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  1. The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand
    Published: June 2018
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C.

    Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase... more

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    Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase in energy consumption over this period. As emerging market economies mature and shift towards less commodity-intensive activities, their demand for commodities may plateau. This paper estimates income elasticities of demand for a range of energy, metal and food commodities, and finds evidence of plateauing among several commodities. Looking ahead, as economies mature and GDP growth slows, growth in demand for commodities may also slow. Based on current population and GDP growth forecasts, this paper produces scenarios of potential growth in demand for commodities over the next decade. While global energy consumption growth may remain broadly steady, growth in global demand for metals and food could slow by one-third over the next decade. This would dampen global commodity prices. Despite an expected slowdown in its growth rate, China would likely remain the single largest consumer of many commodities. For the two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that depend on raw materials for government and export revenues, these prospects reinforce the need for economic diversification and the strengthening of policy frameworks

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 8495
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. The 2014–16 oil price collapse in retrospect sources and implications
    Published: April 2018
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C.

    With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the... more

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    Evangelische Hochschule Berlin, Bibliothek
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    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    World Bank Nationallizenz
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    With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oil exporters and oil importers, and reviews policy responses in these countries. The main conclusions are: (i) the decline in oil prices was predominantly triggered by supply factors, particularly rapid efficiency gains in U.S. shale oil production, but softening demand prospects played a substantial role as well; (ii) the short-term benefits of falling oil prices for the global economy were muted by economic rebalancing in China, a low responsiveness of activity in other oil-importing emerging markets, and a sharp slowdown in U.S. investment as energy sector activity declined and a the U.S. dollar strengthened; (iii) oil exporters with flexible exchange rates and relatively large fiscal buffers fared better than others, but most oil-exporting economies still face significant policy challenges as their medium-term prospects for growth and fiscal revenues have deteriorated; (iv) fundamental changes in the oil market make a return to the oil price levels of the early 2010s unlikely, pointing to the need for accelerated reforms, particularly among oil exporters

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 8419
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: Ölpreis; Ölsand; Ölmarkt; Finanzpolitik; Geldpolitik; Subvention; OPEC-Staaten
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. Cotton
    market setting, trade policies, and issues
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2004
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
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    W 480 (3218)
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Format: Print
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 3218
    Subjects: Baumwolle; Außenhandel; Welt; Cotton trade
    Scope: XII, 76 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  4. Disciplining agricultural support through decoupling
    Published: 2005
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    6 B 61328
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    W 480 (3533)
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 3533
    Subjects: Agrarsubvention; Agrarpolitik; Welt; Agricultural subsidies; Overproduction; Agriculture; Agricultural subsidies; Overproduction; Agriculture and state
    Scope: VII, 70 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  5. The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices
    Published: 2005
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    6 B 61611
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 3534
    Subjects: Baumwolle; Erdöl; Preis; Welt; Kunststoff; Petroleum; Polyester industry; Cotton fabrics; Petroleum products
    Scope: 29 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  6. Adding fuel to the fire
    cheap oil during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Prospects Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the... more

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    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
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    The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the likely implications of the 2020 oil price plunge for emerging market and developing economies. It presents four main results. First, the record plunge in oil prices was predominantly driven by demand factors as wide-ranging measures to stem the pandemic precipitated an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, but the surge in oil inventories also exerted downward pressure on oil prices. Second, this latest oil price decline was preceded by six previous plunges over the past half-century, during which energy exporters and importers suffered similar initial output losses (about 0.5 percent) that were unwound within three years. Third, the current episode of low oil prices holds limited promise to boost the global economy amid widespread restrictions and narrow room for fiscal support in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies. Fourth, many emerging market and developing economies entered the current public health crisis with precarious fiscal positions; current low oil prices are thus an opportunity to review energy-pricing policies, including remaining energy subsidies, to mobilize domestic resources

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9320
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. The role of income and substitution in commodity demand
    Published: January 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Prospects Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    This paper presents estimates of time-varying income elasticities of demand for energy and metal commodities. The analysis finds that the elasticities are close to unity, evaluated at world median per capita income levels. Furthermore, the estimates... more

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    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
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    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
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    This paper presents estimates of time-varying income elasticities of demand for energy and metal commodities. The analysis finds that the elasticities are close to unity, evaluated at world median per capita income levels. Furthermore, the estimates confirm that as income rises, demand growth for industrial commodities slows and eventually plateaus. Indeed, estimates for aggregate metals and energy differ by an order of magnitude throughout the income spectrum: from a low of 0.2 for advanced economies to nearly 2 for low-income countries. The analysis, which accounts for substitutability by estimating group aggregates as well as individual commodities with cross-price effects, is based on a panel autoregressive distributed lag model covering 1965-2018, for up to 63 countries

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
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    Format: Online
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9122
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: Einkommenselastizität der Nachfrage; Energie; Metall; Rohstoffmarkt; Konsumtheorie; Welt
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 72 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Cotton
    market setting, trade policies, and issues
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2004
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 3218
    Subjects: Baumwolle; Außenhandel; Welt; Cotton trade
    Scope: XII, 76 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  9. Restructuring Uganda's coffee industry
    why going back to the basics matters
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2006
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 4020
    Subjects: Kaffeesektor; Kaffeepolitik; Uganda
    Scope: 28 S., graph. Darst.
    Notes:
  10. Disciplining agricultural support through decoupling
    Published: 2005
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 3533
    Subjects: Agrarsubvention; Agrarpolitik; Welt; Agricultural subsidies; Overproduction; Agriculture; Agricultural subsidies; Overproduction; Agriculture and state
    Scope: VII, 70 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  11. The co-movement between cotton and polyester prices
    Published: 2005
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Print
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 3534
    Subjects: Baumwolle; Erdöl; Preis; Welt; Kunststoff; Petroleum; Polyester industry; Cotton fabrics; Petroleum products
    Scope: 29 S, graph. Darst
    Notes:
  12. The role of major emerging markets in global commodity demand
    Published: June 2018
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C.

    Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase... more

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
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    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    Rapid growth among the major emerging markets over the past 20 years has boosted global demand for commodities. The seven largest emerging markets accounted for almost all the increase in global consumption of metals, and two-thirds of the increase in energy consumption over this period. As emerging market economies mature and shift towards less commodity-intensive activities, their demand for commodities may plateau. This paper estimates income elasticities of demand for a range of energy, metal and food commodities, and finds evidence of plateauing among several commodities. Looking ahead, as economies mature and GDP growth slows, growth in demand for commodities may also slow. Based on current population and GDP growth forecasts, this paper produces scenarios of potential growth in demand for commodities over the next decade. While global energy consumption growth may remain broadly steady, growth in global demand for metals and food could slow by one-third over the next decade. This would dampen global commodity prices. Despite an expected slowdown in its growth rate, China would likely remain the single largest consumer of many commodities. For the two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that depend on raw materials for government and export revenues, these prospects reinforce the need for economic diversification and the strengthening of policy frameworks

     

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    Volltext (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
    Language: English
    Media type: Book
    Format: Online
    Other identifier:
    Series: Policy research working paper ; 8495
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The 2014–16 oil price collapse in retrospect sources and implications
    Published: April 2018
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C.

    With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the... more

    Access:
    Verlag (Deutschlandweit zugänglich)
    Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Bibliothek und wissenschaftliche Information
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Unter den Linden
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan
    Universität Potsdam, Universitätsbibliothek
    Unlimited inter-library loan, copies and loan

     

    With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oil exporters and oil importers, and reviews policy responses in these countries. The main conclusions are: (i) the decline in oil prices was predominantly triggered by supply factors, particularly rapid efficiency gains in U.S. shale oil production, but softening demand prospects played a substantial role as well; (ii) the short-term benefits of falling oil prices for the global economy were muted by economic rebalancing in China, a low responsiveness of activity in other oil-importing emerging markets, and a sharp slowdown in U.S. investment as energy sector activity declined and a the U.S. dollar strengthened; (iii) oil exporters with flexible exchange rates and relatively large fiscal buffers fared better than others, but most oil-exporting economies still face significant policy challenges as their medium-term prospects for growth and fiscal revenues have deteriorated; (iv) fundamental changes in the oil market make a return to the oil price levels of the early 2010s unlikely, pointing to the need for accelerated reforms, particularly among oil exporters

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 8419
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Subjects: Ölpreis; Ölsand; Ölmarkt; Finanzpolitik; Geldpolitik; Subvention; OPEC-Staaten
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  14. More on the energy/non-energy commodity price link
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2009
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Global Trends Team, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 4982
    Subjects: Rohstoffpreis; Energiepreis; Schätzung; Welt
    Scope: Online-Ressource (15 S.)
    Notes:

    Literaturverz. S. 14 - 15

  15. Restructuring Uganda's coffee industry
    why going back to the basics matters
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2006
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

    Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin - Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Haus Potsdamer Straße
    1 B 106783
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 4020
    Subjects: Kaffeesektor; Kaffeepolitik; Uganda
    Scope: 28 S., graph. Darst.
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  16. Markets for cotton by-products
    global trends and implications for African cotton producers
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group [u.a.], Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 5355
    Scope: Online-Ressource (63 S.), graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Literaturverz. S. 24 - 27

  17. Placing the 2006/08 commodity price boom into perspective
    Published: 2010
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Research Group, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 5371
    Scope: Online-Ressource (40 S.), graph. Darst.
    Notes:

    Literaturverz. S. 29 - 35

  18. Cotton, biotechnology, and economic development
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 5896
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 24 S., 1,82 MB), graph. Darst.
  19. Cotton subsidies, the WTO, and the "cotton problem"
    Author: Baffes, John
    Published: 2011
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Economics, Development Prospects Group & Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Washington, DC

    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    VS 2 (5663)
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 5663
    Subjects: Baumwolle; Baumwollanbau; Subvention; WTO-Recht; Internationale Schiedsgerichtsbarkeit; Brasilien; USA
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 28 S., 2,1 MB), graph. Darst.
  20. What drives local food prices?
    evidence from the Tanzanian maize market
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Development Economics Vice-Presidency, Prospects Group, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 7338
    Subjects: Lebensmittelpreis; Maispreis; Ausfuhrverbot; Wetter; Tansania
    Scope: Online-Ressource (47 S.), graph. Darst., Kt.
  21. Long-term drivers of food prices
    Published: 2013
    Publisher:  World Bank, Development Prospects Group & Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network, Trade Department, Washington, DC

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    VS 2 (6455)
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 6455
    Subjects: Rohstoffpreis; Lebensmittelpreis; Welt
    Scope: Online-Ressource (PDF-Datei: 35 S., 2,59 MB), graph. Darst.
  22. What explains agricultural price movements?
    Published: March 2016
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Development Economics Vice Presidency, Development Prospects Group, Washington, D.C.

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 7589
    Subjects: Agrarpreis; Volatilität
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 25 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. Analyzing food price trends in the context of Engel’s law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Development Economics Vice Presidency, Prospects Group, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 7424
    Subjects: Terms of Trade; Rohstoffpreis; Lebensmittelpreis; Engel-Kurve
    Scope: Online-Ressource (35 S.), graph. Darst.
  24. Sources of volatility during four oil price crashes
    Published: 2015
    Publisher:  Development Economics Vice Presidency, Prospects Group, Washington, DC

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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 7425
    Subjects: Erdöl; Ölpreis; Volatilität; Nichtparametrisches Verfahren; ARCH-Modell
    Scope: Online-Ressource (12 S.), graph. Darst.
  25. Adding fuel to the fire
    cheap oil during the COVID-19 pandemic
    Published: July 2020
    Publisher:  World Bank Group, Prospects Group, [Washington, DC, USA]

    The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the... more

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    The outbreak of COVID-19 and the wide-ranging measures needed to slow its advance triggered an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, a surge in oil inventories, and a record one-month decline in oil prices in March 2020. This paper examines the likely implications of the 2020 oil price plunge for emerging market and developing economies. It presents four main results. First, the record plunge in oil prices was predominantly driven by demand factors as wide-ranging measures to stem the pandemic precipitated an unprecedented collapse in oil demand, but the surge in oil inventories also exerted downward pressure on oil prices. Second, this latest oil price decline was preceded by six previous plunges over the past half-century, during which energy exporters and importers suffered similar initial output losses (about 0.5 percent) that were unwound within three years. Third, the current episode of low oil prices holds limited promise to boost the global economy amid widespread restrictions and narrow room for fiscal support in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies. Fourth, many emerging market and developing economies entered the current public health crisis with precarious fiscal positions; current low oil prices are thus an opportunity to review energy-pricing policies, including remaining energy subsidies, to mobilize domestic resources

     

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    Source: Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin
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    Series: Policy research working paper ; 9320
    World Bank E-Library Archive
    Scope: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 49 Seiten), Illustrationen