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  1. Policy trade-offs in building resilience to natural disasters
    the case of Saint Lucia
    Author: Cantelmo, Alessandro; Bonato, Leo; Melina, Giovanni; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection -insurance and self-insurance- and structural protection -investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to... more

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    Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection -insurance and self-insurance- and structural protection -investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the St. Lucia's economy, this paper shows that both strategies considerably reduce the output loss from natural disasters and studies the conditions under which each of the two strategies provides the best protection. While structural protection normally delivers a larger payoff because of its direct dampening effect on the cost of disasters, financial protection is superior when liquidity constraints limit the ability of the government to rebuild public capital promptly. The estimated trade-off is very sensitive to the efficiency of public investment

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781498302654
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 54
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Explaining high unemployment in ECCU countries
    Author: James, Ronald; Lafeuillee, Jemma; Li, Xin; Salinas, Gonzalo; Savchenko, Yevgeniya
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are significantly... more

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    In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also suggests that high-paid jobs in the public and tourism sectors, which have been growing considerably in recent decades, could have increased the reservation wage and lowered labor force participation. We find no indication that high structural unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected, unemployment has been substantially, but only temporarily fueled by large natural disasters

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498318709
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 144
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Explaining high unemployment in ECCU countries
    Author: James, Ronald; Lafeuillee, Jemma; Li, Xin; Salinas, Gonzalo; Savchenko, Yevgeniya
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are significantly... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also suggests that high-paid jobs in the public and tourism sectors, which have been growing considerably in recent decades, could have increased the reservation wage and lowered labor force participation. We find no indication that high structural unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected, unemployment has been substantially, but only temporarily fueled by large natural disasters

     
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    Content information
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498318709
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 144
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Tourism in the post-pandemic world
    economic challenges and opportunities for Asia-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere
    Author: Goretti, Manuela; Leigh, Lamin; Babii, Aleksandra; Cevik, Serhan; Kaendera, Stella; Muir, Dirk; Nadeem, Sanaa; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA

    This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the... more

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    This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513561905
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    Series: Departmental paper series ; no 21, 02
    Subjects: Coronavirus; Wirkungsanalyse; Tourismus; Tourismuswirtschaft; Asiatisch-pazifischer Raum; Lateinamerika; Karibischer Raum; COVID-19; Diversification; Growth; Jobs; Tourism
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 115 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Estimating the impact of external shocks on the ECCU
    application to the COVID shock
    Author: Parlak, Vivian; Salinas, Gonzalo; Vargas, Mauricio
    Published: August 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic... more

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    We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries' tourism dependency

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513585413
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 218
    Subjects: Forecasting; ECCU; COVID-19; Growth; Panel-Data; Classification Methods; Cluster Analysis; Factor Models; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Principal Components
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Policy trade-offs in building resilience to natural disasters
    the case of Saint Lucia
    Author: Cantelmo, Alessandro; Bonato, Leo; Melina, Giovanni; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: 2019
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection -insurance and self-insurance- and structural protection -investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)

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    Resilience to climate change and natural disasters hinges on two fundamental elements: financial protection -insurance and self-insurance- and structural protection -investment in adaptation. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the St. Lucia's economy, this paper shows that both strategies considerably reduce the output loss from natural disasters and studies the conditions under which each of the two strategies provides the best protection. While structural protection normally delivers a larger payoff because of its direct dampening effect on the cost of disasters, financial protection is superior when liquidity constraints limit the ability of the government to rebuild public capital promptly. The estimated trade-off is very sensitive to the efficiency of public investment

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781498302654
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/19, 54
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. HIV/AIDS
    the impact on poverty and inequality
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo; Haacker, Markus
    Published: 2006
    Publisher:  IMF, Washington, DC

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    W 128 (06.126)
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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
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    Series: IMF working paper ; 06/126
    Subjects: AIDS; Armut; Einkommensverteilung; Zentralafrika; Ghana; Kenia; Eswatini; Sambia
    Scope: 22 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Literaturverz. S. 20 - 21
  8. Explaining episodes of growth accelerations, decelerations and collapses in Western Africa
    Author: Imam, Patrick; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: 2008
    Publisher:  Internat. Monetary Fund, Washington, DC

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    W 128 (08.287)
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    Series: IMF working paper ; 08/287
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Westafrika
    Scope: 44 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Literaturverz. S. 34 - 35
  9. The macroeconomic impact of scaled-up aid
    the case of Niger
    Author: Farah, Abdikarim M.; Sacerdoti, Emilio; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: 2009
    Publisher:  Internat. Monetary Fund, Washington, DC

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    W 128 (2009.36)
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    Media type: Book
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    Series: IMF working paper ; 09/36
    Subjects: Entwicklungshilfe; Wirkungsanalyse; Investition; Bildungsinvestition; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Kaufkraftparität; Entwicklungsländer; Niger
    Scope: 33 S., graph. Darst.
  10. Estimating the impact of external shocks on the ECCU
    application to the COVID shock
    Author: Parlak, Vivian; Salinas, Gonzalo; Vargas, Mauricio
    Published: August 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic... more

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    We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries' tourism dependency

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781513585413
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 218
    Subjects: Forecasting; ECCU; COVID-19; Growth; Panel-Data; Classification Methods; Cluster Analysis; Factor Models; Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Principal Components
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 37 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Tourism in the post-pandemic world
    economic challenges and opportunities for Asia-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere
    Author: Goretti, Manuela; Leigh, Lamin; Babii, Aleksandra; Cevik, Serhan; Kaendera, Stella; Muir, Dirk; Nadeem, Sanaa; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA

    This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the... more

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    This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513561905
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    Series: Departmental paper series ; no 21, 02
    Subjects: Coronavirus; Wirkungsanalyse; Tourismus; Tourismuswirtschaft; Asiatisch-pazifischer Raum; Lateinamerika; Karibischer Raum; COVID-19; Diversification; Growth; Jobs; Tourism
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 115 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Proximity and horizontal policies
    the backbone of export diversification and complexity
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The lack of a clear link between general economic fundamentals and export diversification indicators in the literature has fueled the believe that industrial policies are an absolute requisite to diversify exports. This paper, however, does find a... more

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    The lack of a clear link between general economic fundamentals and export diversification indicators in the literature has fueled the believe that industrial policies are an absolute requisite to diversify exports. This paper, however, does find a strong statistical connection between horizontal policies and diversification by making two novel changes to traditional methodologies: using export categories that lead to diversification (for example, manufactures) as dependent variables, and using a gravity-equation regression setting. Proximity to other economies explains about a third of cross-country heterogeneity in targeted exports, and four fifths together with horizontal policies. Australia, Chile, and New Zealand emerge as new role models for diversification policies

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513571614
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 64
    Subjects: International trade; economic growth; economic development; export diversification; export complexity; Economic Development; Economic Growth; Export Complexity; Export Diversification; International Trade
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Chile
    a role model of export diversification policies?
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile's exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the... more

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    Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile's exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the country's success in developing non-mineral and complex exports. This achievement is remarkable considering its remoteness from the large international economic centers, which limits its integration to global value chains. As suggested in this paper, this accomplishment reflects Chile's strength in policy areas that foster non-mineral exports (including complex exports), making the country a role model in export diversification and complexity policies among emerging market countries

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513573373
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 148
    Subjects: International trade; economic growth; economic development; export diversification; export complexity; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Trade liberalization in Peru
    adjustment costs amidst high labor mobility
    Author: Baldárrago, Elin; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: February 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high... more

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    While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high intranational migration, as theory indicates that labor mobility could reduce it. We focus on the 2004-14 period of trade liberalization in Peru (a major beneficiary of trade integration), which allows for methodological improvements relative to similar studies. We find that districts competing with liberalized imports experienced significantly lower growth in consumption per capita despite some emigration in response to increased import competition. This underscores the need to support the 'losers of trade liberalization' even amidst high labor mobility

     
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/17, 47
    Subjects: Handelsliberalisierung; Armut; Zollpolitik; Peru
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Growth before and after trade liberalization
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo; Aksoy, Ataman
    Published: 2006
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Research Group, Trade Team, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 4062
    Subjects: Handelsliberalisierung; Wirtschaftswachstum
    Scope: II, 47 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:
  16. Growth in Africa under peace and market reforms
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo; Gueye, Cheikh; Korbut, Olessia
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  Internat. Monetary Fund, Washington, DC

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    Series: IMF working paper ; 11/40
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung; Politische Instabilität; Subsahara-Afrika
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 29 S., 1,145 KB), graph. Darst.
  17. Growth before and after trade liberalization
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo; Aksoy, Ataman
    Published: 2006
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Research Group, Trade Team, Washington, DC

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    Subjects: Handelsliberalisierung; Wirtschaftswachstum
    Scope: II, 47 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:
  18. Trade liberalization in Peru
    adjustment costs amidst high labor mobility
    Author: Baldárrago, Elin; Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: February 2017
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high... more

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    While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high intranational migration, as theory indicates that labor mobility could reduce it. We focus on the 2004-14 period of trade liberalization in Peru (a major beneficiary of trade integration), which allows for methodological improvements relative to similar studies. We find that districts competing with liberalized imports experienced significantly lower growth in consumption per capita despite some emigration in response to increased import competition. This underscores the need to support the 'losers of trade liberalization' even amidst high labor mobility

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    ISBN: 9781475585568
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/17, 47
    Subjects: Handelsliberalisierung; Armut; Zollpolitik; Peru
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Chile
    a role model of export diversification policies?
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: May 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile's exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the... more

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    Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile's exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the country's success in developing non-mineral and complex exports. This achievement is remarkable considering its remoteness from the large international economic centers, which limits its integration to global value chains. As suggested in this paper, this accomplishment reflects Chile's strength in policy areas that foster non-mineral exports (including complex exports), making the country a role model in export diversification and complexity policies among emerging market countries

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    ISBN: 9781513573373
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 148
    Subjects: International trade; economic growth; economic development; export diversification; export complexity; Foreign Exchange; Informal Economy; Underground Econom
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 30 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Proximity and horizontal policies
    the backbone of export diversification and complexity
    Author: Salinas, Gonzalo
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, DC]

    The lack of a clear link between general economic fundamentals and export diversification indicators in the literature has fueled the believe that industrial policies are an absolute requisite to diversify exports. This paper, however, does find a... more

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    The lack of a clear link between general economic fundamentals and export diversification indicators in the literature has fueled the believe that industrial policies are an absolute requisite to diversify exports. This paper, however, does find a strong statistical connection between horizontal policies and diversification by making two novel changes to traditional methodologies: using export categories that lead to diversification (for example, manufactures) as dependent variables, and using a gravity-equation regression setting. Proximity to other economies explains about a third of cross-country heterogeneity in targeted exports, and four fifths together with horizontal policies. Australia, Chile, and New Zealand emerge as new role models for diversification policies

     
    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
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    ISBN: 9781513571614
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/21, 64
    Subjects: International trade; economic growth; economic development; export diversification; export complexity; Economic Development; Economic Growth; Export Complexity; Export Diversification; International Trade
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten), Illustrationen