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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 26.

  1. Sentimental recovery
    Author: Pazarbasi, Altan; Schneider, Paul; Vilkov, Grigory
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  Swiss Finance Institute, Geneva

    We investigate the market-compatible degree of agent heterogeneity by identifying and analyzing the full range of conditional beliefs consistent with observed asset prices and good-deal bounds. Our methodology neither makes assumptions on underlying... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    We investigate the market-compatible degree of agent heterogeneity by identifying and analyzing the full range of conditional beliefs consistent with observed asset prices and good-deal bounds. Our methodology neither makes assumptions on underlying processes nor does it use survey data. It can be used in any arbitrage-free market. We apply it to S&P500 and VIX derivatives, both jointly and separately. Recovered dispersion of beliefs crucially depends on the degree of market incompleteness and maximally allowed Sharpe ratios; it is related to trading activity and measures of risk in financial markets, as well as professional macroeconomic survey dispersion

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Edition: This version: November 29, 2019
    Series: Research paper series / Swiss Finance Institute ; no 19, 57
    Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper ; No. 19-57
    Other subjects: Array
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Predictability concentrates in bad times
    and so does disagreement
    Author: Souza, Thiago de Oliveira
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  University of Southern Denmark, Odense

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Discussion papers on business and economics ; no. 2019, 8
    Subjects: Predictability; bad times; efficient market hypothesis; disagreement; rational expectations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten)
  3. Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations
    a compositional data approach
    Author: Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander; Kenny, Geoff
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has... more

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    We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap approach based on the KLIC and an approach which involves multiple testing for differences of individual parts of the density. In addition, the test is computaionally much faster than the KLIC-based one, which relies on simulations, and allows for comparisons across multiple groups. Using density expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show the usefulness of the test in detecting possible changes in density expectations over time and across different types of forecasters.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289959872
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278367
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2791 (February 2023)
    Subjects: compositional data; density forecasts; survey forecasts; disagreement
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Asymmetric Information, Disagreement, and the Valuation of Debt and Equity
    Author: Banerjee, Snehal; Breon-Drish, Bradyn M.; Smith, Kevin
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  SSRN, [S.l.]

    We study the prices of a firm's debt and equity in a market where investors have private information and may exhibit differences of opinion. We show how debt and equity valuations, and the impact of public information and distress risk on these... more

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    We study the prices of a firm's debt and equity in a market where investors have private information and may exhibit differences of opinion. We show how debt and equity valuations, and the impact of public information and distress risk on these valuations, depend upon disagreement and the intensity of liquidity trading. Moreover, debt and equity prices exhibit drift and reversals in response to news, the strength of which depend upon the firm's leverage. Finally, the firm's capital structure can influence its valuation, and the optimal capital structure depends on the relative amount of liquidity trade in debt versus equity

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper ; No. 4278165
    Subjects: capital structure; rational expectations; difference of opinions; disagreement; liquidity trading; information quality
    Other subjects: Array
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (54 p)
    Notes:

    Nach Informationen von SSRN wurde die ursprüngliche Fassung des Dokuments November 15, 2022 erstellt
  5. Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
    Author: Gambetti, Luca; Korobilis, Dimitris; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, [Waterloo, Ontario]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper series / Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis ; wp 23, 01
    Subjects: uncertainty; information frictions; disagreement; Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR); sign restrictions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
    Author: Gambetti, Luca; Korobilis, Dimitris; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  [Adam Smith Business School], [Glasgow]

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Working paper series / University of Glasgow, Adam Smith Business School ; paper no. 2023, 04 (February 2023)
    Subjects: uncertainty; information frictions; disagreement; Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR); sign restrictions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations
    a compositional data approach
    Author: Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander; Kenny, Geoff
    Published: January 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has... more

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    We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap approach based on the KLIC and an approach which involves multiple testing for differences of individual parts of the density. In addition, the test is computationally much faster than the KLIC-based one, which relies on simulations, and allows for comparisons across multiple groups. Using density expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show the usefulness of the test in detecting possible changes in density expectations over time and across different types of forecasters.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/271900
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10256 (2023)
    Subjects: compositional data; density forecasts; survey forecasts; disagreement
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Imagining the future
    memory, simulation and beliefs
    Author: Bordalo, Pedro; Burro, Giovanni; Coffman, Katherine B.; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  IGIER, Università Bocconi, Milano, Italy

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Edition: This version: June, 2023
    Series: Working paper series / IGIER ; n. 701
    Subjects: Similarity; selective recall; disagreement
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 91 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
    Author: Gambetti, Luca; Korobilis, Dimitris; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
    Published: February 2023
    Publisher:  [London School of Economics and Political Science], [London, UK]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: [CFM discussion paper series] ; [CFM-DP 2023, 04]
    Subjects: uncertainty; information frictions; disagreement; Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR); sign restrictions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten)
  10. The formation of inflation expectations
    micro-data evidence from Japan
    Author: Kikuchi, Junichi; Nakazono, Yoshiyuki
    Published: March 2022
    Publisher:  Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Tokyo, Japan

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: ESRI discussion paper series ; no. 367
    Subjects: disagreement; expectations; forecast bias; forecast revision; inflation; rational inattention; rounding; sticky information
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Agreed and disagreed uncertainty
    Author: Gambetti, Luca; Korobilis, Dimitris; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
    Published: May 2023
    Publisher:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The... more

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    When agents' information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and reduces agents' disagreement (agreed uncertainty). The latter increases both uncertainty and disagreement (disagreed uncertainty). We use these implications to identify empirically the effects of agreed and disagreed uncertainty shocks, based on a novel measure of consumer disagreement derived from survey expectations. Disagreed uncertainty has no discernible economic effects and is benign for economic activity, but agreed uncertainty exerts significant depressing effects on a broad spectrum of macroeconomic indicators.

     
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    Media type: Book
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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279212
    Series: CESifo working papers ; 10463 (2023)
    Subjects: uncertainty; information frictions; disagreement; Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR); sign restrictions
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Demokratischer Streit
    eine Phänomenologie des Politischen
    Author: Herrmann, Steffen K
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Nomos, Baden-Baden

    Ist die demokratische Gesellschaft am Ende? Der Glaube an die Möglichkeit kollektiver Selbstregierung scheint heute angesichts populistischer und regressiver Politiken erloschen. Als Antwort auf diese Krise gilt es, Demokratie neu zu denken. Dafür... more

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    Ist die demokratische Gesellschaft am Ende? Der Glaube an die Möglichkeit kollektiver Selbstregierung scheint heute angesichts populistischer und regressiver Politiken erloschen. Als Antwort auf diese Krise gilt es, Demokratie neu zu denken. Dafür entwickelt der Autor im Ausgang von Hannah Arendt ein System des demokratischen Streits als Streit um den Demos, das Kratos und die Doxa. Ausgehend von diesen drei Grundformen der politischen Auseinandersetzung bezieht die Studie mit radikalen, republikanischen und rhetorischen Demokratietheorien Stellung und zeigt Möglichkeiten einer phänomenologischen Kritik auf, mit denen sich tiefe Meinungsverschiedenheiten demokratisch austragen lassen

     
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  13. Vulnérabilité Créative
    Le sens de la différence chez Gilles Deleuze et Marcel Proust
    Author: de Carvalho, Luiz
    Published: 2020
    Publisher:  Éditions universitaires européennes, Saarbrücken

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: French
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9786139556403; 6139556406
    Other identifier:
    9786139556403
    Edition: 1. Auflage
    Other subjects: (Produktform)Electronic book text; Marcel Proust; Vulnérabilité Créative; Le sens de la différence; Gilles Deleuze; disagreement; (VLB-WN)1560: Sprachwissenschaft, Literaturwissenschaft
    Scope: Online-Ressource, 104 Seiten
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  14. Disagreement Strategies in Egyptian and American Political Debates
    A Sociopragmatic Study
    Author: Elnaggar, Alshaimaa
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, Saarbrücken

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    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9786200258038; 6200258031
    Other identifier:
    9786200258038
    Edition: 1. Auflage
    Other subjects: (Produktform)Electronic book text; disagreement; sociopragmatics; Political debates; Im/Politeness; Face threat; Softening strategies; Unmitigated strategies; (VLB-WN)1564: Englische Sprachwissenschaft, Literaturwissenschaft
    Scope: Online-Ressource, 316 Seiten
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  15. Local information and firm expectations about aggregates
    Author: Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena; Wohlrabe, Klaus
    Published: July 2022
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry... more

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    Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that firms resort to local information when forming expectations about aggregate growth. Firms extrapolate from the economic situation in their county, industry growth and their individual business situation. The effect is particularly strong for small firms and explains part of the high expectation dispersion across firms. Furthermore, we show that growth expectations are correlated with employment and investment decisions of firms, highlighting that differences in expectations do indeed seem to lead to differences in actual firm decisions. Our results confirm predictions of theoretical models with rational inattention.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263756
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 9826 (2022)
    Subjects: GDP expectations; expectation heterogeneity; disagreement; rational inattention; ifo business tendency survey
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Disagreement about inflation expectations
    Author: Ballantyne, Alexander; Gillitzer, Christian; Jacobs, David; Rankin, Ewan
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  Reserve Bank of Australia, [Sydney]

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    Series: Research discussion paper / Reserve Bank of Australia ; RDP 2016, 02
    Subjects: inflation expectations; disagreement; dispersion; information rigidity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Household expectations and dissent among policymakers
    Author: Grebe, Moritz; Tillmann, Peter
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided... more

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    This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments concerning the vote in the Council, e.g. unanimity and dissent, and are asked to submit probabilistic in ation expectations. The results show that the vote is informative. Households revise their subjective in ation forecast after receiving information about the vote. Dissenting votes cause a wider individual distribution of future in ation. Hence, dissent increases households' uncertainty about inflation. This effect is statistically significant once we allow for the interaction between the treatments and individual characteristics of respondents. The results are robust with respect to alternative measures of forecast uncertainty and hold for different model specifications. Our findings suggest that providing information about dissenting votes without additional information about the nature of dissent is detrimental to coordinating household expectations.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266024
    Series: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2022, 26
    Subjects: central bank communication; disagreement; ination expectations; randomized controlled trial; survey
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 43 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Household expectations and dissent among policymakers
    Author: Grebe, Moritz; Tillmann, Peter
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main

    This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided... more

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    This paper studies the impact of dissent in the ECB's Governing Council on uncertainty surrounding households' inflation expectations. We conduct a randomized controlled trial using the Bundesbank Online Panel Households. Participants are provided with alternative information treatments concerning the vote in the Council, e.g. unanimity and dissent, and are asked to submit probabilistic inflation expectations. The results show that the vote is informative. Households revise their subjective inflation forecast after receiving information about the vote. Dissenting votes cause a wider individual distribution of future inflation. Hence, dissent increases households' uncertainty about inflation. This effect is statistically significant once we allow for the interaction between the treatments and individual characteristics of respondents. The results are robust with respect to alternative measures of forecast uncertainty and hold for different model specifications. Our findings suggest that providing information about dissenting votes without additional information about the nature of dissent is detrimental to coordinating household expectations.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/261485
    Series: Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; no. 169 (2022)
    Subjects: central bank communication; disagreement; inflation expectations; randomized controlled trial; survey
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Testing for differences in survey-based density expectations
    a compositional data approach
    Author: Dovern, Jonas; Glas, Alexander; Kenny, Geoff
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Humboldt-Universität, Berlin

    We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has... more

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    We propose to treat survey-based density expectations as compositional data when testing either for heterogeneity in density forecasts across different groups of agents or for changes over time. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed test has more power relative to both a bootstrap approach based on the KLIC and an approach which involves multiple testing for differences of individual parts of the density. In addition, the test is computaionally much faster than the KLIC-based one, which relies on simulations, and allows for comparisons across multiple groups. Using density expectations from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters and the U.S. Survey of Consumer Expectations, we show the usefulness of the test in detecting possible changes in density expectations over time and across different types of forecasters.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/268640
    Series: Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 ; no 39 (2023, January)
    Subjects: compositional data; density forecasts; survey forecasts; disagreement
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Financial markets and dissent in the ECB's governing council
    Author: Tillmann, Peter
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Philipps-University Marburg, School of Business and Economics, Marburg

    The decision-making process in the ECB's Governing Council remains opaque as the ECB, in contrast to many other central banks, does not publish the votes for or against a policy proposal. In this paper, we construct an index of dissent based on the... more

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    The decision-making process in the ECB's Governing Council remains opaque as the ECB, in contrast to many other central banks, does not publish the votes for or against a policy proposal. In this paper, we construct an index of dissent based on the ECB presidents' answers to journalists' questions during the press conference following each meeting. This narrative account of dissent suggests that dissenting votes are cast frequently. We show that the non-forecastable component of dissent weakens the response of long-term interest rates to policy surprises and thus affects the monetary transmission mechanism. The yield response is significantly stronger under unanimity compared to dissent. This finding is robust to several alternative specifications.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234853
    Series: Joint discussion paper series in economics ; no. 2020, 48
    Subjects: event studies; monetary policy transmission; monetary policy committee; disagreement; term structure
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Conditional macroeconomic forecasts
    disagreement, revisions and forecast errors
    Author: Glas, Alexander; Heinisch, Katja
    Published: [07. Juni 2021]
    Publisher:  Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, Halle (Saale), Germany

    Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we analyse the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the heterogeneity, updating and ex-post... more

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    Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt / Zentrale
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    Using data from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters, we analyse the role of ex-ante conditioning variables for macroeconomic forecasts. In particular, we test to which extent the heterogeneity, updating and ex-post performance of predictions for inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are related to assumptions about future oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates and wage growth. Our findings indicate that inflation forecasts are closely associated with oil price expectations, whereas expected interest rates are used primarily to predict output growth and unemployment. Expectations about exchange rates and wage growth also matter for macroeconomic forecasts, albeit less so than oil prices and interest rates. We show that survey participants can considerably improve forecast accuracy for macroeconomic outcomes by reducing prediction errors for external conditions. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the expectation formation process of experts.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/234959
    Series: IWH discussion papers ; 2021, no. 7 (June 2021)
    Subjects: assumptions; disagreement; forecast accuracy; forecast revisions; survey forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (III, 51 Seiten, 3,63 MB), Diagramme
  22. With new eyes
    the recognition of novelty and novel ideas = Door een nieuwe bril : de herkenning van nieuwigheden en nieuwe ideeen
    Author: Bavato, Davide
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Erasmus Institute of Management (ERIM), Rotterdam

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789058925893
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 1765/134264
    Series: ERIM PhD series in research in management ; EPS-2020-500-LIS
    Subjects: Creativity; novelty; new ideas; idea evaluation; idea selection; recognition; disagreement
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Aus Copyright-Gründen enthält das Dokument anfangs nur Teile der Hochschulschrift. Das Datum der Bereitstellung des vollständigen Textes ist nicht bekannt

    Dissertation, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 2020
  23. Fundamental disagreement about monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates
    Author: Cao, Shuo; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, Emanuel
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY

    Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the... more

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    Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds. Longer-horizon short rate disagreement co-moves with term premiums. We estimate an affine term structure model in which investors hold heterogeneous beliefs about the long-run level of rates. Our model fits U.S. Treasury yields and the short rate paths predicted by different groups of professional forecasters very well. About one-third of the variation in term premiums is driven by short rate disagreement.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/241127
    Edition: Revised August 2021
    Series: Staff report / Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; no. 934 (August 2021)
    Subjects: disagreement; heterogeneous beliefs; noisy information; speculation; survey forecasts; yield curve; term premium
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs and banks
    implications of CBDC
    Author: Muñoz, Manuel A.; Soons, Oscar
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  European Systemic Risk Board, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    The bulk of cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in times of high economic uncertainty and only a fraction of the population choosing to hoard cash. We develop a Diamond and Dybvig model with public money as... more

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    The bulk of cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in times of high economic uncertainty and only a fraction of the population choosing to hoard cash. We develop a Diamond and Dybvig model with public money as a store of value and heterogeneous beliefs about bank stability that accounts for this evidence. Only consumers who are sufficiently pessimistic about bank stability hold cash. The introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a store of value lowers the storage cost of public money and induces partial bank disintermediation, which is nevertheless mitigated by an increase in relative maturity transformation. This has heterogeneous welfare consequences across the population. While cash holders always benefit by switching to CBDC, each of all other consumers may be better off or not depending on the probability of a bank run, her (and all others') belief about such probability and the degree of technological superiority of CBDC.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789294723581
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/283547
    Series: Working paper series / ESRB, European Systemic Risk Board, European System of Financial Supervision ; no 146
    Subjects: Cash hoarding; central bank digital currency; disagreement; uncertainty shocks; flight-to-safety; bank stability; welfare
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Cognitive ability and perceived disagreement in learning
    Author: Evdokimov, Piotr; Garfagnini, Umberto
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190, [München]

    Do agents believe to be agreeing more with others in the long-run? This paper designs an experiment to study how cognitive abilities affect actual and perceived disagreement in a standard sequential belief updating task with public signals. We... more

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    Do agents believe to be agreeing more with others in the long-run? This paper designs an experiment to study how cognitive abilities affect actual and perceived disagreement in a standard sequential belief updating task with public signals. We document a persistent gap in the perception of disagreement as a function of cognitive ability. Higher cognitive ability is associated with less perceived disagreement, although the average subject underestimates the extent of actual disagreement regardless of cognitive ability. Learning about the state of the world has little effect on the evolution of perceived disagreement when controlling for cognitive ability. Providing subjects with information about their partner's cognitive ability affects perceived disagreement only when the partner is less cognitively able.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/282073
    Series: Discussion paper / Rationality & Competition, CRC TRR 190 ; no. 381 (February 06, 2023)
    Subjects: Cognitive ability; disagreement; learning
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen