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  1. The outlook for China’s fossil fuel consumption under the energy transition and its geopolitical implications
    Published: June 2023
    Publisher:  The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, [Oxford]

    China is currently the world’s largest oil importer and is on track to becoming the biggest consumer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This dependency is viewed as a strategic vulnerability, especially as China’s ties with the USA are worsening and... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 783
    No inter-library loan

     

    China is currently the world’s largest oil importer and is on track to becoming the biggest consumer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). This dependency is viewed as a strategic vulnerability, especially as China’s ties with the USA are worsening and Beijing has growing concerns about Washington’s use of sanctions. As China pursues its low carbon energy transition, will reduced consumption of oil and gas shape its views of energy security and its geopolitical relations with producer countries? This paper discusses different scenarios for China’s oil and gas consumption, and notes that even though the overall demand volumes vary quite widely between outlooks, China is set to remain the world’s largest consumer of oil and the second largest importer of gas (behind the EU) for decades to come. It argues that given the dominance of coal and increasingly of renewables in the country’s energy mix, the economic impact of oil and gas supply outages is limited and will decline further. Nonetheless, China’s sense of energy insecurity will be informed as much by Beijing’s perceptions as by market realities. Looking ahead, the number of oil and gas suppliers to China is set to shrink, with imports coming predominantly from the USA, Russia, and the Middle East (and most notably Saudi Arabia for oil, and Qatar for LNG). But just as China will become increasingly dependent on a small number of exporters, their interdependence will deepen, leading producers to compete for market share in China. The dependence on a smaller number of suppliers could be seen as a vulnerability, but it also gives Beijing geopolitical leverage. The paper analyses the importance of oil and gas in China’s relations with its main suppliers, and argues that as China has incorporated energy interests into its broader foreign policy objectives, given the ongoing need for critical materials and other commodities (metals and grains, for instance), China will likely remain invested in countries and regions even after its oil and gas imports from them fall. Finally, the paper argues that China’s energy security policies are increasingly being shaped by the prospect of sanctions. Beijing will want to deepen ties and build coalitions aimed at weakening the USA’s ability to contain and suppress China. Beijing will also want to consolidate its relations with energy suppliers (as well as suppliers of other raw materials) so that, in the event of sanctions or a conflict, suppliers will struggle to pick between the USA and China, or will opt to align with China.

     

    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781784672096
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/280122
    Series: Array ; 8
    Subjects: China; Coal; critical materials; energy security; Gas; Geopolitics; LNG; low carbon transition; Middle East; net-zero; Oil; Renewables; Russia; Saudi Arabia; Supply Chains; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. International gas contracts
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, [Oxford]

    This paper offers an overview and explanation of international gas contracts, of which there are several types along the value chain. The key objective of this paper is to focus on two specific categories of long-term agreements for gas and liquefied... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 780
    No inter-library loan

     

    This paper offers an overview and explanation of international gas contracts, of which there are several types along the value chain. The key objective of this paper is to focus on two specific categories of long-term agreements for gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales, namely Gas Supply Agreements for pipeline gas (GSAs) and Sale and Purchase Agreements for LNG (LNG SPAs). These two types of long-term supply contracts play a central role in the international gas industry, where natural gas is transported by cross-border pipelines or shipped over long distances in the form of LNG. GSAs and LNG SPAs have a long history. They have underpinned early gas and LNG export projects dating back to the mid-1900s and later drove the development of international gas and LNG trade. Despite the emergence, and growing role, of spot and shorter-term alternatives, long-term GSAs and LNG SPAs have remained the key contractual instruments for international gas and LNG sales. GSAs and LNG SPAs have evolved over time. The early contracts were inflexible arrangements concluded between buyers and sellers for periods often exceeding 20 years, delivering gas and LNG in a rigid (mainly point-to-point) trading model. These contracts offered limited options to modify the rights and obligations of the parties during the lifetime of the contract. At the time parties accepted the rigid contract structures as buyers were seeking security of gas supply and sellers security of offtake. In response to various structural changes in gas markets (including principally market liberalization in North America and Europe), and changing supply and demand fundamentals, gas supply contracts have become increasingly flexible. The general trend towards more flexibility has been reflected in changes to both price and non-price terms in GSAs and LNG SPAs. A greater diversity of pricing mechanisms (including oil-, hub-, spot-indexed and other, price formulas applied on a stand-alone or hybrid basis), volume adjustments for operational purposes, and diversions of LNG cargoes, are some examples of flexible terms that are commonly found in the newer contracts. Notably, the historical principle of risk allocation, where the seller assumes the price risk, and the buyer assumes the volume risk, has remained relevant in long-term contract negotiations. There are no universally accepted general terms for pipeline gas and LNG supply contracts. GSAs and LNG SPAs are negotiated on a case-specific basis. They are typically strictly confidential and combine (1) the commercial choices of the parties and (2) their shared long-term outlook for market changes. In practice, long-term gas and LNG contracts commonly include price review clauses, but, they rarely provide a practicable renegotiation basis for more comprehensive changes to contract terms. The issue of contract reopener mechanisms became particularly relevant during the Covid-19 pandemic, where market circumstances significantly affected performance under gas and LNG contracts and triggered the need for various operational adjustments. More recently, the ability of the parties to renegotiate contract terms has become even more urgent amidst the global search for additional gas and LNG supplies in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and related disruptions (executed and anticipated) to Russian gas and LNG exports. The ongoing assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine arguably presents itself as the most critical and immediate challenge for long-term gas and LNG supply contracts. The continued pursuit of innovation in GSAs and LNG SPAs, along with the emerging contractual responses to decarbonisation requirements, are other examples of the key factors that will shape the outlook for international gas contracts in the future

     

    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781784672096
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/270527
    Series: Array ; 175
    Subjects: decarbonization; Gas Contract Renegotiation; Gas Markets; Gas Supply Agreements (GSA); International Gas Contracts; LNG; Russia Ukraine war; Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPA)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)