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Displaying results 1 to 6 of 6.

  1. Disagreement about future inflation
    understanding the benefits of inflation targeting and transparency
    Author: Brito, Steve; Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Gruss, Bertrand
    Published: January 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on... more

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    We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on the benefits of inflation targeting regimes and central bank transparency. The reduction in disagreement that follows the adoption of inflation targeting is entirely due to increased central bank transparency. Since the benefits of increased transparency are non-linear, the gains from inflation targeting adoption have accrued mainly to countries that started from a low level of transparency. These have tended to be developing countries

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781484339718
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 24
    Subjects: Inflationssteuerung; Zentralbank; Fiskalische Transparenz; Inflationserwartung; Entwicklungsländer; Central Bank Transparency; Inflation Forecasts; Inflation Targeting; IT Adoption; WP
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Disagreement about future inflation
    understanding the benefits of inflation targeting and transparency
    Author: Brito, Steve; Carrière-Swallow, Yan; Gruss, Bertrand
    Published: January 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on the benefits of inflation targeting regimes and central bank transparency. The reduction in disagreement that follows the adoption of inflation targeting is entirely due to increased central bank transparency. Since the benefits of increased transparency are non-linear, the gains from inflation targeting adoption have accrued mainly to countries that started from a low level of transparency. These have tended to be developing countries

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781484339718
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 24
    Subjects: Inflationssteuerung; Zentralbank; Fiskalische Transparenz; Inflationserwartung; Entwicklungsländer; Central Bank Transparency; Inflation Forecasts; Inflation Targeting; IT Adoption; WP
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Professionals forecasting inflation
    the role of inattentiveness and uncertainty
    Author: Easaw, Joshy Z.; Golinelli, Roberto; Heravi, Saeed M.
    Published: March 2022
    Publisher:  Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nature of professionals’ inflation forecasts inattentiveness. We introduce and empirically investigate a new generalized model of inattentiveness due to informational rigidity. In doing so, we outline a... more

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    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the nature of professionals’ inflation forecasts inattentiveness. We introduce and empirically investigate a new generalized model of inattentiveness due to informational rigidity. In doing so, we outline a novel model that considers the non-linear relationship between inattentiveness and aggregate uncertainty, which crucially distinguishes between macro-economic and data ( measurement error) uncertainty. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Professional Forecasters data and indicates that inattentiveness due to imperfect information explains professional forecasts’ dynamics.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/261235
    Series: Cardiff economics working papers ; no. E2022, 7
    Subjects: Inflation Forecasts; Information Rigidities; Inattentiveness; Uncertainty; Survey Forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections
    a state dependent analysis
    Author: Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Norges Bank, Oslo

    We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether... more

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    DS 673
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    We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are unbiased and efficient on average, however there is evidence of state dependence. In particular, the ECB tends to overpredict (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is larger when inflation is above the target. These results hold even after accounting for errors in the external assumptions. We also find evidence of inefficiency, in the form of underreaction to news, but only when inflation is above the target. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9788283791891
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 11250/2755864
    hdl: 10419/246122
    Series: Working paper / Norges Bank ; 2021, 1
    Subjects: Forecast Evaluation; Forecast Efficiency; Inflation Forecasts; Central Bank Communication
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections
    a state dependent analysis
    Author: Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta
    Published: 29 April 2021
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 685
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by distinguishing whether the inflation observed by the ECB at the time of forecasting is above or below the target. The forecasts are unbiased and efficient on average, however there is evidence of state dependence. In particular, the ECB tends to overpredict (underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is larger when inflation is above the target. These results hold even after accounting for errors in the external assumptions. We also find evidence of inefficiency, in the form of underreaction to news, but only when inflation is above the target. Our findings bear important implications for the ECB forecasting process and ultimately for its communication strategy.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523233744
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240347
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2021, 7
    Subjects: Forecast Evaluation; Forecast Efficiency; Inflation Forecasts; Central Bank Communication
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The bias of the ECB inflation projections
    a State-dependent analysis
    Author: Granziera, Eleonora; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Paloviita, Maritta
    Published: 22 May 2024
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is... more

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    DS 685
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    We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the target too quickly. These results cannot be fully explained by the persistence embedded in the forecasting models nor by errors in the exogenous assumptions on interest rates, exchange rates or oil prices. The state-dependent bias may be consistent with the aim of managing inflation expectations, as published forecasts play a central role in the ECB's monetary policy communication strategy.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/295738
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2024, 4
    Subjects: Inflation Forecasts; Forecast Evaluation; ECB; Central Bank Communication
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen