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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 28.

  1. An empirical test of a two-factor mortgage valuation model
    how much do house prices matter?
    Published: 2003
    Publisher:  Div. of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2003-42
    Subjects: Hypothek; Asset-Backed Securities; Insolvenz; Finanzanalyse; Immobilienpreis; Schätzung; USA; Mortgage-backed securities; Prepayment of debts; Default
    Scope: 40 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  2. Estimating probabilities of default
    Published: July 2004
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    "We conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD), using several analytical approaches from large-sample theory and bootstrapped small-sample confidence intervals. We do so for two different... more

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    "We conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD), using several analytical approaches from large-sample theory and bootstrapped small-sample confidence intervals. We do so for two different PD estimation methods--cohort and duration (intensity)--using twenty-two years of credit ratings data. We find that the bootstrapped intervals for the duration-based estimates are surprisingly tight when compared with the more commonly used (asymptotic) Wald interval. We find that even with these relatively tight confidence intervals, it is impossible to distinguish notch-level PDs for investment grade ratings--for example, a PDAA- from a PDA+. However, once the speculative grade barrier is crossed, we are able to distinguish quite cleanly notch-level estimated default probabilities. Conditioning on the state of the business cycle helps; it is easier to distinguish adjacent PDs in recessions than in expansions"--Federal Reserve Bank of New York web site

     

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    hdl: 10419/60699
    Edition: [Elektronische Ressource]
    Series: Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; 190
    Subjects: Insolvenz; Kreditwürdigkeit; Schätztheorie; Default
    Scope: Online Ressource, 34 p, text, ill
    Notes:

    Title from PDF file as viewed on 1/12/2005

    Includes bibliographical references

  3. Sovereign debt restructuring
    the need for a new approach
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  IDB, Inter-American Development Bank, [Washington, DC]

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    Series: Discussion paper / IDB, Inter-American Development Bank ; no IDB-DP-1022
    Subjects: Latin America; Caribbean; LAC; Debt; Default; Debt restructuring; Common framework
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. A global shock with idiosyncratic pains: state-dependent debt limits for LATAM during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Banco de la Republica Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia

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    Series: Borradores de economía ; no. 1175 (2021)
    Subjects: State-Dependent Debt Limits; Latin America; Fiscal Space; Fiscal Sustainability; Default; Public Debt; COVID-19; Global Methods
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Uncertainty premia, sovereign default risk, and state-contingent debt
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model a la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the... more

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    We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model a la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the commonly used threshold state-contingent bond structure (e.g., the GDP-linked bond issued by Argentina in 2005), the model with robustness generates ambiguity premia in bond spreads that can explain most of what the literature has labeled as novelty premium. While the government would be better off with this bond when facing rational expectations lenders, this additional source of premia leads to welfare losses when facing robust lenders. Finally, we characterize the optimal design of the state-contingent bond and show how it varies with the level of robustness. Our findings rationalize the little use of these instruments in practice and shed light on their optimal design

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9781513572635
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 76
    Subjects: Sovereign debt; default; state-contingent debt instruments; robust control; ambiguity premia; Ambiguity Premia; Default; Robust Control; Sovereign Debt; State-Contingent Debt Instruments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Sovereign debt standstills
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default... more

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    As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of 'debt overhang' and thus the opportunity for a 'voluntary debt exchange': complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors' losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513564531
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 290
    Subjects: Debt relief; Standstill; Haircuts; COVID-19; Default; Debt Overhang; Voluntary Debt Exchange
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. On the benefits of repaying
    Published: September 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513596136
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 233
    Subjects: Sovereign Debt; Default; Reputation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Do student loan borrowers opportunistically default?
    evidence from bankruptcy reform
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Dep., Philadelphia, Pa.

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    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Department ; 15,17
    Subjects: Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Reform; BAPCPA; Default; Student Loans
    Scope: Online-Ressource (41, [5] S.), graph. Darst.
  9. Recourse and residential mortgages
    the case of Nevada
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Dep., Philadelphia, Pa.

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    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Department ; 15,02
    Subjects: Deficiency judgment; Default; Foreclosure; Approval; Interest rate; Nevada
    Scope: Online-Ressource (28 S.), graph. Darst.
  10. Improving sovereign debt restructurings
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond

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    Series: Working paper series / Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond ; WP 22, 06
    Subjects: Crises; GDP-indexed Debt; Distribution of Creditor Losses; Default; Sovereign Debt; Maturity; Restructuring; Country Risk; International Monetary Fund
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Long-term debt sustainability in emerging market economies
    a counterfactual analysis
    Author: Panizza, Ugo
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department, Geneva, Switzerland

    The 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda recognized the need for policies aimed at maintaining longterm debt sustainability. This paper describes a set of commonly used definitions of debt sustainability and shows that none of them focuses on long-term... more

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    The 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda recognized the need for policies aimed at maintaining longterm debt sustainability. This paper describes a set of commonly used definitions of debt sustainability and shows that none of them focuses on long-term debt sustainability. It then discusses concept and several practical and conceptual difficulties linked to assessing solvency in developing and emerging countries. Next, the paper asks whether countries default because they borrow too much, or because investors think that they will default and this expectation becomes self-fulfilling. To answer this question, the paper uses a sample of 17 emerging market countries over 1970-2020 to build counterfactual debt levels under the assumption that these countries had continuous access to the international capital market without paying any premium over US Treasuries. The exercise shows that most debt crises are not driven by solvency issues.

     

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    hdl: 10419/266121
    Series: Working paper series / Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department ; no. HEIDWP2022, 07
    Subjects: Public debt; Default; Liquidity crises
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Do countries default in bad times?
    the role of alternative detrending techniques
    Author: Panizza, Ugo
    Published: April 2022
    Publisher:  Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department, Geneva, Switzerland

    Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of "good times" defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is... more

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    Quantitative models of sovereign debt predict that countries should default during deep recessions. However, empirical research on sovereign debt has found a surprisingly large share of "good times" defaults (i.e., defaults that happen when GDP is above trend). Existing evidence also indicates that, on average, defaults happen when output is close to potential. This paper reassesses the empirical evidence and shows that the detrending technique proposed by Hamilton (2018) yields results that are closer to the predictions of standard quantitative models of sovereign debt.

     

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    hdl: 10419/266120
    Series: Working paper series / Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department ; no. HEIDWP2022, 06
    Subjects: Sovereign Debt; Default; Business Cycles
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 13 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. On the benefits of repaying
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Department of Economics, Bologna, Italy

    This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research... more

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    This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia do to so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.

     

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    Series: Quaderni - working paper DSE / Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Department of Economics ; no 1163
    Subjects: Sovereign Debt; Default; Reputation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. On the benefits of repaying
    Published: September 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513596136
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 233
    Subjects: Sovereign Debt; Default; Reputation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. On the benefits of repaying
    Published: September 2021
    Publisher:  Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department, Geneva, Switzerland

    This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research... more

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    This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show that the case of Colombia is more complex than what it is commonly assumed. Although Colombia had to re-profile its debts, high-level political support from the US allowed Colombia to do so outside the standard framework of an IMF program. Our counterfactual analysis shows that in the short to medium run, Colombia benefited from avoiding an explicit default. Specifically, we find that GDP growth in the 1980s was higher than that of a counterfactual in which Colombia behaved like its neighboring countries. We also test whether Colombia's behavior in the 1980s led to long-term reputational benefits. Using an event study based on a large sudden stop, we find no evidence for such long-lasting reputational gains.

     

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    Series: Working paper series / Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, International Economics Department ; no. HEIDWP2021, 18
    Subjects: Sovereign Debt; Default; Reputation
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Uncertainty premia, sovereign default risk, and state-contingent debt
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model a la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the... more

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    We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model a la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the commonly used threshold state-contingent bond structure (e.g., the GDP-linked bond issued by Argentina in 2005), the model with robustness generates ambiguity premia in bond spreads that can explain most of what the literature has labeled as novelty premium. While the government would be better off with this bond when facing rational expectations lenders, this additional source of premia leads to welfare losses when facing robust lenders. Finally, we characterize the optimal design of the state-contingent bond and show how it varies with the level of robustness. Our findings rationalize the little use of these instruments in practice and shed light on their optimal design

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    ISBN: 9781513572635
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 76
    Subjects: Sovereign debt; default; state-contingent debt instruments; robust control; ambiguity premia; Ambiguity Premia; Default; Robust Control; Sovereign Debt; State-Contingent Debt Instruments
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. A deep learning approach to estimate forward default intensities
    Published: July 21, 2020
    Publisher:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

    This paper proposes a machine learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities. Default probabilities are computed using artificial neural networks to estimate the intensities of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes governing default... more

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    This paper proposes a machine learning approach to estimate physical forward default intensities. Default probabilities are computed using artificial neural networks to estimate the intensities of the inhomogeneous Poisson processes governing default process. The major contribution to previous literature is to allow the estimation of non-linear forward intensities by using neural networks instead of classical maximum likelihood estimation. The model specification allows an easy replication of previous literature using linear assumption and shows the improvement that can be achieved

     

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    Edition: Preliminary draft
    Series: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 20, 79
    Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper ; No. 20-79
    Subjects: Bankruptcy; Credit Risk; Default; Machine Learning; Neural Networks; Doubly Stochastic; Forward Poisson Intensities
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Financial globalization
    effects on banks' information acquisition and credit risk
    Published: 2021. 2
    Publisher:  Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea

    English Abstract: Financial liberalization accelerates global banks’ entry into new markets where host countries hope to spur investment and economic growth. However, banks sometimes retreat from their global ambitions and exit these new markets.... more

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    English Abstract: Financial liberalization accelerates global banks’ entry into new markets where host countries hope to spur investment and economic growth. However, banks sometimes retreat from their global ambitions and exit these new markets. This study demonstrates how difficulties of foreign banks in new markets may emerge due to disadvantages in the ability to assess credit quality compared to that of established domestic banks. We present a duopoly model where two banks conduct investigations in the search of qualified loan borrowers. The model assumes that the domestic bank has a cost advantage in evaluating a borrower’s credit quality compared to the competing foreign bank. Despite the cost heterogeneity, an equilibrium exists in which two such banks coexist in the market. Specifically, the information cost advantaged bank orchestrates a cream skimming strategy which entails lower-price commitments of loan products and higher investigation levels to screen and find low-risk borrowers. In contrast, the information cost disadvantaged bank chooses a bottom fishing strategy which consists of higher-priced loan offers with lower investigation levels. This results in high acceptance rates of high-risk borrowers in the foreign bank’s loan profile and correspondingly, higher default rates. We analyze the results to derive implications for development policy

     

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    Series: BOK working paper ; no. 2021, 3
    Subjects: Banking; Duopoly; Cream Skimming; Default; Entry/Exit
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  19. Sovereign debt standstills
    Published: December 2020
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default... more

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    As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of 'debt overhang' and thus the opportunity for a 'voluntary debt exchange': complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors' losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513564531
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/20, 290
    Subjects: Debt relief; Standstill; Haircuts; COVID-19; Default; Debt Overhang; Voluntary Debt Exchange
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Optimal taxation with endogenous default under incomplete markets
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, [Washington, DC]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: International finance discussion papers ; number 1297 (August 2020)
    Subjects: Optimal Taxation; Government Debt; Incomplete Markets; Default
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Second-chance offers and buyer reputation
    theory and evidence on auctions with default
    Published: February 2020
    Publisher:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    Winning bidders in online auctions frequently fail to complete the transaction. Because enforcing bids usually is too costly, auction platforms often allow sellers to make a "secondchance" offer to the second highest bidder, to buy at the bid price... more

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    Winning bidders in online auctions frequently fail to complete the transaction. Because enforcing bids usually is too costly, auction platforms often allow sellers to make a "secondchance" offer to the second highest bidder, to buy at the bid price of this bidder, and let sellers leave negative feedback on buyers who fail to pay. We show theoretically that, all else equal, the availability of second-chance offers reduces amounts bid in auctions where there is a probability that a bidder defaults. Nevertheless, we show that it is not optimal for a seller to exclude a buyer who is likely to default. In addition, buyer reputation systems create a strategic effect that rewards bidders who have a reputation for defaulting, counter to the idea of creating a deterrent against such behavior. Actual bidding in experimental auctions support these predictions and provide insights on their practical relevance.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224641
    Series: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 126
    Subjects: Auctions; Default; Reputation; Second-Chance O ers
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Debt burden of job loss in a nordic welfare state
    Published: 1.2.2024
    Publisher:  Taloustieto Oy, Helsinki

    The paper investigates the impact of involuntary job loss on severe debt problems in Finland, where up to 50% of income may be subject to wage garnishment for 25 years. We use linked employer-employee data combined with unique administrative records... more

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    The paper investigates the impact of involuntary job loss on severe debt problems in Finland, where up to 50% of income may be subject to wage garnishment for 25 years. We use linked employer-employee data combined with unique administrative records covering debt enforcements from 2007 to 2018. Our event study analysis uncovers a robust and persistent impact of job loss, characterized by plant closures and mass layoffs, on debt-related challenges. Specifically, displaced workers have a 5% higher likelihood of enforced debts in the year of displacement compared to the control group. This effect increases, peaking at 16% four years post-displacement and maintaining a substantial level of roughly 10% nine years afterwards. Effects are particularly large for unpaid taxes, penal orders and fines, while job loss demonstrates only a modest impact on unpaid social or healthcare payments and alimonies. Moreover, these effects are more profound among males, less educated, and individuals already burdened with excessive debt, such as mortgages, prior to displacement.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/290564
    Series: ETLA working papers ; 115
    Subjects: Default; Debt enforcement; Involuntary job loss; Employer-employee data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Impact of soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, [Hong Kong]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: HKIMR working paper ; 2023, no. 12 (August 2023)
    Subjects: Credit risk; Default; Hard information; Lending; Mortgage; Pricing; Prediction; Soft information; Yield spreads
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Large public expenditure shocks in a Ramsey taxation model with default
    Published: dezembro 2023
    Publisher:  UFMG/Cedeplar, Belo Horizonte

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    Series: Texto para discussão / UFMG, Cedeplar ; no 665
    Subjects: Optimal taxation; General equilibrium; Default; Public expenditure shocks; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. An ergodic theory of sovereign default
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  UC3M, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, [Getafe (Spain)]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10016/36164
    Series: Array ; 2022, 15
    Subjects: Default; Private External Debt; Ergodicity; Stability
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen