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  1. Monetary policy rules
    model uncertainty meets design limits
    Published: 19 September 2023
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In our proposed approach, we take a large set of... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 685
    No inter-library loan

     

    Optimal monetary policy studies typically rely on a single structural model and identification of model-specific rules that minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In our proposed approach, we take a large set of structural models and look for the model-robust rules that minimize the volatilities at those frequencies that policymakers are most interested in stabilizing. Compared to the status quo approach, our results suggest that policymakers should be more restrained in their inflation responses when their aim is to stabilize inflation and output growth at specific frequencies. Additional caution is called for due to model uncertainty.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523234451
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/277764
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2023, 12
    Subjects: monetary policy rules; policy evaluation; model comparison; model uncertainty; frequency domain; design limits; DSGE models
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Monetary policy rules and the effective lower bound in the Euro area
    Published: 8 April 2021
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    We analyze the economic performance of di§erent monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the e§ective lower bound of... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 685
    No inter-library loan

     

    We analyze the economic performance of di§erent monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the e§ective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and how much forgone monetary policy accommodation this entails. Macroeconomic outcomes are measured by the mean levels and the volatility of output (gaps), unemployment and ináation. We present three sets of results. First, the macroeconomic costs of the ELB are likely to grow in a non-linear manner if the monetary policy space (the di§erence between the normal, or average, level of nominal interest rates and the ELB) shrinks. Second, a point ináation target appears to outperform a target range. Third, the (relative) performance of low-for-long (L4L) monetary policy rules depends on the size of the monetary policy space. The L4L rules tend to perform well, if the monetary space is small, but if the space is larger these rules, while stabilizing ináation, may lead to more volatility in the real economy than áexible ináation targeting.

     

    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789523233713
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/240345
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2021, 5
    Subjects: monetary policy rules; effective lower bound; euro area
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen