in the implementing countries.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/222815
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1048 (December 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  4. Growth slowdowns, middle-income trap, and demographic profile in South Asia
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    The middle-income trap (MIT) is a scenario of rapidly growing economies that experience sudden stops and ultimately lead to stagnation at the middle-income level. Economic growth depends on changes in the demographics of a country. Conversely, the... mehr

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 188 (736)
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    The middle-income trap (MIT) is a scenario of rapidly growing economies that experience sudden stops and ultimately lead to stagnation at the middle-income level. Economic growth depends on changes in the demographics of a country. Conversely, the demographic change in economic growth has both positive and negative relationships in the literature. Further, testing a neoclassical model of economic growth is not adequately estimated in the field of demographic and growth slowdowns in South Asia. Therefore, the study uses panel data for understanding the structural change in the demographic changes of South Asian economies. The main approach in middle-income trap literature - the growth slowdowns approach - is used in assessing the MIT fitted into the neoclassical model. The unit root test with a structural break is used for identifying the growth slowdowns. Through this specific approach the current paper is devoted to validating the existence of growth slowdown, hence the middle-income trap. Exploiting Eichengreen, Perkins and Shin (2011, 2013) methodology and adjusting it in order to fit for the South Asian countries, this study identifies numerous slowdown episodes from 1960 to 2014. Thus, a probit model with several indicators is examined to identify which specific factors increase or reduce the likelihood of growth slowdown episodes and consequently drive South Asia into stagnation. The determinants of growth slowdown are: significant negative factors, GDP per capita, lagged growth, trade openness, investment share, demographic profile, and FDI. Further, the study revealed that the demographic transition factors are: fertility rate, dependency ratio, young dependency, labor force, demographic profile, and population density.

     

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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/163235
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 736 (May 2017)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Growth empirics
    structural transformation and sectoral interdependencies of Sri Lanka
    Erschienen: [2017]
    Verlag:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    Even though the impacts of the globalization on economic growth and structural changes are inevitable, many developing countries are slowly transformed in the process. This paper examines the impact of structural transformation of Sri Lanka's economy... mehr

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 188 (728)
    keine Fernleihe

     

    Even though the impacts of the globalization on economic growth and structural changes are inevitable, many developing countries are slowly transformed in the process. This paper examines the impact of structural transformation of Sri Lanka's economy on sectoral interdependencies to provide evidence for policy making. It advocates policies, investigating the relationship among agricultural, industrial, and service-related gross domestic products (GDPs) under (i) an open economic policy setting, (ii) different government policy regimes, and (iii) major policy eras from 1950 to 2015. The analysis uses secondary data from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Institute of Policy Studies publications. A time-series econometric method, vector autoregression, was used including causality analysis, and Gregory-Hansen cointegration, for estimating a long-run relationship in sectoral growth. The empirical investigations revealed an existence of unidirectional causality toward agricultural to industrial GDP, and bidirectional causality between agricultural and service GDPs in terms of Sri Lanka's economy. The effect of Gregory-Hansen co-integration affirmed a long-run nexus in agricultural growth positively with industrial and service growth. Apart from that, the evidence of structural change through open economic policies depicted a significant impact between pre-open economic and post-open economic policies for a drastic economic growth even under structural break. Although none of the policy regimes have prejudiced economic growth, reforms can be initiated to ascertain the revival of economic growth, and promoting service sector-related economic systems are desirable with reforming policies.

     

    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/163226
    Schriftenreihe: ADBI working paper series ; no. 728 (April 2017)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen