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Displaying results 1 to 16 of 16.

  1. The political costs of oil price shocks
    Published: May 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We explore the effect of oil import price shocks on political outcomes using a worldwide dataset on elections of chief executives. Oil import price shocks cause a reduction in the odds of reelection of incumbents, an increase in media chatter about... more

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    We explore the effect of oil import price shocks on political outcomes using a worldwide dataset on elections of chief executives. Oil import price shocks cause a reduction in the odds of reelection of incumbents, an increase in media chatter about fuel prices, and an increase in non-violent protests. These results are present in democracies but absent in autocracies. To explain the dichotomy, we show that the pass-through from international to domestic fuel prices is limited in autocracies with adverse consequences on levels of debt and international reserves. The results point to the interdependence of goods markets and politics.

     

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    hdl: 10419/263693
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9763 (2022)
    Subjects: elections; democracy; autocracy; incumbent; oil prices; economic shocks
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Shrinking spaces in the Middle East and North Africa
    supporting civil society resilience
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) gGmbH, Bonn

    Civil society organisations (CSOs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) face mounting challenges, especially in authoritarian states, where they encounter closures, persecution and smear campaigns. Consequently, their crucial work in advancing... more

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    Civil society organisations (CSOs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) face mounting challenges, especially in authoritarian states, where they encounter closures, persecution and smear campaigns. Consequently, their crucial work in advancing human rights, good governance and inclusive human development is increasingly stifled and criminalised. Activists and professionals linked to CSOs also endure surveillance and persecution. This should worry European policymakers since a vibrant and free civil society in MENA is in their interest, as it is key for human development. This policy brief proposes seven ways for development cooperation to protect CSOs in authoritarian regimes in the MENA and beyond. European foreign and development policies in the MENA region have led to governmental partnerships that often sustain authoritarian regimes at the expense of citizens’ rights, for instance on migration (Francavilla, 2023; Grimm & Roll, 2023). Although substantial humanitarian aid reaches conflict zones, one of the root causes of the continuing political violence and conflicts - absence of accountable democratic governments – remains inadequately addressed (Barakat & Fakih, 2021). To avoid further empowering authoritarian rule in the region, European policymakers should reassess their multi- and bilateral governmental cooperation. The prevalent assumption amongst many policymakers that the incumbent authoritarian regimes in MENA can provide political stability needs to be discarded. The stability paradigm guiding European relations with the Arab World should instead be replaced with a do-no-harm approach. Although “do no harm” is a core principle of European development cooperation policy, it often is ignored in practice or trumped by other interests (Leininger, 2023). Development cooperation benefitting citizens must prioritise inclusive human development through cooperation with a wide range of actors, including elected state bodies, independent media and watchdog CSOs (Rutzen, 2015). This policy brief develops seven recommendations for European policymakers in development cooperation. The first step is to overcome the prevalent stability-through-cooperation paradigm to prevent further negative effects on human rights, democracy and civil society. Therefore, it is important that European policymakers recognise these authoritarian regimes’ unwillingness to implement reforms that would reduce their control over political institutions. Second, it remains crucial that policymakers acknowledge the increasingly shrinking space for critical voices in civil society. Third, governments and regional organisations should give CSOs a voice at international summits and in international organisations to increase the visibility of their demands and show support for oppressed voices. Fourth, European development cooperation professionals should establish flexible crisis funding lines for at-risk CSOs and their staff. Fifth, at-risk journalists, activists or human rights defenders (HRDs) need access to fast-track visa programmes to ensure they can continue their work from abroad when the authorities want to silence them. Sixth, European development cooperation profession-als should continue to support marginalised voices and groups and push for more inclusive governance. Lastly, European governments should limit arms exports to authoritarian regimes.

     

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/279679
    Series: IDOS policy brief ; 2023, 17
    Subjects: civil society; democracy; autocracy; Shrinking Space; North Africa; Middle East; Repression; promotion of democracy; stability; Good Governance; rule of law; arms supply; human rights
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 13 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Dokument gelöscht auf Wunsch der Autor:in bzw. der Herausgeber:in am: 06.11.2023

  3. A glimpse of freedom
    allied occupation and political resistance in East Germany
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    This paper exploits the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within East Germany at the end of WWII to study political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered, 40% of what would become the... more

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    This paper exploits the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within East Germany at the end of WWII to study political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered, 40% of what would become the authoritarian German Democratic Republic was initially under Allied control but was ceded to Soviet control less than two months later. Brief Allied exposure increased protests during the major 1953 uprising. We use novel data on the appointment of local mayors and a retrospective survey to argue that even a "glimpse of freedom" can foster civilian opposition to dictatorship.

     

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    hdl: 10419/265827
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 15606
    Subjects: East Germany; political resistance; protest; autocracy; spatial RDD; World War II
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 75 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. A glimpse of freedom
    allied occupation and political resistance in East Germany
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), DIW Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    This paper exploits the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within East Germany at the end of WWII to study political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered, 40% of what would become the... more

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    This paper exploits the idiosyncratic line of contact separating Allied and Soviet troops within East Germany at the end of WWII to study political resistance in a non-democracy. When Nazi Germany surrendered, 40% of what would become the authoritarian German Democratic Republic was initially under Allied control but was ceded to Soviet control less than two months later. Brief Allied exposure increased protests during the major 1953 uprising. We use novel data on the appointment of local mayors and a retrospective survey to argue that even a "glimpse of freedom" can foster civilian opposition to dictatorship.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    hdl: 10419/266609
    Series: SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research ; 1176 (2022)
    Subjects: East Germany; political resistance; protest; autocracy; spatial RDD; World War II
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 76 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. AI-tocracy
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science, London

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    Series: Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance ; no. 1811 (November 2021)
    Subjects: artificial intelligence; autocracy; innovation; data; China; surveillance; political unrest
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 85 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. The political economy of Kazakhstan
    a case of good economics, bad politics?
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  CASE, Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw, Poland

    Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can 'good economics' somehow offset the effects of 'bad' politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has... more

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    Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can 'good economics' somehow offset the effects of 'bad' politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country's governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime remains strongly personalised around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile. In short, 'bad' politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, 'good' economics.

     

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    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9788371787225
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    hdl: 10419/274086
    Series: CASE working papers ; no. 15 (139/2021)
    Subjects: Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Politisches System; Governance; Wirtschaftsindikator; Sozialer Indikator; Marktwirtschaft; Marktzugang; Direktinvestition; Political networks; autocracy; investment
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The dynamics of property rights in modern autocracies
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Georgetown University, Department of Economics, Washington, DC

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    Series: Working papers / Georgetown University, Department of Economics ; 21, 12
    Subjects: Autocratic legalism; autocracy; anocracy; property rights; appropriation constraint; takings; civil society groups; Samuelson condition
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. The political economy of Kazakhstan: a case of good economics, bad politics?
    Published: July 2021
    Publisher:  IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany

    Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can 'good economics' somehow offset the effects of 'bad' politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has... more

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    Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can 'good economics' somehow offset the effects of 'bad' politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country's governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime remains strongly personalized around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile. In short, 'bad' politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, 'good' economics.

     

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    hdl: 10419/245605
    Series: Discussion paper series / IZA ; no. 14554
    Subjects: political networks; autocracy; investment
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Immigration policy theory
    thinking beyond the "western liberal-democratic" box
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  International Migration Institute network (IMIn), [Amsterdam]

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    Series: Working papers / International Migration Institute network ; paper 145 (January 2018)
    MADE project paper ; 3
    Subjects: immigration policy; theory; policymaking; political regimes; democracy; autocracy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten)
  10. Autocratic immigration policymaking
    the illiberal paradox hypothesis
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  International Migration Institute network (IMIn), [Amsterdam]

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    Series: Working papers / International Migration Institute network ; paper 147 (November 2018)
    MADE project paper ; 4
    Subjects: immigration policy; policymaking; political regimes; political practices; democracy; autocracy
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Current developments in West Africa’s regional integration
    challenges for the future design of foreign and development policy
    Published: 2024
    Publisher:  German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) gGmbH, Bonn

    On 16 September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger - all three states led by military regimes - decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel - AES). This move was prompted by the... more

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    OA
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    On 16 September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger - all three states led by military regimes - decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel - AES). This move was prompted by the worsening of the crisis within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2023, a crisis that reached its peak to date with the announcement by the three AES members on 28 January 2024 of their withdrawal from ECOWAS, a regional organisation set up back in 1975. In a socio-political context in which the role and functions of the state, the extent of state powers and the way in which they are exercised are increasingly being called into question, new forms of political and social organisation are developing. These are also influenced by the current geopolitical developments in the changing world order. At the same time, states and societies and the ongoing regional integration processes are facing major new challenges. Within ECOWAS, conventional ideas of state and society, values and structures are coming up against growing tendencies towards a new understanding of statehood and sovereignty. In the West Africa/Sahel region, new processes of nation-building and state-building are under way, underpinned by efforts to renew social cohesion and to integrate the ‘vital forces of the nation’ - a concept cited increasingly frequently in these countries – as comprehensively as possible. These developments call for a realignment of German and European foreign and development policy. The political and social conditions and expectations of the partners in the West Africa/Sahel region are currently undergoing profound transformation. They need to be aligned with the content and interests of the value-based foreign policy advocated by Germany - in line with the principle of a ‘partnership between equals’. Any appraisal of the future developments and integration of the dynamics that determine them must take account of the various integration processes, which are particularly diversified and run in parallel in this region. Adopting a comparative perspective, this paper provides an overview of the various regional organisations in the West Africa/Sahel region. It analyses the potential of each of them in terms of their development prospects and sustainability. In addition to the critical relationship between ECOWAS and the AES, it also examines the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Integrated Develop-ment Authority of the Liptako-Gourma Region (Autorité de Liptako-Gourma - ALG) and the G5 Sahel, which is currently being dissolved. If the partnership between Germany and Europe on the one hand and the West African and Sahel states on the other is to be continued, it will be vital to adopt a pragmatic approach and maintain a political dialogue with all the partners. The states in this region are extremely important to Europe’s future development. Moreover, it is only through communication based on mutual respect underpinning cooperation in the economic and development sectors that the growing influence of political powers such as Russia and Iran - whose ideas, interests and values are not in line with the Western Atlantic model of democracy governed by the rule of law - can be curbed effectively.

     

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    hdl: 10419/289485
    Series: IDOS policy brief ; 2024, 6
    Subjects: Sahel; ECOWAS; regional integration; autocracy; peace and security; Western Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten)
  12. Personnel, institutions, and power
    revisiting the concept of executive personalisation
    Published: January 2024
    Publisher:  German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), Hamburg

    Evidence points to an increasing personalisation of political power by chief executives in recent years. It is often argued that such personalisation contributes to the current trend of autocratisation and the global decline of democracy. Yet our... more

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    Evidence points to an increasing personalisation of political power by chief executives in recent years. It is often argued that such personalisation contributes to the current trend of autocratisation and the global decline of democracy. Yet our understanding hereof remains fractured, not least because there are a plethora of tacit understandings, definitions, and concepts vis-à-vis what political personalisation is. While potentially occurring in both autocracies and democracies, the scholarship is still too often siloed according to regime type. We thus develop a framework defining the phenomenon as a process in which the chief executive personalises power in policymaking and policy implementation by weakening the constraining capacities of relevant actors. The "personalisation of executive power" (PEXP) runs through three distinct mechanisms: personnel management, institutional engineering, and power arrogation. We illustrate the usefulness of our conceptual framework with four case studies during the COVID-19 pandemic: El Salvador, Ghana, South Korea, and Zimbabwe.

     

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    hdl: 10419/281768
    Series: GIGA working papers ; no 339
    Subjects: Macht; Vollziehende Gewalt; Personalisierung; Entscheidungsprozess; Entscheidungsbefugnis; Demokratie; Defizit; autocracy; democracy; executive; decision making; concentration of political power; personalisation; Covid-19 pandemic
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource
  13. The Sudan syndrome
    state-society contests and the future of democracy after the december 2018 revolution
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Series: ERF working papers series ; no. 1644 (August 2023)
    Subjects: Sudan syndrome; narrow corridor; political marketplace; conflicts; democracy; autocracy; social contract
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 86 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Elite selection in an autocracy
    the career costs of political ties
    Published: May 2023
    Publisher:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    We study the selection of the political elite in an autocratic state. Using detailed CV data on potential politicians in the German Democratic Republic, we track and quantify the position of individuals in the state hierarchy over time and exploit... more

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    We study the selection of the political elite in an autocratic state. Using detailed CV data on potential politicians in the German Democratic Republic, we track and quantify the position of individuals in the state hierarchy over time and exploit exogenous connections between individuals that were formed through imprisonment during the Nazi Era. We find asymmetric effects of being connected to the political elite: While being linked to the state's centre of power harms high-profile careers, they have positive effects on low-profile careers. An extensive analysis of potential mechanisms shows that the negative effect of being linked to the party leadership on individuals' probability to be part of the ruling elite is in line with anti-factionalism, whereas the positive effect on low-profile careers is in line with patronage.

     

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    hdl: 10419/278507
    Series: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 232
    Subjects: Political Economy; autocracy; political elite; selection mechanisms
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Carrots and sticks
    targeting the opposition in an autocratic regime
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    Autocratic regimes can use carrots and/or sticks to prevent being overthrown by protests. Carrots, i.e. resource allocation, reduce the probability of protests, but cannot help to end them. Sticks, i.e. repression, reduce the probability that... more

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    Autocratic regimes can use carrots and/or sticks to prevent being overthrown by protests. Carrots, i.e. resource allocation, reduce the probability of protests, but cannot help to end them. Sticks, i.e. repression, reduce the probability that protests overthrow the regime, but also decrease its popularity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, I show that residential construction and military presence increase in protest municipalities after an uprising in 1953 in former East Germany. This cannot be explained by preexisting differences, demand for housing, or external warfare considerations. Carrots were furthermore used to counteract sticks' negative effect on popularity. More construction is associated with more regime support.

     

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    hdl: 10419/278511
    Series: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 236
    Subjects: Political Economy; autocracy; Protests
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Assessment of the influence of institutions and globalization on environmental pollution for open and closed economies
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    As the environmental sustainability effectiveness of various political systems is taken into consideration, it is doubtful as to whether the presumption of the overall efficiency of democracy can be sustained in global governance architecture. The... more

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    As the environmental sustainability effectiveness of various political systems is taken into consideration, it is doubtful as to whether the presumption of the overall efficiency of democracy can be sustained in global governance architecture. The effectiveness of autocracies and democracies (i.e., governance indicators are compared in the present study) with reference to strengths and weaknesses in environmental objectives. This analysis explores the effect of autocracy, democracy, as well as the trend of globalization on CO2 emissions for open and closed economies from 1990 to 2020. Crucial indicators such as economic growth, renewable energy and non-renewable energy are controlled for while examining the roles of economic expansion on the disaggregated energy consumption portfolios for both open and closed economies. The empirical analysis revealed some insightful results. First, for the open economies, with the expectation of non-renewable energy which show a positive significant impact on emissions, all variables show a negative effect on emissions. Furthermore, the closed economies result indicate that, apart from renewable energy which has a negative relationship with emissions, all the variables including the interaction terms have a positive relation with emissions. However, an inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis was validated for both economies.

     

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    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/24, 005
    Subjects: Open economies; closed economies; democracy; autocracy; Environmental Kuznets Curve; globalization index; environmental sustainability
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen