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  1. The impact of regionalism on the multilateral trading order
    French tariff bargaining in the Uruguay Round
  2. Switzerland's trade policy
    end of the FTA road, switch to the BTB lane?
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economics, University of St.Gallen, St. Gallen

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion paper / University of St.Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economics ; no. 2018, 09 (October 2018)
    Subjects: FTA; Tariffs; Trade Policy; Switzerland
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The tariff impact of hard Brexit
    taking back control comes at a price
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economics, University of St.Gallen, St. Gallen

    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    Language: English
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    Series: Discussion paper / University of St.Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economics ; no. 2018, 10 (October 2018)
    Subjects: Brexit; FTA; Tariffs; Trade Policy; United Kingdom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 16 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Non-tariff measures and competitiveness
    Published: September 2018
    Publisher:  Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, [Milano]

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    Series: Development studies working papers / Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano ; n. 438
    Subjects: Tariffs; Non-tariff Measures; Heterogeneous firms; International Trade; EU
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Macroeconomic consequences of tariffs
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to... more

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    We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases lead, in the medium term, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result in more unemployment, higher inequality, and real exchange rate appreciation, but only small effects on the trade balance. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies, and when tariffs go up, not down. Our results are robust to a large number of perturbations to our methodology, and we complement our analysis with industry-level data

     

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  6. Effective trade costs and the current account
    an empirical analysis
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    A view receiving increased support is that the height of trade costs in prime export sectors has a strong effect on current account balances: countries specializing in sectors that face relatively high trade costs, such as services, tend to run... more

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    A view receiving increased support is that the height of trade costs in prime export sectors has a strong effect on current account balances: countries specializing in sectors that face relatively high trade costs, such as services, tend to run current account deficits, and similarly, countries specializing in low trade cost sectors, such as manufacturing, tend to run current account surpluses. To test this view, we first infer comparative advantages and trade costs, by sector, within a large sample of countries for the period 1970-2014. Then we construct effective trade costs-trade costs weighted by sectoral comparative advantage-to gauge the height of a country's overall trade costs. Results reveal that, although higher effective exporting costs are associated with lower current account balances, their impact is quantitatively limited; furthermore, the effective costs of importing often have no statistically significant effect

     

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  7. Czech Republic
    selected issues
    Published: June 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Selected Issues paper investigates the direct and indirect exposure of the Czech Republic to these external risks. The Czech Republic is a small open economy that has become increasingly reliant on export-driven growth over the last three... more

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    This Selected Issues paper investigates the direct and indirect exposure of the Czech Republic to these external risks. The Czech Republic is a small open economy that has become increasingly reliant on export-driven growth over the last three decades. Domestic value-added in foreign exports as a share of gross exports in the Czech Republic is higher than the average share of the European Union 28. Services have a relatively low contribution to value-added in gross exports. Given the high integration of the Czech Republic into global value chains, it is crucial to take supply chain linkages into account when assessing the impact of trade shocks. The exposure to Germany is even more pronounced at the sectoral level. Manufacturing of machinery and transportation vehicles account for a large share of exports and imports in the Czech Republic. Although the impact of the US-China trade disputes on the Czech Republic would likely be limited, a hard Brexit scenario or lower demand in Germany could have sizable effects

     

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  8. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement
    welfare gains estimates from a general equilibrium model
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to... more

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    In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications-comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition-are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures

     

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  9. The price of capital goods
    a driver of investment under threat
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using cross-country and sectoral data, we show that the decline in the relative... more

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    Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using cross-country and sectoral data, we show that the decline in the relative price of tangible tradable capital goods provided a significant impetus to the capital deepening that took place during the same time period. The broad-based decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, in turn, was driven by the faster productivity growth in the capital goods producing sectors relative to the rest of the economy, and deeper trade integration, which induced domestic producers to lower prices and increase their efficiency. Our findings suggest an additional channel through which rising trade tensions and sluggish productivity could threaten real investment growth going forward

     

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  10. Argentina
    fourth review under the stand-by arrangement, request for waivers of applicability and modification of performance criteria, and financing assurances review : press release, staff report, and staff supplement
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This paper discusses Argentina's Fourth Review of the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for a Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. The report highlights that with very high inflation and an... more

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    This paper discusses Argentina's Fourth Review of the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for a Waivers of Applicability and Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. The report highlights that with very high inflation and an increase in gross financing needs in coming months, discussions centered on how best to mitigate risks to the program, bolster market confidence, and calibrate monetary policy to continue bringing down inflation. The authorities have revamped their debt management strategy to support higher rollovers and an extension of average maturity of new issuance to the degree permitted by market conditions. The authorities have maintained a cautious approach to expenditure authorization in order to safeguard their program's fiscal targets. The Argentine authorities' efforts to increase rollover rates on public debt and to lengthen the maturity of new debt issuance should help mitigate financing risks in the period ahead. Ongoing efforts to improve the functioning of local sovereign debt markets will help improve market liquidity and lower financing costs

     

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  11. Kyrgyz Republic
    selected issues
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance... more

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    This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor's risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending

     

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  12. NAFTA to USMCA
    what is gained?
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper uses a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model to... more

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    The United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper uses a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model to provide an analytical assessment of five key provisions in the new agreement, including tighter rules of origin in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, more liberalized agricultural trade, and other trade facilitation measures. The results show that together these provisions would adversely affect trade in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, while generating modest aggregate gains in terms of welfare, mostly driven by improved goods market access, with a negligible effect on real GDP. The welfare benefits from USMCA would be greatly enhanced with the elimination of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico and the elimination of the Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes imposed after the U.S. tariffs were put in place

     

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  13. The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty
    Published: August 30, 2019
    Publisher:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

    We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that... more

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    We study the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. We construct three measures of TPU based on newspaper coverage, firms' earnings conference calls, and aggregate data on tari rates. We document that increases in TPU reduce investment and activity using both firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data. We interpret the empirical results through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms' export participation decisions. In the model as in the data, news and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: International finance discussion papers ; number 1256 (September 2019)
    FRB International Finance Discussion Paper ; No. 1256
    Subjects: Trade Policy Uncertainty; Textual Analysis; Tariffs; Investment; UncertaintyShocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Trade wars and trade deals
    estimated effects using a multi-sector model
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U.S. auto... more

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    This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U.S. auto tariffs. The second analyzes a 'transactional deal' between the U.S. and China to close their bilateral deficit. The third, in the absence of such a deal, considers a potential escalation in bilateral tariffs between the two countries. Some common features emerge across all three scenarios: the overall effects on GDP tend to be relatively small albeit negative in most cases, including for the U.S. However, sectoral disruptions and positive and negative spillovers to highly exposed 'by-stander' economies can be large. There is also heterogeneity at the subnational level in the U.S. -- richer states tend to benefit from certain scenarios. We discuss how estimated impacts depend on the extent to which the U.S. is able to re-shore production in protected sectors. These results can usefully complement estimates obtained through macroeconomic models that are better suited to capture dynamic effects, such as those stemming from trade policy uncertainty. More generally, our results both underscore the value of adhering to the existing levels of liberalization, and highlight the risks associated with a fragmentation or even a complete breakdown of the trading system

     

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  15. New insights into ECCU's tourism sector competitiveness
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the... more

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    Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU's competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares

     

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  16. Lebanon
    selected issues
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    This Selected Issues paper studies the inefficiencies related to the electricity sector and assesses the potential impact of the 2019 reform plan. Electricity shortages are the second constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Lebanon,... more

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    This Selected Issues paper studies the inefficiencies related to the electricity sector and assesses the potential impact of the 2019 reform plan. Electricity shortages are the second constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Lebanon, based on the Enterprise Survey conducted by the World Bank. Lebanon's electricity sector performance is worse than other similar countries in the region. Many businesses must rely on costly private generators. Income inequalities are exacerbated by both the geographical disparities in Electricite du Liban's (EdL) electricity provision and its tariff structure. The most vulnerable households are the small consumers located in regions with little electricity provision from EdL. A new electricity plan was approved by Cabinet on April 9, 2019 and ratified by Parliament on April 17, 2019. Although it is critical that the plan is decisively implemented, it is also important that it is enhanced further to fully restore EdL's viability. Introducing well-targeted measures, such as cash transfers, would help protect the most vulnerable households from the tariff increase. As planned in the reform package, consumer tariffs should be indexed on the evolution of input prices to guarantee that it will not be negatively impacted by future developments in fuel or gas prices

     

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  17. Senegal
    selected issues
    Published: January 2022
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.

    Selected Issues more

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    Selected Issues

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781616359072
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF country report ; no. 22, 9
    Subjects: Senegal's energy sector; energy subsidy; growth experience; growth development; determination decree; Energy subsidies; Electricity; Oil prices; Energy sector; Tariffs; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations; Monetary Policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The effect of tariffs in global value chains
    Published: 2022 FEB
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at... more

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    This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, id est positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9798400204456
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 40
    Subjects: Tariffs; global value chains; value added; productivity; Economic Integration; Empirical Studies of Trade; International Trade Organizations; Tariffs, Global Value Chains, Value Added and Productivity; Trade Policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Preferential trade agreements and rules of the multilateral trading system
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Ryerson University, Department of Economics, Toronto

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: [Working papers] / [Ryerson University, Department of Economics] ; [067]
    Subjects: Free Trade Agreements; Tariffs; Customs Unions; World Trade Organization; Coalition proof Nash equilibrium; Welfare
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Costs of trade wars
    the distributional consequences of US Section 301 Tariffs against China
    Published: June 2021
    Publisher:  Economics, College of Arts & Sciences, American University, Washington, DC

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    Series: Working papers / Economics, College of Arts & Sciences, American University ; 2022, 02
    Subjects: Tariffs; Section 301; Consumer Los
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 14 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. WTO moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions
    how much tariff revenue have developing countries lost?
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  South Centre, Geneva, Switzerland

    This research paper highlights the adverse impacts of the continuing WTO moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions on the developing and least developed countries. The rapidly progressing digitalization along with the ongoing pandemic... more

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    This research paper highlights the adverse impacts of the continuing WTO moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions on the developing and least developed countries. The rapidly progressing digitalization along with the ongoing pandemic and the food crisis are creating multiple demands on the government revenues. However, because of the moratorium almost all developing, and least developed countries are losing tariff revenues especially at the time when they are most needed. Not only are they losing the fiscal space but are also losing their regulatory space as they are unable to regulate the growing imports of digitizable products, especially of luxury items like the movies, music and video games. It is estimated that in the period 2017-2020, developing countries and LDCs lost $56 billion of tariff revenue, of which $48 billion were lost by the developing countries and $8 billion by the least developed countries. It is interesting to note that this loss of tariff revenue is from the imports of just 49 products (at HS six-digit). With no clarity on the definition of electronic transmissions (ET) and thereby on the scope of the moratorium, the continuation of the WTO moratorium on customs duties on ET can lead to substantive tariff revenue losses for developing and least developed countries in the future.

     

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    hdl: 10419/270382
    Series: Research paper / South Centre ; 157 (3 June 2022)
    Subjects: 3D Printing; COVID-19; Digital Economy; Digital Industrialization; Digitalization; Digitizable Products; Electronic Transmissions; GATS; Least Developed Countries (LDCs); MC12; Pandemic; Tariffs; World Trade Organization (WTO); WTO Moratorium on Customs Duties On Electronic Transmissions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The effect of tariffs in global value chains
    Published: 2022 FEB
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at... more

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    This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for a broad set of countries and industries. Our results suggest that tariffs have significant effects on economic outcomes, including on countries and sectors not directly targeted. We find that tariffs higher up and further down in the value chain depress value added, employment, labor productivity and total factor productivity to varying degrees. We find no benefits for the sector that enjoys additional protection, yet there is some evidence of economic activity being diverted, id est positive effects on value added and employment from tariffs imposed on competitors. Our paper relates to recent innovations in theoretical gravity models and provides an empirical assessment of possible long-term effects of recent trade tensions

     

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  23. Impacts of tariff rates on input source choice
    evidence from Indonesia
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), JETRO, Chiba, Japan

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 135
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 2344/00053487
    Series: IDE discussion paper ; no. 861
    Subjects: Indonesia; Tariffs; Inputs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Heterogenous impacts of trade liberalization on individual wages
    evidence from Thailand
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), JETRO, Chiba, Japan

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 2344/00053488
    Series: IDE discussion paper ; no. 862
    Subjects: Household; Tariffs; Thailand
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. How preferential are RCEP tariffs?
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  [Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia], [Jakarta]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: ERIA discussion paper series ; ERIA-DP-2022-13 = no. 442
    Subjects: Tariffs; RCEP; Rules of origin
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen