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  1. The geography of climate change risk analysis at central banks in Europe
    Published: July 2023
    Publisher:  Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest

    Incorporating climate change considerations in central bank decisions has been fraught with legal and technical controversies. Legal, because interpretations of central bank mandates in relation to sustainability has been widely cited as hurdles to... more

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 199
    No inter-library loan

     

    Incorporating climate change considerations in central bank decisions has been fraught with legal and technical controversies. Legal, because interpretations of central bank mandates in relation to sustainability has been widely cited as hurdles to the discussion of climate change; and technical, because no methodology used to exist to assess and to measure the impact of climate risks on financial stability. This paper first analyses the spatial and temporal process climate change-related risk analysis spread among central banks by text mining - counting relevant bigrams - in 941 European financial stability reports of 39 central banks in Europe. It then maps climate risk relevant references of these reports. The study argues that geographical proximity played a significant role in the spread of the climate friendly central bank mandate interpretations. It also shows that the ECB, together with representatives of EU national central banks and their technical know-how, played a pivotal role in turning an innovation from being a novel research method into an accepted analytical framework. At the beginning of 2023, it now paves the way a towards a Basel-conform banking regulation within the EU, which reflects climate change risks too.

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: MNB occasional papers ; 150
    Subjects: financial geography; central bank mandates; climate change; financial stability; text mining; bigram search; fiduciary duty
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Error spotting with gradient boosting
    a machine learning-based application for central bank data quality
    Published: May 2023
    Publisher:  Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest

    Supervised machine learning methods, in which no error labels are present, are increasingly popular methods for identifying potential data errors. Such algorithms rely on the tenet of a 'ground truth' in the data, which in other words assumes... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 199
    No inter-library loan

     

    Supervised machine learning methods, in which no error labels are present, are increasingly popular methods for identifying potential data errors. Such algorithms rely on the tenet of a 'ground truth' in the data, which in other words assumes correctness in the majority of the cases. Points deviating from such relationships, outliers, are flagged as potential data errors. This paper implements an outlier-based error-spotting algorithm using gradient boosting, and presents a blueprint for the modelling pipeline. More specifically, it underpins three main modelling hypotheses with empirical evidence, which are related to (1) missing value imputation, (2) the loss-function choice and (3) the location of the error. By doing so, it uses a cross sectional view on the loan-to-value and its related columns of the Credit Registry (Hitelregiszter) of the Central Bank of Hungary (MNB), and introduces a set of synthetic error types to test its hypotheses. The paper shows that gradient boosting is not materially impacted by the choice of the imputation method, hence, replacement with a constant, the computationally most efficient, is recommended. Second, the Huber-loss function, which is piecewise quadratic up until the Huber-slope parameter and linear above it, is better suited to cope with outlier values; it is therefore better in capturing data errors. Finally, errors in the target variable are captured best, while errors in the predictors are hardly found at all. These empirical results may generalize to other cases, depending on data specificities, and the modelling pipeline described underscores significant modelling decisions

     

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    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Series: MNB occasional papers ; 148
    Subjects: data quality; machine learning; gradient boosting; central banking; loss functions; missing values
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 34 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Defaulting alone
    the geography of SME owner numbers and credit risk in Hungary
    Published: January 2022
    Publisher:  Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest

    The transition from the state ownership to market mechanisms in Hungary fundamentally altered the geography of domestic micro, small, and medium enterprises (SMEs). This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of owner numbers, using... more

    Access:
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Verlag (kostenfrei)
    Resolving-System (kostenfrei)
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    DS 199
    No inter-library loan

     

    The transition from the state ownership to market mechanisms in Hungary fundamentally altered the geography of domestic micro, small, and medium enterprises (SMEs). This study investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of owner numbers, using data on all Hungarian SMEs between 1991 and 2019 and across 175 regional districts. Then it explores the relationship between the number of owners and the probability of credit default by joining data from the Credit Registry (KHR) for the period between 2007 and 2019. The number of owners at an average SME sank from four in 1991 to two in 2019, with consistently higher averages in less populated regions. Meanwhile, SMEs with one owner only have up to twice as high credit default probability as SMEs with more owners over all geographies in all years. Therefore, regionally varying ownership structures mean regionally differing ownership and management practices and hence risk levels. These could be mitigated with targeted regional policy measures.

     

    Export to reference management software   RIS file
      BibTeX file
    Source: Union catalogues
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    hdl: 10419/272878
    Series: MNB occasional papers ; 144
    Subjects: financial geography; ownership structures; credit risk; SMEs
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten), Illustrationen