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  1. The People's Republic of China's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model
    Author: Felipe, Jesus; Lanzafame, Matteo
    Published: 2018
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    The People's Republic of China's (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the... more

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    The People's Republic of China's (PRC) remarkable growth performance over the last 3 decades has been associated to very robust export growth, so much so that many refer to it as a clear example of export-led growth (ELG). Using the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium (BOPE) growth rate, which provides a framework to test the ELG hypothesis, we show that the PRC's actual long-run growth is well approximated by its BOPE growth rate. This growth rate is given by the ratio of the growth rate of exports to the income elasticity of imports. We estimate the latter using the Kalman filter, which allows us to obtain a time-varying estimate of the PRC's BOPE growth rate. We find that the average value of the PRC's BOPE growth rate during 1981-2016 was 11%, but it varied significantly over time and declined notably after 2007. Today, it is estimated at a much lower 5.9%. We then discuss the determinants of the PRC's BOPE growth rate and of the income elasticity of imports, with the help of the Bayesian model averaging technique. The analysis highlights the role of the composition of aggregate demand as the main driving force, both for its direct effects on the income elasticity of imports, and for the indirect effects on export growth via capital accumulation, in particular fixed asset investment. Our analysis has important implications to understand the PRC's transition to a "New Normal" of a lower growth rate.

     
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    46
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/203395
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 555 (August 2018)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The People's Republic of China's potential growth rate
    the long-run constraints
    Author: Felipe, Jesus; Lanzafame, Matteo; Zhuang, Juzhong
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

    We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the... more

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    We estimate the People's Republic of China's (PRC's potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC's natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC's potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC's potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/128529
    hdl: 11540/4214
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; 418
    Subjects: Zahlungsbilanz; Wirtschaftswachstum; Zustandsraummodell; Produktionspotenzial; Okunsches Gesetz; China
    Scope: Online-Ressource (41 S.)
  3. The declining share of agricultural employment in the People's Republic of China
    how fast?
    Author: Felipe, Jesus; Dacuycuy, Connie; Lanzafame, Matteo
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines

    From 1962 to 2013, the People's Republic of China's (PRC's)agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC's aspirations to progress and eventually... more

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    From 1962 to 2013, the People's Republic of China's (PRC's)agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC's aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added, foreign direct investment, and domestic credit. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to test the strong exogeneity of the regressors so that we can use it for forecasting. Results indicate that the share of employment in agriculture in the PRC will decline to about 24% by 2020, the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020). We also estimate that the PRC's employment share will reach 5%, the share observed in today's rich economies, by 2042-2048.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/128527
    hdl: 11540/4215
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; 419
    Subjects: Landwirtschaft; Arbeitskräfte; Strukturwandel; China
    Scope: Online-Ressource (24 S.)
  4. The pillars of potential growth and the role of policy
    a panel data approach
    Author: Lanzafame, Matteo; Felipe, Jesus; Sotocinal, Noli; Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    Potential output growth generally decelerated after the global financial crisis during 2008-2009. This paper examines the possible determinants of potential output growth using Bayesian Model Averaging and assesses how the determinants can be used to... more

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    Potential output growth generally decelerated after the global financial crisis during 2008-2009. This paper examines the possible determinants of potential output growth using Bayesian Model Averaging and assesses how the determinants can be used to increase the growth of potential output. It finds that the long-term growth of working-age population, the tertiary level gross enrollment ratio, the technology gap with the United States (US), labor market rigidity, trade openness, financial integration and the quality of institutions robustly affect potential output growth. Using Harrod’s definition of potential output growth as the sum of the long-run growth rates of the labor force and labor productivity, we find that the trend growth rate of working-age population is a good proxy variable for long-run labor force growth. Under this definition, the other determinants affect potential output growth through their impact on the growth of labor productivity. The paper finds support for the hypotheses that tertiary enrollment and trade openness affects potential output growth nonlinearly. It also finds that trade openness and tertiary enrollment have nonlinear effects on potential output growth, and that the technology gap with the US and financial integration have statistically significant interaction effects on potential output growth. Results suggest that reforms aimed at reducing the technology gap with the US and increasing the extent of financial integration have lower impact on countries with high-quality institutions.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 482 (May 2016)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Demography, growth, and robots in advanced and emerging economies
    Author: Gravina, Antonio Francesco; Lanzafame, Matteo
    Published: 2023
    Publisher:  Asian Development Bank, Metro Manila, Philippines

    This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population... more

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    This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significant negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels-including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population aging has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects of unfavorable demographic change-in particular, population aging-on labor productivity growth.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: ADB economics working paper series ; no. 701 (November 2023)
    Subjects: demographic change; labor productivity; robots
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 36 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies
    Author: Lanzafame, Matteo
    Published: December 2021
    Publisher:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel f 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares... more

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    This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel f 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels - including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects unfavorable demographic change - in particular, population aging-on labor productivity.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/249965
    Series: Working paper / Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei ; 2021, 030
    Subjects: Demographic Change; Labor Productivity; Robots
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 45 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies
    Author: Lanzafame, Matteo
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  EERI, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute, Brussels, Belgium

    This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population... more

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    This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel of 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels - including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects of unfavorable demographic change - in particular, population aging - on labor productivity growth.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/273047
    Series: EERI research paper series ; no 2022, 03
    Subjects: Demographic change; labor productivity; robots
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Nonlinearities and the determinants of iInequality: new panel evidence
    Author: Gravina, Antonio Francesco; Lanzafame, Matteo
    Published: November 2020
    Publisher:  Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italia

    Relying on data for a panel of 90 economies over 1970-2015 and System-GMM estimates, we extend the standard Kuznets-curve empirical framework to investigate how financial development, globalisation and technology affect income inequality. Our... more

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    Relying on data for a panel of 90 economies over 1970-2015 and System-GMM estimates, we extend the standard Kuznets-curve empirical framework to investigate how financial development, globalisation and technology affect income inequality. Our findings reveal the presence of significant nonlinearities, consistent with either U-shaped or inverted Ushaped relationships. As such, depending on whether a certain threshold value is achieved, the same determinants of income distribution can exert opposite effects in different countries. Globalisation is associated to increasing inequality in most advanced economies, but to falling disparities for the large majority of emerging economies. Further, while the effects for advanced economies are mixed, technology and financial development lead to increasing inequality for most emerging economies. Hence, particularly in countries in earlier stages of development, policymakers aiming at fostering growth via technological progress or financial development should also consider the nature of the trade-offs with inequality and how policy can improve them.

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228798
    Series: Array ; 2020, 022
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen