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  1. The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound
    Author: Amendola, Adalgiso; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance,... more

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    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498314947
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 133
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The euro-area government spending multiplier at the effective lower bound
    Author: Amendola, Adalgiso; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance,... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the overall monetary policy stance, captured by a shadow monetary policy rate. In the short run (one year), whether the fiscal shock occurs when the economy is at the effective lower bound (ELB) or in normal times does not seem to matter for the size of the multiplier. However, as the time horizon increases, multipliers diverge across the two regimes. In the medium run (three years), the average multiplier is about 1 in normal times and between 1.6 and 2.8 at the ELB, depending on the specification. The difference between the two multipliers is distributed largely away from zero. More generally, the multiplier is inversely correlated with the level of the shadow monetary policy rate. In addition, we verify that EA data lend support to the view that the multiplier is larger in periods of economic slack, and we show that the shadow rate and the state of the business cycle are autonomously correlated with its size. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498314947
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 133
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The impact of r-g on the Euro-Area government spending multiplier
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513569512
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 39
    Subjects: Fiscal multiplier; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; r-g
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Building back better
    how big are green spending multipliers?
    Author: Batini, Nicoletta; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni; Waldron, Anthony
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar's worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513574462
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 87
    Subjects: green multiplier; green stimulus; clean energy; conservation spending; nuclear energy; biodiversity; nature-based solutions; agricultural subsidies; fossil fuels; Bayesian Analysis; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The impact of r-g on the Euro-Area government spending multiplier
    Author: Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    We compute government spending multipliers for the Euro Area (EA) contingent on the interestgrowth differential, the so-called r-g. Whether the fiscal shock occurs when r-g is positive or negative matters for the size of the multiplier. Median estimates vary conditional on the specification, but the difference between multipliers in the negative and positive r-g regimes differs systematically from zero with very high probability. Over the medium run (5 years), median cumulated multipliers range between 1.22 and 1.77 when r-g is negative, and between 0.51 and 1.26 when r-g is positive. We show that the results are not driven by the state of the business cycle, the monetary policy stance, or the level of government debt, and that the multiplier is inversely correlated with r-g. The calculations are based on the estimates of a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model. The econometric approach deals with several technical problems highlighted in the empirical macroeconomic literature, including the issues of fiscal foresight and limited information

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513569512
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 39
    Subjects: Fiscal multiplier; Panel VAR; Factor models; Euro Area; r-g
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Building back better
    how big are green spending multipliers?
    Author: Batini, Nicoletta; Di Serio, Mario; Fragetta, Matteo; Melina, Giovanni; Waldron, Anthony
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar... more

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    This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar's worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513574462
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 87
    Subjects: green multiplier; green stimulus; clean energy; conservation spending; nuclear energy; biodiversity; nature-based solutions; agricultural subsidies; fossil fuels; Bayesian Analysis; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen