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Displaying results 1 to 4 of 4.

  1. Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates and the optimal inflation target
    Author: Adam, Klaus; Pfäuti, Oliver; Reinelt, Timo
    Published: 07 April 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    LZ 161
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP17187
    Subjects: Monetary Policy; Subjective Housing Price Expectations; Natural rate ofinterest; housing booms; optimal inflation target; effective lower bound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence
    Author: Pfäuti, Oliver; Seyrich, Fabian; Zinman, Jonathan
    Published: April 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially... more

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence to an otherwise standard HANK model. Overconfidence proves to be the key innovation, driving households to spend instead of precautionary save and producing empirically realistic wealth distributions and hand-to-mouth shares and MPCs across the income distribution. We highlight implications for various fiscal policies

     
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  3. A behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
    Author: Pfäuti, Oliver; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 14
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    We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. Thus, the model can account for recent empirical findings on the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy. When abstracting from either household heterogeneity or bounded rationality the model fails to do so. Our framework nests a broad range of existing models, none of which can be consistent with all these empirical facts simultaneously. According to our model, central banks have to increase interest rates more strongly than in the rational model after an inflationary supply shock to fully stabilize inflation. While fully stabilizing inflation keeps output at potential, higher real interest rates mainly benefit wealthy households and increase the cost of government debt, leading to a substantial increase in government debt and inequality. Our model thus indicates a more pronounced trade off between aggregate efficiency and price stability on one hand, and distributional consequences and fiscal sustainability on the other hand.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/262208
    Edition: Updated version, August 2022
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1995
    Subjects: Heterogeneous Households; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Forward Guidance; Fiscal Policy; Lower Bound; Inflation; Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. A behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
    Author: Pfäuti, Oliver; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin

    We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (lizenzpflichtig)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 14
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. Simultaneously, the model resolves the forward guidance puzzle, remains stable at the effective lower bound and determinate under an interest-rate peg. The model is analytically tractable and nests a wide range of existing models as special cases, none of which can produce all the listed features within one model. We extend our model and derive an equivalence result of models featuring bounded rationality and models featuring incomplete information and learning. This extended model generates hump-shaped responses of aggregate variables and a novel behavioral amplification channel that is absent in existing HANK models.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251459
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1995
    Subjects: Behavioral Macroeconomics; Heterogeneous Households; Monetary Policy; Forward Guidance; Fiscal Policy; New Keynesian Puzzles; Determinacy; Lower Bound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen