Skip to main navigation Skip to main content
info(at)avldigital.remove-this.de
Deutsch English
Narrow Search
Search narrowed by
Last searches

Results for *

Displaying results 1 to 25 of 177.

  1. Financial frictions and stimulative effects of temporary corporate tax cuts
    Author: Gbohoui, William; Castro, Rui
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    This paper uses an industry equilibrium model where some firms are financially constrained to quantify the effects of a transitory corporate tax cut funded by a future tax increase on the U.S. economy. It finds that by increasing current cash-flows... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt / Forschungsbibliothek Gotha, Universitätsbibliothek Erfurt
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Bibliothek der Pädagogischen Hochschule Freiburg/Breisgau
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Technische Universität Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Heidenheim, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    e-Book Nationallizenz
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Thüringer Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Fachhochschule Kiel, Zentralbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    LZ 142
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Leuphana Universität Lüneburg, Medien- und Informationszentrum, Universitätsbibliothek
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Mosbach, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book Nationallizenz IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Offenburg, University of Applied Sciences, Bibliothek Campus Offenburg
    Signature:
    E-Book International Monetary Fund
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Hochschulbibliothek Pforzheim, Bereichsbibliothek Technik und Wirtschaft
    Signature:
    e-Book International Monetary Fund eLibrary
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

    Location:
    Duale Hochschule Baden-Württemberg Ravensburg, Bibliothek
    Signature:
    E-Book IMF
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan

    Location:
    Hochschule Albstadt-Sigmaringen, Bibliothek Sigmaringen
    Inter-library loan:
    No loan of volumes, only paper copies will be sent

     

    This paper uses an industry equilibrium model where some firms are financially constrained to quantify the effects of a transitory corporate tax cut funded by a future tax increase on the U.S. economy. It finds that by increasing current cash-flows tax cuts alleviate financing frictions, hereby stimulating current investment. Per dollar of tax stimulus, aggregate investment increases by 26 cents on impact, and aggregate output by 3.5 cents. The average effect masks heterogeneity: multipliers are close to 1 for constrained firms, especially new entrants, and negative for larger and unconstrained firms. The output effects extend well past the period the policy is reversed, leading to a cumulative multiplier of 7.2 cents. Multipliers are significantly larger when controlling for the investment crowding-out effect among unconstrained firms

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Content information
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Volltext (kostenfrei)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498300889
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 97
    Subjects: Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Capital income taxation in the Netherlands
    Author: Klemm, Alexander; Hebous, Shafik; Waerzeggers, Christophe
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper looks at capital income taxation in the Netherlands from an international and domestic perpective. The Netherlands is a major conduit country for FDI. Recent reforms taken by the Dutch authorities as well as public statements represent a... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper looks at capital income taxation in the Netherlands from an international and domestic perpective. The Netherlands is a major conduit country for FDI. Recent reforms taken by the Dutch authorities as well as public statements represent a strong move to address international tax avoidance, but it is too early to be able to detect the impact in the data, and measuring tax avoidance even in the past is fraught with difficulties. Domestically, the unique system, which for many financial assets effectively taxes wealth rather than capital income, leads to inequities and distortions. Owner-occupied housing is strongly tax-favored and in many cases effectively subsidized. Various reforms, not necessarily of a fundamental nature, would improve efficiency and equity

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573441
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 145
    Subjects: Netherlands; International Tax; Schedular Tax; Debt Bias; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; International Tax, Schedular Tax, Debt Bias; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Regional disparities and fiscal federalism in Russia
    Author: Dynnikova, Oksana; Kyobe, Annette; Slavov, Slavi
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper examines how regional disparities have evolved in Russia and how Russia's system of intergovernmental fiscal relations is managing these disparities. Regional disparities have fallen over the past two decades but remain relatively high.... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper examines how regional disparities have evolved in Russia and how Russia's system of intergovernmental fiscal relations is managing these disparities. Regional disparities have fallen over the past two decades but remain relatively high. Socioeconomic outcomes remain worse in lagging regions despite faster growth and convergence in income levels. The twin shocks of COVID-19 and lower oil prices appear to have impacted richer regions disproportionately. Compared to other large countries with federal systems of government, Russia stands out with its high reliance on direct taxes as a revenue source for its regions. Transfers from the federal budget to the regions provide some redistribution by reducing the dispersion in real per capita fiscal spending, but also tend to be associated with lower growth. The Russian fiscal system offers degrees of redistribution and risk sharing of around 26 and 18 percent, respectively-with in-kind social transfers contributing the most. Finally, federal transfers in the aggregate tend to be procyclical and are also fairly unresponsive to shocks to regions' own revenues

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573649
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 144
    Subjects: inequality; regional disparities; fiscal federalism; Russia; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Scenario analysis with the DD-PD mapping approach
    stock market shocks and U.S. corporate default risk
    Author: Chan-Lau, Jorge A.
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms' DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573533
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 143
    Subjects: probability of default; distance-to-default; default risk; stock markets; quantile regression; scenario analysis; stress test; Default Risk, Stock Markets and Quantile Regression; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Probability Of Default and Distance-To-Default; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Labor market reforms and earnings dynamics
    the Italian case
    Author: Hoffmann, Eran B.; Malacrino, Davide; Pistaferri, Luigi
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper summarizes statistics on the key aspects of the distribution of earnings levels and earnings changes using administrative (social security) data from Italy between 1985 and 2016. During the time covered by our data, earnings inequality and... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper summarizes statistics on the key aspects of the distribution of earnings levels and earnings changes using administrative (social security) data from Italy between 1985 and 2016. During the time covered by our data, earnings inequality and earnings volatility increased, while earnings mobility did not change significantly. We connect these trends with some salient facts about the Italian labor market, in particular the labor market reforms of the 1990s and 2000s which induced a substantial rise in fixedterm and part-time employment. The rise in parttime work explains much of the rise in earnings inequality, while the rise in fixed-term contracts explains much of the rise in volatility. Both these trends affect the earnings distribution through hours worked: part-time jobs reduce hours worked within a week, while fixed-term contracts reduce the number of weeks worked during the year as well as increase their volatility. We find weak evidence that fixed-term contracts represent a "stepping-stone" to permanent employment. Finally, we offer suggestive evidence that the labor market reforms contributed to the slowdown in labor productivity in Italy by delaying human capital accumulation (in the form of general and firm-specific experience) of recent cohorts

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573748
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 142
    Subjects: Labor Market; Structural Reforms; Inequality; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom; Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Inclusivity in the labor market
    Author: ElGanainy, Asmaa Adel; Ernst, Ekkehard; Merola, Rossana; Rogerson, Richard Donald; Schindler, Martin
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Labor earnings are the dominant income source for most individuals. Thus, an inclusive labor market is key for ensuring inclusive growth. In this paper we propose four principles that an inclusive labor market will embody: access, fairness,... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Labor earnings are the dominant income source for most individuals. Thus, an inclusive labor market is key for ensuring inclusive growth. In this paper we propose four principles that an inclusive labor market will embody: access, fairness, protection and voice. While measuring inclusivity presents challenges, we discuss how data can be used to shed light on the extent of inclusivity and document cross-country trends and stylized facts. We also discuss the role of policy in achieving an inclusive labor market, focusing on the need to rebalance growth; improve risk sharing; and fight discrimination. Several messages emerge. First, some policies entail a trade-off between the different dimensions of inclusivity. Second, it is important to view policies as a bundle, taking into account substitution and complementarities. Third, some policies are win-win, in the sense that they both increase inclusivity and improve overall efficiency

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573519
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 141
    Subjects: Inclusive Growth; Inclusive Labor Markets; Informal Economy; Labor Market Policies; Discrimination; Monopsony; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Employment effects of environmental policies
    evidence from firm-level data
    Author: Mohommad, Adil
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The employment impact of environmental policies is an important question for policy makers. We examine the effect of increasing the stringency of environmental policy across a broad set of policies on firms' labor demand, in a novel identification... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The employment impact of environmental policies is an important question for policy makers. We examine the effect of increasing the stringency of environmental policy across a broad set of policies on firms' labor demand, in a novel identification approach using Worldscope data from 31 countries on firm-level CO2 emissions. Drawing on evidence from as many as 5300 firms over 15 years and the OECD environmental policy stringency (EPS) index, it finds that high emission-intensity firms reduce labor demand upon impact as EPS is tightened, whereas low emission-intensity firms increase labor demand, indicating a reallocation of employment. Moreover, tightening EPS during economic contractions appears to have a positive effect on employment, other things equal. Quantifications exercises show modest positive net changes in employment for market-based policies, and modest negative net changes for non-market policies (mainly emission quantity regulations) and for the combined aggregate EPS. Within market-based policies, the percent decline in employment in high-emission firms (correspondingly the increase in low-emission firms) for a unit change in a policy index is smallest (largest) for trading schemes ('green' certificates, and 'white' certificates)-although stringency is not comparable across indices. Finally, the employment effects of EPS are not persistent

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573618
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 140
    Subjects: Environmental regulation; Employment; Employment; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom; Unemployment
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. How to gain the most from structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs
    Author: Andritzky, Jochen; Munkacsi, Zsuzsa; Wang, Ke
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs is designed to support structural reforms by countries borrowing from the IMF. Taking stock of program conditions and their implementation, this paper finds that conditionality focuses on fiscal,... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs is designed to support structural reforms by countries borrowing from the IMF. Taking stock of program conditions and their implementation, this paper finds that conditionality focuses on fiscal, monetary and financial issues-areas where IMF expertise is strong-and shies away from structural areas such as labor or product market reforms. Hence, tackling deep-rooted structural issues during IMF-supported programs often remained elusive. To ensure countries gain most from IMF conditionality, the paper outlines an evaluation matrix for prioritizing and designing structural reforms, and applies it to case studies

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513572697
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 139
    Subjects: IMF-supported programs; conditionality; structural reforms; energy reform; financial sector reform; governance reform; labor market reform; pension reform; product market reform; SOE reform; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. China's rebalancing and gender inequality
    Author: Brussevich, Mariya; Dabla-Norris, Era; Li, Bin
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and expansion of the service sector. Using household data, we provide evidence consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time. Model counterfactuals suggest that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573779
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 138
    Subjects: gender inequality; structural transformation; household data; labor force participation; Economics Of Gender; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Non-Labor Discrimination; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Determinants of and prospects for market access in frontier economies
    Author: Silva, Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da; Almeida, Luiza Antoun de; Singh, Diva
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries' (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors-country-specific macroeconomic... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    In recent years, we have observed an increase in low-income countries' (LICs) access to international capital markets, especially after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper investigates what factors-country-specific macroeconomic fundamentals and/or external variables-have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in our paper as 'frontier economies'. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in issuance by these economies as well as the reduction in their spreads over time. Our empirical study shows that both country-specific fundamentals (such as public debt, current account balance, level of reserves, quality of institutions) and external variables (such as US growth and the VIX index) play a role in explaining the increased amount of issuance and the decline in spreads of frontier economies' sovereign bonds. The impact of some of these variables on issuance appears to reflect a country's need to issue bonds for external financing ('the supply side' of bond issuance), while others appear to correlate more through their impact on investors' appetite for a country's debt ('the demand side'). In addition, the impact of country-specific variables can also be affected by external factors such as global risk appetite. Our analysis of key factors that have contributed to increased market access for frontier economies over the past decade provides important information to gauge the prospects for their continued market access, and for other LICs to join this group by tapping international markets for the first time

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573656
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 137
    Subjects: Sovereign bond issuance; Frontier markets; Market access; Bond spreads; Foreign Exchange; General Financial Markets; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Patterns in IMF growth forecast revisions
    a panel study at multiple horizons
    Author: Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Werner, Alejandro Mariano; Zamarripa, Rene
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative;... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573663
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 136
    Subjects: Economic forecasts; Forecast revisions; Growth forecasts; WEO; Diffusion Processes; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Technological Change; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The macroeconomic impact of social unrest
    Author: Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Pienknagura, Samuel; Ricci, Luca Antonio
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper explores the macroeconomic impact of social unrest, using a novel index based on news reports. The findings are threefold. First, unrest has an adverse effect on economic activity, with GDP remaining on average 0.2 percentage points below the pre-shock baseline six quarters after a one-standard deviation increase in the unrest index. This is driven by sharp contractions in manufacturing and services (sectoral dimension), and consumption (demand dimension). Second, unrest lowers confidence and raises uncertainty; however, its adverse effect on GDP can be mitigated by strong institutions and by a country's policy space. Third, an unrest "event", which is captured by a large change in the unrest index, is associated with a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event. Impacts differ by type of event: episodes motivated by socio-economic reasons result in sharper GDP contractions compared to those associated with politics/elections, and events triggered by a combination of both factors lead to sharpest contractions. Results are not driven by countries with adverse growth trajectories prior to unrest events or by fiscal consolidations, and are robust to instrumenting via regional unrest

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513582573
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 135
    Subjects: Social unrest; Economic activity; Growth; Institutions; Policy space; Fiscal Policy; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. License to spill
    how do we discuss spillovers in Article IV staff reports
    Author: Barkema, Jelle; Mircheva, Borislava; Mrkaic, Mico; Yang, Yuanchen
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper dives into the Fund's historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper dives into the Fund's historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573670
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 134
    Subjects: Spillovers; Surveillance; Article IV; Staff Reports; Externalities; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Avoid a fall or fly again
    turning points of state fragility
    Author: Akanbi, Olusegun A.; Georgiev, Nikolaj; Honda, Jiro; Mehta, Paulomi; Moriyama, Kenji; Primus, Keyra; Sy, Mouhamadou
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth decline from +2.5 percent to -2.5 percent). Also, strengthening government effectiveness together with increasing political inclusion and maintaining robust economic activity should help make exit from fragility more successful and sustainable. In the current environment (the COVID-19 crisis and its aftermath), the findings suggest the importance of providing well-directed fiscal stimulus with sufficient financing, (subject to appropriate governance safeguards and well-designed policies), and protecting critical socio-economic spending to keep vulnerable countries away from being caught in a fragility trap

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573687
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 133
    Subjects: Fragile and Conflict-Affected States; fragility trap; pivotal moments; Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. An empirical assessment of the exchange rate pass-through in Mozambique
    Author: Aisen, Ari; Manguinhane, Edson; Simione, Félix F.
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Determining the magnitude and speed of the exchange rate passthrough (ERPT) to inflation has been of paramount importance for policy-makers in developed and emerging economies. This paper estimates the exchange rate passthrough in Mozambique using econometric techniques on a sample spanning from 2001 to 2019. Results suggest that the ERPT is assymetric, sizable and fast, with 50 percent of the exchange rate variations passing through to prices in less than six months. Policy-makers should continue to pursue low and stable inflation and develop a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies for the ERPT to decline

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573694
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 132
    Subjects: Exchange rate; inflation; passthrough; Foreign Exchange; Inflation; Informal Economy; Price Level; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The direct employment impact of public investment
    Author: Moszoro, Marian
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure-electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that USD 1... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    We evaluate the direct employment effect of the public investment in key infrastructure-electricity, roads, schools and hospitals, and water and sanitation. Using rich firm-level panel data from 41 countries over 19 years, we estimate that USD 1 million of public spending in infrastructure create 3-7 jobs in advanced economies, 10-17 jobs in emerging market economies, and 16-30 jobs in low-income developing countries. As a comparison, USD 1 million public spending on R and D yields 5-11 jobs in R and D in OECD countries. Green investment and investment with a larger R and D component deliver higher employment effect. Overall, we estimate that one percent of global GDP in public investment can create more than seven million jobs worldwide through its direct employment effects alone

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573793
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 131
    Subjects: Crisis; Public Investment; Infrastructure; Stimulus; Employment; COVID; Recovery; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 20 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Who doesn't want to be vaccinated?
    determinants of vaccine hesitancy during COVID-19
    Author: Dabla-Norris, Era; Khan, Hibah; Lima, Frederico; Sollaci, Alexandre
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns. We use individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns. We use individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by YouGov and Imperial College London to empirically examine the determinants of vaccine hesitancy across 17 countries and over time. Vaccine demand depends on demographic features such as age and gender, but also on perceptions about the severity of COVID-19 and side effects of the vaccine, vaccine access, compliance with protective behaviors, overall trust in government, and how information is shared with peers. We then introduce vaccine hesitancy into an extended SIR model to assess its impact on pandemic dynamics. We find that hesitancy can increase COVID-19 infections and deaths significantly if it slows down vaccine rollouts, but has a smaller impact if all willing adults can be immunized rapidly

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573717
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 130
    Subjects: Coronavirus; Impfung; Infektionsschutz; Meinung; Welt; vaccine hesitancy; COVID-19; SIR model; Demographic Economics; Foreign Exchange; Health Behavior; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Macroeconomic impact of the Itaipú Treaty review for Paraguay
    Author: Che, Natasha
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    With the debt obligation of Itaipu Binational being completed paid off by 2023, the Annex C of the Treaty of Itaipu, which governs the operation and revenue distribution of the Itaipu Dam, is due for review and possible revisions. The implications... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    With the debt obligation of Itaipu Binational being completed paid off by 2023, the Annex C of the Treaty of Itaipu, which governs the operation and revenue distribution of the Itaipu Dam, is due for review and possible revisions. The implications for Paraguay's export revenues and fiscal position are potentially significant. The paper reviews the current energy distribution and sales arrangements of Itaipu and the potential implication of the Annex C revision for the future

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573755
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 129
    Subjects: Renewable Energy policy; Itaipú Binational; Natural Resource Management; Electric Utilities; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Trade; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The cost of future policy
    intertemporal public sector balance sheets in the G7
    Author: Koshima, Yugo; Harris, Jason; Tieman, Alexander F.; Sanctis, Alessandro de
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper compiles the Intertemporal Public Sector Balance Sheets for all G7 countries and examines their relationship with government borrowing costs. In 2018, all G7 countries have negative Intertemporal Net Financial Worth (INFW), falling short of their intertemporal budget constraint. A decomposition of the evolution of INFW shows that short-term fluctuations are mainly driven by fiscal policy changes, while in the long run demographic changes and health and pension obligations play a larger role. We find that on average a 10 percentage point of GDP increase in INFW reduces the (future) 10-1 year sovereign yield curve spread by 2.8 basis points. This results suggest that financial markets pay attention to governments' future policy obligations, in addition to its current assets and liabilities

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573335
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 128
    Subjects: Public Sector Balance Sheet; G7; Canada; France; Germany; Italy; Japan; UK; US; Fiscal Sustainability; Intertemporal Net Financial Worth; Fiscal Policy; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Public Administration; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Will COVID-19 have long-lasting effects on inequality?
    evidence from past pandemics
    Author: Furceri, Davide; Loungani, Prakash; Ostry, Jonathan David; Pizzuto, Pietro
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper provides evidence on the impact of major epidemics from the past two decades on income distribution. The pandemics in our sample, even though much smaller in scale than COVID-19, have led to increases in the Gini coefficient, raised the income share of higher-income deciles, and lowered the employment-to-population ratio for those with basic education compared to those with higher education. We provide some evidence that the distributional consequences from the current pandemic may be larger than those flowing from the historical pandemics in our sample, and larger than those following typical recessions and financial crises

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513582375
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 127
    Subjects: COVID-19; pandemics; inequality; Aggregate Factor Income Distribution; Foreign Exchange; Health Behavior; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Balance sheets and debt crises
    empirical regularities for modern cases of sovereign distress
    Author: Huertas Laverde, Gonzalo; Meyer Cirkel, Alexis
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Public and private sector balance sheets are an important component to any analysis of debt sustainability. A vulnerable and indebted private sector can become a sudden liability for the government; alternatively, resilient household and bank balance... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Public and private sector balance sheets are an important component to any analysis of debt sustainability. A vulnerable and indebted private sector can become a sudden liability for the government; alternatively, resilient household and bank balance sheets may reveal potential sources of funding for the sovereign during times of fiscal distress. In this paper, we document empirical regularities in the behavior of macroeconomic variables during debt crises, and show how both macroeconomic fundamentals and sectoral net worth can affect the likelihood of undergoing default

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513574011
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 125
    Subjects: sovereign debt restructuring; national balance sheets; default; net wealth; financial crisis; debt crisis; sovereign distress; fiscal stress; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Public Administration; Public Sector Accounting and Audits; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 58 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Impact of COVID-19
    nowcasting and big data to track economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Author: Buell, Brandon; Chen, Carissa; Chérif, Réda; Seo, Hyeon-Jae; Tang, Jiawen; Wendt, Nils
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513582498
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 124
    Subjects: COVID-19; Econometric modeling; Economic activity; GDP; Google Search Trends; Mobile payments; NO2; Nowcasting; Short-term forecasting; Classification Methods; Cluster Analysis; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. What determines social distancing?
    evidence from advanced and emerging market economies
    Author: Dabla-Norris, Era; Khan, Hibah; Lima, Frederico
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The health and economic consequences of COVID-19 are closely tied to individual compliance with recommended protective behaviors. We examine the determinants of this compliance using survey data from the COVID Behavior Tracker for 29 advanced and... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The health and economic consequences of COVID-19 are closely tied to individual compliance with recommended protective behaviors. We examine the determinants of this compliance using survey data from the COVID Behavior Tracker for 29 advanced and emerging market economies between March and December 2020. Social distancing behaviors vary significantly by age, gender, occupation, and individual beliefs about COVID-19. In addition, those who trust their government's response to COVID-19 are significantly more likely to adopt recommended behaviors and to self-isolate if advised, highlighting the need for well-coordinated actions on the health and economic fronts. We also find that mobility restrictions, such as stay-at-home orders, and mask mandates are associated with reduced social interactions and persistent increases in compliance. Together, these drivers account for over two-thirds of the regional differences in compliance, confirming their important role in increasing social distancing and containing the pandemic

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513582382
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 123
    Subjects: social distancing; COVID-19; trust in government; Foreign Exchange; Health Behavior; Health; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. The Morocco Policy Analysis model
    theoretical framework and policy scenarios
    Author: Achour, Aya; Bulíř, Aleš; Chafik, Omar; Remo, Adam
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The Morocco Policy Analysis model (MOPAM) was created in the Bank Al-Maghrib to simulate the impact of external developments, domestic macroeconomic policies, and structural reforms on key macroeconomic aggregates. We describe its structure and demonstrate its operation on two medium-term scenarios: (1) fiscal consolidation to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio and (2) the effects of the COVID-19 shock, including the endogenous fiscal and monetary policy response

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573328
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 122
    Subjects: Macroeconomic modeling; Morocco; fiscal stabilization; COVID-19 pandemic; Debt Management; Debt; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Austerity and elections
    Author: Alesina, Alberto; Ciminelli, Gabriele; Furceri, Davide; Saponaro, Giorgio
    Published: April 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Conventional wisdom holds that voters punish governments that implement fiscal austerity. Yet, most empirical studies, which rely on ex-post yearly austerity measures, do not find supportive evidence. This paper revisits the issue using action-based,... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Conventional wisdom holds that voters punish governments that implement fiscal austerity. Yet, most empirical studies, which rely on ex-post yearly austerity measures, do not find supportive evidence. This paper revisits the issue using action-based, real-time, ex-ante measures of fiscal austerity as well as a new database of changes in vote shares of incumbent parties. The analysis emphasizes the importance of the 'how'-whether austerity is done via tax hikes or expenditure cuts-and the 'who'-whether it is carried out by left- vs. right-leaning governments. Our main finding is that tax-based austerity carries large electoral costs, while the effect of expenditure-based consolidations depends on the political-leaning of the government. An austerity package worth 1% of GDP, carried out mostly through tax hikes, reduces the vote share of the leader's party by about 7%. In contrast, expenditure-based austerity is detrimental for left- but beneficial for right-leaning governments. We also find that the electoral cost of austerity-especially tax hikes-can be contained if it is implemented during good economic times

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513573724
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 121
    Subjects: Austerity; Ideology; Vote share; Tax hikes; Expenditure cuts; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenues; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen