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Displaying results 1 to 8 of 8.

  1. Evaluating the joint efficiency of German trade forecasts
    a nonparametric multivariate approach
    Author: Behrens, Christoph
    Published: March, 2019
    Publisher:  Humboldt-Universität, Berlin

    I analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate random forests in order to... more

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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 715
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    I analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate random forests in order to model links between forecast errors and a forecaster's information set, consisting of several trade and other macroeconomic predictor variables. I use the Mahalanobis distance as performance criterion and, in a second step, permutation tests to check whether the Mahalanobis distance between the predicted forecast errors for the trade forecasts and actual forecast errors is significantly smaller than under the null hypothesis of forecast efficiency. I find evidence for joint forecast inefficiency for two forecasters, however, for one forecaster I cannot reject joint forecast efficiency. For the other forecasters, joint forecast efficiency depends on the examined forecast horizon. I find evidence that real macroeconomic variables as opposed to trade variables are inefficiently included in the analyzed trade forecasts. Finally, I compile a joint efficiency ranking of the forecasters.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/223190
    Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 ; no 9 (2019, March)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The IWH Forecasting Dashboard
    From Forecasts to Evaluation and Comparison
    Author: Heinisch, Katja; Behrens, Christoph; Döpke, Jörg; Foltas, Alexander; Fritsche, Ulrich; Köhler, Tim; Müller, Karsten; Puckelwald, Johannes; Reichmayr, Hannes
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle - IWH, Halle (Saale)

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: E-Journal
    Format: Online
    ISSN: 2365-9076
    Other identifier:
    Series: IWH Technical Reports ; 1/2023
    Subjects: Wirtschaft; Prognose; Datenbank
    Other subjects: (stw)Wirtschaftsprognose; (stw)Datenbank; (stw)Deutschland; Graue Literatur
    Scope: Online-Ressource
  3. Queer-Feministische Perspektiven auf Wissen(schaft)
    Contributor: Behrens, Christoph (Herausgeber); Zittlau, Andrea (Herausgeber)
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Universität Rostock, Rostock

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Behrens, Christoph (Herausgeber); Zittlau, Andrea (Herausgeber)
    Language: German; English; Italian
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    http://purl.uni-rostock.de/rosdok/id00000110
    Series: Rostocker Interdisziplinäre Gender und Queer Studien ; Band 1
    Subjects: Feminismus; Queer-Theorie; Geschlechterforschung; Geschlechtsidentität; Geschlechterverhältnis; Geschlechterrolle
    Other subjects: Behre, Andrea (1975-)
    Scope: Online-Ressource
  4. Queer-Feministische Perspektiven auf Wissen(schaft)
    Contributor: Behrens, Christoph (HerausgeberIn); Zittlau, Andrea (HerausgeberIn)
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Universität Rostock, Rostock ; Universitätsbibliothek

    Wissen und Macht sehen sich in der Wissenschaft in besonderer Weise miteinander verbunden. Erstens, da Wissenschaft immer auch von Subjekten betrieben wird, zweitens, da sie in Institutionen betrieben wird, wie Hochschulen, Schulen usw., die wiederum... more

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
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    Universitätsbibliothek Rostock
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    Wissen und Macht sehen sich in der Wissenschaft in besonderer Weise miteinander verbunden. Erstens, da Wissenschaft immer auch von Subjekten betrieben wird, zweitens, da sie in Institutionen betrieben wird, wie Hochschulen, Schulen usw., die wiederum teil eines Staatsapparates sind, der hegemoniale Wissbarkeiten und die Feststellung, dessen was Wissenschaftlichkeit ist und Wissenschaftswert hat, steuert. Die Beiträge aus den Bereichen Didaktik, Diversity Mangement, Literatur- und Kulturwissenschaft, Pädagogik und Soziologie, die in diesem Band vereint sind, zielen auf eine queer-feministische Wissens(schafts)kritik ab. Nicht nur kritische und emanzipierende Forschung soll dadurch angeregt, sondern auch herausgestellt werden, wie vielfältige Lebensweisen erfahrbar, sagbar, wissbar und vermittelbar gestaltet werden können.<ger>

     
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Behrens, Christoph (HerausgeberIn); Zittlau, Andrea (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: German; Italian; English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783860094808
    Other identifier:
    RVK Categories: EC 1876
    Series: Rostocker Interdisziplinäre Gender und Queer Studien ; Band 1
    Subjects: Geschlechterforschung; Queer-Theorie; Intersexualität; Wissenschaftskritik;
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (xii, 275 Seiten)
  5. The IWH Forecasting Dashboard
    from forecasts to evaluation and comparison
    Author: Heinisch, Katja; Behrens, Christoph; Döpke, Jörg; Foltas, Alexander; Fritsche, Ulrich; Köhler, Tim; Müller, Karsten; Puckelwald, Johannes; Reichmayr, Hannes
    Published: February 2023
    Publisher:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and... more

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    Location:
    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    eBook
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 548
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    The paper describes the "Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)". This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it possible to directly compare forecast quality across selected institutions and over time. It is partly based on data collected in the DFG-funded project "Macroeconomic Forecasts in Great Crises".

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268728
    Series: IWH technical reports ; 2023, no. 1 (February 2023)
    Subjects: Wirtschaftsprognose; Datenbank; Deutschland
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (13 Seiten, 0,94 MB), Diagramme
    Notes:

    Literaturverzeichnis: Seite 13
  6. German trade forecasts since 1970
    an evaluation using the panel dimension
    Author: Behrens, Christoph
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Humboldt-Universität, Berlin

    I evaluate German export growth and import growth forecasts published by eight professional forecasters for the years 1971 to 2019. The focus of the evaluation is on the weak and strong efficiency as well as the unbiasedness of the forecasts. To this... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    DS 715
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

     

    I evaluate German export growth and import growth forecasts published by eight professional forecasters for the years 1971 to 2019. The focus of the evaluation is on the weak and strong efficiency as well as the unbiasedness of the forecasts. To this end, I use a novel panel-data set and estimate fixed-effects models taking into account panel-corrected standard errors. For the full time period, I find that both export and import growth forecasts are weakly but not strongly efficient. Unbiasedness depends on the forecast horizon being analyzed, with longer-term four-quarter-ahead forecasts being biased. I, furthermore, check for a possible change in forecasting behavior after incisive economic events in recent German history. I find that the strong efficiency of the forecasts did not change substantially over time. However, there is a change in forecasting behavior regarding the weak form of efficiency after the financial crisis 2008/2009.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226036
    Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 ; no 26 (2020, October)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Chaos in the contact zone
    unpredictability, improvisation and the struggle for control in cultural encounters
    Contributor: Wodianka, Stephanie (Herausgeber); Behrens, Christoph (Herausgeber)
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  transcript, Bielefeld

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek J. C. Senckenberg, Zentralbibliothek (ZB)
    Signature:
    90.808.35
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    Title in the local catalogue:
    https://hds.hebis.de/ubffm/Record/HEB404855636
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    Source: Specialised Catalogue of Comparative Literature
    Contributor: Wodianka, Stephanie (Herausgeber); Behrens, Christoph (Herausgeber)
    Language: English
    Media type: Conference proceedings
    Format: Print
    ISBN: 9783837633894; 3837633896
    Other identifier:
    9783837633894
    RVK Categories: LB 31900 ; LB 52800 ; LB 57000 ; MR 7100
    DDC Categories: 300; 900
    Corporations / Congresses: Graduiertenkolleg Kulturkontakt und Wissenschaftsdiskurs (2015, Rostock)
    Series: Culture & theory
    Subjects: Kulturkontakt
    Scope: 251 Seiten, Illustrationen, 23 cm
    Notes:

    Literaturangaben
  8. Diversity concepts - diversity politics
    Contributor: Behrens, Christoph (Publisher)
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  Verlag Dr. Kovač, Hamburg

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    Content information
    http://d-nb.info/1082515639/04 (Inhaltsverzeichnis)
    Source: Leibniz-Zentrum für Literatur- und Kulturforschung
    Contributor: Behrens, Christoph (Publisher)
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    ISBN: 978-3-8300-8911-7
    Edition: 1. Auflage
    Series: Schriftenreihe Politica ; 105
    Subjects: Deutschland; Indonesien; Gesellschaft; Vielfalt; Identität; Inklusion <Soziologie>
    Scope: 173 Seiten : Ill.