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  1. 60 %, -4 % and 6 %, a tale of thresholds for EU fiscal and current account developments
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union(EU) countries, using quarterly data from1995 to2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the... mehr

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    We study the relationship between the budget balance and the current account balance for European Union(EU) countries, using quarterly data from1995 to2020. Through the use of panel Granger causality tests and a panel SUR model, we conclude that the relationship is bi-directional for the EU panelas a whole. Furthermore, we find that in Eurozone countries, before 2010, for those countries with an average current account balance-to-GDP ratio outside the range of -4 to6%, and also in countries whose average debt-to-GDP ratio is greater than 60%, the impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is greater. Conversely, in non-Eurozone countries, after 2010, in countries with a current account balance-to-GDP ratio of -4 to 6%, and also in countries with an average debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 60%, the impact of the fiscal balance on the current account balance is less relevant.

     
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245909
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 69 (2021, September)
    Schlagworte: budget deficit; external deficit; European Union; panel data; time series
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  2. Current account targeting hypothesis versus twin deficit hypothesis
    the EMU experience of Portugal
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We study the relationship between the government budget balance and the current account balance for Portugal, using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. On the one hand, the causality tests find a unidirectional relation running from the current account... mehr

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    We study the relationship between the government budget balance and the current account balance for Portugal, using quarterly data from 1999 to 2019. On the one hand, the causality tests find a unidirectional relation running from the current account balance to the government budget balance. On the other hand, IV estimations show a bi-directional relationship between these variables, and the existence of a bilateral relationship between the structural components of both balances. Even so, the policy implication is that the use of fiscal policy to correct the external imbalance, especially in an economic crisis, is not substantial, due to the small size of the estimated impact. In addition, with an ARDL model, we find a negative long run relationship between the share of public consumption on GDP and the current account balance. As expected, the variation of real public consumption produces an adverse accumulated response on the current account balance. Finally, the investment rate negatively affects the cyclical component of the current account balance and contributes to the structural improvement of the budget balance.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236735
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 68 (2021, July)
    Schlagworte: budget balance; external balance; current account targeting hypothesis; twin deficits; government consumption; ARDL; causality; VAR; Portugal
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The role of fiscal policies for external imbalances
    evidence from the European Union
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: 2021
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of... mehr

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    We revisit the relation between budget deficits and current account deficits for 28 European Union countries from 1996 to 2019. We find that an increase in budget deficit of 1 pp of GDP results in a deterioration of the current account deficit of 0.318 pp of GDP, which supports the Twin Deficits Hypothesis. On the other hand, dynamic panel estimates partially corroborate the Equivalence Ricardian Hypothesis in the presence of a fiscal rules index. In addition: i) the relation between the two deficits is asymmetric and the negative impact of the recent Eurozone banking and sovereign debt crisis on the current account balance is observed; ii) after 2010, the budget balance positively affects the current account balance; and iii) the positive impact of the budget balance on the current account balance is higher in the cases of non-Eurozone countries, high budget deficit countries, and low exports countries, whereas it is lower in the cases of Eurozone countries, low budget deficit countries, and high exports countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/233802
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 57 (2021, February)
    Schlagworte: budget deficit; external deficit; European Union; fiscal rules; panel data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Fiscal sustainability, fiscal reactions, pitfalls and determinants
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: March 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and... mehr

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    We examine the sustainability of public finances and its determinants for 19 Eurozone countries from 1995 to 2020. We conclude for the existence of panel cointegration between government revenues and expenditures; primary government balance and one-period lagged public debt-to-GDP ratio; and public debt-to-GDP ratio and one-period lagged primary government balance. The estimated fiscal reaction functions suggest the existence of a Ricardian fiscal regime. Finally, modelling via time-varying coefficients, we find that fiscal sustainability increases with growth, fiscal balances and fiscal rules indices, and decreases with trade openness, current account balances, government effectiveness index, after 2010, and with sovereign ratings assigned by the main rating agencies.

     
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    hdl: 10419/260765
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9635 (2022)
    Schlagworte: fiscal sustainability; budget balance; public debt; panel data; time-varying coefficients; Eurozone; sovereign ratings
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Twin deficits through the looking glass
    time-varying analysis in the euro area
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying... mehr

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    Using two measures of the fiscal position, the cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (CAPB) and the total budget balance, we assess the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Euro Area in the period 1995-2020. Furthermore, we estimate time-varying coefficients of the current account balance responses to changes in the CAPB and in the government balance and we identify the determinants of these responses. The CAPB and the government balance, in addition to being determinants of the current account balance, are also determinants of the time-varying responses of the current account balance. The levels of government balance, current account balance and public debt, as a percentage of GDP, and the temporal period (before and after 2010) also influence these responses.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252076
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9559 (2022)
    Schlagworte: CAPB; government balance; current account balance; time-varying coefficients; Eurozone; panel data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  6. Public finances solvency in the Euro Area
    true or false?
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: September 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts... mehr

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    We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries using quarterly data between 1999Q1 and 2020Q4. Through a country-by-country analysis, the answer to the title question is true. For most countries, (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged public debt ratio and past primary government balances contribute to the reduction of the public debt ratio, indicating a Ricardian fiscal regime. Furthermore, in a panel framework: (ii) the response of revenues to government expenditures is higher from 2010 onwards, and, for higher average public debt ratios, the response is lower, while (iii) the response of the primary government balance to the lagged public debt ratio is lower from 2010 onwards and is higher for higher average public debt ratios; (iv) past primary budget balances allow the public debt ratio to be reduced, especially before 2010 and in countries whose average public debt ratio is between 60 and 90% of GDP. Using a rolling window method, we find that (v) fiscal sustainability coefficients are higher the higher the lagged public debt ratios, fiscal rule indexes and sovereign ratings. Conversely, after 2010 and in periods of legislative elections, those coefficients are lower.

     
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    hdl: 10419/265970
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9935 (2022)
    Schlagworte: fiscal sustainability; primary budget balance; public debt; panel data; rolling windows; Euro Area; quarterly fiscal data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. How economic growth impinges on income inequalities?
    Autor*in: Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos; Roxo, Alexandre
    Erschienen: December 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Performing a panel data analysis for OECD countries, during the period between 1990 and 2019, this article investigates the relationship between economic growth and income inequalities. The main objective is to understand how the GDP and GNI per... mehr

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    Performing a panel data analysis for OECD countries, during the period between 1990 and 2019, this article investigates the relationship between economic growth and income inequalities. The main objective is to understand how the GDP and GNI per capita affect income inequality and how they differ. The results suggest a U-shaped relationship of both measures of economic growth with the market and disposable Gini indexes, the Palma and S80S20 ratios, and the income of the wealthier 10% of population, which contradicts the Kuznets hypothesis. Regarding the thresholds' analysis, there is evidence that when GDP per capita is used, inequality is higher, leading to the conclusion that countries with policies that inflate GDP rather than GNI are the main contributors to the rise in inequalities in the last years. Furthermore, the results also show a behavioral similarity between the income of the richest 10% of population and income inequality. Lastly, there is also a possibility to promote GNI per capita increasing policies, which could lead to higher economic growth while minimizing income inequalities.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271798
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10154 (2022)
    Schlagworte: inequality; economic growth; Kuznets hypothesis; panel data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Determinants of the degree of fiscal sustainability
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: January 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We assess the link between fiscal sustainability coefficients, namely the responses of the primary government balance and the global government balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio, and the response of government revenues to government expenditures. For... mehr

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    We assess the link between fiscal sustainability coefficients, namely the responses of the primary government balance and the global government balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio, and the response of government revenues to government expenditures. For 22 OECD developed countries we use annual data between 1950 and 2019. Other determinants of fiscal responses are also studied in the context of quantile regressions. We find that the output gap contributes to increasing fiscal sustainability by positively influencing the responsiveness of the primary and global government balances; the responses of the primary and global government balances to the debt ratio and the response of government revenues to government expenditures depend on the level of the debt ratio. In addition, from the quantile analysis, the influence of the response of government revenues to government expenditures is negative and increasing over the deciles, confirming the existence of a negative cross-relationship between the fiscal sustainability coefficients.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271869
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10225 (2023)
    Schlagworte: fiscal reaction function; fiscal determinants; panel data; quantile regressions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten)
  9. Drivers of fiscal sustainability
    a time-varying analysis for Portugal
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: September 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in Portugal during the period 1999Q4-2021Q4. We resort to expanding window and Schlicht (2003, 2021)'s time-varying approaches to construct the responses of government revenues to government expenditures... mehr

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    We assess the drivers of fiscal sustainability in Portugal during the period 1999Q4-2021Q4. We resort to expanding window and Schlicht (2003, 2021)'s time-varying approaches to construct the responses of government revenues to government expenditures and the responses of the primary government balance and the cyclically adjusted primary government balance (CAPB) to the debt-to-GDP ratio. Our results show the prevalence of a Ricardian fiscal regime in Portugal. If the (i-g) differential is positive, the positive response of the primary government balance to the debt-to-GDP ratio is amplified. An improvement in the external accounts, the increase in the European Commission's fiscal rules index and the extension of the debt maturity were beneficial for fiscal sustainability. Sovereign debt rating downgrades implied a posterior fiscal reaction that improves fiscal sustainability. Moreover, fiscal sustainability increased during the implementation of the international financial assistance program to Portugal, between 2011Q2 and 2014Q2.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282362
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10674 (2023)
    Schlagworte: fiscal sustainability; primary government balance; government debt; expanding window; time-varying; Portugal
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Fiscal and current account imbalances
    the cases of Germany and Portugal
    Autor*in: Afonso, António; Coelho, José Carlos
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in... mehr

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    We investigate the bilateral relationship between government budget balances and current account balances for Portugal and Germany. We find that the response of the current account balance to the budget balance is greater in Portugal than in Germany. On the other hand, the response of the budget balance to the current balance is higher in Germany than in Portugal. In Portugal and Germany, a fiscal rules index has a negative impact on the current account balance and the government effectiveness index has a positive impact on the government balance. The public debt as a percentage of GDP positively affects the current account balance in Portugal, and in Germany it does not. During the period of implementation of the external assistance programme in Portugal, the current account balance improved, while the government balance did not.

     
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    hdl: 10419/272955
    Schriftenreihe: EconPol working paper ; vol. 5, 72 (2021, December)
    Schlagworte: budget deficit; external deficit; Portugal; Germany; fiscal rules; time-series
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen