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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 31.

  1. Narratives of inequality
    postcolonial literary economics
    Author: Kennedy, Melissa
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

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  2. How well do economists forecast recessions?
    Author: An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other... more

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    We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of forecasts

     
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  3. How well do economists forecast recessions?
    Author: An, Zidong; Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other... more

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    We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus' (1987) view that behavioral factors-the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news-play a role in the evolution of forecasts

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781484344873
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/18, 39
    Subjects: Bias; Efficiency; Recession Year; Recession; WP
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Initial output losses from the Covid-19 pandemic
    robust determinants
    Author: Furceri, Davide; Ganslmeier, Michael; Ostry, Jonathan David; Yang, Naihan
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least... more

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    While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513567013
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 18
    Subjects: COVID-19; Recession; Resilience; WALS; BMA; Model-Averaging
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Is acquisition-FDI during an economic crisis detrimental for domestic innovation?
    Author: García-Vega, María; Gupta, Apoorva; Kneller, Richard
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Düsseldorf, Germany

    We study how acquisition-FDI during economic crises affects R&D investments of target firms as compared to acquisitions made during periods of economic growth. Using a panel of Spanish firms, we find that foreign multinationals cherry-pick the best... more

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    We study how acquisition-FDI during economic crises affects R&D investments of target firms as compared to acquisitions made during periods of economic growth. Using a panel of Spanish firms, we find that foreign multinationals cherry-pick the best domestic firms, irrespective of timing of acquisition. Using matching and difference-in-difference regressions, we find that firms acquired during crises experience smaller declines in R&D than those acquired during periods of growth. Our results are consistent with the opportunity cost theory of R&D over the business cycle, as we also find that crisis-acquired firms prioritize new product creation over achieving economies of scale

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Discussion paper / Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) ; no 403
    Subjects: Foreign Acquisition; Recession; Innovation; Business cycle
    Scope: 54 Seiten, Diagramme
  6. Forecasting U.S. recessions and economic activity
    Author: Kotchoni, Rachidi; Stevanovic, Dalibor
    Published: August 2016
    Publisher:  CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations, Montréal

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Scientific series / CIRANO, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations ; 2016s-36
    Subjects: Augmented Autoregressive Model; Conditional Forecasts; Economic Activity; Inverse Mills Ratio; Probit; Recession
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (47 Seiten), graph. Darst.
  7. The Great Recession and a missing generation of exporters
    Author: Lincoln, William F.; McCallum, Andrew H.; Siemer, Michael
    Published: October 3, 2017
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

    The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    The collapse of international trade surrounding the Great Recession has garnered significant attention. This paper studies firm entry and exit in foreign markets and their role in the post-recession recovery of U.S. exports using confidential microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau. We find that incumbent exporters account for the vast majority of the decline in export volumes during the crisis. The recession also induced a missing generation of exporters, with large increases in exits and a substantial decline in entries into foreign markets. New exporters during these years tended to have larger export volumes, however, compensating for the decline in the number of exporting firms. Thus, while entry and exit were important for determining the variety of U.S. goods that were exported, they were less important for the trajectory of aggregate foreign sales

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2017, 108
    FEDS Working Paper ; No. 2017-108
    Subjects: Business cycles; Entry; Exit; Exports; Financial crisis; Firm dynamics; Great recession; Recession
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Forecasting U.S. recessions and economic activity
    Author: Kotchoni, Rachidi; Stevanovic, Dalibor
    Published: [2016]
    Publisher:  Université de Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense, Nanterre

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    VS 334 (2016,40)
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Working paper / EconomiX ; 2016, 40
    Subjects: Augmented Autoregressive Model; Conditional Forecasts; Economic Activity; Inverse Mills Ratio; Probit; Recession
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Survival strategies under sanctions
    firm-level evidence from Iran
    Author: Cheratian, Iman; Goltabar, Saleh; Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Economic Research Forum (ERF), Dokki, Giza, Egypt

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    Series: ERF working papers series ; no. 1569 (August 2022)
    Subjects: Crisis; Recession; Sanction; Survival Strategies; Firm; Iran
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  10. The information in the yield spread for the recession in the case of Pakistan
    Author: Hina, Hafsa; Ahsan, Henna; Afzal, Hania
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: PIDE working papers ; no. 2022, 11
    Subjects: Yield Spread; Recession; ARDL; Pakistan
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 21 Seiten)
  11. Creative destruction during crises
    an opportunity for a cleaner energy mix
    Author: Deb, Pragyan; Furceri, Davide; Ostry, Jonathan David; Tawk, Nour
    Published: 18 December 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP16819
    Subjects: Covid-19 lockdowns; Recession; energy use; energy mix; renewables
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think
    Author: Mei, Ziwei; Phillips, Peter C. B.; Shi, Zhentao
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Cowles Foundation discussion paper ; no. 2348 (September 2022)
    Subjects: Boosting; Business cycle; Machine learning; Macroeconomics; Recession
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Early labor market origins of long-term mental health and its intergenerational correlation
    Author: De Vera, Micole; García-Brazales, Javier; Lin, Jiayi
    Published: September 2022
    Publisher:  Centro de estudios monetarios y financieros, Madrid, Spain

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / CEMFI ; 2208
    Subjects: Recession; mental health; well-being; intergenerational correlation; Australia
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Firm entry and exit during recessions
    Author: Ayres, João; Raveendranathan, Gajendran
    Published: June 2021
    Publisher:  Inter-American Development Bank, Department of Research and Chief Economist, [Washington, DC]

    We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the... more

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    We analyze shocks to productivity, collateral constraint (credit shock), firm operation, and labor disutility in a model of firm dynamics with entry and exit. Shocks to firm operation and labor disutility capture COVID-19 lockdowns. Compared to the productivity shock, the credit and the lockdown shocks generate larger changes in firm entry and exit. The credit shock accounts for lower entry, higher exit, and concentration of exit among young firms during the Great Recession. The lockdown shocks predict a large fall in entry and rise in exit followed by a sharp rebound. In both recessions, changes in entry and exit account for 10-20 percent of the fall in output and hours. Finally, we discuss how the modeling of potential entrants matters for the quantitative results.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237511
    Series: IDB working paper series ; no IDB-WP-1254
    Subjects: Firm dynamics; Recession; COVID-19; General equilibrium model; Credit shock; Lockdown
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Inequality in life and death
    Author: Eichenbaum, Martin S.; Rebelo, Sérgio; Trabandt, Mathias
    Published: 16 July 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP16366
    Subjects: Epidemic; Inequality; Recession
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Flight to safety
    how economic downturns affect talent flows to startups
    Author: Bernstein, Shai; Townsend, Richard R.; Xu, Ting
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  Harvard Business School, [Boston, MA]

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / Harvard Business School ; 21, 045
    Subjects: Startup Labor Market; Flight to Safety; COVID-19; Recession; Human Capital
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten)
  17. Container trade and the U.S. recovery
    Author: Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing
    Published: 19 June 2021
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP16277
    Subjects: merchandise trade; container; shipping; Manufacturing; Consumption; COVID-19,Supply Chain; Recession; recovery; Globalization
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Measuring income and wealth effects on private-label demand with matched administrative data
    Author: Brancatelli, Calogero; Fritzsche, Adrian; Inderst, Roman; Otter, Thomas
    Published: 17 January 2022
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP16918
    Subjects: Private-label demand; income and wealth effects; Recession; Consumer demand
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. The downward glide of the natural rate of unemployment during cyclical recoveries could explain flat phillips curves
    Author: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Published: 21 October 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Series: Array ; DP18544
    Subjects: usiness Cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession; Monetary Policy; NaturalRate of Unemployment; Inflation Anchor; NAIRU
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Is acquisition-FDI during an economic crisis detrimental for domestic innovation?
    Author: García-Vega, María; Gupta, Apoorva; Kneller, Richard
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE), Düsseldorf, Germany

    We study how acquisition-FDI during economic crises affects R&D investments of target firms as compared to acquisitions made during periods of economic growth. Using a panel of Spanish firms, we find that foreign multinationals cherry-pick the best... more

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    We study how acquisition-FDI during economic crises affects R&D investments of target firms as compared to acquisitions made during periods of economic growth. Using a panel of Spanish firms, we find that foreign multinationals cherry-pick the best domestic firms, irrespective of timing of acquisition. Using matching and difference-in-difference regressions, we find that firms acquired during crises experience smaller declines in R&D than those acquired during periods of growth. Our results are consistent with the opportunity cost theory of R&D over the business cycle, as we also find that crisis-acquired firms prioritize new product creation over achieving economies of scale.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9783863044022
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273474
    Series: Discussion paper / Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) ; no 403
    Subjects: Foreign Acquisition; Recession; Innovation; Business cycle
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 60 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Initial output losses from the Covid-19 pandemic
    robust determinants
    Author: Furceri, Davide; Ganslmeier, Michael; Ostry, Jonathan David; Yang, Naihan
    Published: January 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least... more

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    Orient-Institut Beirut
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    Universitätsbibliothek Braunschweig
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
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    While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus

     
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  22. The unemployed with jobs and without jobs
    Author: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2021, 17 (July 2021)
    Subjects: Business cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession; Layoffs; Recall
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The inexorable recoveries of US unemployment
    Author: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, [San Francisco, CA]

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    Series: Working papers series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ; 2021, 20 (August 2021)
    Subjects: Business cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 17 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Banks and financial markets in microfounded models of money
    Author: Buggenum, Hugo van
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Tilburg University, Tilburg

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Dissertation
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789056686536
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    Series: [Dissertation series] / [Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University] ; [nr. 652 (2021)]
    Subjects: Zero Lower Bound; Normal Interesr Rate; Financial Markets; Credit; Private Money; Payment Instruments; Money Creation; Optimal Monetary Policy; Savings; Assets; Recession; Zero Lower Bound; Economics; Deposits; Household
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 73 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Dissertation, Tilburg University, 2021
  25. Pricing art
    returns, trust, and crises
    Author: Li, Yuexin
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Tilburg University, Tilburg

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    Media type: Dissertation
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    ISBN: 9789056686581
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    Series: [Dissertation series] / [Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University] ; [nr. 657 (2021)]
    Subjects: Art Market; Art; Economics of Arts; Art Investment; Energy Shock; Long-Term Performance; Artist; Price Risk; Risk and Return; Traits; Recession; Economics
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 255 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    Dissertation, Tilburg University, 2021