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  1. Antecipação fiscal, não fundamentalidade e não causalidade no Brasil
    Autor*in: Borelli, Luan; Vonbun, Christian; Góes, Geraldo Sandoval
    Erschienen: setembro de 2021
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal... mehr

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    So far, there are very few papers concerning the problems of non causality and non-fundamentalness in fiscal studies. This is even truer for Brazil. Non causality and non fundamentalness are econometric problems that are specially relevant in fiscal studies, as they are relate to fiscal foresight, a natural phenomenon in fiscal studies. Fiscal foresight is the ability, by market participants, to forecast and preview government expenditures before they effectively happen. This happens because of the legal bureaucracy that commands fiscal expenditures and tax collection. The present paper fulfills part of this gap by presenting and discussing those issues and by treating such a problem reported in Brazilian data. We estimate a non causal VAR with Brazilian typical data and compare its forecasts to a regular causal VAR, using the same data found to be non-fundamental by Vonbun and Lima (2020). The results suggest that expectations may have a role in the determination of the effects fiscal policy, as the non causal VAR has shown substantially better predictive ability than the regular causal VAR for that dataset.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249217
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2699
    Schlagworte: fiscal policy; VAR; macroeconometrics; fundamentalness; forecasting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 90 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Um panorama do trabalho remoto no Brasil e nos estados brasileiros durante a pandemia da Covid-19
    Autor*in: Góes, Geraldo Sandoval; Martins, Felipe dos Santos; Nascimento, José Antônio Sena
    Erschienen: outubro de 2021
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    This study investigates the potential and effective remote work in Brazil in 2020. Using information from the Continuous PNAD and methodology developed in the international literature and adapted for the country, the potential of occupations that can... mehr

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    This study investigates the potential and effective remote work in Brazil in 2020. Using information from the Continuous PNAD and methodology developed in the international literature and adapted for the country, the potential of occupations that can be carried out remotely is estimated. Added to this, based on the PNAD Covid-19 for different months, a portrait of the profile of the person effectively exercising their labor activity is constructed remotely due to the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil. Furthermore, a model is estimated identifying the main components correlated to home office. The results show that although about a fifth of the workers are in occupations that can be performed remotely, just over 10% actually worked remotely. Finally, the study points out that education is the individual variable most correlated with the probability of remote work in the country.

     
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    hdl: 10419/249218
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2700
    Schlagworte: home office; labor market; covid-19 pandemic
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 102 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. A macroeconomia das epidemias: heterogeneidade interestadual no Brasil
    Autor*in: Borelli, Luan; Góes, Geraldo Sandoval
    Erschienen: agosto de 2020
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    Fixed Capital has a major role in economic growth literature and on the estimation of potential output using a production function - which is essential to design macroeconomic policy. One of the main contributions of this work, differently from the... mehr

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    Fixed Capital has a major role in economic growth literature and on the estimation of potential output using a production function - which is essential to design macroeconomic policy. One of the main contributions of this work, differently from the previous works, is to estimate the capital stock from a disaggregated perspective using Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) by product level throughout a detailed and historical treatment of the data from System of National Accounts (SNA). This methodology avoids distortions arise from changes in relative prices and changes in capital composition, capturing the real GFCF flows with precision and leading to better estimation of depreciation and net investment. In order to obtain a consistent and disaggregated time series of GFCF, it was necessary to adapt information from different methodologies obtained in the Supply and Uses Tables and in the Input-Output Tables (IO), as well as to use depreciation rates and life cycle in terms of products. At the end, annual estimates of the following variables were obtained for the period from 1947 to 2017: net fixed capital stock, net investment, investment rate, depreciation rate and capital/output ratio. Another contribution of this paper is the estimation of series with higher frequencies (quarterly and monthly), with data updated until 2019 and compatible with the SNA expanding the scope of application of the estimated series for short-run analysis.

     
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    hdl: 10419/240776
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2581
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; SIR-Modell; Regionalpolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Vergleich; Sao Paulo (Staat); Amazonas (Staat); Ceara (Staat); Rio de Janeiro (Staat); Pernambuco (Staat); Brasilien
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Deforestation and environmental policy
    a DSGE approach
    Autor*in: Pereira, Rodrigo Mendes; Góes, Geraldo Sandoval
    Erschienen: November 2019
    Verlag:  Ipea, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasília, DF, Brazil

    This paper proposes an environmental DSGE model with deforestation of a tropical rain forest. The forest can be used to produce goods, but it also affects the well-being of the representative individual. Environmental policy is implemented with the... mehr

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    This paper proposes an environmental DSGE model with deforestation of a tropical rain forest. The forest can be used to produce goods, but it also affects the well-being of the representative individual. Environmental policy is implemented with the taxation of the deforestation activity. We calibrate the model for the Brazilian economy, and show that it predicts a procyclical deforestation, and that a more stringent policy reduces the volatility of deforestation. Moreover, technological progress decreases the stock of forest, and it does so more intensely with a lenient environmental policy.

     
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    hdl: 10419/220333
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IPEA ; 247 (November 2019)
    Schlagworte: Umweltpolitik; Natürliche Ressourcen; Entwaldung; Forstwirtschaft; Naturschutz; Wirtschaft; Ökologie; Umweltschutz; Nachhaltigkeit; Ressourcenmanagement
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. O trabalho remoto potencial e efetivo no Brasil
    possíveis razões de um hiato elevado entre estes?
    Autor*in: Góes, Geraldo Sandoval; Martins, Felipe dos Santos; Nascimento, José Antônio Sena
    Erschienen: fevereiro de 2022
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    The main objective of this paper is to seek an explanation for the gap between the estimated remote work potential for Brazil and the remote work actually observed in the country. For this, at first, the teleworking potential is estimated based on... mehr

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    The main objective of this paper is to seek an explanation for the gap between the estimated remote work potential for Brazil and the remote work actually observed in the country. For this, at first, the teleworking potential is estimated based on the methodology of Dingel and Neiman (2020) applied to the Brazilian PNAD Contínua research based on the period prior to the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the research's second stage, this potential is compared with remote work measurement provided by the PNAD Covid-19 survey, which was carried out between May and November 2020. A potential and effective telework gap was found, and we sought to investigate its causes based on the first PNAD Contínua interviews conducted in 2019, which contains information on people's domicile. The results indicate that about a fifth of workers in occupations that can be performed remotely live-in households without the necessary means to be in a home office, such as a computer with internet access or even continuous electricity. With this, the potential for remote work in the country was reestimated considering these factors and it went from 22.7% to 16.7%, significantly closer to that observed in May 2020, whose percentage was 13.3%.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261053
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2738
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; remote work; labor market
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. A incidência da Covid-19 nos maiores municípios mineradores brasileiros
    Autor*in: Castro, Fernando Ferreira de; Góes, Geraldo Sandoval; Nascimento, José Antônio Sena; Tardin, Monica Monnerat
    Erschienen: dezembro de 2021
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    The Brazilian mineral industry has maintained a steady growth rate in recent years and despite the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected all economic activity sectors, mining performance showed significant growth in 2020, generating public... mehr

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    The Brazilian mineral industry has maintained a steady growth rate in recent years and despite the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected all economic activity sectors, mining performance showed significant growth in 2020, generating public revenues from mining royalties 35% higher than the previous year. One of the first measures the brazillian government took to deal with the pandemic was the determination of which activities came to be considered essential for sustaining the economy and guaranteeing the means to overcome the crisis, among which the mineral activity was considered. In order to present the Covid-19 panorama of contagion in the largest Brazilian mining municipalities and to point out those most at risk, the qualitative methodology of this research involved the survey of the municipal incidence rate of Covid-19 in the 133 largest mining municipalities, that were selected based on the annual collection of royalties above R$ 1 million in 2019. The evolution of the stock of jobs in the extractive industry was also monitored to determine the degree of its participation on the incidence of Covid-19, the maintenance of mineral activity during the pandemic and its relevance among the other economic sectors that were active in the selected municipalities. As a result, it was found that among the 133 selected mining municipalities, which account for 95.91% of the CFEM collected, 90 municipalities, representing 88.44% of the CFEM, can be considered affected by the pandemic, from which 23 municipalities present incidence rates considered very high and above the national average.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261036
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2721
    Schlagworte: Covid-19; mining; royalties; CFEM
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Minerais estratégicos e críticos
    uma visão internacional e da política mineral brasileira
    Autor*in: Castro, Fernando Ferreira de; Peiter, Carlos Cesar; Góes, Geraldo Sandoval
    Erschienen: maio de 2022
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brasília

    Mineral raw materials are at the base of economic activities at some stage of their production chains and will continue to be more and more in the future. Certain raw materials have specific features, because both the supply risk and their economic... mehr

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    Mineral raw materials are at the base of economic activities at some stage of their production chains and will continue to be more and more in the future. Certain raw materials have specific features, because both the supply risk and their economic importance vary between countries or economic blocs, and have been defined as "critical" due to uncertainties in their markets. In view of the global relevance of mineral goods, the objective of this discussion text is to present the current overview of the different international policies on critical and/or strategic minerals, adopted in China, the United States, the European Union, the main world consumers, comparing it with the progress in Brazilian studies and policies until the recent definition of the first list of strategic minerals in Brazil. Finally, a case of Brazilian niobium will be presented briefly, a strategic raw material for Brazil and critical mineral internationally. The adopted qualitative methodology is part of an extensive bibliographical and documental review in the context of geopolitics of raw materials, in order to present an overview of evaluation models and preparation of lists of critical and strategic raw materials in use, thus pointing out methodological alternatives to guide national policies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/265288
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2768
    Schlagworte: strategic minerals; critical raw materials; niobium; ST&I
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Metodologias para previsão de receitas tributárias no Brasil
    Autor*in: Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Góes, Geraldo Sandoval
    Erschienen: maio de 2020
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    The objective of this study is to perform an econometric modeling exercise of the individual series of taxes aiming to obtain income elasticity and the future projection for each tax. For this, we apply dynamic linear models (MLD) and dynamic factor... mehr

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    The objective of this study is to perform an econometric modeling exercise of the individual series of taxes aiming to obtain income elasticity and the future projection for each tax. For this, we apply dynamic linear models (MLD) and dynamic factor (MFD), both estimated based on the Bayesian approach. Our sample of taxes accounts for over 90% of the Brazilian tax burden, consisting of monthly data between December 2006 and May 2019. The forecast within the sample is made for the period of one year while the projection out of the sample is from June 2019 to June 2020. The results obtained corroborate the expectation regarding the adequacy of the methodologies used. The exercises for forecast validation showed excellent performance considering the various evaluation criteria. In particular, for most cases, the percentage accumulated error was below 4%; and in some cases the value obtained for this indicator was below 1%.

     
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    hdl: 10419/240755
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2560
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Os condicionantes do teletrabalho potencial no Brasil
    Autor*in: Góes, Geraldo Sandoval; Martins, Felipe dos Santos; Alves, Vinícius de Oliveira
    Erschienen: janeiro de 2023
    Verlag:  Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro

    This Discussion Paper aims to analyze the constraints linked to the individual characteristics of the worker, such as gender, race or color, education and age group, as well as characteristics of the labor market, such as, type of employment... mehr

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    This Discussion Paper aims to analyze the constraints linked to the individual characteristics of the worker, such as gender, race or color, education and age group, as well as characteristics of the labor market, such as, type of employment relationship and sector of economic activity, related to home office. For this, data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua), from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in Brazil and macro-regions and linear and logit models are used. The results suggest a specific worker profile for which work from home would be more feasible. In fact, white people, women, with a university degree, working in the formal sector and in the public sector are those employed with the highest estimated chance of being in this labor regime. Another highlight is at the spatial level, in which it is found that, once the set of conditions is controlled, with the exception of the Southeast, there are no statistically significant differences between the North region and the others in the estimated chance of potentially acting at work remote.

     
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    hdl: 10419/284886
    Schriftenreihe: Texto para discussão / Ipea ; 2830
    Schlagworte: home office; remote work; labor sector; labor economics
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The state of the art of environmental economic water and forest accounts in Brazil
    overview and evolution
    Autor*in: Góes, Geraldo Sandoval; Nascimento, José Antônio Sena; Almeida, Vinicius Pacheco de; Mendonça, Mário Jorge; Neves, Marco José Melo
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Ipea, Institute for Applied Economic Research, Brasília, DF, Brazil

    This paper aims to report the construction process of Environmental Economic Accounts for Water in Brazil and its institutional articulation between national and international public and private institutions, who participated in this construction... mehr

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    This paper aims to report the construction process of Environmental Economic Accounts for Water in Brazil and its institutional articulation between national and international public and private institutions, who participated in this construction effort. It also presents the current stage of construction of the Environmental Economic Accounts for Forest in Brazil.

     
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    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / IPEA ; 262 (December 2021)
    Schlagworte: SEEA; water; forest; Brazil
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)