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Displaying results 1 to 5 of 5.

  1. Inflation and growth in the WAMZ
    evidence from a threshold analysis
    Author: Tarawalie, Abu Bakarr; Sissoho, Momodu; Conte, Mohamed; Ahortor, Christian R.
    Published: June, 2012
    Publisher:  West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), Accra, Ghana

    The focus of this paper was to empirically estimate the threshold levels of inflation in the WAMZ, using the conditional least square technique. The study also identified the determinants of growth in the WAMZ. The empirical analysis uses annual data... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The focus of this paper was to empirically estimate the threshold levels of inflation in the WAMZ, using the conditional least square technique. The study also identified the determinants of growth in the WAMZ. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1970-2010 for Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, and 1980-2010 for the Gambia and Guinea. The results showed that there exists a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between inflation and economic growth for the WAMZ countries. Furthermore, the empirical results strongly suggest the existence of threshold level of inflation for the WAMZ countries, beyond which inflation exert a negative effect on growth. The results revealed an inflation rate of 9 percent as the optimal rate of inflation for the WAMZ countries. The results showed that WAMZ countries threshold inflation rates lie within the convergence criterion of maintaining an inflation rate not exceeding 10 percent. The results are useful for policy makers in providing some clue in setting an optimal inflation target. Policy makers should implement policies aimed at achieving the threshold inflation rate that is consistent with higher economic growth. Thus, it is desirable to keep inflation rate at least within the threshold level in member countries, as it may help maintain sustainable growth. A sustainable increase in growth can be achieved by directing monetary policy towards maintaining price stability.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/264212
    Series: WAMI occasional paper series ; no. 1
    Subjects: Inflation rate; Real GDP; threshold effect; WAMZ countries; Conditional least square
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Exchange rate, inflation and macroeconomic performance in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)
    Author: Tarawalie, Abu Bakarr; Sissoho, Momodu; Conte, Mohamed; Ahortor, Christian R.
    Published: June, 2012
    Publisher:  West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), Accra, Ghana

    The study investigates the effect of changes in the exchange rate on output growth and inflation in the WAMZ economies. It formulates an open-economy general equilibrium model which highlights the interrelationships among real GDP growth, inflation,... more

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 823
    Inter-library loan:
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    The study investigates the effect of changes in the exchange rate on output growth and inflation in the WAMZ economies. It formulates an open-economy general equilibrium model which highlights the interrelationships among real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate depreciation/ appreciation and money supply growth. Employing quarterly data series for the period 1981Q1 to 2010Q4 for all countries except Ghana (1983Q2 to 2010Q4) and Guinea (1989Q1 to 2010Q4), the study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the impulse response functions and variance decompositions for inflation and output in order to determine how inflation and output respond to changes in the exchange rate, and what proportion of inflation and output variance can be explained by the exchange rate. The results of the study suggest that exchange rate had significant impact on inflation in all the Member States. The results reveal a negative relationship between real exchange rate and real GDP growth for both Liberia and Sierra Leone, implying that depreciation of the real exchange rates in these countries could lead to output growth. However, the impact of exchange rates on output in The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea and Nigeria though positive, remained weak, which may be partly due to supply side factors as evident from the results. Overall, the key message of the study was that real exchange rate depreciation generates inflationary pressures and impact significantly on output growth. In addition, inflation and growth in the WAMZ are partly driven by structural factors. The policy implication arising from this study is that WAMZ Member States should continue to implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies to achieve and sustain price stability. Monetary, exchange rate and real sector policies should be well knitted to ensure macroeconomic stability. In this regard, Member States should implement sectoral and structural policies that promote food production in order to dampen inflationary pressures

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/264213
    Series: WAMI occasional paper series ; no 2
    Subjects: Exchange rate; Inflation; Real GDP; VAR model; Impulse response; WAMZ countries; quarterly data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Fiscal and monetary policy coordination in the WAMZ
    implications for member states’ perfromance on the convergence criteria
    Author: Tarawalie, Abu Bakarr; Sissoho, Momodu; Conte, Mohamed; Ahortor, Christian R.
    Published: December, 2013
    Publisher:  West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), Accra, Ghana

    The study investigates the level of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries and its implications for the attainment of the inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. To achieve this objective, the study utilizes the... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 823
    Inter-library loan:
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    The study investigates the level of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries and its implications for the attainment of the inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. To achieve this objective, the study utilizes the Set Theoretic Approach (STA) and the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling to estimate the degree of policy coordination in the Zone. The empirical analysis uses annual data for the period 1980 - 2011. Under the STA, coordination exists when shocks to policy goals elicit prudent policy responses. In the case of the VAR, the strength of coordination is measured by the impulse responses of fiscal and monetary policy variables to innovations in inflation, output gap and exchange rate. The results reveal weak policy coordination in all the WAMZ countries during the period, contributing to the non-compliance with respect to inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. The results of the set theoretic models show that explicit policy coordination scores in the WAMZ countries are less than 50.0 percent, with The Gambia obtaining a coordination score of 46.6 percent, Ghana (34.5), Guinea (31.8), Liberia (37.9), Nigeria (46.6) and Sierra Leone (41.3). Additionally, the monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries tend to implement relatively more prudent policies than the fiscal authorities, except in the case of Guinea, where the two policies are at par in terms of prudence. The results of the impulse response also indicate that there is weak response to shocks induced by different variables. It takes a long period for the variables to convergence to their long-run equilibrium path. The key recommendation is that WAMZ countries should strengthen policy coordination by putting in place formal coordination platforms and institutional arrangements for timely and adequate statistics, binding commitments and effective monitoring and evaluation of policy outcomes.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/264215
    Series: WAMI occasional paper series ; vol. 1, no. 4
    Subjects: coordination; fiscal policy; monetary policy; WAMZ countries; set theoretic approach; VAR
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Export performance and exchange rate volatility
    evidence from the WAMZ
    Author: Tarawalie, Abu Bakarr; Sissoho, Momodu; Conte, Mohamed; Ahortor, Christian R.
    Published: December, 2013
    Publisher:  West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), Accra, Ghana

    This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in the WAMZ countries using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010. The paper utilizes the Engel-Granger Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation technique as well as... more

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    This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in the WAMZ countries using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010. The paper utilizes the Engel-Granger Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation technique as well as the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the real exchange rate volatility. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that increases in the exchange-rate volatility exert a significant negative effect upon export in Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. While a positive relationship is established in the case of The Gambia, exchange-rate volatility impact on Ghana and Guinea is insignificant. The results also reveal a positive relationship between terms of trade and export performance for all the countries, indicating that improvement in terms of trade trigger increases in export performance in the WAMZ countries. Income from the rest of the world is found to have a positive effect on export performance in the WAMZ countries. The study also finds that real effective exchange rate has a negative impact on export performance in the case of The Gambia, Ghana and Nigeria, while a positive relationship is established in the case of Guinea and Liberia. However, while a positive relationship is revealed for Sierra Leone in the long run, its impact in the short run is negative. A key lesson arising from this study is that trade policy actions aimed at stabilizing the export market are likely to generate uncertain results, at best, if policymakers in the WAMZ countries ignore the stability as well as the level of the real exchange rate. Thus, if policymakers wish to target exports, policies which will ensure stability of the exchange rate should be of outmost importance.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/264216
    Series: WAMI occasional paper series ; vol. 1, no. 5
    Subjects: Exchange rate volatility; Engel-Granger Dynamic OLS; export performance; GARCH; WAMZ
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Political business cycles and macroeconomic convergence
    the WAMZ experience
    Author: Tarawalie, Abu Bakarr; Sissoho, Momodu; Conte, Mohamed; Ahortor, Christian R.
    Published: April, 2014
    Publisher:  West African Monetary Institute (WAMI), Accra, Ghana

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 823
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/264218
    Series: WAMI occasional paper series ; vol. 1, no. 7
    Subjects: Political business cycle; Macroeconomic convergence; WAMZ
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen