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Displaying results 1 to 11 of 11.

  1. A HANK2 model of monetary unions
    Author: Bayer, Christian; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Müller, Gernot J.; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 01 July 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    LZ 161
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18258
    Subjects: HANK2; OCA theory; Two-country model; monetary union; spillovers; monetary policy; heterogeneity; inequality; households
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Hicks in HANK
    fiscal responses to an energy shock
    Author: Bayer, Christian; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Müller, Gernot J.; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    The distributional and disruptive effects of energy supply shocks are potentially large. We study the effectiveness of alternative fiscal responses in a two-country HANK model that we calibrate to the euro area. Energy subsidies can stabilize the... more

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    The distributional and disruptive effects of energy supply shocks are potentially large. We study the effectiveness of alternative fiscal responses in a two-country HANK model that we calibrate to the euro area. Energy subsidies can stabilize the domestic economy, but are fiscally costly and generate adverse spillovers to the rest of the monetary union: What the subsidizing country gains, the other countries lose. Transfers based on historical energy consumption in the form of a Hicks/Slutsky compensation are less effective domestically as subsidies but do not harm economic activity abroad. In addition, transfers increase welfare at Home while subsidies reduce welfare.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/279487
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 2056
    Subjects: Energy crisis; Subsidies; Transfers; HANK 2; monetary union; spillovers; heterogeneity; inequality; households
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Hicks in hank
    fiscal responses to an energy shock
    Author: Bayer, Christian; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Müller, Gernot J.; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 27 October 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18557
    Subjects: Energy crisis; Subsidies; Transfers; HANK2; monetary union; spillovers,heterogeneity; inequality; households
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 54 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. A HANK2 model of monetary unions
    Author: Bayer, Christian; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Müller, Gernot J.; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK2) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock... more

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    How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK2) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally - across countries - within the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution rather than vertically - that is, across the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution. Calibrating the model to the euro area reveals that a monetary union alters the impact of shocks most strongly in the tails of the wealth distribution but leaves the middle class almost unaffected.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273327
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 2044
    Subjects: HANK2; OCA theory; Two-country model; monetary union; spillovers; monetary policy; heterogeneity; inequality; households
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Stopp russischer Energieeinfuhren würde deutsche Wirtschaft spürbar treffen, Fiskalpolitik wäre in der Verantwortung
    Author: Bayer, Christian; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin

    Nach dem Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine haben viele westliche Länder Sanktionen gegen Russland verhängt, insbesondere gegen die Finanzwirtschaft. Doch zu einer Sanktion konnten sich die EU und auch Deutschland bisher nicht durchringen: ein... more

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    Nach dem Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine haben viele westliche Länder Sanktionen gegen Russland verhängt, insbesondere gegen die Finanzwirtschaft. Doch zu einer Sanktion konnten sich die EU und auch Deutschland bisher nicht durchringen: ein Embargo auf den Import russischer Energieträger. Dieses vielfach kritisierte Zögern begründet die Bundesregierung mit den wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen, die ein Importstopp für die deutsche Wirtschaft haben könnte. Denkbar ist aber auch, dass Russland seine Lieferungen aussetzt. Die vorliegende Modellrechnung zeigt, durch welche Wirkungskanäle – mit einem Fokus auf der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Nachfrage und vor allem dem privaten Konsum – ein Embargo oder Lieferstopp Deutschland treffen könnte. In dem Basisszenario erstrecken sich die BIP-Verluste über rund zehn Jahre und erreichen ihren Höhepunkt nach 18 Monaten mit einem Minus von drei Prozent. Gleichzeitig würde ein Importstopp zu einem Anstieg der Inflation um bis zu 2,3 Prozentpunkte führen. Das hier verwendete Modell wird dabei so aufgesetzt, dass es die Schwachpunkte einer kürzlich erschienenen Studie adressiert, indem es sowohl den privaten Konsum als auch die Wechselwirkungen im Euroraum miteinbezieht. Beide Studien zusammen ergeben ein immer besseres Bild der Wirkungsmechanismen eines Energieembargos auf die deutsche Wirtschaft. Das Modell macht eine Reihe von Annahmen, die in den meisten Fällen realistisch und angemessen sind. Jedoch muss betont werden, dass es noch nie ein solches Embargo in einer solchen Situation gegeben hat, so dass jegliche Annahmen mit Unsicherheit verbunden sind. Die Resultate auf Basis des Modells deuten die Größenordnung der Effekte eines Embargos an und sollen dazu dienen, der Politik eine Orientierung bei einem möglichen Lieferstopp zu geben.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: German
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251981
    Series: Array ; Nr. 80 (29. März 2022)
    Subjects: Energiewirtschaft
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 6 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Europa auf dem Weg zur Fiskalunion: Investitionen stärken statt Entschuldung vorantreiben
    Author: Ettmeier, Stephanie; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin

    06. September 2021 - In der Pandemie hat die Europäische Union in einem Kraftakt finanzielle Mittel in enormem Ausmaß zur Verfügung gestellt, um die wirtschaftlichen Verwerfungen abzumildern. Erstmals wurden dafür der Stabilitäts- und Wirtschaftspakt... more

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    DSP 162
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    06. September 2021 - In der Pandemie hat die Europäische Union in einem Kraftakt finanzielle Mittel in enormem Ausmaß zur Verfügung gestellt, um die wirtschaftlichen Verwerfungen abzumildern. Erstmals wurden dafür der Stabilitäts- und Wirtschaftspakt ausgesetzt und gemeinsame Schulden aufgenommen. Ist dieses Vorgehen die Blaupause für eine künftige Fiskalunion oder eher ein einmaliges Vorgehen mit Rückkehr zu den Maastricht-Kriterien? In der Bundestagswahl positionieren sich die Parteien zu einer gemeinsamen europäischen Fiskalpolitik sehr unterschiedlich. Klar ist aber, dass Deutschland in der künftigen Debatte das Zünglein an der Waage sein könnte und der Ausgang der Bundestagswahl daher auch für die Zukunft Europas die entscheidenden Weichen stellt. Die vorliegenden aktuellen Berechnungen zeigen, dass eine Rückkehr zu den Maastricht-Kriterien schädlich wäre und zwar nicht nur für die stark verschuldeten Länder, sondern auch für die wirtschaftlich starken Länder. Eine Fiskalpolitik hingegen, die auf Investitionen setzt, käme der Gemeinschaft als Ganzer zugute - vor allem dann, wenn das Zusammenspiel zwischen Geld- und Fiskalpolitik koordiniert ist. Die künftige Bundesregierung sollte sich daher für eine gemeinsame EU-Fiskalpolitik stark machen.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: German
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/243216
    Series: Array ; Nr. 73 (06. September 2021)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 7 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Bad Luck or Bad Decisions? Macroeconomic Implications of Persistent Heterogeneity in Cognitive Skills and Overconfidence
    Author: Pfäuti, Oliver; Seyrich, Fabian; Zinman, Jonathan
    Published: April 2024
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially... more

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    Sächsische Landesbibliothek - Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Dresden
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    Universitätsbibliothek Freiburg
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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Hamburg Carl von Ossietzky
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    Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB) / Leibniz-Informationszentrum Technik und Naturwissenschaften und Universitätsbibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Business cycle models often abstract from persistent household heterogeneity, despite its potentially significant implications for macroeconomic fluctuations and policy. We show empirically that the likelihood of being persistently financially constrained decreases with cognitive skills and increases with overconfidence thereon. Guided by this and other micro evidence, we add persistent heterogeneity in cognitive skills and overconfidence to an otherwise standard HANK model. Overconfidence proves to be the key innovation, driving households to spend instead of precautionary save and producing empirically realistic wealth distributions and hand-to-mouth shares and MPCs across the income distribution. We highlight implications for various fiscal policies

     
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  8. A behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
    Author: Pfäuti, Oliver; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy... more

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    We develop a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity and bounded rationality in the form of cognitive discounting. The interaction of household heterogeneity and bounded rationality generates amplification of monetary and fiscal policy through indirect general equilibrium effects while simultaneously ruling out the forward guidance puzzle and remaining stable at the effective lower bound. Thus, the model can account for recent empirical findings on the transmission mechanisms and effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy. When abstracting from either household heterogeneity or bounded rationality the model fails to do so. Our framework nests a broad range of existing models, none of which can be consistent with all these empirical facts simultaneously. According to our model, central banks have to increase interest rates more strongly than in the rational model after an inflationary supply shock to fully stabilize inflation. While fully stabilizing inflation keeps output at potential, higher real interest rates mainly benefit wealthy households and increase the cost of government debt, leading to a substantial increase in government debt and inequality. Our model thus indicates a more pronounced trade off between aggregate efficiency and price stability on one hand, and distributional consequences and fiscal sustainability on the other hand.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/262208
    Edition: Updated version, August 2022
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1995
    Subjects: Heterogeneous Households; Behavioral Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Forward Guidance; Fiscal Policy; Lower Bound; Inflation; Macroeconomic Stabilization
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 82 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. A behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model
    Author: Pfäuti, Oliver; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2022
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin

    We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal... more

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    We propose a behavioral heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is amplified through indirect general equilibrium effects, fiscal multipliers can be larger than one and which delivers empirically-realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. Simultaneously, the model resolves the forward guidance puzzle, remains stable at the effective lower bound and determinate under an interest-rate peg. The model is analytically tractable and nests a wide range of existing models as special cases, none of which can produce all the listed features within one model. We extend our model and derive an equivalence result of models featuring bounded rationality and models featuring incomplete information and learning. This extended model generates hump-shaped responses of aggregate variables and a novel behavioral amplification channel that is absent in existing HANK models.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/251459
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1995
    Subjects: Behavioral Macroeconomics; Heterogeneous Households; Monetary Policy; Forward Guidance; Fiscal Policy; New Keynesian Puzzles; Determinacy; Lower Bound
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Unconventional fiscal policy in HANK
    Author: Seidl, Hannah; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    We show that in a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity, fiscal policy can be a perfect substitute for monetary policy: three simple conditions for consumption taxes, labor taxes, and the government debt level are sufficient to induce the... more

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    We show that in a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity, fiscal policy can be a perfect substitute for monetary policy: three simple conditions for consumption taxes, labor taxes, and the government debt level are sufficient to induce the same consumption and labor supply of each household and, thus, the same allocation as interest rate policies. When monetary policy is constrained by a binding lower bound, a currency union, or an exchange rate peg, fiscal policy can therefore replicate any allocation that hypothetically unconstrained monetary policy would generate.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/262363
    Edition: This version: August 10, 2022
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1953
    Subjects: Unconventional Fiscal Policy; Heterogeneous Agents; Incomplete Markets; Liquidity Trap; Sticky Prices
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Unconventional fiscal policy in HANK
    Author: Seidl, Hannah; Seyrich, Fabian
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, Berlin

    In HANK, we show that fiscal policy is an appropriate macroeconomic stabilization tool at the ZLB. Fiscal policy achieves the same macroeconomic aggregates and the same welfare as hypothetically unconstrained monetary policy by replicating its... more

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    In HANK, we show that fiscal policy is an appropriate macroeconomic stabilization tool at the ZLB. Fiscal policy achieves the same macroeconomic aggregates and the same welfare as hypothetically unconstrained monetary policy by replicating its transmission mechanism. Consumption taxes and labor taxes replicate the effects of monetary policy through the intertemporal substitution channel. Debt-financed lumpsum transfers and a permanent increase in the government debt level replicate the effects of monetary policy through the redistribution channel.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/235761
    Series: Discussion papers / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung ; 1953
    Subjects: Unconventional Fiscal Policy; Heterogeneous Agents; Incomplete Markets; Liquidity Trap; Sticky Prices
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten), Illustrationen