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  1. The measurement and macro-relevance of corruption
    a big data approach
    Author: Hlatshwayo, Sandile; Oeking, Anne; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Corvino, David; Shukla, Ananya; Leigh, Lamin
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it-and its effects-inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of... more

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    Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it-and its effects-inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents' assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781484373095
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 195
    Subjects: Anti-Corruption Effort; Corruption; NIC Country; NIC Shock; WP
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The digital revolution in Asia and its macroeconomic effects
    Author: Saadi Sedik, Tahsin; Chen, Sally; Feyzioğlu, Necmettin Tarhan; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Gupta, Souvik; Jahan, Sarwat; Jauregui, Juan Manuel; Kinda, Tidiane; Long, Vipichbolreach; Loukoianova, Elena; Mourmouras, Alexandros Thomas; Nozaki, Masahiro; Paroutzoglou, Simon; Sullivan, Cormac; Yoo, Jiae; Zhang, Longmei
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan

    Asia is at the forefront of the digital revolution, which promises a radical transformation of the global economy, and indeed of society itself, while at the same time threatening substantial disruptions and dislocation. For instance, workers worry... more

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    Asia is at the forefront of the digital revolution, which promises a radical transformation of the global economy, and indeed of society itself, while at the same time threatening substantial disruptions and dislocation. For instance, workers worry that robots will make them obsolete, while financial supervisors are concerned about the risks to financial stability posed by the latest fintech innovations. At the same time, digitalization may well be a key driver of productivity growth and improved welfare. This paper focuses on whether the digital revolution in Asia is driving growth or disrupting it. Given the diversity of digital innovations and the sparsity of data, the paper uses a multipronged approach to analyze the digital economy in Asia.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/222796
    Series: ADBI working paper series ; no. 1029 (October 2019)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. New insights into ECCU's tourism sector competitiveness
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Zhao, Li; Brito, Steve; Parlak, Vivian
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the... more

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    Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU's competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares

     
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  4. New insights into ECCU's tourism sector competitiveness
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Zhao, Li; Brito, Steve; Parlak, Vivian
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU's competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498320818
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 154
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Perfect storm
    climate change and tourism
    Author: Cevik, Serhan; Ghazanchyan, Manuk
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the world's attention is on dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change remains a greater existential threat to vulnerable countries that are highly dependent on a weather-sensitive sector like tourism. Using a novel multidimensional... more

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    While the world's attention is on dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change remains a greater existential threat to vulnerable countries that are highly dependent on a weather-sensitive sector like tourism. Using a novel multidimensional index, this study investigates the long-term impact of climate change vulnerability on international tourism in a panel of 15 Caribbean countries over the period 1995-2017. Empirical results show that climate vulnerability already has a statistically and economically significant negative effect on international tourism revenues across the region. As extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe over time, our findings indicate that the Caribbean countries need to pursue comprehensive adaptation policies to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513559575
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 243
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The lack of convergence of Latin-America compared with CESEE
    is low investment to blame?
    Author: Bakker, Bas B.; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Ho, Alex; Nanda, Vibha
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result... more

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    In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer because of lower human capital levels and lower TFP-not because of a lower capital-output ratio. Cross-country differences of TFP in turn are associated with differences in human capital, governance and business climate indicators. We demonstrate that once levels of human capital and governance are taken into account, there is strong conditional cross-country convergence. Poor countries with high levels of human capital, governance or business climate indicators converge rapidly. Poor countries without those attributes do not. We show that low investment is the result of low TFP and thus GDP growth-not the cause

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513547886
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 98
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 83 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Tax incentives in Cambodia
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Klemm, Alexander; Zhou, Yong Sarah
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Cambodia, like its regional peers, offers a number of tax incentives to investors. This paper reviews these incentives to assess their costs and benefits, including their likely effectiveness in attracting capital and in supporting the... more

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    Cambodia, like its regional peers, offers a number of tax incentives to investors. This paper reviews these incentives to assess their costs and benefits, including their likely effectiveness in attracting capital and in supporting the diversification strategy. It finds that an important incentive, the tax holiday, differs materially from practice elsewhere in offering a deferral rather than exempting from tax and may not be very effective. Moreover, other features of the tax system, such as the high withholding rate on dividends, imply relatively high effective tax rates for foreign investors. The paper discusses potential reforms that weigh revenue and other costs of tax incentives against the need for a competitive tax system, including a shift from tax holidays toward investment allowances

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9781484347522
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 71
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. A new look at the determinants of growth in Asian countries
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Stotsky, Janet G.; Zhang, Qianqian
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C

    This study examines the drivers of growth in Asian countries, with focus on the role of investment, the exchange rate regime, financial risk, and capital account openness. We use a panel data set of a sample of Asian countries over the period 1980 to... more

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    This study examines the drivers of growth in Asian countries, with focus on the role of investment, the exchange rate regime, financial risk, and capital account openness. We use a panel data set of a sample of Asian countries over the period 1980 to 2012. Our results indicate that private and public investments are strong drivers of growth, while more limited evidence is found that reduced financial risk and higher foreign direct investment support growth. The exchange rate regime does not appear to be a strongly significant determinant of growth, but some specifications suggest that more flexible regimes are beneficial in this respect. Financial crises have a stronger dampening effect on growth in countries with more open capital accounts

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513524535; 1513524534
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    Series: IMF working paper ; 15/195
    Subjects: Wechselkurssystem; Investition; Wirtschaftswachstum; Asien
    Scope: Online-Ressource (32 S.), graph. Darst.
  9. Drivers of growth
    evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Stotsky, Janet G.
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C

    This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government... more

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    This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government consumption, the exchange regime and real exchange rate, and current account liberalization, using various econometric methodologies, including fixed and random effects models, with cluster-robust standard errors. We find that, depending on the specification, higher private and public investments boost growth. Some evidence is found that government consumption exerts a drag on growth and that more flexible exchange regimes are beneficial to growth. The real exchange rate and liberalization variables are not significant

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 1475516487; 9781475516487
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    Series: IMF Working Papers ; Working Paper No. 13/236
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Wechselkurssystem; Kaufkraftparität; Subsahara-Afrika
    Scope: Online-Ressource (38 p)
  10. Collect more, spend better
    public investment in Asian frontier markets
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Marto, Ricardo; Jonáš, Jiří; Douglass, Kaitlyn
    Published: January 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt... more

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    We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt sustainability for three fast-growing Southeast Asian economies: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. We show that a gradual public investment profile is more favorable than front-loading capital spending because we assume governments are able to gradually learn how to invest more efficiently, accelerating public capital accumulation and therefore growth. We discuss the pros and cons of alternative financing options and identify the financing mix that generates the best macroeconomic outcome. Sometimes overlooked, improving the efficiency of revenue collection over time may ease the burden of fiscal adjustment, achieving higher GDP growth with substantially lower debt-to-GDP ratios, and will help policymakers efficiently meet the challenge of addressing large infrastructure gaps while maintaining debt sustainability

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781475570892
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/17, 10
    Subjects: Öffentliche Investition; Wirtschaftswachstum; Schuldenmanagement; Nachhaltigkeit; Finanzpolitik; Steuereinnahmen; Kambodscha; Sri Lanka; Vietnam
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Lao P.D.R.
    assessing the quality of trade statistics
    Author: Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Bikoi, Theodore Pierre
    Published: October 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50... more

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    This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781484325742
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/17, 251
    Subjects: Außenhandelsstatistik; Datenqualität; Laos
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The measurement and macro-relevance of corruption
    a big data approach
    Author: Hlatshwayo, Sandile; Oeking, Anne; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Corvino, David; Shukla, Ananya; Leigh, Lamin
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it-and its effects-inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of... more

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    Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it-and its effects-inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time variation due to the sticky nature of perception-based measures, reliance on a limited pool of experts, and an inability to distinguish between corruption and institutional capacity gaps. This paper attempts to address these limitations by leveraging news media coverage of corruption. We contribute to the literature by constructing the first big data, cross-country news flow indices of corruption (NIC) and anti-corruption (anti-NIC) by running country-specific search algorithms over more than 665 million international news articles. These indices correlate well with existing measures of corruption but offer additional richness in their time-series variation. Drawing on theory from the corporate finance and behavioral economics literature, we also test to what extent news about corruption and anti-corruption efforts affects economic agents' assessments of corruption and, in turn, economic outcomes. We find that NIC shocks appear to negatively impact both financial (e.g., stock market returns and yield spreads) and real variables (e.g., growth), albeit with some country heterogeneity. On average, NIC shocks lower real per capita GDP growth by 3 percentage points over a two-year period, illustrating persistence in the effect of such shocks. Conversely, there is suggestive evidence that anti-NIC efforts appear to have a sustained positive macro impact only when paired with meaningful institutional strengthening, proxied by capacity development efforts

     
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 195
    Subjects: Anti-Corruption Effort; Corruption; NIC Country; NIC Shock; WP
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Lao P.D.R.
    assessing the quality of trade statistics
    Author: Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Bikoi, Theodore Pierre
    Published: October 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50... more

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    This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed

     
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/17, 251
    Subjects: Außenhandelsstatistik; Datenqualität; Laos
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Perfect storm
    climate change and tourism
    Author: Cevik, Serhan; Ghazanchyan, Manuk
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the world's attention is on dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change remains a greater existential threat to vulnerable countries that are highly dependent on a weather-sensitive sector like tourism. Using a novel multidimensional... more

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    While the world's attention is on dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change remains a greater existential threat to vulnerable countries that are highly dependent on a weather-sensitive sector like tourism. Using a novel multidimensional index, this study investigates the long-term impact of climate change vulnerability on international tourism in a panel of 15 Caribbean countries over the period 1995-2017. Empirical results show that climate vulnerability already has a statistically and economically significant negative effect on international tourism revenues across the region. As extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe over time, our findings indicate that the Caribbean countries need to pursue comprehensive adaptation policies to reduce vulnerabilities to climate change

     
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  15. Tax incentives in Cambodia
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Klemm, Alexander; Zhou, Yong Sarah
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Cambodia, like its regional peers, offers a number of tax incentives to investors. This paper reviews these incentives to assess their costs and benefits, including their likely effectiveness in attracting capital and in supporting the... more

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    Cambodia, like its regional peers, offers a number of tax incentives to investors. This paper reviews these incentives to assess their costs and benefits, including their likely effectiveness in attracting capital and in supporting the diversification strategy. It finds that an important incentive, the tax holiday, differs materially from practice elsewhere in offering a deferral rather than exempting from tax and may not be very effective. Moreover, other features of the tax system, such as the high withholding rate on dividends, imply relatively high effective tax rates for foreign investors. The paper discusses potential reforms that weigh revenue and other costs of tax incentives against the need for a competitive tax system, including a shift from tax holidays toward investment allowances

     
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  16. The lack of convergence of Latin-America compared with CESEE
    is low investment to blame?
    Author: Bakker, Bas B.; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Ho, Alex; Nanda, Vibha
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result... more

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    In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer because of lower human capital levels and lower TFP-not because of a lower capital-output ratio. Cross-country differences of TFP in turn are associated with differences in human capital, governance and business climate indicators. We demonstrate that once levels of human capital and governance are taken into account, there is strong conditional cross-country convergence. Poor countries with high levels of human capital, governance or business climate indicators converge rapidly. Poor countries without those attributes do not. We show that low investment is the result of low TFP and thus GDP growth-not the cause

     
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  17. Drivers of growth
    evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Stotsky, Janet G.
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  IMF, Washington, DC

    This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government... more

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    This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government consumption, the exchange regime and real exchange rate, and current account liberalization, using various econometric methodologies, including fixed and random effects models, with cluster-robust standard errors. We find that, depending on the specification, higher private and public investments boost growth. Some evidence is found that government consumpt

     
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    Language: English
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    ISBN: 9781475516487
    Series: IMF working paper ; 13/236
    IMF Working Papers
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Wechselkurssystem; Kaufkraftparität; Subsahara-Afrika; Economic development -- Africa; Africa -- Economic conditions; Electronic books
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    Description based upon print version of record

    Cover; Contents; I. Drivers of African Economic Growth; A. Introduction; B. Literature Review; C. Data and Descriptive Analysis; Figures; 1. Real GDP Growth per Capita and Investment; 2. Real GDP Growth per Capita and Consumption; 3. Real GDP Growth per Capita and Exchange Rate Regimes (IMF de jure classification); 4. Real GDP Growth per Capita and Exchange Rate Regimes (IMF de facto classification; D. Empirical Specification; Tables; 1a. Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime, 1999-2011; 1b. Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime, Non-Oil Sample, 1999-2011

    1c. Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime, Middle and Low Income Sample,1999-20112a. Non-Agricultural Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime, 1999-2011; 2b. Non-Agricultural Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime, Non-Oil Sample, 1999-2011; 2c. Non-Agricultural Growth and the Exchange Rate Regime, Middle and Low Income Sample, 1999-2011; E. Conclusions and Policy Implications; References; Appendixes; A. African Countries in the Sample; B. De Jure and de Facto Classification
  18. Sri Lanka
    selected issues paper
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Jonáš, Jiří; Schneider, Todd T.
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  IMF, Washington, DC

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    Series: IMF country report ; 14/286
    Subjects: Wirtschaftslage; Sri Lanka
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  19. Unraveling the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Sri Lanka
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  IMF, Washington, DC

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    ISBN: 9781484311660
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    Series: IMF working paper ; 14/190
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Finanzmarkt; VAR-Modell; Sri Lanka
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  20. A new look at the determinants of growth in Asian countries
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Stotsky, Janet G.; Zhang, Qianqian
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C

    This study examines the drivers of growth in Asian countries, with focus on the role of investment, the exchange rate regime, financial risk, and capital account openness. We use a panel data set of a sample of Asian countries over the period 1980 to... more

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    This study examines the drivers of growth in Asian countries, with focus on the role of investment, the exchange rate regime, financial risk, and capital account openness. We use a panel data set of a sample of Asian countries over the period 1980 to 2012. Our results indicate that private and public investments are strong drivers of growth, while more limited evidence is found that reduced financial risk and higher foreign direct investment support growth. The exchange rate regime does not appear to be a strongly significant determinant of growth, but some specifications suggest that more flexible regimes are beneficial in this respect. Financial crises have a stronger dampening effect on growth in countries with more open capital accounts

     
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  21. Drivers of growth
    evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Stotsky, Janet G.
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C

    This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government... more

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    This study examines the drivers of growth in Sub-Saharan African countries, using aggregate data, from the past decade. We correlate recent growth experience to key determinants of growth, including private and public investment, government consumption, the exchange regime and real exchange rate, and current account liberalization, using various econometric methodologies, including fixed and random effects models, with cluster-robust standard errors. We find that, depending on the specification, higher private and public investments boost growth. Some evidence is found that government consumption exerts a drag on growth and that more flexible exchange regimes are beneficial to growth. The real exchange rate and liberalization variables are not significant

     
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  22. Collect more, spend better
    public investment in Asian frontier markets
    Author: Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Marto, Ricardo; Jonáš, Jiří; Douglass, Kaitlyn
    Published: January 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt... more

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    We use a dynamic small open economy model to explore the macroeconomic impact of alternative public investment scaling-up scenarios, analyzing how improving the efficiency of capital spending and of tax revenue collection affect growth and debt sustainability for three fast-growing Southeast Asian economies: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. We show that a gradual public investment profile is more favorable than front-loading capital spending because we assume governments are able to gradually learn how to invest more efficiently, accelerating public capital accumulation and therefore growth. We discuss the pros and cons of alternative financing options and identify the financing mix that generates the best macroeconomic outcome. Sometimes overlooked, improving the efficiency of revenue collection over time may ease the burden of fiscal adjustment, achieving higher GDP growth with substantially lower debt-to-GDP ratios, and will help policymakers efficiently meet the challenge of addressing large infrastructure gaps while maintaining debt sustainability

     
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