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Displaying results 176 to 200 of 240.

  1. The wee divergence
    business creation and political turmoil in Ireland before 1900
    Author: Adams, R. J. C.; Campbell, Gareth; Coyle, Christopher; Turner, John D.
    Published: January 2022
    Publisher:  Queen's University Centre for Economic History, Belfast

    What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test... more

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    What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising from the Home Rule movement resulted in reduced entrepreneurial activity and business investment. We find that increased political instability led to a significant divergence of business creation between Scotland and Ireland. Our findings suggest that the effects of political instability on entrepreneurship were most acute in the parts of Ireland that were most concerned by potential changes.

     
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    Series: QUCEH working paper series ; 22, 01
    Subjects: Ireland; Scotland; Home Rule; entrepreneurship; political risk; uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. A two-stage robust model for a reliable p-center facility location problem
    Author: Du, Bo; Zhou, Hong; Leus, Roel
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Leuven, België

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    Series: KBI ; KBI_18, 01
    Subjects: facility location; uncertainty; reliable network design; p-center problem; robust optimization
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Uncertainty effects on the financial sector
    international evidence
    Author: Baum, Christopher F.; Caglayan, Mustafa; Xu, Bing
    Published: December 9, 2017
    Publisher:  Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

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    Series: Boston College working papers in economics ; number 939
    Subjects: financial depth; profitability; non-interest income; stability; uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Prospects of cash crop production in CBSR of Russia
    Author: Chetvertakov, Sergey
    Published: 2017

    Russian crop production reflects a significant rise in the cultivation of corn and soybeans. One of the highest growth rates, along with a significant share in the national output, can be found in the Central Black Soil Region (CBSR). The rapid... more

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    Russian crop production reflects a significant rise in the cultivation of corn and soybeans. One of the highest growth rates, along with a significant share in the national output, can be found in the Central Black Soil Region (CBSR). The rapid expansion of corn and soybeans acreage raises a serious question about any further development of agricultural production in Russia. The aim of this thesis is to determine the current trends, risks, and future directions in the production of cash crops in CBSR of Russia. This thesis presents four selected studies on the topic of prospects of cash cro...

     
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    Contributor: Isermeyer, Folkhard (AkademischeR BetreuerIn); Theuvsen, Ludwig (AkademischeR BetreuerIn); Brümmer, Bernhard (AkademischeR BetreuerIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Dissertation
    Format: Online
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    Subjects: Russia; corn; soybeans; risk; uncertainty; welfare; survey; focus group discussion; cropping pattern; GM; genetically modified
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen, Diagramme
    Notes:

    Kumulative Arbeit

    Dissertation, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, 2017
  5. Maximizing returns from payments for ecosystem services
    incorporating externality effects of land management
    Author: Eiswerth, Mark; Van Kooten, Gerrit C.
    Published: November 2017
    Publisher:  REPA Resource Economics & Policy Analysis Research Group, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Victoria

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    Series: Working paper / Resource Economics & Policy Analysis Research Group, Department of Economics, University of Victoria ; 2017, 06
    Subjects: payments for ecosystem services; water quality; best management practices; externalities; dynamic optimization; uncertainty; principal-agent problems
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten)
  6. Economic approaches to sustainable land use in Ecuador
    Compensation payments and diversification on areas of profitable intensive farming
    Author: Castro, Luz Maria
    Published: [2017?]

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    Contributor: Knoke, Thomas (AkademischeR BetreuerIn); Weber, Michael (AkademischeR BetreuerIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Dissertation
    Format: Online
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    Subjects: land use; organic farming; portfolio optimization; compensation; uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 145 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Dissertation, Technische Universität München, 2017
  7. Reputation and multilateral punishment under uncertainty
    Author: Hajikhameneh, Aidin; Rubin, Jared
    Published: August 4, 2017
    Publisher:  [Chapman University, Economic Science Institute], [Orange, CA]

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    Series: [Working papers / Chapman University, Economic Science Institute ; 17, 14]
    Subjects: multilateral punishment; reputation; uncertainty; exchange; lab experiment; trust game
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Taxonomy of global risk, uncertainty, and volatility measures
    Author: Datta, Deepa Dhume; Londono, Juan M.; Sun, Bo; Beltran, Daniel; Ferreira, Thiago; Iacoviello, Matteo; Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.; Li, Canlin; Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del; Rogers, John H.
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

    A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in... more

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    A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty measures differ across multiple dimensions, including the method of calculation, the underlying outcome (that is, the asset price or macroeconomic variable), and the horizon at which they are calculated. Therefore, in this paper, we review the literature on global risk, uncertainty, and volatility measures drawing on internal and external academic research as well as ongoing monitoring conducted by the Federal Reserve Board's economics divisions to catalog measures by method of data collection, computation, and subject. We first explore a set of non asset-marketbased measures of risk and uncertainty, including news-based and survey-based uncertainty measures of monetary policy and macroeconomic outcomes. We then turn to asset-market-based measures of risk uncertainty for equity prices, interest rates, currencies, oil prices, and inflation

     
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    Series: International finance discussion papers ; number1216 (November 2017)
    FRB International Finance Discussion Paper ; No. 1216
    Subjects: Risk; uncertainty; volatility; monetary policy; geopolitical risk; equities; interest rates; exchange rates; commodities; inflation; variance risk premium
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Sequential exporting across countries and products
    Author: Albornoz, Facundo; Calvo Pardo, Héctor F.; Corcos, Gregory; Ornelas, Emanuel
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Series: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1774 (June 2021)
    Subjects: export dynamics; experimentation; uncertainty; multiproduct firms; market inter-dependence
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Uncertainty, misallocation and the life-cycle growth of firms
    Author: Mäkynen, Eero; Vähämaa, Oskari
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Aboa Centre for Economics, Turku

    We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong... more

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    We develop a measure of static misallocation that separates uncertainty from misallocation generated by tax-like distortions. In the Finnish firm-level data, uncertainty accounts for the majority of ex post misallocation and explains a strong decreasing age-dependent trend in it. To understand these observations, we set up a life-cycle model of firm growth where new firms have to learn their productivity. We match our model with the salient features of the data and show that our model implies idiosyncratic distortions, in line with our accounting approach. According to our quantitative results, uncertainty suppresses output by 38%, while misallocation has a 26% negative effect on output.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper / Aboa Centre for Economics ; no. 146
    Subjects: firm dynamics; uncertainty; misallocation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. On the design of labor market programs as stabilization policies
    Author: Jung, Euiyoung
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Paris School of Economics, Paris

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    Series: Working paper / Paris School of Economics ; no 2021, 36
    Subjects: new keynesian; uncertainty; unemployment; incomplete markets; labor market policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 84 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Green consumption: the impact of trust and pessimism
    Author: Montoya Villalobos, Maria José
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  EconomiX - UMR7235, Université Paris Nanterre, Nanterre

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    Series: Working paper / EconomiX ; 2021, 9
    Subjects: Green consumption; trust; pessimism; uncertainty; impure public goods
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  13. Pandemic-era uncertainty on Main Street and Wall Street
    Author: Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Davis, Steven J.; Parker, Nicholas; Altig, David; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Atlanta, GA

    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty... more

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    We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this sense, decision makers in nonfinancial businesses share some of the optimism that seems manifest in equity markets. Third, and despite the positive shift in tail risks, overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in demand and in potential gross domestic product.

     
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    Series: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ; 2021,2 (January 2021)
    Subjects: business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Under attack
    terrorism and international trade in France, 2014-16
    Author: Nitsch, Volker; Rabaud, Isabelle
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France... more

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    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France’s trade in goods, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country’s trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first six months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

     
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    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9108 (2021)
    Subjects: shock; insecurity; uncertainty; terrorism; international trade; France
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Sequential exporting across countries and products
    Author: Albornoz, Facundo; Calvo Pardo, Héctor F.; Corcos, Gregory; Ornelas, Emanuel
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a consequence, exporters add... more

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    How do exporters expand their product scope and geographical presence? We argue that new exporters are uncertain about their profitability in different countries and products, but learn it as they start to export. As a consequence, exporters add products and countries sequentially, in an interdependent process. Exploiting disaggregated data on French exporters, we find empirical support consistent with such a mechanism, where firms learn from their initial export experiences and then adjust their sales, number of products and destination countries accordingly. Our results indicate that part of the learning is firm-specific, and not merely product- or market-specific. Furthermore, we find that firms tend to expand in the sub-extensive margin first by widening product scope within a destination and later by entering new destinations; and that firms’ core products are particularly resilient despite being used to “test the waters” when entering additional countries.

     
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    hdl: 10419/236661
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9119 (2021)
    Subjects: export dynamics; experimentation; uncertainty; multiproduct firms; market interdependence
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Monetary policy and the management of uncertainty
    a narrative approach
    Author: Tuckett, David; Holmes, Douglas; Pearson, Alice; Chaplin, Graeme
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 870
    Subjects: Monetary policy; narrative theory; uncertainty; inflation-targeting; central bank communication; macroeconomic theory; economic knowledge
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  17. Under attack: terrorism and international trade in France, 2014-16
    Author: Nitsch, Volker; Rabaud, Isabelle
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany

    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France... more

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    Terrorist events typically vary along many dimensions, making it difficult to identify their economic effects. This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism on international trade by examining a series of three large-scale terrorist incidents in France over the period from January 2015 to July 2016. Using firm-level data at monthly frequency, we document an immediate and lasting decline in cross-border trade after a mass terrorist attack. According to our estimates, France's trade in goods, which accounts for about 70 percent of the country's trade in goods and services, is reduced by more than 6 billion euros in the first six months after an attack. The reduction in trade mainly takes place along the intensive margin, with particularly strong effects for partner countries with low border barriers to France, for firms with less frequent trade activities and for homogeneous products. A possible explanation for these patterns is an increase in trade costs due to stricter security measures.

     
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    hdl: 10419/234571
    Series: Darmstadt discussion papers in economics ; Nr. 241
    Subjects: shock; insecurity; uncertainty; terrorism; international trade; France
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Seeds of learning
    uncertainty and technology adoption in an ecosystem-based adaptation game
    Author: Abidoye, Babatunde; Dissanayake, Sahan; Jacobson, Sarah
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  Williams College : Economics, Williamstown, MA, USA

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    Series: Williams College Economics Department working paper series ; 2021, 03
    Subjects: classroom game; climate change adaptation; ecosystem-based adaptation; payments for ecosystem services; technology adoption; uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. "I heard the news today, oh boy"
    an updated version of our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) - and some general thoughts on news-based economic indicators
    Author: Müller, Henrik; Hornig, Nico
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

    News-based indicators are in vogue in economics. But they tend to be applied with little consideration for the properties of news itself. In this paper, we try to shed light on the nature of this type of data. Drawing from established findings in... more

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    News-based indicators are in vogue in economics. But they tend to be applied with little consideration for the properties of news itself. In this paper, we try to shed light on the nature of this type of data. Drawing from established findings in communication science and journalism studies we argue that news-based indicators should be taken with a pinch of salt, since news is a somewhat biased representation of political and social reality. Contrary to economics and other social sciences, journalism tends to be driven by outliers, the outrageous, and the outraged. This structural dissonance between journalism and other disciplines needs to be born in mind when dealing with news content as data, and it is of particular concern in the context of economic developments. While economics and statistics are inherently backward looking, trying to make sense of the (immediate) past using models and probability distributions derived from bygone observations, journalism is about the present, and sometimes about the future. What’s going on right now? And where does it lead us? Seeking answers to these questions makes news a valuable data input, as a measure of what drives society at a given point in time. We show how taking the properties of news into consideration influences the entire process of large-scale news analysis. As an example, we update our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (Müller and Hornig 2020), setting it on a firmer footing by enlarging the newspaper corpus considerably. The new version of the UPI for Germany yields some remarkable results. At the trough of the Covid-19-induced economic crisis in Q2 of 2020, the overall indicator already decreased considerably, although it stayed at elevated levels. Deconstructing the UPI by applying the topic modelling approach Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), shows that the coverage of the pandemic has merged with the issue of climate change and its mitigation. In the past decade or so incalculable politics was the main driver of economic uncertainty perception. Now truly exogenous developments, neither elicited by the economy nor by politics, come to the fore, adding to the sense of an inherently unstable world.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/228623
    hdl: 2003/39777
    Edition: Version 1.0, 17 October 2020
    Series: DoCMA working paper ; # 2020, 2
    Subjects: uncertainty; economic policy; business cycles; Covid-19; Latent Dirichlet Allocation; Ungewissheit; Wirtschaftskreislauf; Stochastisches Modell; Wirtschaftspolitik; Indikator
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. "For the times they are a-changin'"
    gauging uncertainty perception over time
    Author: Müller, Henrik; Hornig, Nico; Rieger, Jonas
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

    This paper deals with the problem of deriving consistent time-series from newspaper contentbased topic models. In the first part, we recapitulate a few our own failed attempts, in the second one, we show some results using a twin strategy, that we... more

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    This paper deals with the problem of deriving consistent time-series from newspaper contentbased topic models. In the first part, we recapitulate a few our own failed attempts, in the second one, we show some results using a twin strategy, that we call prototyping and seeding. Given the popularity news-based indicators have assumed in econometric analyses in recent years, this seems to be a valuable exercise for researchers working on related issues. Building on earlier writings, where we use the topic modelling approach Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to gauge economic uncertainty perception, we show the difficulties that arise when a number of one-shot LDAs, performed at different points in time, are used to produce something akin of a time-series. The models' topic structures differ considerably from computation to computation. Neither parameter variations nor the accumulation of several topics to broader categories of related content are able solve the problem of incompatibleness. It is not just the content that is added at each observation point, but the very properties of LDA itself: since it uses random initializations and conditional reassignments within the iterative process, fundamentally different models can emerge when the algorithm is executed several times, even if the data and the parameter settings are identical. To tame LDA's randomness, we apply a newish "prototyping" approach to the corpus, upon which our Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) is built. Still, the outcomes vary considerably over time. To get closer to our goal, we drop the notion that LDA models should be allowed to take various forms freely at each run. Instead, the topic structure is fixated, using a "seeding" technique that distributes incoming new data to our model's existing topic structure. This approach seems to work quite well, as our consistent and plausible results show, but it is bound to run into difficulties over time either.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 2003/39995
    Edition: Version 1.0, January 2021
    Series: DoCMA working paper ; # 3
    Subjects: uncertainty; economic policy; business cycles; Covid-19; Latent Dirichlet Allocation; Seeded LDA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Sentiment and uncertainty about regulation
    Author: Sinclair, Tara M.; Xie, Zhoudan
    Published: July 4, 2021
    Publisher:  Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Canberra

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    Language: English
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    Series: CAMA working paper ; 2021, 54 (July 2021)
    Subjects: Regulation; text analysis; NLP; sentiment analysis; uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. GARCH analyses of risk and uncertainty in the theories of the interest rate of Keynes and Kalecki
    Author: Gabrisch, Hubert
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche, Wien

    This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically... more

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    This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using a reduced-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes's theory - the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/240634
    Series: Working paper / wiiw ; 191
    Subjects: uncertainty; interest rate; Keynes; Kalecki; GARCH
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  23. Uncertainty as a Poetic Principle: A Reading of the Opening Scene in Joseph Ben Zabara’s The Book of Delight
    Author: Einat-Nov, Idit
    Published: 2021

    Abstract This article proposes a new reading of the opening scene of Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara’s twelfth century (at the latest: 1209) The Book of Delight . This reading derives from the hypothesis that this art of storytelling is based on a poetic... more

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    Abstract This article proposes a new reading of the opening scene of Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara’s twelfth century (at the latest: 1209) The Book of Delight . This reading derives from the hypothesis that this art of storytelling is based on a poetic principle of uncertainty, and is therefore associated with the various forms of the ambiguous and the ambivalent (the grotesque, the uncanny, the ironic, etc.). As I have argued elsewhere about other rhymed Hebrew stories, this approach is appropriate, in my view, to the character of some of the most fascinating rhymed stories produced in medieval Hebrew literature. In the present study I suggest yet another demonstration of the poetic benefit that can accrue from the adoption of this approach.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Article (journal)
    Format: Online
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    Parent title: Enthalten in: European journal of jewish studies; Biggleswade : Brill, 2007; 15(2021), 1, Seite 153-168; Online-Ressource

    Subjects: the uncanny; uncertainty; The Book of Delight; Joseph Ben Meir Ibn Zabara
  24. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
    extension and optimization of Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis’s search term
    Author: Brandt, Richard
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Dortmund Center for Data-Based Media Analysis, [Dortmund]

    The current coronavirus pandemic is a recent example of how an unpredictable event can cause uncertainty and affect people, markets and economies worldwide. Economic indicators like the well-known and frequently cited Economic Policy Uncertainty... more

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    The current coronavirus pandemic is a recent example of how an unpredictable event can cause uncertainty and affect people, markets and economies worldwide. Economic indicators like the well-known and frequently cited Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, developed by the three economists Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis, try to capture perceptions of uncertainty and use them to generate predictions for the economic future. The index is based on a search term that is employed to select relevant elements from a population of articles. However, previous research contributions criticize the composition of the search term for being too broad and restricted to specific policy areas, thereby missing detections of new or unforeseen sources of economic uncertainty. This research note aims to modify the economists' search term in three different ways. The author introduces the term and concept of "risk", which is not considered in the original search term, adds further policy areas that can cause economic uncertainty, and extends the term "uncertainty" by including related terms and synonyms. In order to evaluate the success of the optimized search terms in selecting relevant articles from a population of articles, all search terms are applied to two randomly drawn samples, derived from an original corpus of 2,723,049 articles and a pre-filtered corpus of 514,297 articles from the German daily newspapers Handelsblatt and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The investigation period ranges from January 1994 to March 2020. For comparison, both samples are also filtered using Baker, Bloom and Davis's original search term. The different selection results are evaluated with the help of the parameters recall and precision. The results are preliminary, but encouraging. In both samples, only around every tenth relevant article is selected when Baker, Bloom and Davis's search term is applied. By modifying the original search term, the recall could be increased considerably with little disadvantages in terms of precision. The research process shows that economic uncertainties can be related to other concepts and policy areas that are not captured by the economists' original search term.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 2003/40042
    Edition: Version 1.0, February 2021
    Series: DoCMA working paper ; # 5
    Subjects: economic policy; uncertainty; risk; search term; optimization; media analyses; recall; precision
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Pricing climate risk
    Author: Jensen, Svenn; Traeger, Christian
    Published: July 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the energy balance of our planet. Various climatic feedbacks make the resulting warming over the next decades and centuries highly uncertain. We quantify how this uncertainty changes the optimal... more

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    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the energy balance of our planet. Various climatic feedbacks make the resulting warming over the next decades and centuries highly uncertain. We quantify how this uncertainty changes the optimal carbon tax in a stochastic dynamic programming implementation of an integrated assessment model of climate change. We derive a general analytic formula for the "risk premium" governing the resulting climate policy. The formula generalizes simple precautionary savings analysis to more complex economic interactions and it builds the economic intuition for policy making under uncertainty. It clarifies the distinct roles of risk aversion, prudence, characteristics of the damage formulation, and future policy response. We show that an optimal response to uncertainty substantially reduces the risk premium.

     
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    hdl: 10419/245377
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9196 (2021)
    Subjects: climate change; uncertainty; risk premium; precautionary savings; prudence; climate policy; dynamic programming; integrated assessment; DICE; recursive utility
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen