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  1. Interest rate snapback and the impacts on the Irish economy
    Author: Egan, Paul; Kenny, Eoin; O'Toole, Conor
    Published: August 10, 2023
    Publisher:  ESRI, Economic & Social Research Institute, [Dublin]

    In this paper, we explore the impact of recent interest rate increases on the Irish economy and chart out the potential impact using scenarios for the period 2023- 2025. We use the COSMO macroeconometric model of the Irish economy to test the impacts... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 176
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    In this paper, we explore the impact of recent interest rate increases on the Irish economy and chart out the potential impact using scenarios for the period 2023- 2025. We use the COSMO macroeconometric model of the Irish economy to test the impacts through credit markets and the real economy, separately modelling the impact on consumer, corporate and mortgage markets. We also use micro data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) to test the impact on mortgage affordability of the interest rate increases. Our scenarios are drawn from the European Banking Authority (EBA) stress tests which provide base and adverse outcomes for the policy rate. These are compared to a pre-Ukraine war baseline. We find notable effects on the mortgage market and house prices as well as sizable impacts on key macroeconomic aggregates such as investment, consumption and output. We also observe an increase in housing payment to income ratios but no major increase in mortgage affordability distress as measured by the residual income approach.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/296729
    Series: ESRI working paper ; no. 757 (August 2023)
    Subjects: Zins; Geldpolitische Transmission; Wirkungsanalyse; Hypothek; Markt; Szenariotechnik; Makroökonometrie; Irland
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Contrasting housing supply in Ireland, Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom
    Author: Disch, Wendy; Egan, Paul; Kenny, Eoin; McQuinn, Kieran
    Published: January 2024
    Publisher:  The Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin

    This report examines the Irish, Northern Irish, Welsh, Scottish, and English residential markets with a particular focus on their capacity to increase housing supply over the short to medium term. Our approach compares and contrasts how differences... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 630
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    This report examines the Irish, Northern Irish, Welsh, Scottish, and English residential markets with a particular focus on their capacity to increase housing supply over the short to medium term. Our approach compares and contrasts how differences across the housing markets, in key costs of production, the regulatory environment and economic dynamics, have impacted the supply of housing. The report suggests that across all housing markets, but particularly in the Irish case, the traditional financial sector does not appear to be able to provide the requisite amount of credit for the level of housing activity which has been deemed necessary to meet the underlying structural demand for housing. With this in mind, increased Government investment in the form of expanding the level of social and affordable stock of housing available emerges as a key finding across all markets.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/298362
    Series: ESRI research series ; number 175
    Subjects: Wohnungsmarkt; Wohnungsbestand; Soziale Wohnungspolitik; England; Irland; Nordirland; Schottland; Wales
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. A cross country perspective on Irish enterprise investment
    do fundamentals or constraints matter?
    Author: Gargan, Eric; Kenny, Eoin; O'Regan, Cynthia; O'Toole, Conor
    Published: August 1, 2023
    Publisher:  ESRI, Economic & Social Research Institute, [Dublin]

    Numerous research papers have used Irish-only data to test for the presence of an investment gap for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In this paper, we use cross country firm-level survey data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys to... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 176
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    Numerous research papers have used Irish-only data to test for the presence of an investment gap for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In this paper, we use cross country firm-level survey data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys to explore the investment patterns of Irish SMEs in a crosscountry context and test whether an investment gap is present when compared to other countries. We use an accelerator model of investment which links capital expenditure to firm output growth and test the sensitivity of investment to this key fundamental for Ireland and other countries. We then estimate whether Irish firms face an investment gap relative to their European peers. We test whether any differences in cross country patterns are driven by variation in financial factors (such as credit access or indebtedness) or firm quality (managerial experience, website usage, operating profitability). We find that Ireland's investment in fixed tangible assets is relatively well explained by these factors whereas a clear underinvestment in research and development expenditure emerges. Factors associated with investment in research and development include the degree of foreign technology usage, digitalisation and internationalisation.

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/296726
    Series: ESRI working paper ; no. 754 (2023)
    Subjects: SME Investment; accelerator model; access to credit; firm performance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen