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  1. Having fiscal space and using it
    Published: January 2015
    Publisher:  The World Bank, Washington, D.C

    As in previous years, global growth disappointed in 2014, but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies and developing countries. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by... more

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    As in previous years, global growth disappointed in 2014, but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies and developing countries. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in highincome countries, low oil prices, and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. However, continued weak global trade growth and gradually tightening financial conditions will constrain the recovery. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes four essays that analyze key challenges and opportunities currently confronting developing countries: fiscal policy as a countercyclical policy tool; causes and implications of cheap oil; weak trade that fails to act as an engine of growth; and remittances as a means of steadying consumption during sudden stops. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition

     
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    Volltext (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781464804458
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    Series: Global economic prospects ; January 2015
    A World Bank Group flagship report
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: Weltwirtschaft; Weltwirtschaftsordnung; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Entwicklung; Tendenz; commodities; emerging markets; fiscal space; global economy; poverty; remittances; structural reforms; trade; developing countries; fiscal policy; oil prices; consumption; forecasts; global trade; growth; inflation; macroeconomic outlook; macroeconomics; capital inflows; outlook; unemployment
    Scope: 1 Online Ressource (216 Seiten)
    Notes:

    Description based on print version record
  2. The economic benefits of Latino immigration
    how the migrant Hispanic population's demographic characteristics contribute to US growth
    Author: Huertas, Gonzalo; Kirkegaard, Jacob Funk
    Published: February 2019
    Publisher:  PIIE, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 594
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / PIIE, Peterson Institute for International Economics ; 19, 3
    Subjects: geographic labor mobility; immigrant workers; demographic trends; macroeconomic effects; forecasts; international migration
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Estimating the consequences of climate change from variation in weather
    Author: Lemoine, Derek
    Published: November 2018
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
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    Series: University of Arizona working paper ; 18, 09
    Subjects: climate; weather; information; forecasts; expectations; adjustment; adaptation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Predicting individual-level longevity with statistical and machine learning methods
    Author: Badolato, Luca; Decter-Frain, Ari; Irons, Nicholas J.; Miranda, Maria; Walk, Erin; Zhalieva, Elnura; Alexander, Monica; Basellini, Ugofilippo; Zagheni, Emilio
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: MPIDR working paper ; WP 2023, 008 (February 2023)
    Subjects: USA; forecasts; inequality; longevity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Forecasts
    consumption, production, and behavioral responses
    Author: Ahmad, Husnain Fateh; Gibson, Matthew; Nadeem, Fatiq; Nasim, Sanval; Rezaee, Arman
    Published: December 2022
    Publisher:  Williams College : Economics, Williamstown, MA, USA

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    Language: English
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    Series: Williams College Economics Department working paper series ; 2022, 05
    Subjects: forecasts; training; pollution avoidance; environmental information
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 80 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. A validation workflow for mortality forecasting
    Author: Duerst, Ricarda; Schöley, Jonas; Bohk-Ewald, Christina
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: MPIDR working paper ; WP 2023, 020 (April 2023)
    Subjects: forecasts; mortality
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Looking beyond the fed
    do central banks cause information effects?
    Author: Cotton, Christopher D.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  [Federal Reserve Bank of Boston], [Boston]

    The importance of central bank information effects is the subject of an ongoing debate. Most work in this area focuses on the limited number of monetary policy events at the Federal Reserve. I assess the degree to which nine other central banks cause... more

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    The importance of central bank information effects is the subject of an ongoing debate. Most work in this area focuses on the limited number of monetary policy events at the Federal Reserve. I assess the degree to which nine other central banks cause information effects. This analysis yields a much larger panel of primarily novel events. Following a surprise monetary tightening, economic forecasts improve in line with information effects. However, I find this outcome is driven by the predictability of monetary policy surprises and not information effects. My results support the view that central bank information effects may be overstated.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/280840
    Edition: This version: September 2022
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ; no. 22, 21
    Subjects: information effect; forecasts; monetary policy surprise; central bank
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 18 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Bank expectations and prudential outcomes
    Author: Suss, Joel; Hughes, Adam
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 1035 (August 2023)
    Subjects: Banks; forecasts; prudential risk
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Forecasting crashes with a smile
    Author: Martin, Ian; Shi, Ran
    Published: 12 October 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18524
    Subjects: forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Macro-fiscal management practices in Eastern and Southern Africa
    Author: Battersby, Bryn; Lienert, Ian
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary considerably. Based on a survey, we present data on staff size, functional scope and the forecasting performance of macro-fiscal departments and identify common challenges in the countries reviewed. Some MoFs perform many macro-fiscal functions, but actions of various kinds are needed to strengthen their macro-fiscal departments. This paper provides some guidance for policy-makers in the region for enhancing the quality and scope of macro-fiscal outputs

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513567730
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 30
    Subjects: macro-fiscal; macroeconomic; fiscal; function; medium-term; annual; forecasts; projections; policy analysis; fiscal strategy; ministry of finance; organizational
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Having fiscal space and using it
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  The World Bank, Washington, D.C

    Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and... more

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    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781464804441
    Series: Global economic prospects ; January 2015
    A World Bank Group flagship report
    Subjects: capital inflows; consumption; developing countries; fiscal policy; forecasts; global trade; growth; inflation; macroeconomic outlook; macroeconomics; oil prices; outlook; unemployment
    Scope: 1 Online Ressource (216 Seiten)
  12. Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility
    Author: Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and... more

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data than standard VARs. Predictive Bayes factors indicate that our outlier-augmented SV model provides the best data fit for the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier-augmented SV schemes fare at least as well as a conventional SV model.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957298812
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/253393
    Series: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2022, 13
    Subjects: Bayesian VARs; stochastic volatility; outliers; pandemics; forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Forecasts
    consumption, production, and behavioral responses
    Author: Ahmad, Husnain Fateh; Gibson, Matthew; Nadeem, Fatiq; Nasim, Sanval; Rezaee, Arman
    Published: December 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult for residents of developing countries to produce accurate forecasts, limiting responses to uncertain future events like air pollution. We study two randomized interventions in Lahore,... more

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    Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult for residents of developing countries to produce accurate forecasts, limiting responses to uncertain future events like air pollution. We study two randomized interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: 1) provision of air pollution forecasts; 2) general training in forecasting. Both reduced subjects' own air pollution forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills. Forecast receipt increased demand for protective masks and increased the responsiveness of outdoor time to pollution. Forecast recipients were willing to pay 60 percent of the cost of mobile internet for continued access.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272458
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15831
    Subjects: forecasts; training; pollution avoidance; environmental information
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. The social value of predicting hurricanes
    Author: Molina, Renato; Rudik, Ivan
    Published: October 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Hurricanes are among the costliest natural disasters in the world, with a significant portion of their impact linked to the accuracy of their forecasts. In this paper, we estimate the economic impacts of the official hurricane forecasts in the US and... more

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    Hurricanes are among the costliest natural disasters in the world, with a significant portion of their impact linked to the accuracy of their forecasts. In this paper, we estimate the economic impacts of the official hurricane forecasts in the US and develop a new approach for measuring the social value of forecast improvements. We find that pre-landfall federal protective expenditures exponentially increase with the forecast wind speed and with the degree of uncertainty about the forecast. Correspondingly, we find that forecast errors are costly: underestimating wind speed results in damages and post-landfall recovery spending up to an order of magnitude larger than if the forecast had been accurate. Our main contribution is to develop a new theoretically-grounded approach for estimating the marginal value of information and we apply it to establish the social value of improving hurricane forecasts. On the margin, the value of hurricane information is large and has increasing returns. We find that forecast improvements since 2009 reduced total costs associated with hurricanes by 5%, totalling hundreds of millions of dollars per hurricane. When aggregated, these benefits are over an order of magnitude greater than the cumulative budget for operating and improving the hurricane forecast system.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/267282
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10049 (2022)
    Subjects: natural disasters; hurricanes; tropical cyclones; forecasts; information; climate change
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. EU employment dynamics
    the pandemic years and beyond
    Author: Jestl, Stefan; Stehrer, Robert
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties.... more

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    The economic shock induced by the pandemic has plunged European economies into a recession. Lockdowns and social distancing measures have affected economic life in a substantial way, with industries and population groups facing varying difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the period up to 2026 by drawing on past sectoral trends and the latest macroeconomic forecast results from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Commission. A scenario analysis is also carried out, taking into account the great uncertainty and risks that are related to the baseline forecasts.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/266042
    Series: Research report / wiiw ; 457 (November 2021)
    Subjects: EU employment dynamics; forecasts; pandemic; recovery
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Macro-fiscal management practices in Eastern and Southern Africa
    Author: Battersby, Bryn; Lienert, Ian
    Published: February 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary... more

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    This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary considerably. Based on a survey, we present data on staff size, functional scope and the forecasting performance of macro-fiscal departments and identify common challenges in the countries reviewed. Some MoFs perform many macro-fiscal functions, but actions of various kinds are needed to strengthen their macro-fiscal departments. This paper provides some guidance for policy-makers in the region for enhancing the quality and scope of macro-fiscal outputs

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513567730
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 30
    Subjects: macro-fiscal; macroeconomic; fiscal; function; medium-term; annual; forecasts; projections; policy analysis; fiscal strategy; ministry of finance; organizational
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. The Fed's response to economic news explains the "Fed information effect"
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Swanson, Eric T.
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP,... more

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    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are a standard method of measuring monetary policy shocks. However, some recent studies have documented puzzling effects of these shocks on private-sector forecasts of GDP, unemployment, or inflation that are opposite in sign to what standard macroeconomic models would predict. This evidence has been viewed as supportive of a "Fed information effect" channel of monetary policy, whereby an FOMC tightening (easing) communicates that the economy is stronger (weaker) than the public had expected. The authors show that these empirical results are also consistent with a "Fed response to news" channel, in which incoming, publicly available economic news causes both the Fed to change monetary policy and the private sector to revise its forecasts. They provide substantial new evidence that distinguishes between these two channels and strongly favors the latter; for example, regressions that include the previously omitted public macroeconomic news, high-frequency stock market responses to Fed announcements, and a new survey that they conduct of individual Blue Chip forecasters all indicate that the Fed and private sector are simply responding to the same public news, and that there is little if any role for a "Fed information effect".

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/232953
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 155 (2021)
    Subjects: Federal Reserve; forecasts; survey; Blue Chip; Delphic forward guidance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility
    Author: Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, [Cleveland, OH]

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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 21, 02 (February 2021)
    Subjects: Bayesian VARs; stochastic volatility; outliers; pandemics; forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The impact of the covid-19 pandemic on merchandise trade in commonwealth countries
    Author: Escaith, Hubert; Khorana, Sangeeta
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Commonwealth Secretariat, London

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    Series: International trade working paper / Commonwealth Secretariat ; 2021, 02
    Subjects: COVID-19; Commonwealth; merchandise trade; goods; simulations; forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters
    Author: Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany

    Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss... more

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    Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous expectations. We then provide an overview of the empirical evidence supporting the different theories and point to directions for future research. Our literature review is complemented by empirical evidence based on the ZEW Financial Market Survey, covering the behavior of expectations heterogeneity during the recent surge in inflation in 2021 and 2022. A central finding is that differences in perceptions about the workings of the economy and heterogeneity in perceptions of the precision of new signals drive disagreement among professional forecasters. While the level of disagreement varies over the business cycle, differences in beliefs persist over time.

     
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    hdl: 10419/283583
    Series: Discussion paper / ZEW ; no. 23, 062 (12/2023)
    Subjects: disagreement; expectations; forecasts; rationality; survey data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Real-time consideration of systematic patterns in Maltese GDP data and revisions
    Author: Debono, Nathaniel
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Central Bank of Malta, [Valletta]

    Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy... more

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    Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be mitigated if data revisions were predictable, this paper sets out to identify any systematic patterns in the Maltese 'Real GDP' data and underlying revisions which could in turn prove useful when making economic assessments in real time. These patterns are identified through the application of VAR econometric techniques applied in previous economic literature to model Malta's first-release output data alongside the revisions made within a maximum of two years from the date of first release. Systematic patterns in Maltese data are recorded, and in turn used to anticipate in real time the revisions that might be made upon the publication of future vintages. The analyses conducted in this paper show that the real-time consideration of these forecasts has the potential to improve the precision with which past, contemporaneous and (forecasted) future Maltese output data could be interpreted in real time. The uncertainty surrounding these forecasts is also aptly demonstrated through the use of simulation techniques, density functions, and event probability forecasts.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Working papers / Central Bank of Malta ; WP/2024, 03
    Subjects: Real GDP; real-time; revisions; forecasts; uncertainty; Malta
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen