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Displaying results 1 to 6 of 6.

  1. Gambling habits and probability judgements in a Bayesian task environment
    Author: Dickinson, David L.; Reid, Parker
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Little is known about how gamblers estimate probabilities from multiple information sources. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n=465 participants (self-reported gamblers and... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Little is known about how gamblers estimate probabilities from multiple information sources. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n=465 participants (self-reported gamblers and non-gamblers). Our data failed to support our main hypotheses that experienced online gamblers would be more accurate Bayesian decision-makers compared to non-gamblers, that gamblers experienced in games of skill (e.g., poker) would be more accurate than gamblers experienced only in non-skill games (e.g., slots), or that accuracy would differ in females compared to males. Pairwise comparisons between these types of participants also failed to show any difference in decision weights placed on the two information sources. Exploratory analysis, however, revealed interesting effects related to self-reported gambling frequency. Specifically, more frequent online gamblers had lower Bayesian accuracy than infrequent gamblers. Also, those scoring higher in a cognitive reflection task were more Bayesian in weighting information sources when making belief assessments. While we report no main effect of sex on Bayesian accuracy, exploratory analysis found that the decline in accuracy linked to self-reported gambling frequency was stronger for females. Decision modeling found a decreased weight placed on new evidence (over base rate odds) in those who showed decreased accuracy, which suggests a proper incorporation of new information into one's probability assessments is important for more accurate assessment of probabilities in uncertain environments. Our results link frequency of gambling to worse performance in the critical probability assessment skills that should benefit gambling success (i.e., in skill-based games).

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279004
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 16306
    Subjects: gambling; Bayes rule; probability judgements; cognitive reflection
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. What makes a good trader?
    on the role of intuition and reflection on trader performance
    Author: Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David P.
    Published: 2016
    Publisher:  [Chapman University, Economic Science Institute], [Orange, CA]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: [Working papers / Chapman University, Economic Science Institute ; 16,20]
    Subjects: Experimental asset markets; behavioral finance; cognitive reflection; theory of mind,financial education
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 105 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Political ideology, mood response, and the confirmation bias
    Author: Dickinson, David L.
    Published: July 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    The confirmation bias is a well-known form of motivated reasoning that serves to protect an individual from cognitive discomfort. Hearing rival viewpoints or belief-opposing information creates cognitive dissonance, and so avoiding exposure to, or... more

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    The confirmation bias is a well-known form of motivated reasoning that serves to protect an individual from cognitive discomfort. Hearing rival viewpoints or belief-opposing information creates cognitive dissonance, and so avoiding exposure to, or discounting the validity of, dissonant information are rational strategies that may help avoid or mitigate negative emotion. Because there is often systematic thought involved in generating the confirmation bias, deliberation tends to promote this behavioral bias. Nevertheless, the importance of negative emotion in triggering the need for this bias is underappreciated. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by examining mood and the confirmation bias in the political domain. Using results from two studies and three distinct decision tasks, we present data on over 1100 participants documenting the confirmation bias in different settings. All methods (recruitment and sample size, hypotheses, variables, analysis plans, etc.) were preregistered on the Open Science Framework. Our data show evidence of a confirmation bias across distinct dimensions of belief and preference formation. As hypothesized, the data show a strong increase in self-reported negative mood states after viewing political statements or information that are dissonant with one's political ideology. Finally, while not as robust across tasks, we report evidence that supports our hypothesis that negative mood will moderate the strength of the confirmation bias. Together, these results highlight the importance of mood response in understanding the confirmation bias, which helps further our understanding of how this bias may be particularly difficult to combat.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263644
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15428
    Subjects: confirmation bias; sleep; deliberation; cognitive reflection; motivated reasoning
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 120 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Differences in cognitive reflection mediate gender differences in social preferences
    Author: Espín, Antonio M.; Capraro, Valerio; Corgnet, Brice; Gächter, Simon; Hernán González, Roberto; Kujal, Praveen; Rassenti, Stephen J.
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Chapman University, Economic Science Institute, [Orange, CA]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: ESI working papers ; 21, 22
    Subjects: gender differences; cognitive reflection; social preferences; self-interest; social efficiency; egalitarianism
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 74 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Political ideology, mood response, and the confirmation bias
    Author: Dickinson, David L.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Department of Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Department of Economics working paper / Appalachian State University ; number 22, 04 (June 2022)
    Subjects: confirmation bias; sleep; deliberation; cognitive reflection; motivated reasoning
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 119 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Some (mis)facts about 2D:4D, preferences and personality
    Author: Alonso, Judit; Di Paolo, Roberto; Ponti, Giovanni; Sartarelli, Marcello
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A., Valencia (Spain)

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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Edition: Version: December 2017
    Series: Array ; WP-AD 2017, 08
    Subjects: 2D:4D; cognitive reflection; gender; personality; risk; social preferences
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen