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  1. Recovery beating expectations
    economic analysis and outlook for Central, East and Southeast Europe : wiiw forecast report autumn 2021
    Author: Astrov, Vasily; Bykova, Alexandra; Grieveson, Richard; Leitner, Sebastian; Dobrinski, Rumen Nikolov; Duraković, Selena; Hanzl-Weiss, Doris; Hunya, Gábor; Jovanović, Branimir; Korpar, Niko; Mara, Isilda; Pindyuk, Olga; Podkaminer, Leon; Richter, Sándor; Ströhm, Bernd Christoph; Tverdostup, Maryna
    Published: 20 October 2021
    Publisher:  Verein "Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche" (wiiw), Wien

    The economic recovery in CESEE has strengthened further in recent months, resulting in a number of additional upgrades to our growth forecasts for 2021, to 5.4% on the regional average. This good performance has been built on two important foundation... more

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    C 284651
    Inter-library loan:
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The economic recovery in CESEE has strengthened further in recent months, resulting in a number of additional upgrades to our growth forecasts for 2021, to 5.4% on the regional average. This good performance has been built on two important foundation stones: the adaptation of the CESEE economies to the pandemic and the increasing reluctance of their governments to impose restrictions. Labour markets have recovered, too; labour shortages have been on the rise, albeit, paradoxically, underemployment is still an issue. Despite the recent rise in inflation, driven mostly by supply-side disruptions and energy prices, there have been so far few signs of overheating in the region. The pace of recovery is projected to slow to 3.7% next year and 3.5% in 2023. The risks to this forecast are mostly on the downside, and include particularly unfavourable COVID-19 developments, premature fiscal consolidation, and the upcoming monetary tapering in the US.

     
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