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  1. Testing the dismal theorem
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Erschienen: March 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Weitzman's Dismal Theorem has that the expected net present value of a stock problem with a stochastic growth rate with unknown variance is unbounded. Cost-benefit analysis can therefore not be applied to greenhouse gas emission control. We use the... mehr

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    Weitzman's Dismal Theorem has that the expected net present value of a stock problem with a stochastic growth rate with unknown variance is unbounded. Cost-benefit analysis can therefore not be applied to greenhouse gas emission control. We use the Generalized Central Limit Theorem to show that the Dismal Theorem can be tested, in a finite sample, by estimating the tail index. We apply this test to social cost of carbon estimates from three commonly used integrated assessment models, and to previously published estimates. Two of the three models do not support the Dismal Theorem, but the third one does for low discount rates. The meta-analysis cannot reject the Dismal Theorem.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235309
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8939 (2021)
    Schlagworte: climate policy; dismal theorem; fat tails; social cost of carbon
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. On differentiated carbon prices and discount rates
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Dennig, Francis; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The consensus view amongst economists is that carbon prices, in order to be effcient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that consumers in different countries face different discount... mehr

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    The consensus view amongst economists is that carbon prices, in order to be effcient, must be the same across the globe. But when there are inefficiencies in the allocation of capital so that consumers in different countries face different discount rates, we show that efficient carbon prices must be different across countries. This is a consequence of Hotelling's familiar argument on the price of a non-renewable resource: it must grow at the rate of the next best use of marginal funds, which is equal to the country's discount rate. If different countries discount at different rates, their carbon prices ought to grow at different rates as well. If they grow at different rates, they can't be the same all of the time, as first-best carbon prices are. The computational climate policy literature has so far avoided this conclusion by altering time preferences in a country specific way through time-varying Negishi weights. We show that the use of such weights causes inefficient policy prescriptions and, furthermore, has the particularly undesirable consequence of incorrectly discounting future consumption more in countries with high growth rates. The existence of inefficiencies in the savings process - causing differences in discount rates - is well-known and should be acknowledged head on in climate policy analysis. Doing so results in global mitigation policy with carbon price paths for different countries growing (efficiently) at different rates.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245424
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9243 (2021)
    Schlagworte: carbon price; Hotelling rule; efficient climate policy; Negishi weights; integrated assessment models; discounting
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten)
  3. Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change
    an application of FUND
    Autor*in: Narita, Daiju; Tol, Richard S. J.; Anthoff, David
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Economic and Social Research Inst., Dublin

    Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with... mehr

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    Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.4. In the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.4 billion globally (approximately 35% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while its ratio to the world GDP is 0.0007%. The paper also shows various sensitivity runs exhibiting up to 4 times the level of damage relative to the base run.

     
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    hdl: 10419/50034
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / The Economic and Social Research Institute ; 274
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Umweltbelastung; Sturm; Katastrophenschaden; Prognose; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S.), graph. Darst.
  4. Discounting for climate change
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S. J.; Yohe, Gary Wynn
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Economic and Social Research Inst., Dublin

    It is well-known that the discount rate is crucially important for estimating the social cost of carbon, a standard indicator for the seriousness of climate change and desirable level of climate policy. The Ramsey equation for the discount rate has... mehr

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    It is well-known that the discount rate is crucially important for estimating the social cost of carbon, a standard indicator for the seriousness of climate change and desirable level of climate policy. The Ramsey equation for the discount rate has three components: the pure rate of time preference, a measure of relative risk aversion, and the rate of growth of per capita consumption. Much of the attention on the appropriate discount rate for long-term environmental problems has focussed on the role played by the pure rate of time preference in this formulation. We show that the other two elements are numerically just as important in considerations of anthropogenic climate change. The elasticity of the marginal utility with respect to consumption is particularly important because it assumes three roles: consumption smoothing over time, risk aversion, and inequity aversion. Given the large uncertainties about climate change and widely asymmetric impacts, the assumed rates of risk and inequity aversion can be expected to play significant roles. The consumption growth rate plays four roles. It is one of the determinants of the discount rate, and one of the drivers of emissions and hence climate change. We find that the impacts of climate change grow slower than income, so that the effective discount rate is higher than the real discount rate. The differential growth rate between rich and poor countries determines the time evolution of the size of the equity weights. As there are a number of crucial but uncertain parameters, it is no surprise that one can obtain almost any estimate of the social cost of carbon. We even show that, for a low pure rate of time preference, the estimate of the social cost of carbon is indeed arbitrary – as one can exclude neither large positive nor large negative impacts in the very long run. However, if we probabilistically constrain the parameters to values that are implied by observed behaviour, we find that the social cost of carbon, corrected for uncertainty and inequity, is 61 US dollar per metric tonne of carbon. -- Social cost of carbon ; climate change ; pure time preference ; risk aversion ; inequity aversion ; income elasticity ; time horizon ; uncertainty

     
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    hdl: 10419/50118
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / The Economic and Social Research Institute ; 276
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Risiko; Soziale Diskontrate; Soziale Kosten; Intertemporale Entscheidung; Risikoaversion; Einkommenselastizität der Nachfrage; Grenznutzentheorie; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 35 S.), graph. Darst.
  5. The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Erschienen: [2009]
    Verlag:  [Univ., Forschungsstelle Nachhaltige Umweltentwicklung], [Hamburg]

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Schriftenreihe: Working Paper FNU ; 175
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Küstenregion; Überschwemmung; Küstenschutz; Soziale Kosten; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (31 S.), graph. Darst.
  6. Schelling's conjecture on climate and development
    a test
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  ESRI, [Dublin]

    We use the integrated assessment model FUND to compute the income elasticities of climate change impacts for different world regions over time. We find limited support for Schelling's Conjecture that development might be the best defense against... mehr

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    We use the integrated assessment model FUND to compute the income elasticities of climate change impacts for different world regions over time. We find limited support for Schelling's Conjecture that development might be the best defense against climate change impacts, and for the idea that the impacts from climate change might be akin to a "luxury good". For very poor regions, an increase in income in the short run is an effective tool to reduce impacts from climate change by making those societies less vulnerable, in particular to infectious diseases. While net climate impacts appear to be akin to a luxury good for some countries at specific times, that effect disappears in the long run as impacts from agriculture make up a large share of total impacts.

     
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    hdl: 10419/50161
    Schriftenreihe: ESRI working paper ; 390
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Kosten; Landwirtschaft; Krankheit; Entwicklung; Einkommenselastizität der Nachfrage
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 18 S., 756 KB)
  7. The uncertainty about the social cost of carbon
    a decomposition analysis using FUND
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Erschienen: 2011
    Verlag:  ESRI, [Dublin]

    We report the results of an uncertainty decomposition analysis of the social cost of carbon as estimated by FUND, a model that has a more detailed representation of the economic impact of climate change than any other model. Some of the parameters... mehr

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    We report the results of an uncertainty decomposition analysis of the social cost of carbon as estimated by FUND, a model that has a more detailed representation of the economic impact of climate change than any other model. Some of the parameters particularly influence impacts in the short run whereas other parameters are important in the long run. Some parameters are influential in some regions only. Some parameters are known reasonably well, but others are not. Ethical values, such as the pure rate of time preference and the rate of risk aversion, therefore affect not only the social cost of carbon, but also the importance of the parameters that determine its value. Some parameters, however, are consistently important: cooling energy demand, migration, climate sensitivity, and agriculture. The last two are subject to a large research effort, but the first two are not. -- social cost of carbon; uncertainty; research priorities

     
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    hdl: 10419/100220
    Schriftenreihe: ESRI working paper ; 404
    Schlagworte: Umweltbelastung; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Soziale Kosten; Internationale Migration; Agrarproduktion; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 22 S., 268 KB), graph. Darst.
  8. Climate policy under fat-tailed risk
    an application of FUND
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Tol, Richard S. J.
    Erschienen: 2010
    Verlag:  Economic and Social Research Inst., Dublin

    We apply four alternative decision criteria, two old ones and two new, to the question of the appropriate level of greenhouse gas emission reduction. In all cases, we consider a uniform carbon tax that is applied to all emissions from all sectors and... mehr

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    We apply four alternative decision criteria, two old ones and two new, to the question of the appropriate level of greenhouse gas emission reduction. In all cases, we consider a uniform carbon tax that is applied to all emissions from all sectors and all countries; and that increases over time with the discount rate. For a one per cent pure rate of the time preference and a rate of risk aversion of one, the tax that maximises expected net present welfare equals $120/tC in 2010. However, we also find evidence that the uncertainty about welfare may well have fat tails so that the expectation exists only by virtue of the finite number of runs in our Monte Carlo analysis. This confirms Weitzman’s Dismal Theorem. We therefore consider minimax regret as a decision criterion. As regret is defined on the positive real line, we in fact consider large percentiles instead of the ill-defined maximum. Depending on the percentile used, the recommended tax lies between $100 and $170/tC. Regret is a measure of the slope of the welfare function, while we are in fact concerned about the level of welfare. We therefore minimise the tail risk, defined as the expected welfare below a percentile of the probability density function without climate policy. Depending of the percentile used, the recommended tax lies between $20 and $330/tC. We also minimise the fatness of the tails, as measured by the p-value of the test of the hypothesis that recursive mean welfare is stationary in the number of Monte Carlo runs. We cannot reject the null hypothesis of non-stationary at the 5% confidence level, but come closest for an initial tax of $50/tC. All four alternative decision criteria rapidly improve as modest taxes are introduced, but gradually deteriorate if the tax is too high. That implies that the appropriate tax is an interior solution. In stark contrast to some of the interpretations of the Dismal Theorem, we find that fat tails by no means justify arbitrarily large carbon taxes. -- Climate change ; integrated assessment ; decision making under uncertainty ; deep uncertainty ; fat-tailed risk ; dismal theorem

     
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    hdl: 10419/50132
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / The Economic and Social Research Institute ; 348
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Treibhausgas-Emissionen; Ökosteuer; Diskontierung; Entscheidung unter Unsicherheit; Theorie
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 37 S.), graph. Darst.
  9. International climate policy and regional welfare weights
    Autor*in: Narita, Daiju; Tol, Richard S. J.; Anthoff, David
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Economic and Social Research Inst., Dublin

    We impute a global social welfare function that is consistent with the burden sharing in the Kyoto Protocol and in two proposals for a post-Kyoto treaty. The Kyoto Protocol favored the EU. The Frankel proposal for a post-Kyoto treaty continues the... mehr

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    We impute a global social welfare function that is consistent with the burden sharing in the Kyoto Protocol and in two proposals for a post-Kyoto treaty. The Kyoto Protocol favored the EU. The Frankel proposal for a post-Kyoto treaty continues the favorable treatment of the EU, while the EU proposal puts more weight on the wellbeing of other OECD countries at the expense of its own residents. Ignoring income differences, the EU proposal for a post-Kyoto treaty favors developing countries. However, if income differences are taken into account, the EU proposal is not at all generous to developing countries. -- Climate policy ; burden sharing ; income inequality

     
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    hdl: 10419/50085
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / The Economic and Social Research Institute ; 332
    Schlagworte: Klimaschutz; Internationale Umweltpolitik; Umweltkosten; Soziale Wohlfahrtsfunktion; Einkommensverteilung; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 31 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. Modeling uncertainty in climate change
    a multi-model comparison
    Autor*in: Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William D.; Anthoff, David; Bosetti, Valentina; McJeon, Haewon C.; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Christensen, Peter Ove; Reilly, John M.; Sztorc, Paul
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple... mehr

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.

     
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    hdl: 10419/142287
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 13
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Modellierung; Risiko; Bevölkerung; Produktivität; Welt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Priority for the worse off and the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Adler, Matthew D.; Anthoff, David; Bosetti, Valentina; Garner, Greg; Keller, Klaus; Treich, Nicolas
    Erschienen: August 2016
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary measure of the harms from carbon emission. Specifically, it is the reduction in current consumption that produces a loss in social welfare equivalent to that caused by the emission of a ton of CO2. The... mehr

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    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary measure of the harms from carbon emission. Specifically, it is the reduction in current consumption that produces a loss in social welfare equivalent to that caused by the emission of a ton of CO2. The standard approach is to calculate the SCC using a discounted-utilitarian social welfare function (SWF) - one that simply adds up the well-being numbers (utilities) of individuals, as discounted by a weighting factor that decreases with time. The discounted-utilitarian SWF has been criticized both for ignoring the distribution of well-being, and for including an arbitrary preference for earlier generations. Here, we use a prioritarian SWF, with no time-discount factor, to calculate the SCC in the integrated assessment model RICE. Prioritarianism is a well-developed concept in ethics and theoretical welfare economics, but has been, thus far, little used in climate scholarship. The core idea is to give greater weight to well-being changes affecting worse off individuals. We find substantial differences between the discounted-utilitarian and non-discounted prioritarian SCC.

     
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    hdl: 10419/145067
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 6032
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Modeling uncertainty in climate change
    a multi-model comparison
    Autor*in: Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William D.; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; McJeon, Haewon C.; Reilly, John M.; Sztorc, Paul
    Erschienen: October 2015
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 21637
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Modellierung; Risiko; Bevölkerung; Produktivität; Welt
    Umfang: 66 Seiten, Illustrationen
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  13. Priority for the worse off and the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Adler, Matthew D.; Anthoff, David; Bosetti, Valentina; Garner, Greg; Keller, Klaus; Treich, Nicolas
    Erschienen: 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary measure of the harms from carbon emission. Specifically, it is the reduction in current consumption that produces a loss in social welfare equivalent to that caused by the emission of a ton of CO2. The... mehr

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    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetary measure of the harms from carbon emission. Specifically, it is the reduction in current consumption that produces a loss in social welfare equivalent to that caused by the emission of a ton of CO2. The standard approach is to calculate the SCC using a discounted-utilitarian social welfare function (SWF)-one that simply adds up the well-being numbers (utilities) of individuals, as discounted by a weighting factor that decreases with time. The discounted-utilitarian SWF has been criticized both for ignoring the distribution of well-being, and for including an arbitrary preference for earlier generations. Here, we use a prioritarian SWF, with no time-discount factor, to calculate the SCC in the integrated assessment model RICE. Prioritarianism is a well-developed concept in ethics and theoretical welfare economics, but has been, thus far, little used in climate scholarship. The core idea is to give greater weight to well-being changes affecting worse off individuals. We find substantial differences between the discounted-utilitarian and non-discounted prioritarian SCC.

     
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    hdl: 10419/149528
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 55
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Optimal global dynamic carbon taxation
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David
    Erschienen: 2009
    Verlag:  Economic and Social Research Inst., Dublin

    A necessary condition of an efficient global climate change mitigation policy is to equate marginal abatement costs across world regions to ensure use of the cheapest abatement options available. The welfare economic justification for such an... mehr

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    A necessary condition of an efficient global climate change mitigation policy is to equate marginal abatement costs across world regions to ensure use of the cheapest abatement options available. The welfare economic justification for such an approach rests on lump sum transfers between regions to compensate for any unwanted distributional consequences of such a policy. I contrast this efficient solution with a second best situation in which lump sum transfers between regions are impossible. I derive that in a dynamic setting optimal taxes are different in such a case for regions with different per capita consumption. I estimate the optimal tax rates with the integrated assessment model FUND and find that optimal mitigation is less stringent when equity is explicitly considered for widely used parameter choices of a utilitarian social welfare function. -- Climate change

     
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    hdl: 10419/50148
    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / The Economic and Social Research Institute ; 278
    Schlagworte: Klimawandel; Internationale Umweltpolitik; Räumliche Wirkung; Kompensationsmaßnahme; Ökosteuer; Pauschalbesteuerung; Wohlfahrtsanalyse; Prognose; Welt
    Umfang: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 31 S.)
  15. Inequality and the Social Cost of Carbon
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: July 2016
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich

    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63 (5989)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and an equity weighted Social Cost of Carbon estimate as special cases. We also present a methodology to incorporate more fine grained regional resolutions of income and damage distributions than typically found in integrated assessment models. Finally, we present quantitative estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon that use our disentangling of different types of inequality aversion. We use two integrated assessment models (FUND and RICE) for our numerical exercise to get more robust findings. Our results suggest that inequality considerations lead to a higher (lower) SCC values in high (low) income regions relative to an efficiency based approach, but that the effect is less strong than found in previous studies that use equity weighting. Our central estimate is that the Social Cost of Carbon increases roughly by a factor of 2.5 from a US perspective when our disentangled equity weighting approach is used.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
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    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/145024
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; no. 5989
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Inequality and the social cost of carbon
    Autor*in: Anthoff, David; Emmerling, Johannes
    Erschienen: July 1, 2016
    Verlag:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano

    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and... mehr

    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 125 (54)
    Fernleihe:
    keine Fernleihe

     

    This paper presents a novel way to disentangle inequality aversion over time from inequality aversion between regions in the computation of the Social Cost of Carbon. Our approach nests a standard efficiency based Social Cost of Carbon estimate and an equity weighted Social Cost of Carbon estimate as special cases. We also present a methodology to incorporate more fine grained regional resolutions of income and damage distributions than typically found in integrated assessment models. Finally, we present quantitative estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon that use our disentangling of different types of inequality aversion. We use two integrated assessment models (FUND and RICE) for our numerical exercise to get more robust findings. Our results suggest that inequality considerations lead to a higher (lower) SCC values in high (low) income regions relative to an efficiency based approach, but that the effect is less strong than found in previous studies that use equity weighting. Our central estimate is that the Social Cost of Carbon increases roughly by a factor of 2.5 from a US perspective when our disentangled equity weighting approach is used.

     
    Export in Literaturverwaltung   RIS-Format
      BibTeX-Format
    Hinweise zum Inhalt
    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/149527
    Schriftenreihe: Array ; 2016, 54
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen