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  1. Are recoveries from banking and financial crises really so different?
    Author: Howard, Greg; Martin, Robert S.; Wilson, Beth Anne
    Published: [2011]
    Publisher:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 201
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: International finance discussion papers ; number 1037 (November 2011)
    Subjects: International; Business Cycles; Recoveries; Labor Market; Potential Output; United States
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Addressing the pandemic's medium-term fallout in Australia and New Zealand
    Author: Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Finger, Harald; Kido, Yosuke; Kothari, Siddharth; Loukoianova, Elena
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand... more

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    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic's adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513563282
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 272
    Subjects: Potential output; scarring; COVID-19; advanced economies; Australia; NewZealand; Advanced Economies; COVID-19; Potential Output; Scarring
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Schumpeterian macroeconomic production function for open economies: a new endogenous knowledge and output analysis
    Author: Welfens, Paul J. J.
    Published: January 2016
    Publisher:  European Institute for International Economic Relations, Bergische Universität Wuppertal, Wuppertal, Germany

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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion paper / European Institute for International Economic Relations ; 211
    Subjects: Potential Output; Innovation; Knowledge Production Function; Macroeconomics; Globalization
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten)
  4. The role of Vietnam's FDI inflows in global value chains participation and economic growth
    Author: Choi, Jinho; Hinojales, Marthe M.; Hong, Seung Hyun; Vichyanond, Jade
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, Singapore

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office ; WP/21, 02
    Subjects: Foreign Direct Investment; Global Value Chains; Potential Output; Economic Growth; Vietnam
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Estimating time-varying potential output and NAIRU using a multivariate filter for Turkey
    Author: Gökcü, Mert
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Head Office, Structural Economic Research Department, Ankara, Turkey

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ; no: 21, 39 (December 2021)
    Subjects: Potential Output; Output Gap; NAIRU; Multivariate Filter; Bayesian Estimation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Supply or demand?
    policy makers' confusion in the presence of hysteresis
    Author: Fatás, Antonio; Singh, Sanjay R.
    Published: 18 April 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP17232
    Subjects: Potential Output; hysteresis; Stabilization Policy; business cycles
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Supply or demand?
    policy makers' confusion in the pesence of hysteresis
    Author: Fatás, Antonio; Singh, Sanjay R.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  [University of California, Davis, Department of Economics], [Davis, CA]

    Policy makers need to separate between temporary demand-driven shocks and permanent shocks in order to design optimal aggregate demand policies. In this paper we study the case of a central bank that ignores the presence of hysteresis when... more

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    Policy makers need to separate between temporary demand-driven shocks and permanent shocks in order to design optimal aggregate demand policies. In this paper we study the case of a central bank that ignores the presence of hysteresis when identifying shocks. By assuming that all low-frequency output fluctuations are driven by permanent technology shocks, monetary policy is not aggressive enough in response to demand shocks. In addition, we show that errors in assessing the state of the economy can be self-perpetuating if seen through the lens of the mistaken views of the policy maker. We show that a central bank that mistakes a demand shock for a supply shock, will produce permanent effects on output through their suboptimal policies. Ex-post, the central bank will see an economy that resembles what they had forecast when designing their policies. The shock is indeed persistent and this persistence validates their assumption that the shock was a supply-driven one. The interaction between forecasts, policies and hysteresis creates the dynamics of self-perpetuating errors that is the focus of this paper.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267011
    Series: [Working papers / University of California, Davis, Department of Economics ; 347]
    Subjects: business cycles; hysteresis; Potential Output; Stabilization Policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten)
  8. The Federal Reserve's output gap
    the unreliability of real-time realiability tests
    Author: Quast, Josefine; Wolters, Maik H.
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's... more

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    Output gap revisions can be large even after many years. Real-time reliability tests might therefore be sensitive to the choice of the final output gap vintage that the real-time estimates are compared to. This is the case for the Federal Reserve's output gap. When accounting for revisions in response to the global financial crisis in the final output gap, the improvement in real-time reliability since the mid-1990s is much smaller than found by Edge and Rudd (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(4), 785-791). The negative bias of real-time estimates from the 1980s has disappeared, but the size of revisions continues to be as large as the output gap itself. We systematically analyse how the realtime reliability assessment is affected through varying the final output gap vintage. We find that the largest changes are caused by output gap revisions after recessions. Economists revise their models in response to such events, leading to economically important revisions not only for the most recent years, but reaching back up to two decades. This might improve the understanding of past business cycle dynamics, but decreases the reliability of real-time output gaps ex post.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268482
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 179 (2023)
    Subjects: Output Gap; Potential Output; Real-Time Data; Business Cycles; Revisions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The elusive state of full employment
    Author: Fatás, Antonio
    Published: 11 September 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP16535
    Subjects: Potential Output; business cycles; Natural rate of unemployment; recoveries
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Addressing the pandemic's medium-term fallout in Australia and New Zealand
    Author: Bannister, Geoffrey J.; Finger, Harald; Kido, Yosuke; Kothari, Siddharth; Loukoianova, Elena
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand... more

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    While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarring. Taking Australia and New Zealand as examples, we show that the pandemic will likely have a large and persistent impact on potential output, broadly in line with the experience of advanced economies from past recessions. The impact is driven by employment, capital stock, and productivity losses in the wake of an unprecedented sectoral reallocation, hightened uncertainty, and reduced migration. Maintaining fiscal and monetary policy support until the recovery is firmly entrenched and putting in place a strong structural policy agenda to counter the pandemic's adverse effects on medium-term potential output will be important to support standards of living and strengthen economic resilience in case of renewed shocks

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513563282
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 272
    Subjects: Potential output; scarring; COVID-19; advanced economies; Australia; NewZealand; Advanced Economies; COVID-19; Potential Output; Scarring
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen