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  1. Overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a representative sample
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Kassner, Bernhard
    Erschienen: [2021]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, [München]

    We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and... mehr

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    We study the relationship between overconfidence and the political and financial behavior of a nationally representative sample. To do so, we introduce a new method of eliciting overconfidence that is simple to understand, quick to implement, and captures respondents' excess confidence in their own judgment. Our results show that, in line with theoretical predictions, an excessive degree of confidence in one's judgment is correlated with lower portfolio diversification, larger stock price forecasting errors, and more extreme political views. Additionally, we find that overconfidence is correlated with voting absenteeism. These results appear to validate our method and show how overconfidence is a bias that permeates several aspects of peoples' life.

     
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    hdl: 10419/244323
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 283 (May 26, 2021)
    Schlagworte: Overconfidence; SOEP; Survey
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Risk-taking under limited liability
    quantifying the role of motivated beliefs
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Gietl, Daniel; Heinemann, Frank
    Erschienen: December 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    This paper investigates whether limited liability and moral hazard affect risk-taking through motivated beliefs. On the one hand, limited liability pushes investors towards taking excessive risks. On the other, such excesses make it hard for... mehr

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    This paper investigates whether limited liability and moral hazard affect risk-taking through motivated beliefs. On the one hand, limited liability pushes investors towards taking excessive risks. On the other, such excesses make it hard for investors to maintain a positive self-image when moral hazard is present. Using a novel experimental design, we show that subjects form motivated beliefs to self-justify their excessive risk-taking. For the same investment opportunity, subjects invest more and are significantly more optimistic about the success of the investment if their failure can harm others. We show that more than one third of the investment increase under limited liability can be explained through motivated beliefs. Moreover, using a treatment with limited liability but no moral hazard, we show that motivated beliefs are formed subconsciously and can lead to the paradoxical result of investors taking larger risks when their investment can harm a third party than when it cannot. These results underscore the importance of motivated beliefs in regulatory policy as they show that one should target not only bad incentives but also “bad beliefs.”

     
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    hdl: 10419/249022
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9477 (2021)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Coordination under loss contracts
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bitter, Lea; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Munich, Germany

    In this paper we study the effects that loss contracts - prepayments that can be clawbacked later - have on group coordination when there is strategic uncertainty. We compare the choices made by experimental subjects in a minimum effort game. In... mehr

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    In this paper we study the effects that loss contracts - prepayments that can be clawbacked later - have on group coordination when there is strategic uncertainty. We compare the choices made by experimental subjects in a minimum effort game. In control sessions, incentives are formulated as a classic gain contract, while in treatment sessions, incentives are framed as an isomorphic loss contract. Our results show that loss contracts reduce the minimum efforts of groups and worsen coordination between group members, both leading to lower payoffs. However, these results depend strongly on the group's gender composition; groups with a larger proportion of women are better at coordinating and exert more effort.

     
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    hdl: 10419/224761
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 256 (September 7, 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Price dynamics and trader overconfidence
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Roulund, Rasmus
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Munich, Germany

    Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial markets and commonly associated with excessive trading and asset market bubbles. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, "static" personality trait. In... mehr

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    Overconfidence is one of the most important biases in financial markets and commonly associated with excessive trading and asset market bubbles. So far, most of the finance literature takes overconfidence as a given, "static" personality trait. In this paper we introduce a novel experimental design which allows us to track different measures of overconfidence during an asset market bubble. The results show that overconfidence co-moves with asset prices and points towards a feedback loop in which overconfidence adds fuel to the flame of existing bubbles.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208061
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 161 (June 26, 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Heads we both win, tails only you lose
    the effect of limited liability on risk-taking in financial decision making
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Munich, Germany

    One of the reasons for the recent crisis is that financial institutions took "too much risk" (Brunnermeier, 2009; Taylor et al., 2010). Why were these institutions taking so much risk is an open question. A recent strand in the literature points... mehr

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    One of the reasons for the recent crisis is that financial institutions took "too much risk" (Brunnermeier, 2009; Taylor et al., 2010). Why were these institutions taking so much risk is an open question. A recent strand in the literature points towards the "cognitive dissonance" of investors who, because of the limited liability of their investments, had a distorted view of riskiness (e.g., Barberis (2013); Benabou (2015)). In a series of laboratory experiments we show how limited liability does not affect the beliefs of investors, but does increase their willing exposure to risk. This results points to a simple explanation for the over-investment of banks and hedge-funds: When incentives are not aligned, investors take advantage of the moral hazard opportunities.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208062
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 162 (June 26, 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Intertemporal consumption and debt aversion
    a replication and extension
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin

    We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from... mehr

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    We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from the original study replicate, with similar effect sizes. Additionally, we extend the original analysis by correlating a new individual index of debt aversion on individual characteristics such as gender, cognitive ability, and risk aversion. The findings suggest that gender and risk aversion are not correlated with debt aversion. However, cognitive ability is positively correlated with debt aversion. Overall, this paper confirms the importance of debt aversion in intertemporal consumption problems and validates the approach of Meissner (2016).

     
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    hdl: 10419/249273
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2022, 1
    Schlagworte: Debt Aversion; Replication; Experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Intertemporal consumption and debt aversion
    a replication and extension
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, [München]

    We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from... mehr

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    We replicate Meissner (2016) where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our subjects are US undergraduate students. All of the main findings from the original study replicate with similar effect sizes. Additionally, we extend the original analysis by correlating a new individual index of debt aversion on individual characteristics such as gender, cognitive ability, and risk aversion. The findings suggest that gender and risk aversion are not correlated with debt aversion. However, cognitive ability is positively correlated with debt aversion. Overall, this paper confirms the importance of debt aversion in intertemporal consumption problems and validates the approach of Meissner (2016).

     
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    hdl: 10419/256779
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 312 (January 20, 2022)
    Schlagworte: Debt Aversion; Replication; Experiment
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Motivated beliefs, social preferences, and limited liability in financial decision-making
    Autor*in: Ahrens, Steffen; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril
    Erschienen: [2022]
    Verlag:  Freie Universität Berlin, [Berlin]

    Using a new experimental design, we compare how subjects form beliefs in an investor-client setup under varying degrees of liability. Our results reflect the importance of social preferences when making investment decisions for others. We show that... mehr

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    Using a new experimental design, we compare how subjects form beliefs in an investor-client setup under varying degrees of liability. Our results reflect the importance of social preferences when making investment decisions for others. We show that when investors have no liability, those with stronger social preferences are more optimistic about the probability that their investment results in a gain. In other words, we find that social preferences appear to be correlated with motivated beliefs. This finding suggests the existence of cognitive biases in financial decision-making and supports the recent literature on the formation of motivated beliefs under limited liability (Barberis, 2015; Bénabou and Tirole, 2016).

     
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    hdl: 10419/266346
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2022, 8
    Schlagworte: Moral Hazard; Experiment; Motivated Beliefs; Social Preferences
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Risk-taking under limited liability
    quantifying the role of motivated beliefs
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Gietl, Daniel; Heinemann, Frank
    Erschienen: [2019]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, Munich, Germany

    This paper investigates whether limited liability affects risk-taking through motivated beliefs. To do so, we run a within-subject experiment in which subjects invest in a risky asset under full or limited liability. In both cases, before the... mehr

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    This paper investigates whether limited liability affects risk-taking through motivated beliefs. To do so, we run a within-subject experiment in which subjects invest in a risky asset under full or limited liability. In both cases, before the investment is made, subjects observe a noisy signal that indicates whether the investment will succeed or fail. They then state the likelihood of the investment's success and decide how much to invest. Our results show a strong effect of limited liability on both the investment decision and the formation of motivated beliefs. Compared to subjects under full liability, subjects under limited liability not only invest larger amounts but are also significantly more optimistic about the success of their investments. Finally, we show that more than one-third of the increase in investment under limited liability can be explained through motivated beliefs.

     
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    hdl: 10419/222107
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 210 (December 9, 2019)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Non-standard errors
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Kassner, Bernhard
    Erschienen: [2023]
    Verlag:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, [München]

    In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating... mehr

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    In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282077
    Schriftenreihe: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 385 (February 11, 2023)
    Schlagworte: uncertainty; standard errors; reproducibility; hypotheses
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Cognitive bubbles
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas; Bosch Domènech, Antoni
    Erschienen: 2015
    Verlag:  SFB 649, Economic Risk, Berlin

    Smith et al. (1988) reported large bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets, a result that has been replicated by a large literature. Here we test whether the occurrence of bubbles depends on the experimental subjects' cognitive... mehr

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    Smith et al. (1988) reported large bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets, a result that has been replicated by a large literature. Here we test whether the occurrence of bubbles depends on the experimental subjects' cognitive sophistication. In a two-part experiment, we first run a battery of tests to assess the subjects' cognitive sophistication and classify them into low or high levels of cognitive sophistication. We then invite them separately to two asset market experiments populated only by subjects with either low or high cognitive sophistication. We observe classic bubble- crash patterns in the sessions populated by subjects with low levels of cognitive sophistication. Yet, no bubbles or crashes are observed with our sophisticated subjects. This result lends strong support to the view that the usual bubbles and crashes in experimental asset markets are caused by subjects' confusion and, therefore, raises some doubts about the external validity of this type of experiments.

     
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    hdl: 10419/107908
    Schriftenreihe: SFB 649 discussion paper ; 2015-006
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (30 S.), graph. Darst.
  12. Cognitive bubbles
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril; Meissner, Thomas; Bosch Domènech, Antoni
    Erschienen: January 20, 2015
    Verlag:  [Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business], [Barcelona]

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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Department of Economics and Business ; 1464
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. That's how we roll
    an experiment on rollover risk
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  SFB 649, Economic Risk, Berlin

    There is consensus that the recent financial crisis revolved around a crash of the short-term credit market. Yet there is no agreement around the necessary policies to prevent another credit freeze. In this experiment we test the effects that... mehr

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    There is consensus that the recent financial crisis revolved around a crash of the short-term credit market. Yet there is no agreement around the necessary policies to prevent another credit freeze. In this experiment we test the effects that contract length (i.e. maturity mismatch) has on the market-wide supply of short-term credit. Our main result is that, while credit markets with shorter maturities are less prone to freezes, the optimal policy should be state-dependent, favoring long contracts and lower maturity mismatch when the economy is in good shape, and allowing for short-term contracts when the economy is in a recession. We also report the possibility of credit runs on firms with strong fundamentals, something that cannot be observed in the canonical static models of financial panics. Finally, we show that our experimental design produces rich learning dynamics, with a text-book bubble and crash pattern in the market for short-term credit.

     
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    hdl: 10419/103807
    Schriftenreihe: SFB 649 discussion paper ; 2014-048
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (37 S.), graph. Darst.
  14. A tale of two tails
    preferences of neutral third-parties in three-player ultimatum games
    Autor*in: Bosch-Rosa, Ciril
    Erschienen: 2014
    Verlag:  SFB 649, Economic Risk, Berlin

    We present a three-player game in which a proposer makes a suggestion on how to split $10 with a passive responder. The offer is accepted or rejected depending on the strategy pro le of a neutral third-party whose payoffs are independent from his... mehr

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    We present a three-player game in which a proposer makes a suggestion on how to split $10 with a passive responder. The offer is accepted or rejected depending on the strategy pro le of a neutral third-party whose payoffs are independent from his decisions. If the offer is accepted the split takes place as suggested, if rejected, then both proposer and receiver get $0. Our results show a decision-maker whose main concern is to reduce the inequality between proposer and responder and who, in order to do so, is willing to reject both selfish and generous offers. This pattern of rejections is robust through a series of treatments which include changing the "flat-fee" payoff of the decision-maker, introducing a monetary cost for the decision-maker in case the offer ends up in a rejection, or letting a computer replace the proposer to randomly make the splitting suggestion between proposer and responder. Further, through these different treatments we are able to show that decision-makers ignore the intentions behind the proposers suggestions, as well as ignoring their own relative payoffs, two surprising results given the existing literature.

     
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    hdl: 10419/103782
    Auflage/Ausgabe: First version: 13/2/2011, This Version: 31/10/2013
    Schriftenreihe: SFB 649 discussion paper ; 2014-057
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (33 S.), Ill., graph. Darst.