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Displaying results 1 to 7 of 7.

  1. State-dependent local projections
    Author: Gonçalves, Sílvia; Herrera, Ana María; Kilian, Lutz; Pesavento, Elena
    Published: April 2023
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department, Dallas

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 686
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 2302
    Subjects: local projection; business cycle; state-dependence; impulse response; multiplier; threshold; identification; nonlinear structural model; potential outcomes model
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Durable consumption, limited VAT pass-through and stabilization effects of temporary VAT changes
    Author: Clemens, Marius; Röger, Werner
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate... more

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    This paper revives the question of whether a temporary VAT change is an adequate instrument for crisis stabilization. In empirical assessments, we find that durable goods consumption fluctuates strongly over the business cycle and that VAT rate changes affect durable goods in particular. Therefore, we build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that is capable of addressing this major channel through which temporary VAT changes affect the economy. Furthermore, we allow for an imperfect pass-through of VAT measures to consumer prices via VAT-specific price adjustment costs. We compare the general VAT policy in the crisis with alternative stabilization policies, such as interest rate cuts, spending policies and a VAT cut only for durable goods. First, we find that considering durable goods in the model generates sizeable stabilization effects of VAT changes on consumption over a broad set of parameter ranges. Second, we find that the VAT policy can mimic monetary policy with minor exceptions. Third, the VAT rate cut has the highest short-term multiplier compared with government spending policies, but not in the medium-term. Fourth, a VAT rate reduction only on durable goods will generate strong GDP effects and even be self-financing in the first year. In contrast, a VAT reduction only on non-durables has small effects on GDP and is not self-financing. In view of our results, we conclude that a temporary VAT cut, when applied to durable goods, is an effective stabilization instrument.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/259561
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 2004
    Subjects: Value added tax; durable consumption; multiplier; business cycle; zero lower bound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Temporary VAT reduction during the lockdown
    Author: Clemens, Marius; Röger, Werner
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    This paper evaluates the temporary VAT reduction introduced by the German government over the 3Q2020:4Q2020 as a controversial part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. Critics argue that VAT reductions are ineffective because of limited pass-through to... more

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    This paper evaluates the temporary VAT reduction introduced by the German government over the 3Q2020:4Q2020 as a controversial part of the COVID-19 stimulus package. Critics argue that VAT reductions are ineffective because of limited pass-through to consumer prices and during lockdown. Advocates emphasize positive effects on durable goods and stress that a VAT reduction can partly substitute for a limited monetary policy response under the zero lower bound (ZLB). Thus, the VAT policy experiment of a sizable two-quarter VAT reduction allows studying the effects and transmissions channels of VAT measures. We extend a dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE) model to address a durable goods channel and a limited VAT pass-through and distinguish between sectors directly and indirectly affected by the lockdown. We trace lockdown and fiscal shocks and analyze the impact of the VAT reduction in conjunction with the lockdowns in 2020-2021 in Germany. We use nonlinear solution techniques to solve the model in the presence of a ZLB, forced savings and a partial lockdown constraint. Although the lockdown restriction reduces the effectiveness of a temporary VAT reduction, we find a short-term multiplier of 1.8. However, the cumulative multiplier reduces to below 1 over the medium term due to a shift in durable goods consumption toward 2020. Thus, the temporary VAT reduction is an effective instrument for short-term stabilization during the partial lockdown, but fiscal costs appear in the medium term.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/256810
    Edition: This (updated) version: May 2022
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1944
    Subjects: Value added tax; fiscal policy; COVID-19; lockdown; multiplier; Germany
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Local employment multipliers in US cities
    Author: Dijk, J. J. van
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Univ. of Oxford, Dep. of Economics, Oxford

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; 730
    Subjects: Local labour market; multiplier; tradable; non-tradable
    Scope: Online-Ressource (23 S.)
  5. Local multipliers in United States cities
    a replication of Moretti (2010)
    Author: Dijk, Jasper J. van
    Published: December 2015
    Publisher:  University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Oxford

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Moretti, Enrico (VerfasserIn des Bezugswerks)
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 771
    Subjects: Local labor market; multiplier; tradable; nontradable
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (21 Seiten)
  6. Investing in lagging regions is efficient
    a local multipliers analysis of U.S. cities
    Author: Dijk, Jasper J. van
    Published: December 2015
    Publisher:  University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Oxford

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Department of Economics discussion paper series / University of Oxford ; number 776
    Subjects: Local labour market; multiplier; tradable; non-tradable; unemployment; migration
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (21 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand
    Author: Lyu, Yifei
    Published: June 2021
    Publisher:  New Zealand Treasury, Wellington

    This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, I find small output multipliers for government consumption but large multipliers for government... more

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    This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks in New Zealand. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model, I find small output multipliers for government consumption but large multipliers for government investment. Importantly, the real exchange rate appreciates after positive government spending shocks, consistent with classic theory. Private consumption and private investment decrease after government consumption shocks, but increase after government investment shocks. I show that selecting the appropriate series for government investment is important to estimating its effects.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/268085
    Series: New Zealand Treasury working paper ; 21, 02
    Subjects: government consumption; government investment; New Zealand; multiplier; VAR
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen