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  1. Identification of systematic monetary policy
    Author: Hack, Lukas; Istrefi, Klodiana; Meier, Matthias
    Published: 17 March 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP17999
    Subjects: Systematic monetary policy; FOMC; rotation; government spending
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 91 Seiten)
  2. The origins of monetary policy disagreement
    the role of supply and demand shocks
    Author: Madeira, Carlos; Madeira, João; Monteiro, Paulo Santos
    Published: August 2023
    Publisher:  Bank for International Settlements, Monetary and Economic Department, [Basel]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: BIS working papers ; no 1118
    Subjects: FOMC; committees; monetary policy; structural shocks; dissent
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. The price of macroeconomic uncertainty
    evidence from daily options
    Author: Londono, Juan M.; Samadi, Mehrdad
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Edition: This version: June 2023
    Series: International finance discussion papers ; number 1376 (June 2023)
    Subjects: Variance Risk; Uncertainty; Risk Premium; Macroeconomic Releases; FOMC; Inflation; Tail Risk
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Perceptions about monetary policy
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Published: 20 December 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP17758
    Subjects: FOMC; monetary policy rule; survey forecasts; beliefs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Perceptions about monetary policy
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2023, 31 (October 2023)
    Subjects: FOMC; monetary policy rule; survey forecasts; beliefs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Fiscal policy
    ex ante and ex post
    Author: Croushore, Dean Darrell; Van Norden, Simon
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Dep., Philadelphia, Pa.

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Department ; 14,22
    Subjects: fiscal policy; deficits; forecasting; FOMC; Greenbook
    Scope: Online-Ressource (52 S.), graph. Darst.
  7. Fiscal forecasts at the FOMC
    evidence from the Greenbooks
    Author: Croushore, Dean Darrell; Van Norden, Simon
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations, Montréal

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Scientific series / CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations ; 2016s-17
    Subjects: fiscal policy; deficits; forecasting; FOMC; Greenbook
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
    Notes:

    FOMC = Federal Open Market Committee
  8. Fiscal surprises at the FOMC
    Author: Croushore, Dean Darrell; Van Norden, Simon
    Published: June 2017
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; no. 17, 13
    Subjects: fiscal policy; deficits; forecasting; FOMC; Greenbook
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 57 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Fiscal surprises at the FOMC
    Author: Croushore, Dean Darrell; Van Norden, Simon
    Published: April 2017
    Publisher:  CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations, Montréal

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Scientific series / CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations ; 2017s-09
    Subjects: fiscal policy; deficits; forecasting; FOMC; Greenbook
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors
    the Federal Reserve's approach
    Author: Reifschneider, David; Tulip, Peter
    Published: February 24, 2017
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2017, 020
    Subjects: FOMC; Fan Charts; Forecasting; Uncertainty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Central Bank sentiment and policy expectations
    Author: Hubert, Paul; Labondance, Fabien
    Published: Septembre 2016
    Publisher:  OFCE, [Paris]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Working paper / OFCE ; 2016, 29
    Subjects: animal spirits; Optimism; Confidence; Central Bank communication; Interest-rate expectations; ECB; FOMC
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Central bank sentiment and policy expectations
    Author: Hubert, Paul; Labondance, Fabien
    Published: February 2017
    Publisher:  Bank of England, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Staff working paper / Bank of England ; no. 648
    Subjects: Animal spirits; optimism; confidence; FOMC; interest rate expectations; central bank communication; ECB; aggregate effects
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Disagreement inside the FOMC
    new insights from tone analysis
    Author: Bennani, Hamza; Romelli, Davide
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, Dublin

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: TEP working paper ; no. 21, 10 (September 2021)
    Subjects: Central banks; Monetary Policy Committees; FOMC
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Swanson, Eric T.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the... more

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    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the "Fed response to news" channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/251765
    Edition: Conference draft
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 165 (2022)
    Subjects: FOMC; policy rule; monetary transmission; SVAR; external instruments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 70 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Swanson, Eric T.
    Published: March 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the... more

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    High-frequency changes in interest rates around FOMC announcements are an important tool for identifying the effects of monetary policy on asset prices and the macroeconomy. However, some recent studies have questioned both the exogeneity and the relevance of these monetary policy surprises as instruments, especially for estimating the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks. For example, monetary policy surprises are correlated with macroeconomic and financial data that is publicly available prior to the FOMC announcement. We address these concerns in two ways: First, we expand the set of monetary policy announcements to include speeches by the Fed Chair, which essentially doubles the number and importance of announcements in our dataset. Second, we explain the predictability of the monetary policy surprises in terms of the "Fed response to news" channel of Bauer and Swanson (2021) and account for it by orthogonalizing the surprises with respect to macroeconomic and financial data. Our subsequent reassessment of the effects of monetary policy yields two key results: First, estimates of the high-frequency effects on financial markets are largely unchanged. Second, estimates of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy are substantially larger and more significant than what most previous empirical studies have found.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/260772
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9642 (2022)
    Subjects: FOMC; policy rule; monetary transmission; SVAR; external instruments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. A reassessment of monetary policy surprises and high-frequency identification
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Swanson, Eric T.
    Published: 17 March 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP17116
    Subjects: FOMC; Policy rule; Monetary Transmission; SVAR; External Instruments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Perceptions about monetary policy
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Published: 06 October 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP17574
    Subjects: FOMC; monetary policy rule; survey forecasts; beliefs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Perceptions about monetary policy
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and... more

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    We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low during easings. Forecasters update their perceptions about the policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that forecasters have imperfect information about the rule. The perceived rule impacts asset prices crucial for monetary policy transmission, driving how interest rates respond to macroeconomic news and explaining term premia in long-term interest rates.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268225
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 176 (2022)
    Subjects: FOMC; monetary policy rule; survey forecasts; beliefs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Perceptions about monetary policy
    Author: Bauer, Michael D.; Pflueger, Carolin E.; Sunderam, Adi
    Published: December 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and... more

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    We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions is time-varying and cyclical: high during tightening episodes but low during easings. Forecasters update their perceptions about the policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that forecasters have imperfect information about the rule. The perceived rule impacts asset prices crucial for monetary policy transmission, driving how interest rates respond to macroeconomic news and explaining term premia in long-term interest rates.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/271826
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10182 (2022)
    Subjects: FOMC; monetary policy rule; survey forecasts; beliefs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. How does the Fed adjust its securities holdings and who is affected?
    Author: Ihrig, Jane; Mize, Lawrence; Weinbach, Gretchen C.
    Published: September 22, 2017
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

    The Federal Open Market Committee indicated in its September 2017 post-meeting statement that it will initiate in October a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce its securities holdings. This action will put in place a policy of... more

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    The Federal Open Market Committee indicated in its September 2017 post-meeting statement that it will initiate in October a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce its securities holdings. This action will put in place a policy of reinvesting and redeeming portions of the principal payments received by the Federal Reserve from its holdings of Treasury and agency securities. How are these adjustments to the Federal Reserve's securities holdings transacted and who is affected? This paper provides a primer regarding how the Federal Reserve accounts for these securities transactions. It also illustrates the numerous ways that the Federal Reserve's actions can play out across other sectors of the economy, including those that engage directly with the Federal Reserve and those that are involved indirectly as funds change hands

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2017, 099
    FEDS Working Paper ; No. 2017-099
    Subjects: FOMC; Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve System; Balance sheet management; Balance sheet policy; Monetary policy normalization; Securities redemption; Securities reinvestment
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions
    evidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee
    Author: Ehrmann, Michael; Tietz, Robin; Visser, Bauke
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Whether Federal Reserve Bank presidents have the right to vote on the U.S. monetary policy committee depends on a mechanical, yearly rotation scheme. Rotation is without exclusion: also nonvoting presidents attend and participate in the meetings of... more

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    Whether Federal Reserve Bank presidents have the right to vote on the U.S. monetary policy committee depends on a mechanical, yearly rotation scheme. Rotation is without exclusion: also nonvoting presidents attend and participate in the meetings of the committee. Does voting status change behavior? We find that the data go against the hypothesis that without the voting right, presidents use their public speeches and their meeting interventions to compensate for the loss of formal influence; rather, they support the hypothesis that the voting right makes presidents more involved. We also find that speeches move financial markets less in years that presidents vote. We argue that these discounts are consistent with their communication behavior.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/237783
    Series: Array ; TI 2021, 050
    Subjects: voting right rotation; monetary policy committee; central bank communication; FOMC; financial market response
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Voting right rotation, behavior of committee members and financial market reactions
    vidence from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee
    Author: Ehrmann, Michael; Tietz, Robin; Visser, Bauke
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Whether Federal Reserve Bank presidents have the right to vote on the U.S. monetary policy committee depends on a mechanical, yearly rotation scheme. Rotation is without exclusion: also nonvoting presidents attend and participate in the meetings of... more

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    Whether Federal Reserve Bank presidents have the right to vote on the U.S. monetary policy committee depends on a mechanical, yearly rotation scheme. Rotation is without exclusion: also nonvoting presidents attend and participate in the meetings of the committee. Does voting status change behavior? We find that the data go against the hypothesis that without the voting right, presidents use their public speeches and their meeting interventions to compensate for the loss of formal influence; rather, they support the hypothesis that the voting right makes presidents more involved. We also find that speeches move financial markets less in years that presidents vote. We argue that these discounts are consistent with their communication behavior.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289947558
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237708
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2569 (June 2021)
    Subjects: voting right rotation; monetary policy committee; central bank communication; FOMC; financial market response
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 56 Seiten)
  23. Risk & returns around FOMC press conferences
    a novel perspective from computer vision
    Author: Marchal, Alexis
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

    I propose a new tool to characterize the resolution of uncertainty around FOMC press conferences. It relies on the construction of a measure capturing the level of discussion complexity between the Fed Chair and reporters during the Q&A sessions. I... more

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    I propose a new tool to characterize the resolution of uncertainty around FOMC press conferences. It relies on the construction of a measure capturing the level of discussion complexity between the Fed Chair and reporters during the Q&A sessions. I show that complex discussions are associated with higher equity returns and a drop in realized volatility. The method creates an attention score by quantifying how much the Chair needs to rely on reading internal documents to be able to answer a question. This is accomplished by building a novel dataset of video images of the press conferences and leveraging recent deep learning algorithms from computer vision. This alternative data provides new information on nonverbal communication that cannot be extracted from the widely analyzed FOMC transcripts. This paper can be seen as a proof of concept that certain videos contain valuable information for the study of financial markets

     
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    Series: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 21, 18
    Subjects: FOMC; Machine learning; Computer vision; Alternative data; Video data; Asset pricing; Equity premium
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Identification of systematic monetary policy
    Author: Hack, Lukas; Istrefi, Klodiana; Meier, Matthias
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose a novel identification design to estimate the causal effects of systematic monetary policy on the propagation of macroeconomic shocks. The design combines (i) a time-varying measure of systematic monetary policy based on the historical... more

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    We propose a novel identification design to estimate the causal effects of systematic monetary policy on the propagation of macroeconomic shocks. The design combines (i) a time-varying measure of systematic monetary policy based on the historical composition of hawks and doves in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with (ii) an instrument that leverages the mechanical FOMC rotation of voting rights. We apply our design to study the effects of government spending shocks. We find fiscal multipliers between two and three when the FOMC is dovish and below zero when it is hawkish. Narrative evidence from historical FOMC records corroborates our findings.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289962162
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2851
    Subjects: monetary policy; FOMC; rotation; government spending
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Regional dissent
    local economic conditions influence FOMC votes
    Author: Bobrov, Anton; Kamdar, Rupal; Ulate, Mauricio
    Published: February 2024
    Publisher:  CAEPR, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, [Bloomington, IN]

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    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 522
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: CAEPR working paper ; #2024, 002
    Subjects: Monetary Policy; FOMC; Regional Economic Conditions; Taylor Rule
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen