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  1. Expansionary fiscal austerity
    new international evidence
    Author: Nie, Owen
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, Washington, DC, USA

    The expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis states that fiscal austerity can increase output or consumption when a country is under heavy debt burdens because it sends positive signal about the country's solvency situation and long-term... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    The expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis states that fiscal austerity can increase output or consumption when a country is under heavy debt burdens because it sends positive signal about the country's solvency situation and long-term economic wellbeing. Empirical tests of this hypothesis have suffered from identification concerns due to data sources and empirical methodology. Using a sample of OECD countries between 1978 and 2014, this paper combines new IMF narrative data and the proxy structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) method to examine whether fiscal austerities can be expansionary when debt levels are high. Fiscal austerities are measured as 1) narrative fiscal shocks and 2) structural shocks from a proxy SVAR. Additionally, this paper uses a model-based approach to determine the cutoff debt level beyond which EFC is expected to be observed. This paper finds empirical evidence in support of the EFC hypothesis for OECD countries: results for output are driven by changes in tax rates and are robust to how one defines a high-debt regime and how one measures austerity

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34262
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9344
    Subjects: AUSTERITY; DEBT BURDEN; DEBT SUSTAINABILITY; ECONOMIC CRISIS; ECONOMIC SHOCK; FISCAL CONSOLIDATION; FISCAL POLICY; FISCAL SHOCK; STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Gesehen am 10.08.2020
  2. The information content of capital controls
    Author: Nie, Owen
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, Washington, DC, USA

    Capital controls, policy measures used by governments to regulate cross-country financial flows, have become standard policy options in many emerging market economies. This paper will focus on what capital controls reveal about the state of the... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Capital controls, policy measures used by governments to regulate cross-country financial flows, have become standard policy options in many emerging market economies. This paper will focus on what capital controls reveal about the state of the economy and the implications of such revelation for policy efficacy. Using a small open economy model with a collateral constraint and over-borrowing relative to the social optimum, I incorporate a representative agent's Bayesian updating of information in response to change in policy and show that the efficacy of capital controls to contain financial crises and improve welfare could be undermined if the agent rationally learns from policy. Empirically, this paper finds that capital controls convey important information market participants use to improve their understanding of fundamentals. This paper highlights the need for policymakers to take into account the un-intended consequences of information revelation in the design of capital ow management policies.

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34261
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9343
    Subjects: CAPITAL CONTROLS; CAPITAL FLOWS; EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES; FINANCIAL CRISIS; FINANCIAL FLOWS; FINANCIAL REGULATION; MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY; NOWCASTING
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. COVID-19 and EMDE corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities
    a simple stress-test approach
    Author: Feyen, Erik; Dancausa, Fernando; Gurhy, Bryan; Nie, Owen
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, [Washington, DC, USA]

    This paper conducts a simple stress test to gauge the ability of listed nonfinancial corporates to withstand shocks to earnings and receivables. It targets two basic accounting ratios that capture a firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities... more

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    This paper conducts a simple stress test to gauge the ability of listed nonfinancial corporates to withstand shocks to earnings and receivables. It targets two basic accounting ratios that capture a firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities and interest expenses. The full sample consists of almost 17,000 firms in 73 emerging markets and developing economies and represents USD 22.1 trillion in total assets and USD 6.05 trillion in total debt. The findings show that, prior to the pandemic, almost 60 percent of the debt was associated with firms that already exhibited vulnerabilities according to at least one ratio. A 30-percent shock to earnings and receivables raises this to 88 percent, of which 29 percentage points is vulnerable in terms of both indicators, a 230-percent increase compared with before to the pandemic. Firms in East Asia and Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia appear to be the most exposed. Some countries with vulnerable corporate sectors also display weaknesses in insolvency frameworks, which may impede restructurings and write-downs and contribute to a surge in socially inefficient liquidations of cash-strapped but otherwise viable firms

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9324
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. COVID-19 and EMDE corporate balance sheet vulnerabilities
    a simple stress-test approach
    Author: Feyen, Erik; Dancausa, Fernando; Gurhy, Bryan; Nie, Owen
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, [Washington, DC, USA]

    This paper conducts a simple stress test to gauge the ability of listed nonfinancial corporates to withstand shocks to earnings and receivables. It targets two basic accounting ratios that capture a firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities... more

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    This paper conducts a simple stress test to gauge the ability of listed nonfinancial corporates to withstand shocks to earnings and receivables. It targets two basic accounting ratios that capture a firm's ability to cover its short-term liabilities and interest expenses. The full sample consists of almost 17,000 firms in 73 emerging markets and developing economies and represents USD 22.1 trillion in total assets and USD 6.05 trillion in total debt. The findings show that, prior to the pandemic, almost 60 percent of the debt was associated with firms that already exhibited vulnerabilities according to at least one ratio. A 30-percent shock to earnings and receivables raises this to 88 percent, of which 29 percentage points is vulnerable in terms of both indicators, a 230-percent increase compared with before to the pandemic. Firms in East Asia and Pacific, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia appear to be the most exposed. Some countries with vulnerable corporate sectors also display weaknesses in insolvency frameworks, which may impede restructurings and write-downs and contribute to a surge in socially inefficient liquidations of cash-strapped but otherwise viable firms

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9324
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Expansionary fiscal austerity
    new international evidence
    Author: Nie, Owen
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, Washington, DC, USA

    The expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis states that fiscal austerity can increase output or consumption when a country is under heavy debt burdens because it sends positive signal about the country's solvency situation and long-term... more

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    The expansionary fiscal contraction (EFC) hypothesis states that fiscal austerity can increase output or consumption when a country is under heavy debt burdens because it sends positive signal about the country's solvency situation and long-term economic wellbeing. Empirical tests of this hypothesis have suffered from identification concerns due to data sources and empirical methodology. Using a sample of OECD countries between 1978 and 2014, this paper combines new IMF narrative data and the proxy structural Vector Auto-regression (SVAR) method to examine whether fiscal austerities can be expansionary when debt levels are high. Fiscal austerities are measured as 1) narrative fiscal shocks and 2) structural shocks from a proxy SVAR. Additionally, this paper uses a model-based approach to determine the cutoff debt level beyond which EFC is expected to be observed. This paper finds empirical evidence in support of the EFC hypothesis for OECD countries: results for output are driven by changes in tax rates and are robust to how one defines a high-debt regime and how one measures austerity

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34262
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9344
    Subjects: AUSTERITY; DEBT BURDEN; DEBT SUSTAINABILITY; ECONOMIC CRISIS; ECONOMIC SHOCK; FISCAL CONSOLIDATION; FISCAL POLICY; FISCAL SHOCK; STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Gesehen am 10.08.2020
  6. The information content of capital controls
    Author: Nie, Owen
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice, Washington, DC, USA

    Capital controls, policy measures used by governments to regulate cross-country financial flows, have become standard policy options in many emerging market economies. This paper will focus on what capital controls reveal about the state of the... more

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    Capital controls, policy measures used by governments to regulate cross-country financial flows, have become standard policy options in many emerging market economies. This paper will focus on what capital controls reveal about the state of the economy and the implications of such revelation for policy efficacy. Using a small open economy model with a collateral constraint and over-borrowing relative to the social optimum, I incorporate a representative agent's Bayesian updating of information in response to change in policy and show that the efficacy of capital controls to contain financial crises and improve welfare could be undermined if the agent rationally learns from policy. Empirically, this paper finds that capital controls convey important information market participants use to improve their understanding of fundamentals. This paper highlights the need for policymakers to take into account the un-intended consequences of information revelation in the design of capital ow management policies.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10986/34261
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9343
    Subjects: CAPITAL CONTROLS; CAPITAL FLOWS; EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES; FINANCIAL CRISIS; FINANCIAL FLOWS; FINANCIAL REGULATION; MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY; NOWCASTING
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen