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Displaying results 1 to 14 of 14.

  1. Financial shocks and exchange market pressure
    Author: Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    The taper tantrum episode induced a sudden outflow of capital from emerging markets back to the United States. This paper analyzes exchange market pressure in 93 developing and emerging market economies during this episode, drawing on recent... more

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    The taper tantrum episode induced a sudden outflow of capital from emerging markets back to the United States. This paper analyzes exchange market pressure in 93 developing and emerging market economies during this episode, drawing on recent methodological improvements in measuring exchange market pressure. We find that all economies in the sample that were integrated with global capital markets were heavily hit. Although popular discourse suggested that the extent of an economy's fragility depended on its macroeconomic fundamentals, we find these fundamentals did not have much of a role in determining the level of pressure on a currency.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/203422
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 581 (May 2019)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The impact of tropical cyclones on fishing activities in the Philippines
    Author: Noy, Ilan; Lacheheb, Miloud; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    In this paper, we identify the main fishing grounds and track the response of fishing vessels' activity to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone during 2012. We use satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and... more

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    In this paper, we identify the main fishing grounds and track the response of fishing vessels' activity to tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone during 2012. We use satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to locate fishing vessels and identify the main fishing grounds; in conjunction with data on TCs' speed and trajectory from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship database. We use kernel density functions to identify fishing grounds and Vector Generalized Linear Model and Bayesian Time-Varying Parameter to assess the impact of TC speed on the location of fishing vessels during and after the TC. Our quantifications reveal the overall negative impact of TCs on the number of active boats during and 2 days after the TC. The fishing grounds located within the Sibuyan Sea, Visayan Sea, and Panay Gulf are the most affected areas. Daily reduction in the commercial fishing production in Western Visayas alone for every day a TC passed through was estimated at 7,800 tons per day, affecting more than 188,000 families.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 691 (August 2023)
    Subjects: fisheries; Philippines; tropical cyclone; satellite imagery; economic impact
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Emerging economy business cycles
    financial integration and terms of trade shocks
    Author: Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: May 2013
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy... more

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    This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781484354605
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    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/13, 119
    Subjects: Konjunktur; Volatilität; DSGE-Modell; Terms of Trade; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; Makroökonomik; Schwellenländer
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. The recent convergence of financial development in Asia
    Author: Dekle, Robert; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

    We construct an index of financial development for 23 Asian economies based on subindices of access, depth, and efficiency of financial institutions and markets and find evidence that economies with weaker financial systems are catching up to the... more

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    We construct an index of financial development for 23 Asian economies based on subindices of access, depth, and efficiency of financial institutions and markets and find evidence that economies with weaker financial systems are catching up to the Asian benchmark economies, namely Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Singapore. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, aggregate GDP, and mobile subscriptions all increase the growth rate of financial development in Asian economies while institutional factors have insignificant or ambiguous effects. We also evaluate the relative importance of the subindices in delivering high economic growth, low volatility, and greater financial access.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 11540/5083
    hdl: 10419/128559
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; 440
    Scope: Online-Ressource (20 S.), graph. Darst.
  5. Is India's long-term trend growth declining?
    Author: Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

    The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a business cycle slowdown. We observe a cyclical downturn post-global financial crisis due to external and domestic conditions. With... more

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    The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a business cycle slowdown. We observe a cyclical downturn post-global financial crisis due to external and domestic conditions. With global recovery strengthening and appropriate demand management policies, the business cycle downturn can be reversed. At the same time, the economy witnessed negative shocks to trend growth caused by policy uncertainty. In this paper, we argue that these shocks are temporary. A stable policy environment can give positive shocks to growth. Policy action eliminating frictions that hamper efficient allocation of resources in factor markets can be seen as a positive shock that will pull up trend growth of output. Given that the supply of factors, namely labor, human capital, infrastructure, and non-infrastructure capital appears robust and productivity growth potentially strong, timely reforms that eliminate structural bottlenecks will enable trend growth to pick up.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/128538
    hdl: 11540/4219
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; 424
    Subjects: Wirtschaftswachstum; Konjunktur; Trend; Finanzkrise; Produktionsfaktor; Wirtschaftspolitik; Schock; Indien
    Scope: Online-Ressource (29 S.)
  6. Emerging economy business cycles
    financial integration and terms of trade shocks
    Author: Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: May 2013
    Publisher:  International Monetary Fund, [Washington, D.C.]

    This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy... more

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    Helmut-Schmidt-Universität, Universität der Bundeswehr Hamburg, Universitätsbibliothek
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    VS 301 (2013,119)
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    This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle

     
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9781484354605
    Other identifier:
    Series: IMF working paper ; WP/13, 119
    Subjects: Konjunktur; Volatilität; DSGE-Modell; Terms of Trade; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; Makroökonomik; Schwellenländer
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Where's India's growth headed?
    Author: Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: 15-Jan-2016
    Publisher:  National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Working paper / National Institute of Public Finance and Policy ; no.159
    Subjects: Produktionspotenzial; Bruttoinlandsprodukt; Wirtschaftsprognose; Politische Reform; Indien
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (27 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Emerging economy business cycles
    financial integration and terms of trade shocks
    Author: Bhattacharya, Rudrani; Patnaik, Ila; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  National Inst. of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
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    Format: Online
    Series: Working papers / National Institute of Public Finance and Policy ; 120
    Subjects: Finanzmarktregulierung; Marktintegration; Terms of Trade; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; Kleine offene Volkswirtschaft; Theorie
    Scope: Online-Ressource (25 S.)
  9. The impact of a People's Republic of China slowdown on commodity prices and detecting the asymmetric responses of economic activity in Asian countries to commodity price shocks
    Author: Ghoshray, Atanu; Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: July 2016
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    The recent slowdown of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has led to question to what extent the PRC demand of commodities can have an impact on commodity prices. We take into account the fact that commodity prices are characterized by structural... more

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    The recent slowdown of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has led to question to what extent the PRC demand of commodities can have an impact on commodity prices. We take into account the fact that commodity prices are characterized by structural breaks, and to this end we make use of novel econometric procedures incorporating the Flexible Fourier Form when testing for causal relations between the PRC slowdown and commodity prices. We find varying degrees of response of the PRC slowdown on different commodity prices. Further, this study determines whether the economic growth in selected developing and emerging Asian countries that are heavily dependent on commodities respond in an asymmetric manner to positive commodity price shocks as opposed to negative price shocks. Adopting a structural dynamic regression and censoring positive and negative shocks, we find limited evidence of any asymmetric response of economic activity to positive and negative commodity price shocks.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/169324
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 493 (July 2016)
    Subjects: China; Wachstumsschwäche; Volkswirtschaft; Preisänderung; Rohstoffversorgung; ; Asien; Entwicklungsländer; Rohstoffpreis; Wirtschaftsmathematik;
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in Asia and the Pacific
    Author: Ambaw, Dessie Tarko; Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief; Sim, Nicholas
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications,... more

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    Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing economies. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a reduction in economic growth, exports and export diversification, and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample economies from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in Asia and the Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short-term interest rate, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may lead to a reduction in CPI inflation and short-term interest rate. We also find that Asia and the Pacific is highly heterogeneous wherein the output gaps of some economies, particularly those in Southeast Asia, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/259489
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 651 (March 2022)
    Subjects: real exchange rate misalignment; business cycle fluctuations
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. A gender-sensitive earthquake recovery assessment using administrative and satellite data
    the Case of Indonesia's 2016 Aceh earthquake
    Author: Akter, Sonia; Chairunissa, Talitha Fauzia; Pundit, Madhavi; Schröder, Marcel
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    This study presents a gender-specific assessment of medium-term disaster recovery following a series of earthquakes in Indonesia's Aceh Province on 7 December 2016. For this assessment, we combine the village-level nighttime radiance data obtained... more

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    This study presents a gender-specific assessment of medium-term disaster recovery following a series of earthquakes in Indonesia's Aceh Province on 7 December 2016. For this assessment, we combine the village-level nighttime radiance data obtained from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument, distance from the earthquake epicenters collected from the United Nations Satellite Centre and the Village Potential Statistics (PODES) 2014 and 2018-administrative data collected by Indonesia's Central Statistics Bureau. We develop a novel index to represent women's welfare in the context of a disaster-the Women's Welfare after Disasters Index (W2DI). The nighttime radiance scores are used as indicators of overall economic welfare, while the W2DI specifically represents women's welfare. Using the difference-indifferences method, we compare the average monthly nighttime radiance and W2DI scores in earthquake-affected and unaffected villages of the Aceh Province before and after the 2016 earthquake series. Similar to studies using the nighttime radiance to monitor disaster recovery and relief, our findings reveal that, on average, the monthly nighttime radiance scores of the earthquake-affected villages 2 months after the earthquakes were brighter relative to the changes of the unaffected villages, implying an improvement in overall economic well-being of the earthquake-affected population. However, findings from the W2DI give us richer insights related to women's welfare. While an important domain of women's welfare-particularly, availability and access to the health infrastructure-improved significantly after the earthquake series, there was substantial deterioration in access to basic needs (e.g., water, fuel, sanitation). Such access plays an essential role in women's well-being as they are directly linked to women's role in the society. This study demonstrates that women in disaster-affected areas may experience a setback in some domains of their welfare in the medium term even when the economic welfare in the disaster-affected areas, in general, improved because of the gradual increase of human activities after reconstruction work occurred. The study also shows how a gender-specific disaster assessment tool can be developed and applied to monitor and assess disaster recovery for a subgroup of population and identify areas that require intervention.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 674 (December 2022)
    Subjects: Disaster relief; recovery; climate injustice; socioeconomic vulnerability; gender
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 33 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Nowcasting from space
    impact of tropical cyclones on Fiji's agriculture
    Author: Noy, Ilan; Blanc, Elodie; Pundit, Madhavi; Uher, Tomas
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    The standard approach to 'nowcast' disaster impacts, which relies on risk models, does not typically account for the compounding impact of various hazard phenomena (e.g., wind and rainfall associated with tropical storms). The alternative,... more

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    The standard approach to 'nowcast' disaster impacts, which relies on risk models, does not typically account for the compounding impact of various hazard phenomena (e.g., wind and rainfall associated with tropical storms). The alternative, traditionally, has been a team of experts sent to the affected areas to conduct a ground survey, but this is time-consuming, difficult, and costly. Satellite imagery may provide an easily available and accurate data source to gauge disasters' specific impacts, which is both cheap, fast, and can account for compound and cascading effects. If accurate enough, it can potentially replace components of ground surveys altogether. An approach that has been calibrated with remote sensing imagery can also be used as a component in a nowcasting tool, to assess the impact of a cyclone, based only on its known trajectory, and even before post-event satellite imagery is available. We use one example to investigate the feasibility of this approach for nowcasting, and for post-disaster damage assessment. We focus on Fiji and on its agriculture sector, and on tropical cyclones (TCs). We link remote sensing data with available household surveys and the agricultural census data to obtain an improved assessment of TC impacts. We show that remote sensing data, when combined with pre-event socioeconomic and demographic data, can be used for both nowcasting and post-disaster damage assessments.

     
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    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 676 (January 2023)
    Subjects: satellite; cyclone; damage; impact; disaster; nowcasting
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Capital flows and financial stability in emerging economies
    Author: Baum, Christopher F.; Pundit, Madhavi; Ramayandi, Arief
    Published: [2017]
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    There is mixed evidence for the impact of international capital flows on financial sector's stability. This paper investigates the relationship between components of gross capital flows and various financial stability indicators for 16 emerging and... more

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    There is mixed evidence for the impact of international capital flows on financial sector's stability. This paper investigates the relationship between components of gross capital flows and various financial stability indicators for 16 emerging and newly industrialized economies. Departing from panel data methods, for each financial stability proxy, we employ systems of seemingly unrelated regression estimators to allow variation in the estimated relationship across countries, while permitting crossequation restrictions to be imposed within a country. The findings suggest that, after controlling for macroeconomic factors, there are significant effects of different gross capital flow measures on the financial stability proxies. However, the effects are not homogeneous across our sample economies and across flows. Country-specific financial and macroeconomic characteristics help to explain some of these differences.

     
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    46
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/203362
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 522 (October 2017)
    Boston College working papers in economics ; number 936
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Comovement in business cycles and trade in intermediate goods
    Author: Pundit, Madhavi
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  National Inst. of Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

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    Series: Working papers / National Institute of Public Finance and Policy ; 116
    Subjects: Vorleistungen; Außenhandel; Konjunkturzusammenhang; Offene Volkswirtschaft; Theorie; Business cycles; Intermediate goods
    Scope: Online-Ressource