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  1. Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Uhlig, Harald
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  ZEW, Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, Mannheim

    We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (Smets and Wouters, 2007) New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero... more

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    Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen
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    We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (Smets and Wouters, 2007) New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital and distortionary taxation. The posterior yields modestly positive short-run multipliers around 0.52 and modestly negative long-run multipliers around -0.42. The multiplier is sensitive to the fraction of transfers given to credit-constrained households, the duration of the zero lower bound and the capital. The stimulus results in negative welfare effects for unconstrained agents. The constrained agents gain, if they discount the future substantially. -- Fiscal Stimulus ; New Keynesian model ; liquidity trap ; zero lower bound ; fiscal multiplier "We quantify the fiscal multipliers in response to the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. We extend the benchmark Smets-Wouters (2007) New Keynesian model, allowing for credit-constrained households, the zero lower bound, government capital and distortionary taxation. The posterior yields modestly positive short-run multipliers around 0.52 and modestly negative long-run multipliers around -0.42. The multiplier is sensitive to the fraction of transfers given to credit-constrained households, the duration of the zero lower bound and the capital. The stimulus results in negative welfare effects for unconstrained agents. The constrained agents gain, if they discount the future substantially"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/45806
    Edition: This revision: May 30, 2011
    Series: Discussion paper / ZEW ; 11-037
    Subjects: Stabilisierungspolitik; Finanzpolitik; Multiplikator; Steuerprogression; Zinspolitik; Liquiditätsbeschränkung; Schätzung; USA
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 40 S., 426 KB)
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    Zsfassung in dt. Sprache
  2. Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Uhlig, Harald
    Published: 2011

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: NBER working paper series ; 17111
    Subjects: Stabilisierungspolitik; Finanzpolitik; Multiplikator; Steuerprogression; Zinspolitik; Liquiditätsbeschränkung; Schätzung; USA
    Scope: 40 S., graph. Darst.
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    Parallel als Online-Ausg. erschienen
  3. Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Uhlig, Harald
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Dep., Philadelphia, Pa.

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: Rev.
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Department ; 13,46
    Scope: Online-Ressource (49, LXIV S.), graph. Darst.
  4. Institutional convergence of CIS towards European Benchmarks
    Author: Melnykovska, Inna; Gawrich, Andrea; Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: 2008

    -- Europeanisation ; European Union ; European Neighborhood Policy ; Institutional Convergence more

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    -- Europeanisation ; European Union ; European Neighborhood Policy ; Institutional Convergence

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Contributor: Schweickert, Rainer (HerausgeberIn)
    Language: English
    Media type: Ebook
    Format: Online
    ISBN: 9788371784682
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/28710
    Series: CASE network reports ; 82
    Subjects: Institutionelle Infrastruktur; Institutioneller Wandel; Wirtschaftsintegration; Rechtsangleichung; EU-Nachbarstaaten; EU-Staaten; GUS-Staaten
    Scope: Online-Ressource, (63 S.)
  5. Identification through heterogeneity
    Author: Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan; Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: April 26, 2017
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Language: English
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    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; no. 17, 11
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 102 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. Political distribution risk and aggregate fluctuations
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.
    Published: July 25, 2017
    Publisher:  Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA

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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: PIER working paper ; 17, 016
    Subjects: Politik; Politischer Wandel; Wirkungsanalyse; Konjunktur; Bayes-Statistik; VAR-Modell; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 110 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. Political distribution risk and aggregate fluctuations
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.
    Published: 2017
    Publisher:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Series: Array ; DP 12187
    Subjects: Politik; Politischer Wandel; Wirkungsanalyse; Konjunktur; Bayes-Statistik; VAR-Modell; USA
    Scope: 109 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  8. Political distribution risk and aggregate fluctuations
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.
    Published: August 2017
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    Series: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 23647
    Subjects: Politik; Politischer Wandel; Wirkungsanalyse; Konjunktur; Bayes-Statistik; VAR-Modell; USA
    Scope: 52 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  9. Identification through heterogeneity
    Author: Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan; Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: February 2017
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich

    Set identification in Bayesian vector autoregression (VARs) is becoming increasingly popular while facing recent criticism about potentially unwanted prior dominance and underrepresented bounds of the identified set. This can lead to biased inference... more

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    Set identification in Bayesian vector autoregression (VARs) is becoming increasingly popular while facing recent criticism about potentially unwanted prior dominance and underrepresented bounds of the identified set. This can lead to biased inference even in large samples. Common estimation strategies in high dimensions or with tight restrictions can prove to be highly inefficient or even practically infeasible. We propose to include micro data on heterogeneous entities for the estimation and identification of vector autoregressions to achieve sharper inference. First, we provide conditions when imposing a simple ranking of impulse responses will sharpen inference in bivariate and trivariate VARS. Importantly, we show that this sharpening also applies to variables not subject to ranking restrictions. Second, we develop two types of inference to address recent criticism: (i) A prior-robust posterior over the bounds of the identified set and (ii) a fully Bayesian sampling algorithm that allows us to efficiently include an agnostic prior over the non-identifiable parameters. Third, we apply our methodology to US data to identify productivity news and defense spending shocks. We find that under both algorithms the bounds of the identified sets shrink substantially under heterogeneity restrictions relative to standard sign restrictions.

     
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    hdl: 10419/155601
    Series: Array ; no. 6359
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. Polarized contributions but convergent agendas
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Livshits, Igor; Wright, Mark L. J.
    Published: [2022]
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Series: Working papers / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 22, 29 (September 2022)
    Subjects: Polarization; Campaign Contributions; Agendas
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 39 Seiten), Illustrationen
  11. Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions
    Evidence from U.S. States
    Author: Carlino, Gerald A.; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Inman, Robert P.; Zarra, Nicholas
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Partisanship of state level politicians affect the impact of federal fiscal policy in the U.S. Using data from close gubernatorial elections, we find partisan differences in the marginal propensity to spend federal transfers since the early 1980's:... more

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    Partisanship of state level politicians affect the impact of federal fiscal policy in the U.S. Using data from close gubernatorial elections, we find partisan differences in the marginal propensity to spend federal transfers since the early 1980's: Republican governors spend less. A New Keynesian model of partisan states in a monetary union implies sizable aggregate income effects from these partisan differences. First, the transfer multiplier would rise by 0.60 if Republican governors were to spend as much from federal aid as do Democratic governors. Second, the observed changes in the share of Republican governors imply variation in the fiscal multiplier of 0.40. Local projection regressions support this prediction

     
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w28425
    Subjects: Politische Partei; Öffentliche Ausgaben; Multiplikator; Finanzpolitik; Föderation; Föderalismus; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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  12. Refining set-identification in VARs through independence
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Wright, Jonathan H.
    Published: [2021]
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Series: Working papers / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 21, 31 (September 2021)
    Subjects: vector-autoregression; sign restrictions; set-identification; weak identification; inde-pendent shocks; non-convex confidence set
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. Refining Set-Identification in VARs through Independence
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Wright, Jonathan H.
    Published: 2021
    Publisher:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass

    Identification in VARs has traditionally mainly relied on second moments. Some researchers have considered using higher moments as well, but there are concerns about the strength of the identification obtained in this way. In this paper, we propose... more

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    Identification in VARs has traditionally mainly relied on second moments. Some researchers have considered using higher moments as well, but there are concerns about the strength of the identification obtained in this way. In this paper, we propose refining existing identification schemes by augmenting sign restrictions with a requirement that rules out shocks whose higher moments significantly depart from independence. This approach does not assume that higher moments help with identification; it is robust to weak identification. In simulations we show that it controls coverage well, in contrast to approaches that assume that the higher moments deliver point-identification. However, it requires large sample sizes and/or considerable non-normality to reduce the width of confidence intervals by much. We consider some empirical applications. We find that it can reject many possible rotations. The resulting confidence sets for impulse responses may be non-convex, corresponding to disjoint parts of the space of rotation matrices. We show that in this case, augmenting sign and magnitude restrictions with an independence requirement can yield bigger gains

     
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    Language: English
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    Series: NBER working paper series ; no. w29316
    Subjects: Momentenmethode; VAR-Modell
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource, illustrations (black and white)
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    Hardcopy version available to institutional subscribers
  14. Bargaining shocks and aggregate fluctuations
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.
    Published: March 2020
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

    We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing bargaining power. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modifications... more

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    We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing bargaining power. To that end, we document significant changes in the capital share after large political events, such as political realignments, modifications in collective bargaining rules, or the end of dictatorships, in a sample of developed and emerging economies. These policy changes are associated with significant fluctuations in output. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks cause movements in output and unemployment. To quantify the importance of these political shocks for the U.S. as a whole, we extend an otherwise standard neoclassical growth model. We model political shocks as exogenous changes in the bargaining power of workers in a labor market with search and matching. We calibrate the model to the U.S. corporate non-financial business sector and we back out the evolution of the bargaining power of workers over time using a new methodological approach, the partial filter. We show how the estimated shocks agree with the historical narrative evidence. We document that bargaining shocks account for 28% of aggregate fluctuations and have a welfare cost of 2.4%in consumption units

     
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    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Working papers / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 20, 11 (March 2020)
    FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper ; No. 20-11
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  15. Political distribution risk and aggregate fluctuations
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.
    Published: August 2017
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; no. 17, 25
    Subjects: Politik; Politischer Wandel; Wirkungsanalyse; Konjunktur; Bayes-Statistik; VAR-Modell; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 53 Seiten), Illustrationen
  16. The role of startups for local labor markets
    Author: Carlino, Gerald A.; Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: September 2017
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; no. 17, 31
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen
  17. Accounting for the sources of macroeconomic tail risks
    Author: Atalay, Enghin; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Wang, Zhenting
    Published: February 2018
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 18, 08 (February 2018)
    Subjects: Konjunktur; Real-Business-Cycle-Theorie; Branchenentwicklung; Produktivität; Schock; Interindustrielle Verflechtung; USA
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 10 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Alternative Strategies
    how do they work? ; how might they help?
    Author: Arias, Jonas; Bodenstein, Martin; Chung, Hess; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Raffo, Andrea
    Published: August 2020
    Publisher:  Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

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    Series: Finance and economics discussion series ; 2020, 068
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 31 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Partisanship and fiscal policy in Federal Unions
    evidence from US states
    Author: Carlino, Gerald A.; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Inman, Robert P.; Zarra, Nicholas
    Published: February 23, 2020
    Publisher:  Verein für Socialpolitik, [Köln]

    In federal countries, such as the U.S., the fiscal authority consists not of one, but many governments, with state governments accounting for a sizable share of expenditures. We analyze how state partisanship of politicians affects state fiscal... more

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    In federal countries, such as the U.S., the fiscal authority consists not of one, but many governments, with state governments accounting for a sizable share of expenditures. We analyze how state partisanship of politicians affects state fiscal policy and quantify the possible macroeconomic consequences for federal fiscal policy. First, using data from close elections, we find strong partisanship effects in the marginal propensity to spend federal transfers, the so-called y-paper effect: Republican governors spend less. Second, this partisan difference has increased over time and is correlated with the political polarization of federal policymakers. Third, we calibrate a two-agent New Keynesian model of Republican and Democratic states in an open economy monetary union, calibrated to deliver defense spending multipliers as in the literature. Lowering back partisan differences to the less-polarized pre-Reagan era would increase the transfer multiplier by about 30 cents per dollar, and variation in governor's partisan composition similarly lead to variation in the multiplier of around to 20 cents. Fourth, we provide direct support for the structural model's partisan predictions using local-projection methods.

     
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    hdl: 10419/224550
    Series: Jahrestagung 2020 / Verein für Socialpolitik ; 11
    Subjects: partisanship; ypaper e ect; intergovernmental transfers; scal multiplier; monetaryunion; regression discontinuity
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 100 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. Partisanship and fiscal policy in economic unions
    evidence from U.S. States
    Author: Carlino, Gerald A.; Drautzburg, Thorsten; Inman, Robert P.; Zarra, Nicholas
    Published: June 2020
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Series: Working papers / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 20, 20 (June 2020)
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. Bargaining shocks and aggregate fluctuations
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guerrón-Quintana, Pablo A.
    Published: March 2021
    Publisher:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers' bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements.... more

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    We argue that social and political risk causes significant aggregate fluctuations by changing workers' bargaining power. Using a Bayesian proxy-VAR estimated with U.S. data, we show how distribution shocks trigger output and unemployment movements. To quantify the aggregate importance of these distribution shocks, we extend an otherwise standard neoclassical growth economy. We model distribution shocks as exogenous changes in workers'bargaining power in a labor market with search and matching. We calibrate our economy to the U.S. corporate non-financial business sector, and we back out the evolution of workers' bargaining power. We show how the estimated shocks agree with the historical narrative evidence. We document that bargaining shocks account for 28% of aggregate fluctuations and have a welfare cost of 2.4% in consumption units.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235359
    Series: CESifo working paper ; no. 8989 (2021)
    Subjects: distribution risk; bargaining shocks; aggregate fluctuations; partial filter; historical narrative
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 114 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. A structural approach to combining external and DSGE model forecasts
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: [2023]
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

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    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signature:
    VS 438
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    No inter-library loan
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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Working papers / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; 23, 10 (June 2023)
    Subjects: forecasting; model averaging; DSGE model; judgmental forecasts
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Entrepreneurial tail risk
    implications for employment dynamics
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Dep., Philadelphia, Pa.

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: Rev.
    Series: Working papers / Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Research Department ; 13,45
    Scope: Online-Ressource (45, L S.), graph. Darst.
  24. A narrative approach to a fiscal DSGE model
    Author: Drautzburg, Thorsten
    Published: April 2016
    Publisher:  Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA

    Location:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Inter-library loan:
    No inter-library loan
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    Content information
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Edition: This version: March 28, 2016
    Series: Working paper / Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ; no. 16-11
    Subjects: Fiscal policy; monetary policy; DSGE model; Bayesian estimation; narrative shocks; Bayesian VAR
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 68 Seiten), Illustrationen