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  1. Deconstructing monetary policy surprises
    the role of information shocks
    Published: 02 March 2018
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (12765)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Array ; DP 12765
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Ankündigungseffekt; Zentralbank; Wirtschaftsprognose; Neoklassische Synthese; VAR-Modell
    Scope: 59 Seiten, Illustrationen
    Notes:

    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe

  2. The New Area-Wide Model II
    an extended version of the ECB's micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the... more

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    This paper provides a detailed description of an extended version of the ECB's New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) of the euro area (cf. Christoffel, Coenen, and Warne 2008). The extended model - called NAWM II - incorporates a rich financial sector with the threefold aim of (i) accounting for a genuine role of financial frictions in the propagation of economic shocks and policies and for the presence of shocks originating in the financial sector itself, (ii) capturing the prominent role of bank lending rates and the gradual interest-rate pass-through in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area, and (iii) providing a structural framework useable for assessing the macroeconomic impact of the ECB's large-scale asset purchases conducted in recent years. In addition, NAWM II includes a number of other extensions of the original model reflecting its practical uses in the policy process over the past ten years.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289933056
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/208234
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2200 (November 2018)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 136 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Macroprudential policy measures
    macroeconomic impact and interaction with monetary policy

    This paper examines the interactions of macroprudential and monetary policies. We find, using a range of macroeconomic models used at the European Central Bank, that in the long run, a 1% bank capital requirement increase has a small impact on GDP.... more

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    This paper examines the interactions of macroprudential and monetary policies. We find, using a range of macroeconomic models used at the European Central Bank, that in the long run, a 1% bank capital requirement increase has a small impact on GDP. In the short run, GDP declines by 0.15-0.35%. Under a stronger monetary policy reaction, the impact falls to 0.05-0.25%. The paper also examines how capital requirements and the conduct of macroprudential policy affect the monetary transmission mechanism. Higher bank leverage increases the economy's vulnerability to shocks but also monetary policy's ability to offset them. Macroprudential policy diminishes the frequency and severity of financial crises thus eliminating the need for extremely low interest rates. Counter-cyclical capital measures reduce the neutral real interest rate in normal times.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289940191
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/228990
    Series: Array ; no 2376 (February 2020)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 65 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Price adjustment in the euro area in the low-inflation period
    evidence from consumer and producer micro price data

    This paper documents five stylised facts relating to price adjustment in the euro area, using various micro price datasets collected in a period with relatively low and stable inflation. First, price changes are infrequent in the core sectors. On... more

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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 535
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    This paper documents five stylised facts relating to price adjustment in the euro area, using various micro price datasets collected in a period with relatively low and stable inflation. First, price changes are infrequent in the core sectors. On average, 12% of consumer prices change each month, falling to 8.5% when sales prices are excluded. The frequency of producer price adjustment is greater (25%), reflecting that the prices of intermediate goods and energy are more flexible. For both consumer and producer prices, cross-sectoral heterogeneity is more pronounced than cross-country heterogeneity. Second, price changes tend to be large and heterogeneous. For consumer prices, the typical absolute price change is about 10%, and the distribution of price changes shows a broad dispersion. For producer prices, the typical absolute price change is smaller, but nevertheless larger than inflation. Third, price setting is mildly state-dependent: the probability of price adjustment rises with the size of price misalignment, mainly reflecting idiosyncratic shocks, but it does not increase very sharply. Fourth, for both consumer and producer prices, the repricing rate showed no trend in the period 2005-19 but was more volatile in the short run. Fifth, small cyclical variations in frequency did not contribute much to fluctuations in aggregate inflation, which instead mainly reflected shifts in the average size of price changes. Consistent with idiosyncratic shocks as the main driver of price changes, aggregate disturbances affected inflation by shifting the relative number of firms increasing or decreasing their prices, rather than the size of price increases and decreases.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289960632
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278585
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 319
    Subjects: price stickiness; consumer prices; producer prices; scanner data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Price setting during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

    The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a deep recession globally, as well as in the euro area, accompanied by a steep decline in inflation rates in 2020. This paper reviews some of the main challenges created by the pandemic for inflation... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 535
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    The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a deep recession globally, as well as in the euro area, accompanied by a steep decline in inflation rates in 2020. This paper reviews some of the main challenges created by the pandemic for inflation measurement and provides micro price data analysis of how price setting has reacted to the strong COVID-19 shock. For this purpose, we use three different, but complementary, microdata sources for specific countries and sectors: micro price data underlying the official consumer price indices in Germany, Italy, Latvia and Slovakia; (scanner) data from German and Italian supermarkets; and online (webscraped) prices for Poland. A common finding of the micro price studies in this paper is that state dependence significantly contributed to the price-setting response to the COVID-19 shock. Nevertheless, the extent and degree of responses varies widely by sector and even country, also depending on the severity of the pandemic situation.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289961530
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278590
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 324
    Subjects: price rigidity; inflation; consumer prices; heterogeneity; microdata,COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Price setting on the two sides of the atlantic
    evidence from supermarket-scanner data
    Published: 28 April 2023
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Verlag (lizenzpflichtig)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    LZ 161
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP18126
    Subjects: food inflation; Covid-19; State-dependent pricing; Generalized hazard function; Duration hazard function; US and euro-area comparison
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Price adjustment in the euro area in the low-inflation period
    evidence from consumer and producer micro price data

    This paper documents five stylised facts relating to price adjustment in the euro area, using various micro price datasets collected in a period with relatively low and stable inflation. First, price changes are infrequent in the core sectors. On... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    This paper documents five stylised facts relating to price adjustment in the euro area, using various micro price datasets collected in a period with relatively low and stable inflation. First, price changes are infrequent in the core sectors. On average, 12% of consumer prices change each month, falling to 8.5% when sales prices are excluded. The frequency of producer price adjustment is greater (25%), reflecting that the prices of intermediate goods and energy are more flexible. For both consumer and producer prices, cross-sectoral heterogeneity is more pronounced than cross-country heterogeneity. Second, price changes tend to be large and heterogeneous. For consumer prices, the typical absolute price change is about 10%, and the distribution of price changes shows a broad dispersion. For producer prices, the typical absolute price change is smaller, but nevertheless larger than inflation. Third, price setting is mildly state-dependent: the probability of price adjustment rises with the size of price misalignment, mainly reflecting idiosyncratic shocks, but it does not increase very sharply. Fourth, for both consumer and producer prices, the repricing rate showed no trend in the period 2005-19 but was more volatile in the short run. Fifth, small cyclical variations in frequency did not contribute much to fluctuations in aggregate inflation, which instead mainly reflected shifts in the average size of price changes. Consistent with idiosyncratic shocks as the main driver of price changes, aggregate disturbances affected inflation by shifting the relative number of firms increasing or decreasing their prices, rather than the size of price increases and decreases.

     

    Export to reference management software   RIS file
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289960632
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278585
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 319
    Subjects: price stickiness; consumer prices; producer prices; scanner data
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Price setting during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic

    The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a deep recession globally, as well as in the euro area, accompanied by a steep decline in inflation rates in 2020. This paper reviews some of the main challenges created by the pandemic for inflation... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused a deep recession globally, as well as in the euro area, accompanied by a steep decline in inflation rates in 2020. This paper reviews some of the main challenges created by the pandemic for inflation measurement and provides micro price data analysis of how price setting has reacted to the strong COVID-19 shock. For this purpose, we use three different, but complementary, microdata sources for specific countries and sectors: micro price data underlying the official consumer price indices in Germany, Italy, Latvia and Slovakia; (scanner) data from German and Italian supermarkets; and online (webscraped) prices for Poland. A common finding of the micro price studies in this paper is that state dependence significantly contributed to the price-setting response to the COVID-19 shock. Nevertheless, the extent and degree of responses varies widely by sector and even country, also depending on the severity of the pandemic situation.

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289961530
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/278590
    Series: Occasional paper series / European Central Bank ; no 324
    Subjects: price rigidity; inflation; consumer prices; heterogeneity; microdata,COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (78 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Monetary policy surprises, credit costs and economic activity
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (9824)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Array ; 9824
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Schock; Geldpolitische Transmission; Zinsstruktur; Kapitalkosten; Konjunktur; Inflation; Schätzung; USA
    Scope: 47 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen

  10. Monetary policy surprises, credit costs and economic activity
    Published: 2014

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 1 (20224)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: NBER working paper series ; 20224
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Schock; Geldpolitische Transmission; Zinsstruktur; Kapitalkosten; Konjunktur; Inflation; Schätzung; USA
    Scope: 50 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen

  11. The ECB's asset purchase programme
    an early assessment
    Published: 09 Sep 2016
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534 (1956)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289922043
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/154389
    Series: Array ; no 1956 (September 2016)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Effectiveness and addictiveness of quantitative easing
    Published: 27 June 2020
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    LZ 161
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    Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: Array ; DP14951
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 40 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The Phillips curve at the ECB
    Published: [2020]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534
    No inter-library loan

     

    We explain the role of the Phillips Curve in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy at the ECB. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the reduced-form Phillips Curve to the (semi-)structural models used at the ECB. Second, we identify the slope of the structural Phillips Curve by exploiting cross-country variation and by using high-frequency monetary policy surprises as instruments. Third, we present reduced-form evidence, focusing on the relation between slack and in ation and the role of in ation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of in ation, we discuss the role of firm profits in the pass-through from wages to prices and the contribution of external factors. Overall, the available evidence supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of in ation expectations remain central to successful in ation stabilisation.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289940436
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/229014
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2400 (May 2020)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. Deconstructing monetary policy surprises
    the role of information shocks
    Published: [2018]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural... more

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534 (2133)
    No inter-library loan

     

    Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency comovement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complementary positive central bank information shock raises both. These two shocks have intuitive and very different effects on the economy. Ignoring the central bank information shocks biases the inference on monetary policy non-neutrality. We make this point formally and offer an interpretation of the central bank information shock using a New Keynesian macroeconomic model with financial frictions.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289932387
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/179348
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2133 (February 2018)
    Subjects: Geldpolitik; Ankündigungseffekt; Zentralbank; Wirtschaftsprognose; Neoklassische Synthese; VAR-Modell
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 69 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Measuring price selection in microdata
    it's not there
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a... more

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
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    DS 534
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    We use microdata to estimate the strength of price selection - a key metric for the effect of monetary policy on the real economy. We propose a product-level proxy for mispricing and assess whether products with larger mispricing respond with a higher probability to identified monetary and credit shocks. We find that they do not, suggesting selection is absent. Instead, we detect state-dependent adjustment on the gross extensive margin. Our results are broadly consistent with second-generation state-dependent pricing models and sizable effects of monetary policy on the real economy.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289947527
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/237705
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2566 (June 2021)
    Subjects: monetary non-neutrality; state-dependent pricing; identified credit and monetary policy shocks; price-gap proxy; scanner data; PPI microdata
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The Phillips Curve at the ECB
    Published: March 1, 2020
    Publisher:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    We explain the role of the Phillips Curve at the ECB in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DSM 13
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    We explain the role of the Phillips Curve at the ECB in the analysis of the economic outlook and the formulation of monetary policy. First, revisiting the structural Phillips Curve, we highlight the challenges in recovering structural parameters from reduced-form estimates and relate the reduced-form Phillips Curve to (semi-)structural models used at the ECB for policy analysis. Second, we identify the slope of the structural Phillips Curve following two approaches: one that exploits cross-country variation and the other using high-frequency monetary policy surprises as external instruments. Third, we present reduced-form evidence based on thick-modelling and dynamic model averaging techniques, focusing on the relation between slack and in ation and the role of in ation expectations. In relation to the recent weakness of in ation, we discuss the role of firm profits in the pass-through from wages to prices and the contribution of external factors. Overall, the available evidence supports the view that the absorption of slack and a firm anchoring of in ation expectations remain central to successful in ation stabilisation.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224627
    Series: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 99
    Subjects: Ination; Phillips Curve; Monetary Policy; European Central Bank
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 55 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Price setting on the two sides of the Atlantic
    evidence from supermarket-scanner data
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

    We compare supermarket price setting in the US and the euro area and assess its impact on food inflation. We introduce a novel scanner dataset of Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Italy (EA4) and contrast it with an equivalent dataset from the... more

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We compare supermarket price setting in the US and the euro area and assess its impact on food inflation. We introduce a novel scanner dataset of Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Italy (EA4) and contrast it with an equivalent dataset from the US. We find that both higher frequency and stronger state dependence of price changes contribute to higher flexibility of supermarket inflation in the US relative to the euro area. We argue that the driving force behind both factors is higher cross-sectional volatility in the US. Larger product-level fluctuations both force retailers to adjust prices more frequently and increase price misalignments, which increase the selection of large price changes. Both facts are well represented by a mildly state-dependent price-setting model, and they jointly explain over a third of the difference in food-inflation volatility between the US and the euro area as well as around a third of the difference between the inflation responses to the COVID-19 shock in Germany and Italy.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9789289962186
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; no 2853
    Subjects: food inflation; state-dependent price setting; generalized hazard; duration hazard; US and euro-area comparison; COVID-19
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Large shocks in menu cost models
    Published: 2012
    Publisher:  European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main

    Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen
    No inter-library loan
    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
    No inter-library loan
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 534 (1453)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/153886
    Series: Working paper series / European Central Bank ; 1453
    Scope: Online-Ressource (48 S.), graph. Darst.
  19. Menu costs, aggregate fluctuations, and large shocks
    Published: 2014
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 32 (10138)
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Array ; 10138
    Subjects: Preisrigidität; Neutralität des Geldes; Anpassungskosten; Schock; Mehrproduktfertigung; Umsatzsteuer; Steuerwirkung; Ungarn
    Scope: 48 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen