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  1. The CO 2 content of the TLTRO III scheme and its greening
    Published: May 2023
    Publisher:  Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London

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    Language: English
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    Series: Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy working paper ; no. 422
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment working paper ; no. 398
    Subjects: TLTRO; CO 2 emissions; transition risk; monetary policy; financial stability
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten)
  2. The road to Paris
    stress testing the transition towards a net-zero economy : the energy transition through the lens of the second ECB economy-wide climate stress test

    The transition to a carbon-neutral economy is necessary to limit the negative impact of climate change and has become one of the world's most urgent priorities. This paper assesses the impact of three potential transition pathways, differing in the... more

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    The transition to a carbon-neutral economy is necessary to limit the negative impact of climate change and has become one of the world's most urgent priorities. This paper assesses the impact of three potential transition pathways, differing in the timing and level of ambition of emission reductions, and quantifies the associated investment needs, economic costs and financial risks for corporates, households and financial institutions in the euro area. Building on the first ECB top-down, economy-wide climate stress test, this paper contributes to the field of climate stress testing by introducing three key innovations. First, the design of three short-term transition scenarios that combine the transition paths developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) with macroeconomic projections that account for the latest energy-related developments. Second, the introduction of granular sectoral dynamics and energy-specific considerations by country relevant to transition risk. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of transition risk on the euro area private sector and on the financial system, using a granular dataset that combines climate, energy-related and financial information for millions of firms within the euro area credit register and securities database, and country-level data on households. By comparing different transition scenarios, the results of the exercise show that acting immediately and decisively would provide significant benefits for the euro area economy and financial system, not only by maintaining the optimal net-zero emissions path (and therefore limiting the physical impact of climate change), but also by limiting financial risk. An accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy would be helpful to contain risks for financial institutions and would not generate financial stability concerns for the euro area, provided that firms and households could finance their green investments in an orderly manner. However, the heterogeneous results across economic sectors and banks suggest that more careful monitoring of certain entities and subsets of credit exposures will be required during the transition process.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289961578
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278640
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; No 328
    Subjects: climate stress test; transition risk; climate scenarios; energy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (98 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The greening of lending
    mortgage pricing of energy transition risk
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 1016 (March 2023)
    Subjects: Mortgage pricing; energy efficiency; climate change; transition risk
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Climate policy and transition risk in the housing market
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 918
    Subjects: Climate policy; transition risk; house prices; financial stability; wealth inequality
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Pricing climate transition risk
    evidence from European corporate CDS
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    The European low-carbon transition began in the last few decades and is accelerating to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper examines how climate-related transition indicators of a large European corporate firm relate to its CDS-implied... more

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    The European low-carbon transition began in the last few decades and is accelerating to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper examines how climate-related transition indicators of a large European corporate firm relate to its CDS-implied credit risk across various time horizons. Findings show that firms with higher GHG emissions have higher CDS spreads at all tenors, including the 30-year horizon, particularly after the 2015 Paris Agreement, and in prominent industries such as Electricity, Gas, and Mining. Results suggest that the European CDS market is currently pricing, to some extent, albeit small, the exposure to transition risk for a firm across different time horizons. However, it fails to account for a company's efforts to manage transition risks and its exposure to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. CDS market participants seem to find challenging to risk-differentiate ETS-participating firms from other firms.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    hdl: 10419/271518
    Series: SAFE working paper ; no. 387 (May 2023)
    Subjects: climate change; transition risk; credit risk; credit default swap; emissionstrading system (ETS); financial markets
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 91 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The effect of U.S. climate policy on financial markets
    an event study of the inflation reduction act
    Published: November 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) represents the largest climate policy action ever undertaken in the United States. Its legislative path was marked by two abrupt shifts as the likelihood of climate policy action fell to near zero and then... more

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    The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) represents the largest climate policy action ever undertaken in the United States. Its legislative path was marked by two abrupt shifts as the likelihood of climate policy action fell to near zero and then rose to near certainty. We investigate equity price reactions to these two events, which represent major realizations of climate policy transition risk. Our results highlight the heterogeneous nature of climate policy risk exposure. We find sizable reactions that differ by industry as well as across firm-level measures of greenness such as environmental scores and emission intensities. While the financial market response to the IRA was economically significant, it did not lead to instability or financial stress, suggesting that transition risks posed by climate policies even as ambitious as the IRA may be manageable.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/282427
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10739 (2023)
    Subjects: transition risk; stranded assets; event study; carbon emissions; ESG scores; green stocks; brown stocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The CO2 content of the TLTRO III scheme and its greening
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: DNB working paper ; no. 792 (October 2023)
    Subjects: TLTRO; CO2 emissions; transition risk; monetary policy; financial stability
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The effect of U.S. climate policy on financial markets
    an event study of the inflation reduction act
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2023, 30 (September 2023)
    Subjects: transition risk; stranded assets; event study; carbon emissions; ESG scores; green stocks; brown stocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. The road to Paris
    stress testing the transition towards a net-zero economy : the energy transition through the lens of the second ECB economy-wide climate stress test

    The transition to a carbon-neutral economy is necessary to limit the negative impact of climate change and has become one of the world's most urgent priorities. This paper assesses the impact of three potential transition pathways, differing in the... more

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    The transition to a carbon-neutral economy is necessary to limit the negative impact of climate change and has become one of the world's most urgent priorities. This paper assesses the impact of three potential transition pathways, differing in the timing and level of ambition of emission reductions, and quantifies the associated investment needs, economic costs and financial risks for corporates, households and financial institutions in the euro area. Building on the first ECB top-down, economy-wide climate stress test, this paper contributes to the field of climate stress testing by introducing three key innovations. First, the design of three short-term transition scenarios that combine the transition paths developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) with macroeconomic projections that account for the latest energy-related developments. Second, the introduction of granular sectoral dynamics and energy-specific considerations by country relevant to transition risk. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of transition risk on the euro area private sector and on the financial system, using a granular dataset that combines climate, energy-related and financial information for millions of firms within the euro area credit register and securities database, and country-level data on households. By comparing different transition scenarios, the results of the exercise show that acting immediately and decisively would provide significant benefits for the euro area economy and financial system, not only by maintaining the optimal net-zero emissions path (and therefore limiting the physical impact of climate change), but also by limiting financial risk. An accelerated transition to a carbon-neutral economy would be helpful to contain risks for financial institutions and would not generate financial stability concerns for the euro area, provided that firms and households could finance their green investments in an orderly manner. However, the heterogeneous results across economic sectors and banks suggest that more careful monitoring of certain entities and subsets of credit exposures will be required during the transition process.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289961578
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278640
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; No 328
    Subjects: climate stress test; transition risk; climate scenarios; energy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (98 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. The impact of climate change and policies on productivity
    A report of the ESCB Expert Group on productivity, innovation and technological changes

    The impact of climate change on European Union (EU) countries and regions is poised to exhibit considerable diversity, influenced by factors encompassing average temperature, sectoral composition, developmental stages, and adaptation endeavours. The... more

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    The impact of climate change on European Union (EU) countries and regions is poised to exhibit considerable diversity, influenced by factors encompassing average temperature, sectoral composition, developmental stages, and adaptation endeavours. The transition towards a more climate-friendly economy demands a well-orchestrated approach to mitigate enduring productivity costs. This shift will have varied implications for businesses, contingent upon their scale, access to financial resources, and capacity for innovation. The formulation of transition policies holds the potential to foster green innovation without displacing other initiatives, yet stringent climate regulations might impede the productivity ascent of pollutantemitting enterprises. It will thus take time to reap the benefits of innovation. The efficacy of the policy mix is of critical importance in determining the trajectory of success. Market-driven mechanisms exhibit milder distortions compared to nonmarket-based strategies, though they may not inherently stimulate innovation. Significantly, subsidies earmarked for green research and development (R&D) emerge as a pivotal instrument for fostering innovation, thus constituting a vital component of the policy repertoire during the green transition. The implementation of transition policies will inevitably trigger a substantial reallocation of resources among and within sectors, potentially carrying short-term adverse ramifications. Notably, considerable productivity disparities exist between top and bottom emitters within specific industries. The transition period poses a risk to a substantial proportion of firms and can erode employment opportunities, with a likely decline in new ventures within affected sectors.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Contributor: Bijnens, Gert (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289964081
    Other identifier:
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; No 340
    Subjects: climate change impact; productivity; transition risk; climate transitionpolicies; physical risk; green innovation; economic reallocation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. ECB economy-wide climate stress test
    methodology and results

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humankind this century. If left unchecked, it is likely to result in more frequent and severe climatic events, with the potential to cause substantial disruption to our economies, businesses and... more

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    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humankind this century. If left unchecked, it is likely to result in more frequent and severe climatic events, with the potential to cause substantial disruption to our economies, businesses and livelihoods in the coming decades. Yet the associated risks remain poorly understood, as climate shocks differ from the financial shocks observed during previous crises. This paper describes the ECB’s economy-wide climate stress test, which has been developed to assess the resilience of non-financial corporates (NFCs) and euro area banks to climate risks, under various assumptions in terms of future climate policies. This stress test comprises three main pillars: (i) climate-specific scenarios to project climate and macroeconomic conditions over the next 30 years; (ii) a comprehensive dataset that combines climate and financial information for millions of companies worldwide and approximately 1,600 consolidated euro area banks; (iii) a novel set of climate-specific models to capture the direct and indirect transmission channels of climate risk drivers for firms and banks.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289948357
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    hdl: 10419/246212
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 281 (September 2021)
    ECB strategy review
    Subjects: climate stress-test; transition risk; physical risk; climate scenarios
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (91 Seiten)
  12. Approaches to climate risk analysis in FSAPs

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9798400213014; 9798400212970
    Other identifier:
    Series: Staff climate notes ; 2022, 005
    Subjects: Climate change; physical risk; transition risk; risk analysis; stress testing; Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Climate-related stress testing
    transition risk in Colombia
    Published: Nov 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank-... more

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    This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms' balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513599205
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    Series: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 261
    Subjects: Climate crisis; climate change; transition risk; carbon emission; carbon tax; green economy; environmental taxes; banking stress; stress testing; financial stability; Colombia; Banks; Depository Institutions; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Financing Policy; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Approaches to climate risk analysis in FSAPs

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    VS 849
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    E-Book International Monetary Fund
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    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
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    E-Book IMF
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    Volltext (kostenfrei)
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9798400213014; 9798400212970
    Other identifier:
    Series: Staff climate notes ; 2022, 005
    Subjects: Climate change; physical risk; transition risk; risk analysis; stress testing; Financial Sector Assessment Program
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Climate change and fiscal sustainability
    risks and opportunities
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Cambridge working paper in economics ; 2163
    Janeway Institute working paper series ; 2021, 07
    Subjects: Sovereign debt; climate change; net zero; transition risk; productivity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Climate-related stress testing
    transition risk in Colombia
    Published: Nov 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank-... more

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    This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms' balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513599205
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper / International Monetary Fund ; WP/21, 261
    Subjects: Climate crisis; climate change; transition risk; carbon emission; carbon tax; green economy; environmental taxes; banking stress; stress testing; financial stability; Colombia; Banks; Depository Institutions; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Financing Policy; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Inflation expectations and climate concern
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Using survey data from German households, we find that individuals with lower climate concern tend to have higher inflation expectations up to five years ahead. This correlation is most pronounced among individuals with extremely high inflation... more

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    DS 12
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    Using survey data from German households, we find that individuals with lower climate concern tend to have higher inflation expectations up to five years ahead. This correlation is most pronounced among individuals with extremely high inflation expectations. Evaluating candidate explanations, we find that part of the link between climate concern and inflation expectations can be associated with individuals’ perceived exposures to climate-related risks and with their distrust in the central bank. Overall, our results suggest that climate change perceptions matter for inflation expectations.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957298805
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251958
    Series: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2022, 12
    Subjects: Climate change; inflation expectations; physical risk; transition risk; central bank distrust; household surveys
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk
    Published: January 2022
    Publisher:  Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm

    This paper explores how the need to transition to a low-carbon economy influences credit risk. It develops a novel dataset covering firms' greenhouse gas emissions over time alongside information on strategies for managing transition risk, including... more

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    This paper explores how the need to transition to a low-carbon economy influences credit risk. It develops a novel dataset covering firms' greenhouse gas emissions over time alongside information on strategies for managing transition risk, including climate disclosure practices and forward-looking emission reduction targets. It assesses how such metrics influence firms' credit ratings and their market-implied distance-to-default. High emissions tend to be associated with higher credit risk. But disclosing emissions and setting emission reduction targets are associated with lower credit risk, with the effect somewhat stronger for more ambitious climate commitments. After the Paris agreement, firms most exposed to transition risk also saw their ratings deteriorate relative to otherwise comparable firms, with the effect larger for European than US firms, probably reflecting differential climate policy expectations. These results have policy implications for corporate disclosures and strategies around climate change, and the treatment of climate-related transition risk in the financial sector

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251307
    Series: Sveriges Riksbank working paper series ; 409
    Subjects: climate change; transition risk; disclosure; net zero; green finance; credit risk
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. A climate change modelling framework for financial stress testing in Southern Africa
    Published: 5 August 2022
    Publisher:  Economic Research and Statistics Department, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria

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    VS 655
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: South African Reserve Bank working paper series ; WP, 22, 09
    Subjects: climate change models; transition risk; physical risk; central banks; South Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Analysis of ESG disclosures in pillar 3 reports
    a text mining approach
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Banco de España, Madrid

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    VS 513
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Documentos ocasionales / Banco de España ; no. 2204
    Subjects: ESG; environment; social; governance; sustainability; climate change; carbon emissions; environmental risks; physical risk; transition risk; natural language processing; Pillar 3
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. EU sustainability taxonomy for non -financial undertakings
    summary reporting criteria and extension to SMEs
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice Italy

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Working paper / Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics ; 2021, no. 29
    Subjects: EU sustainability taxonomy; environmental sustainability; sustainability plan; sustainable investment; ESG risk; climate change risk; transition risk; ESG sustainability report
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Climate stress test
    bad (or good) news for the market? : an event study analysis on euro zone banks
    Published: May 2022
    Publisher:  CEFIN, Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza, Dipartimento di Economia Marco Biagi, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Modena (Italy)

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    VS 667
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CEFIN working papers ; no 86
    Subjects: banks climate stress test; physical risk; transition risk; abnormal returns; event study
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Dati e metodi per la valutazione dei rischi climatici e ambientali in Italia

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    VS 547
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    Language: Italian
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Questioni di economia e finanza / Banca d'Italia ; number 732 (November 2022)
    Subjects: sustainable data gap; climate change; sustainable finance; physical risk; transition risk; GHG emissions; energy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten)
  24. Physical and transition risk premiums in euro area corporate bond markets
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

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    Series: DNB working paper ; no. 761 (January 2023)
    Subjects: Climate risk; physical risk; transition risk; corporate bonds
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Where Is the carbon premium?
    global performance of green and brown stocks
    Published: January 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    The relative equity pricing of more climate-friendly ("green") versus less climate-friendly ("brown") companies is an open question in climate finance. Previous research comes to conflicting conclusions, documenting either a "carbon premium" with... more

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    The relative equity pricing of more climate-friendly ("green") versus less climate-friendly ("brown") companies is an open question in climate finance. Previous research comes to conflicting conclusions, documenting either a "carbon premium" with brown stocks yielding higher returns, or the opposite, with green stocks outperforming brown. This paper provides new international evidence on this issue for a range of methodologies. Using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as reported by companies to measure their greenness, we document that green stocks across the G7 have generally provided higher returns than brown stocks for much of the past decade. We also try to reconcile our findings with previous work, and we provide some results for early 2022 that show that brown stocks outperformed green ones during the energy crisis.

     

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/271890
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10246 (2023)
    Subjects: climate risk; transition risk; carbon emissions; green stocks; brown stocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen