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  1. Anchoring long-term var forecasts based on survey data and state-space models
    Author: Areosa, Marta Baltar Moreira; Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Banco Central do Brasil, Brasília, DF, Brazil

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    Series: Working paper series / Banco Central do Brasil ; 574 (February 2023)
    Subjects: Inflation; Expectations; Survey Data; Shifting Endpoint; Kalman Filter
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. A comprehensive empirical evaluation of biases in expectation formation
    Author: Eva, Kenneth; Winkler, Fabian
    Published: June 14, 2023
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2023, 042
    Subjects: Behavioral Bias; Forecasting; Out-of-sample prediction; Rational expectations; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Forceful or persistent
    wow the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations
    Author: Hoffmann, Mathias; Mönch, Emanuel; Pavlova, Lora; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    We study how households adjust their medium-term inflation expectations under the new ECB strategy. We find that survey respondents make little difference between the previous strategy of targeting inflation rates close to but below 2% and the new... more

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    We study how households adjust their medium-term inflation expectations under the new ECB strategy. We find that survey respondents make little difference between the previous strategy of targeting inflation rates close to but below 2% and the new strategy with a symmetric 2% target. Yet, participants informed that the ECB might tolerate rates exceeding the target for some time, expect somewhat higher medium-term inflation. Respondents asked to assume inflation currently running below target place a significantly higher probability on outcomes above 2% in the medium term. Participants do not expect an undershooting when inflation is currently running above target.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783957299581
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279574
    Series: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2023, 27
    Subjects: Monetary Policy Strategy; Household Inflation Expectations; Randomized Control Trial; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Real-time price discovery in stock, bond and foreign exchange markets
    Contributor: Andersen, Torben (Mitwirkender); Bollerslev, Tim (Mitwirkender); Diebold, Francis X. (Mitwirkender); Vega, Clara (Mitwirkender)
    Published: 2005
    Publisher:  Univ.-Bibliothek Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt am Main

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  5. Big data versus a survey
    Author: Whitaker, Stephan
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio

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    Language: English
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland ; 1440
    Subjects: Big Data; Survey Data; Household Debt
    Scope: Online-Ressource (40 S.), graph. Darst.
  6. Household saving behaviour and credit constraints in the euro area
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  bcl, Luxembourg

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    Series: Cahier d'études / Banque Centrale du Luxembourg ; 93
    Subjects: Household Finance and Consumption; Life Cycle Saving; Survey Data
    Scope: Online-Ressource (32 S.), graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Zsfassung in dt. Sprache
  7. The zero lower bound and endogenous uncertainty
    Author: Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; Throckmorton, Nathaniel A.
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Dep., Dallas, Tex.

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    Series: Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Research Department ; 1405
    Subjects: Monetary Policy; Uncertainty; Economic Activity; Zero Lower Bound; Survey Data
    Scope: Online-Ressource (18 S.), graph. Darst.
  8. Would households understand average inflation targeting?
    Author: Hoffmann, Mathias; Pavlova, Lora; Mönch, Emanuel; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main

    Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve’s flexible average... more

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    Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve’s flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation expectations significantly increase for the treated individuals. When provided with additional information about near-term inflation, individuals update their expected inflation path in line with the central banks’ intentions. This is particularly true for individuals with high trust in the ECB. We assess the economic significance of our findings by comparing two model economies under different monetary policy strategies, calibrated to match the difference in medium-term inflation expectations from our survey results. Under AIT, inflation is substantially less volatile and the frequency of hitting the lower bound on interest rates is considerably reduced.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9783957298850
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/260398
    Series: Discussion paper / Deutsche Bundesbank ; no 2022, 17
    Subjects: Monetary Policy Strategy; Household Inflation Expectations; Randomized Control Trial; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Personality-augmented MPC
    linking survey and transaction data to explain MPC heterogeneity by Big Five personality traits
    Author: Nemeczek, Fabian; Radermacher, Jan
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, [Frankfurt am Main]

    We investigate the link between Big Five personality traits and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for users of a German financial account aggregator app. We use 1,700 survey responses and transaction data of 56,000 app users to assess whether... more

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    We investigate the link between Big Five personality traits and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for users of a German financial account aggregator app. We use 1,700 survey responses and transaction data of 56,000 app users to assess whether Big Five personality traits help explain MPC heterogeneity. We find that extraversion corresponds to an increase in consumption whereas agreeableness and neuroticism correspond to a decrease in consumption. We test this with trust and risk preferences and find that risk indicates more explanatory power in consumption response than the Big Five. Our findings help policy makers target individuals more efficiently.

     
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    hdl: 10419/253381
    Series: SAFE working paper ; no. 348 (April 2022)
    Subjects: Marginal Propensity to Consume; Big Five Personality; Survey Data; Transaction Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 67 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Working in the shadow
    survey techniques for measuring and explaining undeclared work
    Author: Burgstaller, Lilith; Feld, Lars P.; Pfeil, Katharina
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Walter Eucken Institut, [Freiburg i. Br.]

    Little is known about the size and determinants of undeclared work. While approaches to measure the shadow economy have been extensively discussed, conventional surveys dominate research on undeclared work. We review and extend this literature by... more

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    Little is known about the size and determinants of undeclared work. While approaches to measure the shadow economy have been extensively discussed, conventional surveys dominate research on undeclared work. We review and extend this literature by first referring to the most recent survey data on undeclared work in Germany and, second, by discussing four experimental survey techniques as well as their few applications to questions of undeclared work. We argue that the randomized response technique and list experiments would validate and improve prevalence estimates of undeclared work, whereas careful design of information provision experiments and discrete choice experiments would fill the gap on determinants that causally affect decisions to supply and demand undeclared work.

     
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    hdl: 10419/261337
    Series: Freiburg discussionpapers on constitutional economics ; 22, 7
    Subjects: Undeclared Work; Experimental Survey; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten)
  11. Who likes it more?
    using response times to elicit group preferences in surveys
    Author: Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Garagnani, Michele
    Published: December 2022
    Publisher:  University of Zurich, Department of Economics, Zurich

    Surveys and opinion polls are essential instruments to elicit societal preferences and uncover differences between socioeconomic or demographic groups. However, survey data is noisy, and survey bias is ubiquitous, limiting the reliability and... more

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    Surveys and opinion polls are essential instruments to elicit societal preferences and uncover differences between socioeconomic or demographic groups. However, survey data is noisy, and survey bias is ubiquitous, limiting the reliability and usefulness of standard analyses. We provide a new method that uncovers group preferences and unambiguously ranks the relative strength of preference between groups of agents, leveraging the information contained in response times. The method delivers a nonparametric criterion to determine whether a group (defined, e.g., by gender, age cohort, socioeconomic status, political orientation, etc.) prefers an option over its alternative, and whether it does so more strongly than another group, without any assumptions on the underlying noise. We demonstrate the practical value of this method by studying preferences over important socioeconomic topics in a representative sample of the U.K. population. We find that the new method often provides results when tests based on choice frequencies are inconclusive, and also identifies cases where tests are significant but inferences on preferences are unwarranted.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267216
    Edition: This version: December 2022
    Series: Working paper series / University of Zurich, Department of Economics ; no. 422
    Subjects: Survey Data; Revealed Preference; Response Times; Stochastic Choice
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. P-hacking, data type and data-sharing policy
    Author: Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Neisser, Carina
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  ECONtribute, Bonn

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between p-hacking and datasharing policies for published articles. We collect 38,876 test statistics from 1,106 articles published in leading economic journals between 2002-2020. While a data-sharing policy... more

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    In this paper, we examine the relationship between p-hacking and datasharing policies for published articles. We collect 38,876 test statistics from 1,106 articles published in leading economic journals between 2002-2020. While a data-sharing policy increases the provision of research data to the community, we find a well-estimated null effect that requiring authors to share their data at the time of publication does not alter the presence of p-hacking. Similarly, articles that use hard-to-access administrative data or third-party surveys, as compared to those that use easier-to-access (e.g., own-collected) data are not different in their p-hacking extent. Voluntary provision of data by authors on their homepages offers no evidence of reduced p-hacking.

     
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    hdl: 10419/268033
    Series: ECONtribute discussion paper ; no. 200
    Subjects: p-Hacking; Publication Bias; Data and Code Availability; Data Sharing Policy; Administrative Data; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 85 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Eine Analyse des Studienerfolgs im Masterstudium auf der Basis von Umfrage- und administrativen Prüfungsdaten
    ein Vergleich von fünf Masterstudiengängen am Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin
    Author: Rendtel, Ulrich; Lee, Yeonjoo; Gerks, Hartmut
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Freie Universität Berlin, [Berlin]

    Die Verknüpfung von administrativen Prüfungsdaten mit Umfragedaten zum sozialen Hintergrund der Studierenden, ihrer Studienfinanzierung, ihrer Motivation für den gewählten Studiengang sowie den Noten für die Zulassung zum Studiengang vermeidet die... more

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    Die Verknüpfung von administrativen Prüfungsdaten mit Umfragedaten zum sozialen Hintergrund der Studierenden, ihrer Studienfinanzierung, ihrer Motivation für den gewählten Studiengang sowie den Noten für die Zulassung zum Studiengang vermeidet die Schwachstellen üblicher studentischer Befragungen mit hohem Nonresponse und Erinnerungsfehlern. Dieser Ansatz wird hier zum Vergleich von fünf Masterstudiengängen am FB Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin benutzt. Die Studierenden wurden auf der jeweiligen Auftaktveranstaltung ihrer Studiengänge befragt und über die ersten 6 Fachsemester hinsichtlich des Erwerbs von Studienpunkten, dem Abschluss ihres Masterstudiums sowie den dabei erzielten Noten begleitet. Aufgrund der Koppelung mit den administrativen Daten der gesamten Kohorte konnte ein Erfolgsbias der teilnahmebereiten Studierenden festgestellt werden, der aber durch eine geeignete Gewichtung über die Responserate gut beherrschbar ist. Wir vergleichen die Studiengänge in verschiedenen Phasen: Studieneingangsphase, Erreichen der Regelstudienzeit und Abschluss bis zum 6 Fachsemester. Weiterhin wird der Einfluss von Hintergrundmerkmalen auf die erreichte Note beim Studienabschluss untersucht. In der Studieneingangsphase ergeben sich deutliche Unterschiede zwischen den Studiengängen. Konditioniert man allerdings auf den Studienerfolg im ersten Semester, so verschwinden diese Unterschiede für die zweite Studienphase und den Abschluss des Studiums. Überraschend ist der geringe Einfluss der Bachelor-Note auf den Studienerfolg und die erzielte Master-Note. Die Ergebnisse zeigen die Möglichkeit auf, einen möglichen Studienabbruch schon relativ sicher anhand der erzielten Studienpunkte in der Studieneingangsphase zu erkennen. The merge of administrative examination results and survey data on the social background of students, their financial situation, their motivation to study the selected subject and their grade for the admission avoids the weaknesses of typical student surveys with high nonresponse and recall errors. We use this approach for a comparison of five master programs at the economic department of the Freie Universit ̈at Berlin. The students were interviewed at the kick-off meeting of their master program. They were followed over the first 6 semesters with respect to the earning of credit points, the finalizing of the master program and the received final grades. Because of the linkage with the administrative data of the entire cohort we noticed a response bias towards more successful students. However, this bias can be treated conveniently by the response rate. We compare the master programs in different phases: the starting phase, the reaching of the planned number of semesters to complete the program and the finalizing of the program until the 6. semester. Furthermore we study the impact of the background variables on the final grades. The starting phase reveals clear differences between the master programs. However, if we condition on the study success in the starting period differences vanish in the later phases and for the gained final grade. The impact of the bachelor score on the study performance and the gained final score is surprisingly low. Our results indicate the possibility to predict relatively sure a breaking off of the study on the basis of the gained credit points in the starting phase of the program.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: German
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    hdl: 10419/268485
    Series: Array ; 2023, 1
    Subjects: Administative Prüfungsdaten; Umfragedaten; Studienerfolg; Master Programme; Studiengang Monitoring; Administative Examination Data; Survey Data; Study Success; Master Programs; Study Program Monitoring
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Human frictions in the transmission of economic policy
    Author: D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael
    Published: 9 September 2021
    Publisher:  Bank of Finland, Helsinki

    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and... more

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    Many consumers below the top of the distribution of a representative population by cognitive abilities barely react to monetary and fiscal policies that aim to stimulate consumption and borrowing, even when they are financially unconstrained and despite substantial debt capacity. Differences in income, formal education levels, economic expectations, and a large set of registry-based demographics do not explain these facts. Heterogeneous cognitive abilities thus act as human frictions in the transmission of economic policies that operate through the household sector and might imply redistribution from low- to high-cognitiveability agents. We conclude by discussing how our findings inform the microfoundation of behavioral macroeconomic theory.

     
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    ISBN: 9789523233850
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    hdl: 10419/249592
    Edition: This version: September 2021
    Series: Bank of Finland research discussion papers ; 2021, 12
    Subjects: Cognition; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Heterogeneous Agents; Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Beliefs; Redistribution; Inequality; Survey Data; Household Finance
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. State-dependent or time-dependent pricing?
    new evidence from a monthly firm-level survey : 1980-2017
    Author: Dixon, Huw; Grimme, Christian
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom

    We examine the relative importance of time and state dependence in the price-setting decisions of firms using a monthly panel of German firms over the period 1980–2017. We propose a refined version of time dependence by introducing different hazard... more

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    We examine the relative importance of time and state dependence in the price-setting decisions of firms using a monthly panel of German firms over the period 1980–2017. We propose a refined version of time dependence by introducing different hazard functions for price increases and decreases. We find three sets of results. First, time dependence is much more important for price setting than what the previous literature has found. Second, price decreases can be well explained by time dependence alone. Price increases are best predicted by the interaction of time-dependent and firm-specific state factors. Third, time dependence for price increases and decreases look completely different from each other. Our empirical results suggest that theoretical models should integrate both time and state dependence rather than developing the approaches separately.

     
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    hdl: 10419/250326
    Series: Cardiff economics working papers ; no. E2021, 1
    Subjects: Survey Data; Price Setting; Extensive Margin; State-Dependent Pricing; Time-Dependent Pricing
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Drawing a line comparing the estimation of top incomes between tax data and household survey data
    Author: Yonzan, Nishant; Milanović, Branko; Morelli, Salvatore; Gornick, Janet C.
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  CSEF, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance, Department of Economics, University of Naples, Naples, Italy

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    Series: Working paper / CSEF, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance ; no. 600
    Subjects: Income; Inequality; Survey Data; Tax Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Micro level data for macro models
    the distributional effects of monetary policy
    Author: Corrado, Luisa; Fantozzi, Daniela
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London

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    Series: NIESR discussion paper ; no. 529 (18 May 2021)
    Subjects: Income Inequality; Monetary Policy; Local Projections; Survey Data; High-Frequency Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 59 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Revisiting positional choice
    survey evidence from Germany
    Author: Behringer, Jan; Endres, Lukas; Treeck, Till van
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  ifso, Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Duisburg, Germany

    We conduct a survey to test for concerns about relative standing based on a large sample of the German population. Our survey approach asks respondents to choose between two hypothetical states of the world, in which they receive either a larger... more

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    We conduct a survey to test for concerns about relative standing based on a large sample of the German population. Our survey approach asks respondents to choose between two hypothetical states of the world, in which they receive either a larger relative endowment or a larger absolute endowment that leaves them worse off in comparison to others. We receive the highest shares of positional answers for household income and one's children's IQ. We show that respondents with a larger social comparison orientation are significantly more likely to indicate positional preferences. This finding is robust despite some limited evidence that unintended alternative explanations based on feelings of material deprivation, feeling overworked, respondents' work ethic and environmental concerns affect respondents' choice.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    hdl: 10419/285374
    Series: ifso working paper ; no. 33 (2024)
    Subjects: Social Comparisons; Positionality; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Muddying the waters
    how grade distributions change when university exams go online
    Author: Brutti, Zelda; Montolio, Daniel
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, Facultat d’Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Format: Online
    Edition: Version April 2024
    Series: Array ; 2024, 03
    Subjects: Higher Education; Online Education; Online Assessment; Administrative Data; Survey Data; Covid
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Discovering tax decentralization
    does it impact marginal willingness to pay taxes?
    Author: Durán, José María; Esteller-Moré, Alejandro; Salvadori, Luca
    Published: [2024]
    Publisher:  Institut d’Economia de Barcelona, Facultat d’Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: Version April 2024
    Series: Array ; 2024, 04
    Subjects: Tax Decentralization; Fiscal Knowledge; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Household disagreement about expected inflation
    Author: Fofana, Salomé; Patzelt, Paula; Reis, Ricardo
    Published: 30 March 2024
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Location:
    Bibliotheks-und Informationssystem der Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg (BIS)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18956
    Subjects: Inflation Expectations; Dispersion of Beliefs; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Household disagreement about expected inflation
    Author: Fofana, Salomé; Patzelt, Paula; Reis, Ricardo
    Published: March
    Publisher:  [London School of Economics and Political Science], [London, UK]

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: [CFM discussion paper series] ; [CFM-DP 2024, 18]
    Subjects: Inflation Expectations; Dispersion of Beliefs; Survey Data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen