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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 29.

  1. Euroscepticism and EU cohesion policy
    the impact of micro-level policy effectiveness on voting behaviour
    Author: Bachtrögler, Julia; Oberhofer, Harald
    Published: November 2018
    Publisher:  Vienna University of Economics and Business, Wien

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    Language: English
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    Series: Department of Economics working paper / Vienna University of Economics and Business ; no. 273
    Subjects: Euroscepticism; EU cohesion policy; effectiveness; voting behavior; French presidential election
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Backing the incumbent in difficult times
    the electoral impact of wildfires
    Author: Ramos, Roberto; Sanz, Carlos
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    Series: Documentos de trabajo / Banco de España, Eurosistema ; no. 1810
    Subjects: voting behavior; rally behind the leader; difference-in-differences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany
    Author: Bauernschuster, Stefan; Blum, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Koenig, Christoph
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German... more

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    How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279281
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10531 (2023)
    Subjects: pandemics; elections; health; voting behavior; issue salience; issue ownership; Weimar Republic
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. To Russia with love?
    the impact of sanctions on regime support
    Author: Gold, Robert; Hinz, Julian; Valsecchi, Michele
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, [Kiel]

    Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary... more

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    Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade — with regional-level variation. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanction exposure. For identification, we rely on a structural gravity model that allows us to compare observed trade flows to counterfactual flows in the absence of sanctions. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of Communist parties. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by president Putin and his party by 13 percent. Event studies and placebo estimations confirm the validity of our results.

     
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    Series: Kiel working paper ; no. 2212 (March 2023)
    Subjects: Economic sanctions; voting behavior; gravity estimation; rally-around-the-flag
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. The political effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Weimar Germany
    Author: Bauernschuster, Stefan; Blum, Matthias; Hornung, Erik; Koenig, Christoph
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German... more

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    How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893-1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.

     
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    hdl: 10419/278989
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16291
    Subjects: pandemics; elections; health; voting behavior; issue salience; issue ownership; Weimar Republic
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Immigration and nationalism in the long run
    Author: Lang, Valentin; Schneider, Stephan A.
    Published: August 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    During recent waves of immigration, support for nationalist parties has increased in many countries, but the political backlash against immigration differs strongly across regions. We identify an underlying cause for these differences by studying how... more

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    During recent waves of immigration, support for nationalist parties has increased in many countries, but the political backlash against immigration differs strongly across regions. We identify an underlying cause for these differences by studying how local experience with immigration shapes nationalist sentiment and electoral reactions to current immigration in the long run. Our analysis draws on a natural experiment in post-war Germany, where a short-term demarcation of occupation zones led to a discontinuous and quasi-exogenous distribution of forced migrants. Across this border, the population share of migrants differed by 12 percentage points. Applying a spatial regression discontinuity design, we combine historical migration records with panel data at the municipality level for the 1925-2021 period. The results reveal a substantially weaker backlash against contemporary immigration in regions where more migrants settled in the late 1940s. This historical experience reduces the nationalist backlash by about 20 percent. High levels of immigration activate this effect over a period of at least 70 years. To study the mechanisms, we conduct a geocoded survey with a randomized experiment and open-ended questions in the study region. We find that both family history and local collective memory of successful immigrant integration contribute to these effects. The results of the randomized experiment are consistent with the natural experiment, revealing how experience with immigration can curb nationalism.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279372
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10621 (2023)
    Subjects: migration; nationalism; persistence; voting behavior
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 111 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The impact of natives' attitudes towards immigrants on their integration in the host country
    Author: Schilling, Pia; Stillman, Steven
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), DIW Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Exploiting the random allocation of asylum seekers to different locations in Germany, we study the impact of right-wing voting on refugees' integration. We find that in municipalities with more voting for the right-wing AfD, refugees have worse... more

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    Exploiting the random allocation of asylum seekers to different locations in Germany, we study the impact of right-wing voting on refugees' integration. We find that in municipalities with more voting for the right-wing AfD, refugees have worse economic and social integration. These impacts are largest for groups targeted by AfD campaigns and refugees are also more likely to suffer from harassment and right-wing attacks in areas with greater AfD support. Positive interactions with locals are also less likely and negative opinions about immigration spillover to supporters of other parties in these areas. On the other hand, stronger support for pro-immigrant parties enhances social integration.

     
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    hdl: 10419/259557
    Series: SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 1166 (2022)
    Subjects: Immigrants' integration; refugees; hostile attitudes; voting behavior
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Ignorance is bliss?
    age, misinformation, and support for women's representation
    Author: Burden, Barry C.; Ono, Yoshikuni
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Series: RIETI discussion paper series ; 20-E, 066 (July 2020)
    Subjects: female politicians; elections; voting behavior; public opinion
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Civil rights protests and election outcomes
    exploring the effects of the Poor People's Campaign
    Author: Anderson, D. Mark; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Karbownik, Krzysztof; Rees, Daniel I.; Steffens, Camila
    Published: December 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The Poor People's Campaign (PPC) of 1968 was focused on highlighting, and ultimately reducing, poverty in the United States. As part of the campaign, protestors from across the country were transported to Washington, D.C. in 6 separate bus caravans,... more

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    The Poor People's Campaign (PPC) of 1968 was focused on highlighting, and ultimately reducing, poverty in the United States. As part of the campaign, protestors from across the country were transported to Washington, D.C. in 6 separate bus caravans, each of which made stops en route to rest, recruit, and hold non-violent protests. Using data from 1960-1970, we estimate the effects of these protests on congressional election outcomes. In the South, we find that PPC protests led to reductions in Democratic vote share and turnout, while in the West they may have benefited Democratic candidates at the expense of their Republican rivals.

     
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    hdl: 10419/282794
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16667
    Subjects: Poor People's Campaign; election outcomes; voting behavior; protests; race
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Women use more positive language than men
    candidates' strategic use of emotive language in election campaigns
    Author: Barnes, Tiffany D.; Crabtree, Charles; Matsuo, Akitaka; Ono, Yoshikuni
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Series: RIETI discussion paper series ; 22-E, 114 (December 2022)
    Subjects: women politicians; elections; voting behavior; public opinion
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Why are there more women in the upper house?
    Author: Kasuya, Yūko; Miwa, Hirofumi; Ono, Yoshikuni
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  RIETI, [Tokyo, Japan]

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    Series: RIETI discussion paper series ; 22-E, 094 (September 2022)
    Subjects: bicameralism; gender; elections; voting behavior; experiment; Japanese politics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  12. The legacy of authoritarianism in a democracy
    Author: Sur, Pramod Kumar
    Published: February 2022
    Publisher:  [Asian Growth Research Institute], [Fukuoka, Japan]

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    Series: Working paper series / Asian Growth Research Institute ; vol. 2022, 01
    Subjects: Democracy; authoritarianism; voting behavior; voter turnout; confidence in institutions; family planning; India
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Jati, local public goods and village governance
    private actions and public outcomes
    Author: Jha, Raghbendra; Nagarajan, Hari K.; Tagat, Anirudh
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  [Australia South Asia Research Centre], [Canberra]

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    Series: ASARC working paper ; 2019, 04
    Subjects: Economic development; voting behavior; decentralization; parochial politics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right?
    the impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level
    Author: Fremerey, Melinda; Hörnig, Lukas; Schaffner, Sandra
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Düsseldorf, Germany

    We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on voting for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the national parliamentary election in 2017 in Germany. Drawing on unique small-scale data enables us to... more

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    We investigate the effect of the refugee inflow between 2014 and 2017 on voting for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the national parliamentary election in 2017 in Germany. Drawing on unique small-scale data enables us to distinguish between the contact theory, captured by the inflow of refugees into the immediate neighborhood (1km x 1km), and county-level (NUTS 3) effects, which might pick-up other, broader factors such as media coverage or specific county-level policies. We alleviate concerns of an endogenous refugee allocation by a shift-share instrument. Our results indicate that the contact theory is valid in urban West Germany, i. e., higher refugee inflows in West German urban neighborhoods decrease the shares of far-right voting, while there is no robust evidence of a relationship between refugee inflow and far-right vote shares in East Germany and rural West Germany.

     
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    ISBN: 9783863043865
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    hdl: 10419/251890
    Series: Discussion paper / Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) ; no 387
    Subjects: voting behavior; neighborhood characteristics; refugees; immigration
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Medieval anti-semitism, Weimar social capital, and the rise of the nazi party
    a reconsideration
    Author: Guinnane, Timothy; Hoffman, Philip
    Published: November 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    The persistence literature in economics and related disciplines connects recent outcomes to events long ago. This influential literature marks a promising development but has drawn criticism. We discuss two prominent examples that ground the rise of... more

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    The persistence literature in economics and related disciplines connects recent outcomes to events long ago. This influential literature marks a promising development but has drawn criticism. We discuss two prominent examples that ground the rise of the Nazi Party in distant historical roots. Several econometric, analytical, and historical errors undermine the papers' contention that deeply rooted culture and social capital fueled the Nazi rise. The broader lesson is that research of this type works best when it incorporates careful econometrics, serious consideration of underlying mechanisms (including formal theory), and, most important, scrupulous attention to history and to the limitations of historical data.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267327
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10095 (2022)
    Subjects: historical persistence; medieval pogroms; social capital; culture; networks; Nazism; voting behavior; anti-Semitism; political parties; religion; empirical economics; data based estimates; econometrics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Accounting for the long-term stability of the welfare-state regimes in a model with distributive preferences and social norms
    Author: Le Garrec, Gilles
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  OFCE, Paris, France

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    Series: Sciences Po OFCE working paper ; no 2023, 01
    Subjects: Redistribution; voting behavior; fairness; endogenous preferences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Homophily in voting behavior
    evidence from preferential voting
    Author: Coufalová, Lucie; Mikula, Stepan; Ševčík, Michal
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Masaryk University, Brno

    Homophily in Voting Behavior: Evidence from Preferential Voting Abstract: Homophily is a strong determinant of many types of human relationships. It affects, for example, whom we marry and potentially also whom we vote for. We use data on... more

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    Homophily in Voting Behavior: Evidence from Preferential Voting Abstract: Homophily is a strong determinant of many types of human relationships. It affects, for example, whom we marry and potentially also whom we vote for. We use data on preferential voting from Czech parliamentary elections in 2006, 2010, 2013, and 2017 matched with 2011 Census data to identify the effect of homophily on voting behavior. We find that a one percent increase in the share of the municipality’s population that has the same occupation or education level as the candidate increases the number of preferential votes that candidate receives by 0.7% or 0.5%, respectively. We also find that candidates who live in the voters’ municipality receive a substantially higher number of preferential votes.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267966
    Series: MUNI ECON ; n. 2022, 04
    Subjects: voting behavior; homophily; preferential voting; Czech parliamentary electio
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The grass is not greener on the other side
    the role of attention in voting behaviour
    Author: Coufalová, Lucie; Mikula, Stepan
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Masaryk University, Brno

    The effect of ranking and the effect of attention both increase the chances that candidates running in the top positions of electoral lists will win voters' support. We exploit a variation in ballot layout (the location of the break between the first... more

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    The effect of ranking and the effect of attention both increase the chances that candidates running in the top positions of electoral lists will win voters' support. We exploit a variation in ballot layout (the location of the break between the first and second sides of the ballot) in the 2006–2017 Czech parliamentary elections to disentangle these effects and identify the effect of attention. We show that being listed on the reverse side of the ballot paper decreases electoral support by at least 50 %.

     
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    Series: MUNI ECON ; n. 2022, 08
    Subjects: voting behavior; attention; preferential voting; Czech parliamentary elections
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Medieval anti-semitism, Weimar social capital, and the rise of the Nazi Party
    a reconsideration
    Author: Guinnane, Timothy; Hoffman, Philip
    Published: 12 December 2022
    Publisher:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, [Cambridge]

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    Edition: This version: November 2022
    Series: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2271
    Subjects: Historical persistence; medieval pogroms; social capital; culture; networks; Nazism; voting behavior; anti-Semitism; political parties; religion; empirical economics; data based estimates; econometrics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Terrorism and voting behavior
    evidence from the United States
    Author: Baccini, Leonardo; Brodeur, Abel; Nossek, Sean; Shor, Eran
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen

    This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify... more

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    This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify the political impacts of terrorism. We first confirm that the success of terror attacks is plausibly random by showing that it is orthogonal to potential confounders. We then show that on average successful attacks have no effect on presidential and non-presidential elections. As a benchmark, we also rely on a more naïve identification strategy using all the counties not targeted by terrorists as a comparison group. We show that using this naïve identification strategy leads to strikingly different results overestimating the effect of terror attacks on voting behavior. Overall, our results indicate that terrorism has less of an in uence on voters than is usually thought.

     
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    hdl: 10419/228588
    Series: GLO discussion paper ; no. 755
    Subjects: terrorism; voting behavior
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Terrorism and voting behavior: evidence from the United States
    Author: Baccini, Leonardo; Brodeur, Abel; Nossek, Sean; Shor, Eran
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify... more

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    This paper examines the impact of terrorism on voting behavior in the United States. We rely on an exhaustive list of terror attacks over the period 1970-2016 and exploit the inherent randomness of the success or failure of terror attacks to identify the political impacts of terrorism. We first confirm that the success of terror attacks is plausibly random by showing that it is orthogonal to potential confounders. We then show that on average successful attacks have no effect on presidential and non-presidential elections. As a benchmark, we also rely on a more naïve identification strategy using all the counties not targeted by terrorists as a comparison group. We show that using this naïve identification strategy leads to strikingly different results overestimating the effect of terror attacks on voting behavior. Overall, our results indicate that terrorism has less of an influence on voters than is usually thought.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/232786
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14034
    Subjects: terrorism; voting behavior
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. The refugee crisis and right-wing populism: evidence from the Italian dispersal policy
    Author: Campo, Francesco; Giunti, Sara; Mendola, Mariapia
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper examines how the 2014-2017 'refugee crisis' in Italy affected voting behaviour and the rise of right-wing populism in national Parliamentary elections. We collect unique administrative data throughout the crisis and leverage exogenous... more

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    This paper examines how the 2014-2017 'refugee crisis' in Italy affected voting behaviour and the rise of right-wing populism in national Parliamentary elections. We collect unique administrative data throughout the crisis and leverage exogenous variation in refugee resettlement across Italian municipalities induced by the Dispersal Policy. We find a positive and significant effect of the share of asylum seekers on support for radical-right anti-immigration parties. The effect is heterogeneous across municipality characteristics, yet robust to dispersal policy features. We provide causal evidence that the anti-immigration backlash is not rooted in adverse economic effects, while it is triggered by radical-right propaganda.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/232836
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14084
    Subjects: immigration; refugee crisis; voting behavior; dispersal policy; impact evaluation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Essays in political economics
    Author: Meriläinen, Jaakko
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, Stockholm University, Stockholm

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    Language: English
    Media type: Dissertation
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    ISBN: 9789177976271
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    Series: Monograph series / Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stockholm ; no. 100
    Subjects: Class-based voting; close elections; economic policy; ideology; local government; political parties; political promotions; political representation; politician quality; rank effects; regression discontinuity design; voting behavior
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 444 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Dissertation, Stockholm University, 2019
  24. Peers' race in adolescence and voting behavior
    Author: Polipciuc, Maria; Cörvers, Frank; Montizaan, Raymond
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Using a representative longitudinal survey of U.S. teenagers, we investigate how peer racial composition in high school affects individual turnout of young adults. We exploit across-cohort, within-school differences in peer racial composition. One... more

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    Using a representative longitudinal survey of U.S. teenagers, we investigate how peer racial composition in high school affects individual turnout of young adults. We exploit across-cohort, within-school differences in peer racial composition. One within-school standard deviation increase in the racial diversity index leads to a 2.2 percent increase in the probability of being registered to vote seven years later and to a 2.6 percent higher probability of voting six years later. These effects are likely due to positive interracial contact when socialization has long-lasting effects: higher racial diversity in school is linked to more interracial friendships in school and later on.

     
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    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14140
    Subjects: voting behavior; school-cohort racial diversity; peers
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Class, social mobility, and voting
    evidence from historical voting records
    Author: Dewan, Torun; Kam, Christopher; Meriläinen, Jaakko; Tukiainen, Janne
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Aboa Centre for Economics, Turku

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    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/233357
    Series: Discussion paper / Aboa Centre for Economics ; no. 142
    Subjects: Class-based voting; economic voting; social mobility; voting behavior; poll books
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen