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Displaying results 1 to 6 of 6.

  1. Approaching the terminal rate and the way forward
    a model-based analysis
    Author: Bartocci, Anna; Cantelmo, Alessandro; Cecioni, Martina; Hoynck, Christian; Notarpietro, Alessandro; Papetti, Andrea
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 547
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 791 (July 2023)
    Subjects: central banking; monetary policy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. On the anchoring of inflation expectations in the Euro area
    Author: Neri, Stefano; Bulligan, Guido; Cecchetti, Sara; Corsello, Francesco; Papetti, Andrea; Riggi, Marianna; Rondinelli, Concetta; Tagliabracci, Alex
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia, [Rom]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 547
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 712 (September 2022)
    Subjects: inflation expectations; survey data; professional forecasters; consumers’expectations; market based expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Demographics and inflation in the euro area
    a two-sector new Keynesian perspective
    Author: Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; Papetti, Andrea
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation can be... more

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    Signature:
    DS 534
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    Can the aging process affect inflation? The prolonged decline of fertility and mortality rates induces a persistent downward pressure on the natural interest rate. If this development is not internalized by the monetary policy rule, inflation can be on a downward trend. Using the structure of a twosector overlapping generations model embedded in a New-Keynesian framework with price frictions, calibrated for the euro area, this paper shows that following a commonly specified monetary policy rule the economy features a "disinflationary bias" since 1990, in a way that can match the downward trend of core inflation found in the data for the euro area. In this model, continuing to follow the same rule makes inflation to be on a declining pattern at least until 2030. At the same time, changing consumption patterns towards nontradable items such as health-care generate a small "inflationary bias" a positive deviation of inflation from target of less than 0.1 percentage points between 1990 and 2030. In the model setting of this paper, this inflationary bias is not strong enough to counteract the disinflationary bias generated by the downward impact of aging on the natural interest rate.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289940252
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228996
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2382 (March 2020)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Demographics and the natural real interest rate
    historical and projected paths for the euro area
    Author: Papetti, Andrea
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper employs an aggregate representation of an overlapping generation (OLG) model quantifying a decrease of the natural real interest rate in the range of -1.7 and -0.4 percentage points in the euro area between 1990 and 2030 due to... more

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    This paper employs an aggregate representation of an overlapping generation (OLG) model quantifying a decrease of the natural real interest rate in the range of -1.7 and -0.4 percentage points in the euro area between 1990 and 2030 due to demographics alone. Two channels contribute to this downward impact: the increasing scarcity of effective labor input and the increasing willingness to save by individuals due to longer life expectancy. The decrease of the aggregate saving rate as individuals retire has an upward impact which is never strong enough. Mitigating factors are: higher substitutability between labor and capital, higher intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption, reforms aiming at increasing the relative productivity of older cohorts, the participation rate and the retirement age. The simulated path of the natural real interest rate is consistent with recent econometric estimates: an upward trend in the 70s and 80s and a prolonged decline afterward.

     
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    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289935203
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208292
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2258 (March 2019)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe
    Author: Papetti, Andrea
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 450
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1333 (April 2021)
    Subjects: population aging; relative prices; capital flows; overlapping generations; tradable nontradable; secular stagnation; structural transformation; global imbalances
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 71 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Demographics and the natural real interest rate
    historical and projected paths for the euro area
    Author: Papetti, Andrea
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Banca d'Italia Eurosistema, [Rom]

    Access:
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    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 450
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Temi di discussione / Banca d'Italia ; number 1306 (November 2020)
    Subjects: population aging; natural interest rate; secular stagnation; overlapping generations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen