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  1. Secular drivers of the natural rate of interest in the United States
    a quantitative evaluation
    Author: Platzer, Josef; Peruffo, Marcel
    Published: 2022 FEB
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r*) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r*) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality, and public policy. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage point (pp) decline in r* between 1975 and 2015, which is within the range of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0.70 pp), and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing public debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income risk, and matching the degree of nonhomotheticity in consumption and savings behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We predict that r* will reach a low of 0.38% by 2030, after which a slow reversal will begin. The natural rate will stabilize at 1% in the long run, a low level when compared with the postwar path of r* implied by the model. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy can have considerable impact on the level of r* through the tax and transfer system

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9798400203282
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 30
    Subjects: Demographic Change; Inequality; Life-cycle; Natural Rate of Interest; Nonhomothetic Preferences; Secular Stagnation; Interest Rates; Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance; Macroeconomics; Personal Income, Wealth and Their Distributions; Saving; Wealth
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Secular drivers of the natural rate of interest in the United States
    a quantitative evaluation
    Author: Platzer, Josef; Peruffo, Marcel
    Published: 2022 FEB
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r*) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
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    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
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    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Ravensburg, Bibliothek
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    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
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    We develop a heterogeneous agent, overlapping generations model with nonhomothetic preferences that nests several explanations for the decline in the natural rate of interest (r*) suggested in the literature: demographic change, a slowdown in productivity growth, a rise in income inequality, and public policy. The model can account for a 2.2 percentage point (pp) decline in r* between 1975 and 2015, which is within the range of empirical estimates. Rising income inequality is an important driver (-0.70 pp), and together with demographic change (-0.71 pp) and the slowdown in productivity growth (-1.0 pp) explains most of the decline. Growing public debt is the major counteracting force (+0.31 pp). Permanent income inequality is of greater importance than inequality due to uninsurable income risk, and matching the degree of nonhomotheticity in consumption and savings behavior to empirical estimates is essential for this result. We predict that r* will reach a low of 0.38% by 2030, after which a slow reversal will begin. The natural rate will stabilize at 1% in the long run, a low level when compared with the postwar path of r* implied by the model. This remains true even if we take into account soaring public debt levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy can have considerable impact on the level of r* through the tax and transfer system

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9798400203282
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/22, 30
    Subjects: Demographic Change; Inequality; Life-cycle; Natural Rate of Interest; Nonhomothetic Preferences; Secular Stagnation; Interest Rates; Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance; Macroeconomics; Personal Income, Wealth and Their Distributions; Saving; Wealth
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 88 Seiten), Illustrationen