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  1. Forecasting inflation in Argentina
    Autor*in: Garegnani, María Lorena; Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano
    Erschienen: June 2018
    Verlag:  Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), [Washington, DC]

    In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables is crucial for making pertinent corrections in order to reach the desired policy... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 144 (891)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    In 2016 the Central Bank of Argentina began to announce inflation targets. In this context, providing authorities with good estimates of relevant macroeconomic variables is crucial for making pertinent corrections in order to reach the desired policy goals. This paper develops a group of models to forecast inflation for Argentina, which includes autoregressive models and different scale Bayesian VARs (BVAR), and compares their relative accuracy. The results show that the BVAR model can improve the forecast ability of the univariate autoregressive benchmark’s model of inflation. The Giacomini-White test indicates that a BVAR performs better than the benchmark in all forecast horizons. Statistical differences between the two BVAR model specifications (small and large-scale) are not found. However, looking at the RMSEs, one can see that the larger model seems to perform better for longer forecast horizons.

     
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    46
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208111
    Schriftenreihe: IDB working paper series ; no. IDB-WP-891
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  2. La dinámica de los préstamos de consumo en 2020 en Argentina
    una aproximación mediante modelos de corrección de error
    Autor*in: Gómez Aguirre, Maximiliano; Krysa, Ariel
    Erschienen: Enero de 2022
    Verlag:  ie, BCRA, Investigaciones Económicas, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina

    With the aim of quantifying the effect of the decrease in interest rates on consumer loans (both credit cards and personal loans, in local currency to the non-financial private sector) in Argentina between March and December 2020, monthly error... mehr

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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 251
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    With the aim of quantifying the effect of the decrease in interest rates on consumer loans (both credit cards and personal loans, in local currency to the non-financial private sector) in Argentina between March and December 2020, monthly error correction models are estimated, and counterfactual scenarios are developed for each of the credit lines. The sample that is used includes the period 2004-2020 and the determinants are the corresponding interest rates and economic activity measures. As an alternative case, it is assumed that interest rates would have been fixed in 2020 at the values of February that year and/or that the parameters of elasticities that operated in the consumer credit markets were those associated with the pre-COVID-19 context. The counterfactual scenarios implemented within the econometric models suggest that the decline in the interest rate would have cushioned, with different magnitudes throughout 2020, the fall caused by effects of the pandemic both in the credit cards and personal loans real balances.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Spanisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249243
    Schriftenreihe: Documentos de trabajo / ie, BCRA, Investigaciones Económicas ; n. 98 (2022)
    Schlagworte: Verbraucherkredit; Revolvierender Kredit; Kreditzins; Coronavirus; Argentinien; consumption credit; COVID-19 crisis; Argentina; credit cards; personal loans
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen