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Displaying results 1 to 10 of 10.

  1. A vicious cycle of manias, crashes and asymmetric policy responses
    an overinvestment view
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas; Schnabl, Gunther
    Published: 2009
    Publisher:  CESifo, München

    The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant credit expansion and overinvestment. The exuberance... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 63 (2855)
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    The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant credit expansion and overinvestment. The exuberance during the boom endogenously causes the subsequent slump. While these theories put the emphasis on explaining the emergence of the cycle, this paper focuses on the macroeconomic policy responses during and after the crisis, when panic tightens credit supply. The paper allows an assessment of the long-term consequences of an asymmetric monetary and fiscal policy response to financial crisis.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/30494
    RVK Categories: QB 910
    Series: Array ; 2855
    Subjects: Konjunkturtheorie; Finanzkrise; Stabilisierungspolitik; Wirkungsanalyse; Theorie
    Scope: Online-Ressource (26 S.), graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Parallel als Druckausg. erschienen
  2. The theory of optimum currency areas and growth in emerging markets
    Author: Schnabl, Gunther; Hoffmann, Andreas
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswiss. Fak., Leipzig

    We test for the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in emerging market economies based on the theory of optimum currency areas. Our findings provide evidence for a positive impact of exchange rate stability on growth. -- OCA ; growth more

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    We test for the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in emerging market economies based on the theory of optimum currency areas. Our findings provide evidence for a positive impact of exchange rate stability on growth. -- OCA ; growth

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/45655
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 84
    Subjects: Wechselkurs; Volatilität; Wirtschaftswachstum; Optimaler Währungsraum; Schätzung; Schwellenländer
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 11, 3 S., 125,63 KB)
  3. Determinants of carry trades in Central and Eastern Europe
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

    In this paper, I analyze determinants of carry trade returns in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). I show that carry trades to CEE were lucrative due to interest rate spreads between the funding and investment currency from 2004 to 2006. They became... more

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    In this paper, I analyze determinants of carry trade returns in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). I show that carry trades to CEE were lucrative due to interest rate spreads between the funding and investment currency from 2004 to 2006. They became unprofitable when liquidity risk and exchange rate volatility increased after 2007. The analysis suggests that the exchange rate regime of the CEE economy matters for carry trade returns. Overall, exchange rate stabilization, particularly via managed floats, seems to allow for the highest profit opportunities. -- Carry trades ; emerging markets ; exchange rates

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/55536
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 102
    Subjects: Devisenmarkt; Zinsparität; Währungsspekulation; Kapitaleinkommen; Wechselkurssystem; Osteuropa
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 27 S., 276,33 KB), graph. Darst.
  4. Did the Fed and ECB react asymmetrically with respect to asset market developments?
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas
    Published: 2012
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

    This paper studies the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bundesbank / European Central Bank (ECB) with respect to stock or/and foreign exchange markets from 1979 to 2009. I find that Fed policy changed over time, dependent on the... more

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    This paper studies the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bundesbank / European Central Bank (ECB) with respect to stock or/and foreign exchange markets from 1979 to 2009. I find that Fed policy changed over time, dependent on the chairman of the Fed. During the Greenspan era stock markets mattered for the Fed. In this period, the Fed lowered interest rates when stock prices fell, but did not raise interest rates in the boom. This asymmetry potentially put a downward pressure on interest rates. For the ECB, the exchange rate to the dollar played a role in monetary policy decisions until 2006. While I do not find evidence of asymmetric monetary policy with respect to the stock market, the ECB may be argued to indirectly have followed asymmetric US monetary policy via the exchange rate channel. -- Monetary policy ; Taylor rule ; Asset prices

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/55535
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 103
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Taylor-Regel; Börsenkurs; Aktienmarkt; Wechselkurs; Devisenmarkt; USA; Deutschland; Eurozone
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 33 S., 329,88 KB), graph. Darst.
  5. National monetary policy, international economic instability and feedback effects
    an overinvestment view
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas; Schnabl, Gunther
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  Univ., Jena

    The paper explains internationally transmitted boom-and-bust cycles as the outcome of excessive liquidity supply based on the credit boom theories of Hayek (1929; 937), Mises (1912) and Minsky (1986). We show how too expansionary monetary policies... more

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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    eBook
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 230 (19)
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    The paper explains internationally transmitted boom-and-bust cycles as the outcome of excessive liquidity supply based on the credit boom theories of Hayek (1929; 937), Mises (1912) and Minsky (1986). We show how too expansionary monetary policies cause distortions in the economic structure and boom-and-bust cycles on both a national and an international level. Feedback effects of crises in periphery countries on center countries are shown to trigger a new round of monetary expansion in large countries, which provide international currencies to an asymmetric world monetary system. Crisis and contagion in globalized goods and financial markets indicate the limits of purely national monetary policies, which solely focus on domestic consumer prices and output. This makes the case for monetary policies in large countries, which take responsibility for the long-term effects of monetary policy on goods and financial markets in both home and foreign as put forward by Hayek (1937).

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/94458
    Series: Working papers on global financial markets ; 19
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Liquidität; Wirkungsanalyse; Konjunktur; Periphere Region; Konjunkturzusammenhang; Theorie
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 21 S., 0,25 MB), graph. Darst.
  6. Order, displacements and recurring financial crises
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas; Urbansky, Björn
    Published: 2012
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

    The paper describes boom-and-bust cycles within Hayek’s framework of order and aims to provide an understanding of recurring crises in recent financial history. We argue that a boom-and-bust cycle is initiated by a displacement that lowers the degree... more

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    The paper describes boom-and-bust cycles within Hayek’s framework of order and aims to provide an understanding of recurring crises in recent financial history. We argue that a boom-and-bust cycle is initiated by a displacement that lowers the degree of (ex-post) plan coherence (or order) in an economy. Such displacements can be endogenous (e.g. innovations) or exogenous (e.g. policy alteration). A cycle can be triggered if the displacement signals high short-run profit opportunities but agents lack an understanding of the long-run impact of the displacement and cannot form coherent expectations. The application of the framework aims at making sense of recurring financial crises since the break-down of the Bretton Woods System. First, we argue that the newly emerging international financial architecture has made the financial system more elastic. Second, we show how large exogenous displacements such as capital account liberalization inititated boom-and-bust cycles in developing countries. And third, we argue that the competitive market system themselves brought about many innovations that endogenously amplified the latest US boom-and-bust cycle and increased the crisis potential. -- Hayek ; order ; displacement ; financial crises

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/59512
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 108
    Subjects: Finanzkrise; Konjunktur; Wirtschaftsordnung; Marktmechanismus; Evolutionsökonomik; Theorie
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 27 S., 248,24 KB)
  7. The idea of a social cycle
    Author: Callahan, Gene; Hoffmann, Andreas
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

    The paper aims to explore what it means for something to be a social cycle, for a theory to be a social cycle theory, and to offer a suggestion for a simple, yet, we believe, fundamentally grounded schema for categorizing them. We show that a broad... more

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    The paper aims to explore what it means for something to be a social cycle, for a theory to be a social cycle theory, and to offer a suggestion for a simple, yet, we believe, fundamentally grounded schema for categorizing them. We show that a broad range of cycle theories can be described within the concept of disruption and adjustments. Further, many important cycle theories are true endogenous social cycle theories in which the theory provides a reason why the cycle should recur. We find that many social cycle theories fit with a two-population disruption and adjustment model similar to the well-known predator-prey model. This implies that a general modeling framework could be established for creating agent-based models of many social cycle theories.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/97497
    Edition: This version: May 2014
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 130
    Subjects: Sozialer Wandel; Konjunkturtheorie; Populationsdynamisches Modell; Agentenbasierte Modellierung; Ökonomische Ideengeschichte; Theorie
    Scope: Online-Ressource (33 S.)
  8. The euro as a proxy for the classical gold standard?
    government debt financing and political commitment in historical perspective
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    DS 279 (119)
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    hdl: 10419/74607
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 119
    Subjects: Euro; Währungsunion; Goldstandard; Öffentliche Schulden; Haushaltskonsolidierung; Glaubwürdigkeit; Eurozone
    Scope: Online-Ressource (26 S.), graph. Darst.
  9. Low interest rate policy and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas; Loeffler, Axel
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Univ., Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Leipzig

    The paper attempts to shed light on the link between monetary policy in large economies with international currencies (the United States and the euro area) and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets. Using reserve requirement data for 28... more

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    The paper attempts to shed light on the link between monetary policy in large economies with international currencies (the United States and the euro area) and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets. Using reserve requirement data for 28 emerging markets from 1998 to 2012 we provide evidence that emerging markets tend to raise reserve requirements and repress financial markets to curb speculative capital inflows when interest rates in the major economies decline. Our finding suggests that the current low interest rate policies of the major economies may have collateral effects on emerging markets by triggering financially repressive policies. -- Reserve Requirements ; Financial Repression ; Emerging Markets

     
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    Language: English
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/74608
    Series: Working Paper / Universität Leipzig, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät ; 120
    Subjects: Niedrigzinspolitik; Reservewährung; USA; Eurozone; Wirkungsanalyse; Kapitalverkehrskontrolle; Währungsreserven; Schwellenländer
    Scope: Online-Ressource (15 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. Adverse effects of ultra-loose monetary policies on investment, growth and income distribution
    Author: Hoffmann, Andreas; Schnabl, Gunther
    Published: February 2016
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, München

    The paper analyses adverse investment, growth and distributional effects of ultra-loose monetary policies based on the monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek and Mises. We argue that ultra-loose monetary policies create incentives to substitute... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    DS 63 (5754)
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    The paper analyses adverse investment, growth and distributional effects of ultra-loose monetary policies based on the monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek and Mises. We argue that ultra-loose monetary policies create incentives to substitute real investment by financial investment. When interest rates are expected to fall in the long term, the marginal and average efficiency of investments fall along, dampening GDP growth. We further show that the prolonged period of very low interest rates tends to distribute income towards higher income classes. This helps explain why consumer price inflation in most advanced economies does not pick up despite unprecedented monetary expansions.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/128460
    Series: Array ; no. 5754
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen