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Displaying results 1 to 25 of 32.

  1. Foreign aid and sustainable inclusive human development in Africa
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    Motivated by evidence that extreme poverty has been decreasing in all regions of the world with the exception of Africa, the study contributes to the literature on reinventing foreign aid by assessing if development assistance can sustain inclusive... more

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    Motivated by evidence that extreme poverty has been decreasing in all regions of the world with the exception of Africa, the study contributes to the literature on reinventing foreign aid by assessing if development assistance can sustain inclusive human development. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries with data for the period 2005-2012 and Generalised Method of Moments. The adopted foreign aid variables include: aid for social infrastructure, aid for economic infrastructure, aid to the productive sector, aid to the multi sector, programme assistance, action on debt and humanitarian assistance. The results reveal that whereas foreign aid improves inclusive human development in the short-run, it decreases it in the long term. Policy implications are discussed with particular emphasis on reinventing foreign aid for sustainable development in the post-2015 development agenda.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/204988
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/18, 044
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten)
  2. Dynamic determinants of access to weapons
    global evidence
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study investigates the determinants of and persistence in access to weapons using a global sample of 163 countries for the period 2010 to 2015. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). Hysteresis in access to... more

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    This study investigates the determinants of and persistence in access to weapons using a global sample of 163 countries for the period 2010 to 2015. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). Hysteresis in access to weapons is consistently more apparent in countries with below-median levels in access to weapons, compared to their counterparts with above-median levels in access to weapons. The hysteresis hypothesis within this context is the propensity of past values of access to weapons to influence future values of access to weapons. Factors that consistently drive access to weapons are: perceptions of crime; criminality; conflict intensity; political instability; military expenditure, violent demonstrations and terrorism. The effects of these drivers are contingent on initial levels of access to weapons. Policy recommendations for managing access to weapons are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/204951
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 008
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten)
  3. ICT in reducing information asymmetry for financial sector competition
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    In this study, we examine the role of information and communication technology in complementing information sharing bureaus (or private credit bureaus and public credit registries) for financial sector competition. Hitherto unexplored dimensions of... more

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    In this study, we examine the role of information and communication technology in complementing information sharing bureaus (or private credit bureaus and public credit registries) for financial sector competition. Hitherto unexplored dimensions of financial sector competition are employed, namely: financial sector dynamics of formalization, informalization and non-formalization. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011 and the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) with forward orthogonal deviations. The findings differ across financial sectors in terms of marginal, net and threshold effects. By introducing the concept of financialization, the study unites two streams of research by: improving the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and responding to an evolving field of development literature by means of informal finance. Moreover, a practical method by which to disentangle the effects of reducing information asymmetry on various financial sectors is suggested. Policy implications are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/204967
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/18, 035
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  4. REER imbalances and macroeconomic adjustments
    evidence from the CEMAC zone
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    The EMU crisis holds special lessons for existing monetary unions. We assess the behavior of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) zone with respect to their long-term... more

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    The EMU crisis holds special lessons for existing monetary unions. We assess the behavior of real effective exchange rates (REERs) of members of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) zone with respect to their long-term equilibrium paths. A reduced form of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) model is estimated and associated misalignments. Our findings suggest that for majority of countries, macroeconomic fundamentals have the expected associations with the exchange rate fluctuations. The analysis also reveals that only the REER adjustments of Cameroon and Gabon are significant in restoring the long-term equilibrium in event of a shock. The Cameroonian economic fundamentals of terms of trade, government expenditure and openness have different long-term relations with the REER in comparison to those of other member states. There is no need for an adjustment in the level of the peg based on the present quantitative analysis of REER paths.

     

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    hdl: 10419/227954
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 071
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 12 Seiten)
  5. Inequality and gender economic inclusion
    the moderating role of financial access in sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study assesses how financial access can be used to modulate the effect of income inequality on gender economic inclusion. The focus is on 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2004-2014 and the empirical evidence is based on... more

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    This study assesses how financial access can be used to modulate the effect of income inequality on gender economic inclusion. The focus is on 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for the period 2004-2014 and the empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Fixed Effects (FE) regressions. Significant results are not apparent in the FE regressions. The following main findings are established from the GMM estimations. There is a negative net effect from the role of financial access in modulating the effect of the Palma ratio on female labour force participation while there is a positive net effect from the relevance of financial access in moderating the effect of the Gini coefficient on female unemployment. There are also net negative effects from the role of financial access in modulating the Gini coefficient and the Palma ratio for female employment. The unexpected findings are elucidated and implications are discussed in the light of challenges to Sustainable Development Goals in the sub-region. Inter alia: financial access is a necessary but not a sufficient moderator of income inequality for the enhancement of women's participation in the formal economic sector.

     

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    hdl: 10419/227977
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 099
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  6. On the simultaneous openness hypothesis
    FDI, trade and TFP dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study assesses the simultaneous openness hypothesis that trade modulates foreign direct investment (FDI) to induce positive net effects on total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics. Twenty-five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and data for the... more

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    This study assesses the simultaneous openness hypothesis that trade modulates foreign direct investment (FDI) to induce positive net effects on total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics. Twenty-five countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and data for the period 1980 to 2014 are used. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. First, trade imports modulate FDI to overwhelmingly induce positive net effects on TFP, real TFP growth, welfare TFP and real welfare TFP. Second, with exceptions on TFP and welfare TFP where net effects are both positive and negative, trade exports modulate FDI to overwhelmingly induce positive net effects on real TFP growth and welfare real TFP. In summary, the tested hypothesis is valid for the most part. Policy implications are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/227979
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 001
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten)
  7. The comparative African regional economics of globalization in financial allocation efficiency
    pre-crisis era revisited
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    The study assesses the role of globalization-fuelled regionalization policies on financial allocation efficiency in four economic and monetary regions in Africa for the period 1980 to 2008. Banking system and financial system efficiency proxies are... more

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    The study assesses the role of globalization-fuelled regionalization policies on financial allocation efficiency in four economic and monetary regions in Africa for the period 1980 to 2008. Banking system and financial system efficiency proxies are used as dependent variables whereas seven bundled and unbundled globalization variables are employed as independent indicators. The bundling exercise is achieved by means of principal component analysis while the empirical evidence is based on interactive Fixed Effects regressions. The following findings are established. First, financial allocation efficiency is more sensitive to financial openness compared to trade openness and most sensitive to globalization. The relationship between allocation efficiency and globalization-fuelled regionalization policies is: (i) Kuznets or inverted U-shape in the UEMOA and CEMAC zones (evidence of decreasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization) and (ii) U-shape overwhelmingly in the COMESA and scantily in the EAC (increasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization). Established shapes are relevant to specific globalization dynamics within regions. Economic and monetary regions are more prone to surplus liquidity than purely economic regions. Policy implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/227963
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 085
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 46 Seiten)
  8. Contemporary drivers of global tourism
    evidence from terrorism and peace factors
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study examines the effect of terrorism and peace on tourist destination arrivals using a panel of 163 countries with data for the period 2010 to 2015. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and Negative Binomial (NB)... more

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    This study examines the effect of terrorism and peace on tourist destination arrivals using a panel of 163 countries with data for the period 2010 to 2015. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments and Negative Binomial (NB) regressions. Our best estimators are from NB regressions from which the following main findings are established. First, political instability, violent demonstrations and number of homicides negatively affect tourist arrivals while the number of incarcerations positively influences the outcome variable. Second the effects from military expenditure, "armed service personnel" and "security officers and polices" are not positively significant. Managerial implications are discussed.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/204989
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/18, 046
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten)
  9. Foreign aid, instability and governance in Africa
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study contributes to the attendant literature by bundling governance dynamics and focusing on foreign aid instability instead of foreign aid. We assess the role of foreign aid instabilit y on governance dynamics in fifty three African countries... more

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    This study contributes to the attendant literature by bundling governance dynamics and focusing on foreign aid instability instead of foreign aid. We assess the role of foreign aid instabilit y on governance dynamics in fifty three African countries for the period 1996-2010. An autoregressive endogeneity-robust Generalized Method of Moments is employed. Instabilities are measured in terms of variance of the errors and standard deviations. Three main aid indicators are used, namely: total aid, aid from multilateral donors and bilateral aid. Principal Component Analysis is used to bundle governance indicators, namely: political governance (voice & accountability a nd political stability/no violence), economic governance (regulation quality and government effectiveness), institutional governance (rule of law and corruption-control) and general governance (political, economic and institutional governance). Our findings show that foreign aid instability increases governance standards, especially political and general governance. Poli cy implications are discussed.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/204974
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 022
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten)
  10. Information technology, governance and insurance in sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    Purpose -This study investigates the role of ICT in modulating the effect of governance on insurance penetration in 42 sub-Saharan African countries using data for the period 2004- 2014. Design/methodology/approach -Two insurance indicators are used... more

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    Purpose -This study investigates the role of ICT in modulating the effect of governance on insurance penetration in 42 sub-Saharan African countries using data for the period 2004- 2014. Design/methodology/approach -Two insurance indicators are used in the analysis, namely: life insurance and non-life insurance. The three ICT modulating dynamics employed include: mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and fixed broadband subscriptions. Six governance channels are also considered, namely: political stability, "voice & accountability", regulation quality, government effectiveness, the rule of law and corruption-control. The empirical evidence is based on generalized method of moments. Findings –The following main findings are established. First, mobile phone penetration does not significantly modulate governance channels to positively affect life insurance while it effectively complements "voice & accountability" to induce a positive net effect on non-life insurance. Second, internet penetration complements: (i) governance dynamics of political stability, government effectiveness and rule of law to induce positive net effects on life insurance: and (ii) corruption-control for an overall positive effect on non-life insurance. Third, the relevance of fixed broadband subscriptions in promoting life insurance is apparent via governance channels of regulation quality, government effectiveness and the rule of law while fixed broadband subscriptions do not induce significant overall net effects on non-life insurance though the conditional effects are overwhelmingly significant. Orginality/value - To the best our knowledge, studies on the relevance of ICT in promoting insurance consumption through governance channels are sparse, especially for a region such as sub-Saharan Africa where insurance penetration is low compared to other regions of the world.

     

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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/205013
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 043
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten)
  11. Linkages between globalisation, carbon dioxide emissions and governance in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study investigates linkages between environmental degradation, globalisation and governance in 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using data for the period 2000-2012. The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as empirical strategy.... more

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    This study investigates linkages between environmental degradation, globalisation and governance in 44 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using data for the period 2000-2012. The Generalised Method of Moments is employed as empirical strategy. Environmental degradation is proxied by carbon dioxide emissions whereas globalisation is appreciated in terms of trade openness and net foreign direct investment inflows. Bundled and unbundled governance indicators are used, namely: political governance (consisting of political stability/no violence and "voice & accountability"), economic governance (encompassing government effectiveness and regulation quality), institutional governance (entailing corruption-control and the rule of law) and general governance (a composite measurement of political governance, economic governance and institutional governance). The following main finding is established. Trade openness modulates carbon dioxide emissions to have positive net effects on political stability, economic governance, the rule of law and general governance.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
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    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/205021
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 051
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 26 Seiten)
  12. Market power and cost efficiency in the African banking industry
    Published: [2019]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    Purpose- In this study, we test the so-called 'Quiet Life Hypothesis' (QLH) which postulates that banks with market power are less efficient. Design/methodology/approach- We employ instrumental variable Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Tobit... more

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    Purpose- In this study, we test the so-called 'Quiet Life Hypothesis' (QLH) which postulates that banks with market power are less efficient. Design/methodology/approach- We employ instrumental variable Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Tobit and Logistic regressions. The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 162 banks consisting of 42 African countries for the period 2001-2011. There is a two-step analytical procedure. First, we estimate Lerner indices and cost efficiency scores. Then, we regress cost efficiency scores on Lerner indices contingent on bank characteristics, market features and the unobserved heterogeneity. Findings- The empirical evidence does not support the QLH because market power is positively associated with cost efficiency. Originality/value- Owing to data availability constraints, this is one of the few studies to test the QLH in African banking.

     

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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227958
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/19, 080
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 24 Seiten)
  13. Mobile money innovations and health performance in sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study assesses nexuses between mobile money innovations and health performance in terms of total life expectancy in 43 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa employing data for the period 2004-2018. Four mobile money innovation dynamics are proxied... more

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    This study assesses nexuses between mobile money innovations and health performance in terms of total life expectancy in 43 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa employing data for the period 2004-2018. Four mobile money innovation dynamics are proxied with registered mobile money agents and active mobile money agents. The empirical evidence is based on quantile regressions. The findings overwhelmingly show that mobile money innovations are relevant in improving health performance or total life expectancy exclusively in bottom quantiles of the conditional distribution of total life expectancy. In other words, countries with below-median levels of total life expectancy are more susceptible to benefit from mobile money innovations compared to countries with above-median levels of total life expectancy. It follows that common or general policy measures on the linkage between mobile money innovations and health performance are unlikely to succeed unless attendant policies are contingent on initial levels of health performance and hence, tailored differently across countries with various initial levels of health performance. More policy implications are discussed.

     

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    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/23, 038
    Subjects: Mobile phones; financial inclusion; health; sub-Saharan Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  14. Law, political stability, tourism management and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study complements the extant literature by assessing how the rule of law and political stability modulate tourism development dynamics (i.e. tourism receipts and tourism expenditure) to affect economic development in terms of gross domestic... more

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    This study complements the extant literature by assessing how the rule of law and political stability modulate tourism development dynamics (i.e. tourism receipts and tourism expenditure) to affect economic development in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The study focuses on 47 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with data for the period 2002 to 2018 and the empirical evidence is based on the Generalized Method of Moments. The study finds that: (i) the rule of law modulates both tourism receipts and tourism expenditure for overall positive effects on economic development and (ii) political stability modulates tourism receipts for an overall positive impact on economic development. Policy implications are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/269045
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/22, 038
    Subjects: Tourism Management; Economic Growth; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten)
  15. African Women Vulnerability Index
    focus on rural women
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    In this paper, we develop a new index labelled the African Women Vulnerability Index (AWVI) with a focus on rural women using Round 7 of the Afrobarometer Survey. The AWVI comprises 59 indicators in six dimensions namely: safety, empowerment, health,... more

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    In this paper, we develop a new index labelled the African Women Vulnerability Index (AWVI) with a focus on rural women using Round 7 of the Afrobarometer Survey. The AWVI comprises 59 indicators in six dimensions namely: safety, empowerment, health, education, economic prosperity and digitalisation. Our findings show that: (i) Botswana performs best while women in Guinea and Sudan are the most vulnerable. Indeed, Mauritius appears as a good example in some dimensions such as health and digitalisation. (ii) Except for the dimension of digitalisation, rural women's vulnerabilities in other dimensions are very close to those at the national level. (iii) National vulnerability trends strongly explain rural women's vulnerability especially for the economic, empowerment and health dimensions.

     

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    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/23, 003
    Subjects: Index creation; gender; rural analysis; Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. Covid-19 economic vulnerability and resilience indexes
    global evidence
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    The study complements the extant literature by constructing Covid-19 economic vulnerability and resilience indexes using a global sample of 150 countries which are categorized into four principal regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle... more

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    The study complements the extant literature by constructing Covid-19 economic vulnerability and resilience indexes using a global sample of 150 countries which are categorized into four principal regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. Seven variables are used for the vulnerability index and nine for the resilience index. Both regions and sampled countries are classified in terms of the two proposed and computed indexes. The classification of countries is also provided in terms of four scenarios pertaining to vulnerability and resilience characteristics, notably: low vulnerability-low resilience, high vulnerability-low resilience, high vulnerability-high resilience and low vulnerability-high resilience to respectively illustrate, sensitive, severe, asymptomatic and best cases. The findings are relevant to policy makers especially as it pertains to decision making in resources allocation in the fight against the global pandemic.

     

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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228047
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 070
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 19 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Governance and the capital flight trap in Africa
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    The study examines the use of governance tools to fight capital flight by reducing the capital flight trap. Two overarching policy syndromes are addressed in the study. It first assesses whether governance is an effective deterrent to the capital... more

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    The study examines the use of governance tools to fight capital flight by reducing the capital flight trap. Two overarching policy syndromes are addressed in the study. It first assesses whether governance is an effective deterrent to the capital flight trap in Africa, before examining what thresholds of government quality are required to fight the capital flight trap in the continent. The following findings are established. Evidence of a capital flight trap is apparent because past values of capital flight have a positive effect on future values of capital flight. The net effects from interactions of the capital flight trap with political stability, regulation quality, economic governance and corruption-control on capital flight are positive. The critical masses at which "voice & accountability" and regulation quality can complement the capital flight trap to reduce capital flight are respectively, 0.120 and 0.680, which correspond to the best performing countries. Policy implications are discussed.

     

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    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228002
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 024
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten)
  18. Inclusive human development in sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study assesses the role of income levels (low and middle) in modulating governance (political and economic) to influence inclusive human development. The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions and forty-nine countries in... more

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    This study assesses the role of income levels (low and middle) in modulating governance (political and economic) to influence inclusive human development. The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions and forty-nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2002.The following main findings are established. First, low income modulates governance (economic and political) to positively affect inclusive human development exclusively in countries with above-median levels of inclusive human development. It follows that countries with averagely higher levels of inclusive human development are more likely to benefit from the relevance of income levels in influencing governance for inclusive development. Second, the importance of middle income in modulating political governance to positively affect inclusive human is apparent exclusively in the median while the relevance of middle income in moderating economic governance to positively influence inclusive human development is significantly apparent in the 10th and 75th quantiles. Third, regardless of panels, income levels modulate economic governance to affect inclusive human development at a higher magnitude, compared to political governance. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the post-2015 agenda of sustainable development goals and contemporary development paradigms. This study complements the extant sparse literature on the inclusive human development in Africa.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/227992
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 014
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  19. Inclusive education for inclusive economic participation
    the financial access channel
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    Purpose - The study assesses how inclusive education affects inclusive economic participation through the financial access channel. Design/methodology/approach - The focus is on 42 sub-Saharan African countries with data for the period 2004-2014. The... more

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    Purpose - The study assesses how inclusive education affects inclusive economic participation through the financial access channel. Design/methodology/approach - The focus is on 42 sub-Saharan African countries with data for the period 2004-2014. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. Findings - The following findings are established. First, inclusive secondary education moderates financial access to exert a positive net effect on female labour force participation. Second, inclusive "primary and secondary school education" and inclusive tertiary education modulate financial access for a negative net effect on female unemployment. Third, inclusive secondary education and inclusive tertiary education both moderate financial access for an overall positive net effect on female employment. In order to provide more gender macroeconomic management policy options, inclusive education thresholds for complementary policies are provided and discussed. Originality/value - Policy implications are discussed in the light of challenges of economic development in the sub-region and Sustainable Development Goals.

     

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    Media type: Book
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    hdl: 10419/227997
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 019
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten)
  20. Volatility of international commodity prices in times of Covid-19
    effects of oil supply and global demand shocks
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study examines the effects of oil supply and global demand shocks on the volatility of commodity prices in the metal and agricultural commodity markets using the SVAR model. The empirical evidence is based on real time daily closing... more

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    This study examines the effects of oil supply and global demand shocks on the volatility of commodity prices in the metal and agricultural commodity markets using the SVAR model. The empirical evidence is based on real time daily closing international commodity prices covering the period 2 December 2019 to 1 October 2020. The findings are presented in cumulative impulse responses and variance decompositions. The former is utilized to examine the accumulated influence of structural shocks on the volatility of agricultural and metal commodities whereas the latter reflect the share of variation in the volatility of each commodity arising from each structural shock. Various patterns are provided on how metal and agricultural commodity prices have been influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Policy implications are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/244173
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 101
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Not all that glitters is gold
    political stability and trade in Sub-Saharan Africa
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative... more

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    This study examines linkages between political stability and trade openness dynamics in a panel of 44 countries in SSA from 1996 to 2016. The empirical evidence is based on the generalized method of moments. From the findings, the negative relationship between political stability and merchandise trade is not significant while the negative relationship between political stability and trade openness (exports plus imports) is significant. Hence, the findings do not validate the tested hypothesis that political stability/no violence increases trade in the sub-region. The perspective that some forms of political stability can slow down and prevent international trade is consistent with Oslon in Rise and Decline of Nations (RADON) and recent contributions to the economic development literature which have shown that not all forms of political stability are development friendly because much depends on the extent to which stability translates into, inter alia, good governance. The principal policy implication is that standards of political governance need to be boosted in order to improve the anticipated effects of political stability on trade, especially in the light of the ambitious African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Other policy implications are discussed.

     

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    hdl: 10419/244180
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/21, 005
    Subjects: Political Stability; Trade; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 22 Seiten)
  22. A bad turn deserves another
    linkages between terrorism, capital flight and industrialisation
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study examines how the association between terrorism and capital flight affects the process of industrialisationin 36 African countries. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Quantile Regressions (QR).... more

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    This study examines how the association between terrorism and capital flight affects the process of industrialisationin 36 African countries. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Quantile Regressions (QR). GMM-oriented findings show that capital flight interacts with terrorism to negatively affect industrialisation in 'domestic terrorism'- and 'total terrorism'-oriented regressions. With QR approach, the GMM results are confirmed exclusively in the 25th and 50th quantiles, in regressions pertaining to domestic terrorism, unclear terrorism and total terrorism. It follows that the negative effect from the investigated interaction is driven by bottom quantiles of the industrialisation distribution. This confirms existing literature that developed countries are more likely to limit the negative externalities from terrorism compared to their developing counterparts. Hence, the negative consequence of the association between terrorism and capital flight on industrialisation is a decreasing function of industrialisation.

     

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    hdl: 10419/244186
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/21, 011
    Subjects: Capital flight; terrorism; industrialisation; Africa
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 23 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. The openness hypothesis in the context of economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa
    the moderating role of trade dynamics on FDI
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    This study investigates the simultaneous openness hypothesis by assessing the importance of trade openness in modulating the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per... more

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    This study investigates the simultaneous openness hypothesis by assessing the importance of trade openness in modulating the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, real GDP and GDP per capita. The focus of the study is on 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa over the period spanning from 1980 to 2014. First, trade imports modulate FDI to induce net positive effects on GDP growth and GDP per capita. Second, trade exports moderate FDI to generate overall positive impacts on GDP growth, real GDP and GDP per capita. Implications of the study are discussed, inter alia: (i) both FDI and trade infrastructures are necessary for FDI-focused measures to engender positive economic development outcomes in host communities and countries. (ii) Macroeconomic conditions that are relevant for promoting economic development are necessary for the interactions between trade openness and FDI to generate favorable outcomes in terms of GDP growth, real GDP and GDP per capita.

     

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    hdl: 10419/228033
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 056
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 27 Seiten)
  24. Finance, Institutions and Private Investment in Africa
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    The study extends the debate on finance versus institutions and measurement of property rights institutions. We assess the relationships between various components of property rights institutions and private investment, notably: political, economic... more

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    The study extends the debate on finance versus institutions and measurement of property rights institutions. We assess the relationships between various components of property rights institutions and private investment, notably: political, economic and institutional governances. Comparative concurrent relationships of financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size are also investigated. The findings provide support for the quality of institutions as a better positive correlate of private investment than financial intermediary development. The interaction of finance and governance is not significant in potentially promoting private investment, perhaps due to substantially documented surplus liquidity issues in African financial institutions. The empirical evidence is based on 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. Policy measures are discussed for reducing financial deposits, increasing financial activity and hence, improving financial efficiency.

     

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    hdl: 10419/228057
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 080
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten)
  25. Health vulnerability versus economic resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic
    global evidence
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  African Governance and Development Institute, [Yaoundé]

    The purpose of this study is to understand how countries have leveraged on their economic resilience to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. The focus is on a global sample of 150 countries divided into four main regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the... more

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    The purpose of this study is to understand how countries have leveraged on their economic resilience to fight the Covid-19 pandemic. The focus is on a global sample of 150 countries divided into four main regions, namely: Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, America and Europe. The study develops a health vulnerability index (HVI) and leverages on an existing economic resilience index (ERI) to provide four main scenarios from which to understand the problem statement, namely: 'low HVI-low ERI', 'high HVI-low ERI', 'high HVI-high ERI' and 'low HVI-high ERI' quadrants. It is assumed that countries that have robustly fought the pandemic are those in the 'low HVI-high ERI' quadrant and to a less extent, countries in the 'low HVI-low ERI' quadrant. Most European countries, one African country (i.e. Rwanda), four Asian countries (Japan, China, South Korea and Thailand) and six American countries (USA, Canada, Uruguay, Panama, Argentina and Costa Rica) are apparent in the ideal quadrant.

     

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    hdl: 10419/228051
    Series: AGDI working paper ; WP/20, 074
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 15 Seiten), Illustrationen