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  1. Assessing the economic effects of lockdowns in Italy: a dynamic Input-Output approach
    Autor*in: Reissl, Severin; Caiani, Alessandro; Lamperti, Francesco; Guerini, Mattia; Vanni, Fabio; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Ferraresi, Tommaso; Ghezzi, Leonardo; Napoletano, Mauro; Roventini, Andrea
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    The unprecedented lockdown measures implemented by many countries in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have created a need for tools to assess their economic costs. For this purpose, we present a novel dynamic input-output modelling framework which... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 203
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    The unprecedented lockdown measures implemented by many countries in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have created a need for tools to assess their economic costs. For this purpose, we present a novel dynamic input-output modelling framework which we apply to an estimation of the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy. Lockdown measures are treated as shocks to available labor supply, being calibrated on regional and sectoral employment data coupled with the prescriptions of the prime ministerial decrees mandating the closure of specific industries. Using input-output tables for the Italian regions, we estimate the model on data from the first lockdown during spring 2020 and then simulate it to assess the regional and sectoral impacts. We find that, despite the simplicity of our framework, the model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics during the lockdown-induced downturn and subsequent recovery fairly closely for most sectors. This ability to match the empirical data is also confirmed by a small out-of-sample forecasting exercise. We subsequently also simulate the second set of 'softer' lockdown measures implemented during autumn and winter of 2020 in order to evaluate their impact and compare them to the first, 'hard' lockdown. Overall, we believe the simplicity and parsimony of our framework make it suitable for providing quick and reasonably accurate evaluations of the economic effects of different lockdown measures.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243499
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2021, 03 (February 2021)
    Schlagworte: Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Assessing the economic impact of lockdowns in Italy
    a computational input-output approach
    Autor*in: Reissl, Severin; Caiani, Alessandro; Lamperti, Francesco; Guerini, Mattia; Vanni, Fabio; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Ferraresi, Tommaso; Ghezzi, Leonardo; Napoletano, Mauro; Roventini, Andrea
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  OFCE, Paris, France

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    Schriftenreihe: Sciences Po OFCE working paper ; no 2021, 11
    Schlagworte: Coronavirus; Lockdown; Wirkungsanalyse; Input-Output-Analyse; Modellierung; Italien; Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. On the economic and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: a value chain approach
    Autor*in: Ferraresi, Tommaso; Ghezzi, Leonardo; Vanni, Fabio; Caiani, Alessandro; Guerini, Mattia; Lamperti, Francesco; Reissl, Severin; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Napoletano, Mauro; Roventini, Andrea
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    In this work, we evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to the risk associated with the spread of COVID-19 through a two-step value chain approach. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains... mehr

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    In this work, we evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to the risk associated with the spread of COVID-19 through a two-step value chain approach. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains linked to consumption, investment and exports. We distinguish between value chains aimed at satisfying essential needs and supply chains activated by needs characterized by a lower level of necessity in line with the restriction measures implemented by the Italian government. Second, we investigate the different levels of contagion risk associated with each value chain and the possibility of reducing it through remote working. An exercise on policy measures implemented by the Italian government during Fall 2020 completes the paper. We find that regions are affected differently by lockdown policies because of their high heterogeneity in the degree of embeddedness within different value chains and because their sectoral contributions to each of them. As a result, Italian regions are associated with very diverse potentials for mitigating contagion risk via remote working practices. Finally, we find evidence that economic and contagion risks positively correlate in non essential value chains, while they are negatively associated in the production of medium-necessity and essential goods and services. In turn, strong lockdowns induce substantially different trade-offs across regions, depending on how regions participate to value chains.

     
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    Sprache: Englisch
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    hdl: 10419/243506
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2021, 10 (April 2021)
    Schlagworte: COVID-19 lockdown; value chains; input-output models; contagion risk; remote working
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. A regional input-output model of the Covid-19 crisis in Italy
    decomposing demand and supply factors
    Autor*in: Reissl, Severin; Caiani, Alessandro; Lamperti, Francesco; Ferraresi, Tommaso; Ghezzi, Leonardo
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    We extend the regional input-output model for the economic impact assessment of Covid-19 lockdowns in Italy proposed in Reissl et al. (2021) by incorporating the effects of changes in mobility on the level and composition of consumption demand. We... mehr

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    We extend the regional input-output model for the economic impact assessment of Covid-19 lockdowns in Italy proposed in Reissl et al. (2021) by incorporating the effects of changes in mobility on the level and composition of consumption demand. We estimate the model on sectoral data for 2020 and perform an out-of-sample validation exercise for the first half of 2021, finding that the model performs well. We then evaluate the relative importance of demand- and supply-side factors in determining our simulation results. During the national lockdown of spring 2020 the impacts of supply-side (labor) shocks can account for the vast majority of output losses. In the following stages of the epidemic income and mobility-related effects on final demand play pivotal roles at the aggregate and regional levels, as well as for most sectors. While policies supporting demand may hence be appropriate, their effectiveness may be hampered when demand is chiefly restrained by the mobility-related effect, and not by income.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/259547
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2022, 04 (February 2022)
    Schlagworte: Input-output; Covid-19; Lockdown; Italy; Demand and Supply Shocks
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Italian regions in global value chains
    an input-output approach
    Autor*in: Bentivogli, Chiara; Ferraresi, Tommaso; Monti, Paola; Paniccià, Renato; Rosignoli, Stefano
    Erschienen: [2018]
    Verlag:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Schriftenreihe: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 462 (October 2018)
    Schlagworte: Export; Internationale Arbeitsteilung; Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration; Wertschöpfung; Regionalentwicklung; Regionale Input-Output-Analyse; Räumliche Verteilung; Italien
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Fiscal policies and credit regimes
    a TVAR approach
    Autor*in: Ferraresi, Tommaso; Roventini, Andrea; Fagiolo, Giorgio
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  OFCE, Paris

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    Schriftenreihe: Document de travail / OFCE ; 2013-02
    Schlagworte: Kreditmarkt; Finanzpolitik; Multiplikator; VAR-Modell; Mathematische Optimierung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.
  7. Fiscal policies and credit regimes
    a TVAR approach
    Autor*in: Ferraresi, Tommaso; Roventini, Andrea; Fagiolo, Giorgio
    Erschienen: 2013
    Verlag:  Laboratory of Economics and Management, Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa

    In the present work we investigate how the state of credit markets non-linearly affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model on U.S quarterly data for the period 1984-2010. We employ the spread... mehr

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    In the present work we investigate how the state of credit markets non-linearly affects the impact of fiscal policies. We estimate a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model on U.S quarterly data for the period 1984-2010. We employ the spread between BAA-rated corporate bond yield and 10-year treasury constant maturity rate as a proxy for credit conditions. We find that the response of output to fiscal policy shocks are stronger and more persistent when the economy is in the "tight" credit regime. The fiscal multipliers are abundantly and persistently higher than one when firms face increasing financing costs, whereas they are feebler and often lower than one in the "normal" credit regime. On the normative side, our results suggest policy makers to carefully plan fiscal policy measures according to the state of credit markets. -- fiscal policy ; threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) ; non-linear models ; impulse-response functions ; fiscal multipliers ; credit frictions ; financial accelerator

     
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    hdl: 10419/89310
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2013/03
    Schlagworte: Kreditmarkt; Finanzpolitik; Multiplikator; VAR-Modell; Mathematische Optimierung; USA
    Umfang: Online-Ressource, graph. Darst.
  8. Macroeconomic regimes, technological shocks and employment dynamics
    Autor*in: Ferraresi, Tommaso; Roventini, Andrea; Semmler, Willi
    Erschienen: June 1, 2016
    Verlag:  LEM, Laboratory of Economics and Management, Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy

    In this work, we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with... mehr

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    In this work, we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and GDP, employing the latter as threshold variable, and we assess the ensuing generalized impulse responses of GDP and hours as to TFP shocks. We find that positive productivity shocks, while spurring GDP growth, display a negative effect on hours worked at least on impact, independently of the state of the economy. In the 1957-2011 period, the effects of productivity shocks on employment are abundantly negative in downturns, but they are not significantly different from zero in good times. However, the impact of TFP shocks in different business cycle regimes depends on the chosen sample: after the mid eighties (1984-2011), productivity shocks increase hours during recessions. Finally, we express and test some conjectures that might have caused the changes in the responses in different time periods.

     
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    hdl: 10419/174532
    Schriftenreihe: LEM working paper series ; 2016/23
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen