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Displaying results 1 to 12 of 12.

  1. Does one size fit all in the Euro Area?
    some counterfactual evidence
    Author: Destefanis, Sergio; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel
    Published: June 2019
    Publisher:  TU Wien, SWM ECON, Economics, Vienna, Austria

    This paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence that this claim is true for the periods of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign... more

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    This paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence that this claim is true for the periods of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. For the Euro Area as a whole, the deterioration of the tradeoff becomes insignificant with Draghi's "whatever it takes" announcement onwards. However, a more detailed analysis shows that the detrimental effect of the Euro is more severe and long-lasting for peripheral countries, pointing to structural differences among Euro Area countries as a key element of the detrimental effect of the Euro. We base our results on a novel empirical strategy that, consistently with monetary theory, models the joint determination of the variability of inflation and output conditional on structural supply shocks. Moreover, our findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns related to adoption of the Euro.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/200140
    Series: ECON WPS ; 2019, 05
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Datei wurde von der herausgebenden Institution entfernt
  2. The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound
    Author: Amendola, Adalgiso; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance,... more

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    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498314947
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 133
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The euro area government spending multiplier in demand- and supply-driven recessions?
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Research Unit in Economics, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, TU Wien, [Wien]

    We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between... more

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    We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Median multipliers range from -0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factoraugmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/276967
    Series: ECON WPS - working papers in economic theory and policy ; no. 2023, 02 (August 2023)
    Subjects: Fiscal Multiplier; Business Cycle; Interacted Panel VAR; Factor Models; Euro Area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound
    Author: Amendola, Adalgiso; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance,... more

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    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Content information
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498314947
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 133
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The impact of r-g on the Euro-Area government spending multiplier
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median... more

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    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513569512
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 39
    Subjects: Fiscal multiplier; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; r-g
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Building back better
    how big are green spending multipliers?
    Author: Batini, Nicoletta; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni; Waldron, Anthony
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar... more

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    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar's worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513574462
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 87
    Subjects: green multiplier; green stimulus; clean energy; conservation spending; nuclear energy; biodiversity; nature-based solutions; agricultural subsidies; fossil fuels; Bayesian Analysis; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The effects of fiscal shocks in SVAR models
    a graphical modelling approach
    Author: Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  School of Economics, Mathematics an Statistics, Birkbeck College, Univ. of London, London

    We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical... more

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    We apply graphical modelling theory to identify fiscal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches of which achieve identification by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions of graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature à la Blanchard and Perotti (2002), and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks confirm that our findings are not driven by sample selection. -- Fiscal policy ; SVAR ; graphical modelling

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Birkbeck working papers in economics & finance ; 10,06
    Subjects: Finanzpolitik; Schock; VAR-Modell; Deskriptive Statistik; USA
    Scope: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.
  8. The euro area government spending multiplier in demand- and supply-driven recessions
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between... more

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    We estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are 2-3 times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Median multipliers range from -0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into account.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/260808
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9678 (2022)
    Subjects: fiscal multiplier; business cycle; interacted panel VAR; factor models; Euro Area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Does one size fit all in the Euro Area?
    some counterfactual evidence
    Author: Destefanis, Sergio; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel
    Published: January 13, 2021
    Publisher:  TU Wien, SWM ECON, Economics, Vienna, Austria

    This paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence supporting this claim for the periods of the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis.... more

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    This paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence supporting this claim for the periods of the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The deterioration of the tradeoff becomes insignificant only after Draghi's 'whatever it takes' announcement. Results show that the detrimental effect of the Euro is more severe for peripheral countries. We base our results on a novel empirical strategy that, consistently with monetary theory, models the joint determination of the variability of inflation and output conditional on structural supply and demand shocks.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228867
    Series: ECON WPS ; 2019, 05
    Subjects: Euro Area; Monetary Policy; Difference-in-Differences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound
    evidence from the United States
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Gasteiger, Emanuel
    Published: April 2020
    Publisher:  TU Wien, SWM ECON, Economics, Vienna, Austria

    We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a Factor-Augmented Interacted Vector Autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the... more

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    We estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a Factor-Augmented Interacted Vector Autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle, and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3:56 to 3:79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2:31 to 3:05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB.

     
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    hdl: 10419/216825
    Series: ECON WPS ; 2020, 04
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. The impact of r-g on the Euro-Area government spending multiplier
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median... more

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    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513569512
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 39
    Subjects: Fiscal multiplier; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; r-g
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Building back better
    how big are green spending multipliers?
    Author: Batini, Nicoletta; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni; Waldron, Anthony
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar... more

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    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar's worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513574462
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 87
    Subjects: green multiplier; green stimulus; clean energy; conservation spending; nuclear energy; biodiversity; nature-based solutions; agricultural subsidies; fossil fuels; Bayesian Analysis; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen