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  1. The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E)
    Autor*in: Borchert, Ingo; Larch, Mario; Shikher, Serge; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: May 2020
    Verlag:  U.S. International Trade Commission, Washington, DC

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series / U.S. International Trade Commission ; no. 2020, 05-C
    Schlagworte: Internationale Handelspolitik; Wirtschaftsstatistik; Wirtschaftsprognose; Welt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 47 Seiten), Illustrationen
  2. Disaggregated gravity: benchmark estimates and stylized facts from a new database
    Autor*in: Borchert, Ingo; Larch, Mario; Shikher, Serge; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: June 2020
    Verlag:  U.S. International Trade Commission, Washington, DC

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    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series / U.S. International Trade Commission ; no. 2020, 06-A
    Schlagworte: Gravitationsmodell; Schätzung; Datenbank; Branche; Disaggregation; Maximum-Likelihood-Schätzung; Welt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 29 Seiten), Illustrationen
  3. On the heterogeneous trade and welfare effects of GATT/WTO membership
    Autor*in: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Larch, Mario; Yalçin, Erdal; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: 09/2020
    Verlag:  Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel

    We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries... mehr

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    Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Bibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member counties is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefitting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small for non-member countries. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to beneficial terms-of-trade effects.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/224063
    Schriftenreihe: Kiel working paper ; no. 2166 (September 2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  4. Gravity-model estimation with time-interval data
    revisiting the impact of free trade agreements
    Autor*in: Egger, Peter; Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We challenge the common practice of estimating gravity equations with time-interval data in order to capture dynamic-adjustment effects to trade-policy changes. Instead, we point to a series of advantages of using consecutive-year data recognizing... mehr

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    We challenge the common practice of estimating gravity equations with time-interval data in order to capture dynamic-adjustment effects to trade-policy changes. Instead, we point to a series of advantages of using consecutive-year data recognizing dynamic-adjustment effects. Our analysis reveals that, relative to time-interval data, the proposed approach avoids downward-biased effect estimates due to the distribution of trade-policy events during an event window as well as due to anticipation (pre-interval) and delayed (post-interval) effects, and it improves the efficiency of effect estimates due to the use of more data.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226255
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8553 (2020)
    Schlagworte: Außenwirtschaftspolitik; Freihandelsabkommen; Außenhandel; Gravitationsmodell; Welt
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 35 Seiten), Illustrationen
  5. Preferential trade liberalization with endogenous cartel discipline
    implications for welfare and optimal trade policies
    Autor*in: Agnosteva, Delina; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We consider an international cartel whose members interact repeatedly in their own as well as in third-country segmented markets. Cartel discipline-an inverse measure of the degree of competition between firms-is endogenously determined by the... mehr

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    We consider an international cartel whose members interact repeatedly in their own as well as in third-country segmented markets. Cartel discipline-an inverse measure of the degree of competition between firms-is endogenously determined by the cartel’s incentive compatibility constraint (ICC), which links strategically markets that are seemingly unrelated. Owing to this linkage, trade cost reductions induce cartel members to adjust their sales, not only due to direct effects, but also due to spillover effects related to cartel discipline. We apply these ideas to preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and show that the indirect effects can give rise to trade diversion. We also characterize the welfare effects of preferential tariff cuts for all countries under various circumstances regarding the determination of external PTA trade policy. A persistent finding is that, in the absence of appropriate regulation, preferential trade liberalization can be welfare-reducing even when external policy is jointly optimal.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226256
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8554 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 66 Seiten), Illustrationen
  6. On the heterogeneous trade and welfare effects of GATT/WTO membership
    Autor*in: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Larch, Mario; Yalçin, Erdal; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: September 2020
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries... mehr

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    Verlag (kostenfrei)
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    Standort:
    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
    Signatur:
    DS 63
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    We build on the latest developments in the structural gravity literature to quantify the partial and general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade and welfare. Using an extensive database covering manufacturing trade for 186 countries over the period 1980-2016, we find that the average impact of GATT/WTO membership on trade among member counties is large, positive, and significant. We contribute to the literature by estimating country-specific estimates and find them to vary widely across the countries in our sample with poorer members benefitting more. Using these estimates, we simulate the general equilibrium effects of GATT/WTO on welfare, which are sizable and heterogeneous across members, and relatively small for non-member countries. We show that countries not experiencing positive trade effects from joining GATT/WTO can still gain in terms of welfare, due to beneficial terms-of-trade effects.

     
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    Format: Online
    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/226257
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8555 (2020)
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten), Illustrationen
  7. One nation, one language?
    domestic language diversity, trade and welfare
    Autor*in: Gurevitch, Tamara; Herman, Peter; Toubal, Farid; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: 21.01.21
    Verlag:  CEPII, Paris

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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper / CEPII ; no 2020, 15 (December)
    Schlagworte: Common Language; Ethno-linguistic Diversity; Identity; International Trade; Domestic Trade; Domestic Trade Costs; Welfare
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 52 Seiten), Illustrationen
  8. Trade costs in the global economy
    measurement, aggregation and decomposition
    Autor*in: Egger, Peter; Larch, Mario; Nigai, Sergey; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: 11 January 2021
    Verlag:  World Trade Organization, Economic Research and Statistics Division, [Geneva]

    Proper measurement and aggregation of trade costs is of paramount importance for sound academic and policy analysis of the determinants - particularly those of policy - of economic outcomes. The international trade profession has witnessed... mehr

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    Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches öffentliches Recht und Völkerrecht, Bibliothek
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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Proper measurement and aggregation of trade costs is of paramount importance for sound academic and policy analysis of the determinants - particularly those of policy - of economic outcomes. The international trade profession has witnessed significant new developments, both on the theoretical and on the empirical side, concerning the measurement and decomposition of such costs into variable and fixed costs on the one hand and into partial and general equilibrium effects on the other hand. The objectives and main contributions of this project are to offer guidance for proper measurement, aggregation, and decomposition of trade costs into fixed vs. variable and partial vs. general equilibrium costs across two broad dimensions, one including overall trade costs vs. policy measures vs. transportation costs vs. natural trade barriers vs. uncertainty and another one including geography vs. product vs. household income level vs. agent.

     
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    hdl: 10419/229625
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Manuscript date: 10 May 2018
    Schriftenreihe: Staff working paper ; ERSD-2021, 2
    Schlagworte: Trade costs; Structural gravity; Multi-sector and multi-country models; Heterogeneous firms; Panel data; Measurement; Aggregation; Decomposition
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 116 Seiten), Illustrationen
  9. Estimating the effects of non-discriminatory trade policies within structural gravity models
    Autor*in: Heid, Benedikt; Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: [2020]
    Verlag:  [School of Economics, University of Adelaide], [Adelaide]

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working papers / The University of Adelaide, School of Economics ; no. 2020, 06 (June 2020)
    Schlagworte: Gravity Model; Non-discriminatory Trade Policies; Tariffs; Subsidies; Time to Export; Trade Elasticity of Substitution
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  10. A simple method to quantify the ex-ante effects of "deep" trade liberalization and "hard" trade protection
    Autor*in: Larch, Mario; Tan, Shawn W.; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: August 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We propose a simple and flexible econometric approach to quantify ex-ante the "deep" impact of trade liberalization and the "hard" effects of protection with the empirical structural gravity model. Specifically, we argue that the difference between... mehr

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    DS 63
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    We propose a simple and flexible econometric approach to quantify ex-ante the "deep" impact of trade liberalization and the "hard" effects of protection with the empirical structural gravity model. Specifically, we argue that the difference between the estimates of border indicator variables for affected and non-affected countries can be used as a comprehensive measure of the change in bilateral trade costs in response to a hypothetical policy change. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, we focus on the integration between the countries from the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and the European Union (EU); an important policy application that has not been studied before due to lack of data. We overcome this challenge by utilizing a new dataset on trade and production that covers all EU countries and all CEFTA members (except for Kosovo). The partial equilibrium estimates that we obtain confirm the validity of our methods, while the corresponding general equilibrium effects point to significant and heterogeneous potential gains for the CEFTA countries from joining the EU. The proposed methods can also be extended to ex-post analysis and are readily applicable to other applications, e.g. "hard" Brexit.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/245405
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9224 (2021)
    Schlagworte: trade costs; trade policy; structural gravity; CEFTA; EU
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten)
  11. Quantifying the extensive margin(s) of trade
    the case of uneven European integration
    Autor*in: Anderson, James E.; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We propose a short-run theory of the extensive margins of trade, comprising the standard international extensive margin and a novel domestic extensive margin. The domestic extensive margin allows identification of globalization and specific policy... mehr

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    We propose a short-run theory of the extensive margins of trade, comprising the standard international extensive margin and a novel domestic extensive margin. The domestic extensive margin allows identification of globalization and specific policy effects not properly identified in previous literature. To apply our methods, we build a new dataset covering both the cross-border and domestic extensive margins for 35 countries, 1995-2014. We deploy it to quantify the extensive margins effects of globalization and European integration. We find strong positive effects of globalization and also significant but highly asymmetric effects of European integration in favor of more developed EU members.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263752
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9822 (2022)
    Schlagworte: extensive margin; domestic extensive margin; globalization; EU; gravity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 63 Seiten), Illustrationen
  12. Do sanctions affect growth?
    Autor*in: Kwon, Ohyun; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: June 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Direct measures of the economic impact of sanctions are contaminated by the endogeneity that arises when other events in target countries (e.g., civil or interstate conflicts, political independence, etc.) instigate the imposition of sanctions. To... mehr

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    Direct measures of the economic impact of sanctions are contaminated by the endogeneity that arises when other events in target countries (e.g., civil or interstate conflicts, political independence, etc.) instigate the imposition of sanctions. To address this issue, we propose a novel instrument, sender's aggressiveness, captured by the number of sanctions imposed in a given year. After establishing the validity of this instrument, we quantify the impact of sanctions on growth in sanctioned states and show that, on average, an additional sanction decreases contemporaneous real GDP per capita in target states by 0.39 percent. We also substantiate the presence of a significant (in magnitude) downward bias in the corresponding OLS estimates and demonstrate that the effects of sanctions on growth vary widely depending on the types of sanctions considered, their purported objectives, measures of their success, and the duration of their effects.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/263748
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9818 (2022)
    Schlagworte: real GDP per capita growth; trade sanctions; smart sanctions; long-run effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  13. The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation - Release 2 (ITPD-E-R02)
    Autor*in: Borchert, Ingo; Larch, Mario; Shikher, Serge; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: July 2022
    Verlag:  U.S. International Trade Commission, Washington, DC

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    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series / U.S. International Trade Commission ; no. 2022, 07-A
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 42 Seiten)
  14. The World Trade Organization at 25
    assessing the economic value of the rules based global trading system
    Autor*in: Felbermayr, Gabriel; Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto; Yalçin, Erdal
    Erschienen: 2019
    Verlag:  Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Quelle: Verbundkataloge
    Sprache: Englisch
    Medientyp: Buch (Monographie)
    Format: Online
    Auflage/Ausgabe: Final report, November 2019
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
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    „A study on behalf ot the Bertelsmann Stiftung“ – 3. Seite des Dokuments
  15. Pound for pound export diversification
    Autor*in: Anderson, James E.; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: December 2020
    Verlag:  National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA

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    ZBW - Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Standort Kiel
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    Schriftenreihe: Working paper series / National Bureau of Economic Research ; 28277
    Schlagworte: Exportdiversifizierung; Europäische Integration; Außenwirtschaftstheorie; EU-Staaten
    Umfang: 61 Seiten, Illustrationen
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    Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe
  16. The variation of gravity within countries (or 15 reasons why gravity should be estimated with domestic trade flows)
    Autor*in: Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: May 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    The gravity equation is the workhorse model for analysis of bilateral trade flows. Despite solid theoretical foundations and clear gains from theory-consistent policy analysis, there are still gaps between gravity theory and empirics. This paper... mehr

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    The gravity equation is the workhorse model for analysis of bilateral trade flows. Despite solid theoretical foundations and clear gains from theory-consistent policy analysis, there are still gaps between gravity theory and empirics. This paper focuses on domestic trade flows, and I argue that there are significant benefits from adhering to theory by estimating gravity equations with domestic (in addition to international) trade flows. To this end, I review the contributions from the related literature and I synthesize them into fifteen arguments for using domestic trade flows in gravity estimations. The survey of the literature reveals the need for further theory contributions and new data developments, and points to opportunities for more empirical analysis and policy applications.

     
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    hdl: 10419/235427
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9057 (2021)
    Schlagworte: domestic trade flows; structural gravity; trade policy; estimation
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 38 Seiten)
  17. Output insecurity and ownership disputes as barriers to technology diffusion
    Autor*in: Camacho, Oscar; Garfinkel, Michelle Robin; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper examines both the desirability and feasibility of technology transfers in a setting where institutions governing the security of output or income are imperfect. Based on a guns-versus-butter model involving two countries (a technology... mehr

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    This paper examines both the desirability and feasibility of technology transfers in a setting where institutions governing the security of output or income are imperfect. Based on a guns-versus-butter model involving two countries (a technology leader and a technology laggard), our analysis characterizes how global efficiency and the countries' preferences over transfers depend on the nature of technology, as well as on the initial technological distance between them and the degree of output security. In the case of a general-purpose technology the leader might refuse a transfer, whereas in the case of a sector-specific technology the laggard might have such an incentive. Notably, for both types of technology, our analysis reveals the possible emergence of a "low-technology trap", wherein a technology transfer to the laggard is more likely to be blocked precisely when the laggard's initial technology is sufficiently inferior to its rival. We explore how the degree of output security and the laggard's capacity to absorb state-of-the-art technology affect the range of technological distances that generate such traps for each type of technology.

     
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    hdl: 10419/267260
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10027 (2022)
    Schlagworte: output insecurity; arming policies; power; technology transfers; sanctions
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 79 Seiten), Illustrationen
  18. Deep trade agreements and FDI in partial and general equilibrium
    a structural estimation framework
    Autor*in: Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: October 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    We quantify the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI). To this end, we focus on the effects of Deep Trade Agreements (DTAs), and we rely on a structural framework that simultaneously enables us to (i)... mehr

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    We quantify the relationships between deep trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI). To this end, we focus on the effects of Deep Trade Agreements (DTAs), and we rely on a structural framework that simultaneously enables us to (i) estimate the direct impact of DTAs on FDI, (ii) translate the partial DTA estimates into general equilibrium effects on FDI; and (iii) obtain partial DTA effects on trade and quantify the impact of DTAs on FDI through trade. We obtain sizable, positive, and statistically significant estimates of the effects of DTAs on both trade and FDI. A counterfactual analysis suggests that, in combination through direct and indirect channels, DTAs have contributed to a large but very asymmetric increase in inward vs. outward FDI.

     
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    Weitere Identifier:
    hdl: 10419/266020
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9985 (2022)
    Schlagworte: foreign direct investment (FDI); trade liberalization; deep trade agreements
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  19. Estimating the effects of trade agreements
    lessons from 60 years of methods and data
    Autor*in: Larch, Mario; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: February 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    Starting with Tinbergen (1962), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs,... mehr

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    Starting with Tinbergen (1962), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade-the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and also in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen's very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.

     
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    hdl: 10419/271911
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10267 (2023)
    Schlagworte: regional trade agreements; gravity equation; estimation; methods; data
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 41 Seiten), Illustrationen
  20. The empire project
    trade policy in interwar canada
    Autor*in: Lampe, Markus; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj; Reiter, Lorenz; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: 25 May 2023
    Verlag:  Centre for Economic Policy Research, London

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    Schriftenreihe: Array ; DP18162
    Schlagworte: Trade policy; Trade Agreements; Interwar Tariffs; Multilateral Resistances; Trade Elasticities; Canada; Empire
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  21. The empire project
    trade policy in interwar Canada
    Autor*in: Lampe, Markus; O'Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj; Reiter, Lorenz; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: May 2023
    Verlag:  CESifo, Munich, Germany

    This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including... mehr

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    This paper uses a new dataset on the universe of Canadian imports and tariffs between 1924 and 1936, disaggregated into 1697 goods originating in 112 countries, to analyse the impact on Canadian imports of interwar Canadian trade policy, including the 1932 Ottawa trade agreements. Rather than use a dummy variable approach, we compute the impact of individual tariffs which varied substantially across goods, trade partners, and time. We develop a novel method of controlling for multilateral resistances in the context of a one-country dataset, and perform a variety of counterfactual exercises to determine the impact of tariffs on trade flows. The overall impact of post-1929 tariff shifts, including the 1932 agreements, was relatively small, reflecting the fact that Canadian trade policy was already highly protectionist: trade agreements can have heterogenous effects on participants because the shocks involved are different. Compared with a free trade counterfactual, the impact of the overall structure of protection on the level and composition of trade was large.

     
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    hdl: 10419/279168
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working papers ; 10419 (2023)
    Schlagworte: Außenwirtschaftspolitik; Zollpolitik; Handelsabkommen; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen; Außenhandelselastizität; Wirkungsanalyse; Wirtschaftsgeschichte; Kanada; trade policy; trade agreements; interwar tariffs; multilateral resistance; trade elasticities; Canada; empire
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 61 Seiten), Illustrationen
  22. Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors
    Autor*in: Larch, Mario; Shikher, Serge; Syropoulos, Constantinos; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: February 2021
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    Capitalizing on the latest developments in the gravity literature, we utilize two new datasets on sanctions and trade to study the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the mining sector, which includes oil and natural gas. We... mehr

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    Capitalizing on the latest developments in the gravity literature, we utilize two new datasets on sanctions and trade to study the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the mining sector, which includes oil and natural gas. We demonstrate that the gravity equation is well suited to model bilateral trade in mining and find that sanctions have been effective in impeding mining trade. Our analysis reveals that complete trade sanctions have reduced bilateral mining trade by about 44 percent on average. We also document the presence of significant heterogeneity in the effects of sanctions on mining trade across mining industries and across sanction episodes/cases, depending on the sanctioning and sanctioned countries, the type of sanctions used, and the direction of trade flows. We take a close look at the impact of recent sanctions on Iran and Russia.

     
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    hdl: 10419/232475
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 8878 (2021)
    Schlagworte: structural gravity; sanctions; mining; oil; trade effects
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 44 Seiten), Illustrationen
  23. One nation, one language?
    domestic language diversity, trade and welfare
    Autor*in: Gurevich, Tamara; Herman, Peter; Toubal, Farid; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: January 2021
    Verlag:  U.S. International Trade Commission, Washington, DC

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    Schriftenreihe: Economics working paper series / U.S. International Trade Commission ; no. 2021, 01-B
    Schlagworte: Common language; ethno-linguistic diversity; identity; international trade; domestic trade; domestic trade costs; welfare
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 51 Seiten), Illustrationen
  24. Pound for pound export diversification
    Autor*in: Anderson, James E.; Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: 2020
    Verlag:  Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA

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    Schriftenreihe: Boston College working papers in economics ; 1021
    Schlagworte: Extensive Margin; Domestic Extensive Margin; Globalization; Gravity
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 62 Seiten), Illustrationen
  25. Gravity at sixty
    the workhorse model of trade
    Autor*in: Yotov, Yoto
    Erschienen: February 2022
    Verlag:  CESifo, Center for Economic Studies & Ifo Institute, Munich, Germany

    On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a "celebrity", due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive... mehr

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    On the eve of its 60th anniversary, the gravity model of trade is a "celebrity", due to its intuitive appeal, solid theoretical foundations, and remarkable empirical success. Yet, many economists still view gravity simply as an intuitive but naive reduced-form estimating equation and apply it without guidance from theory, while others are skeptical about its usefulness for counterfactual projections. The objective of this paper is to offer a historical overview of its evolution from an a-theoretical application to an estimating computable general equilibrium (E-CGE) model, which can be nested in more complex frameworks. Along the way, I address some misconceptions about the gravity model, summarize the current best practices for gravity estimations, and highlight some properties that have made gravity so successful.

     
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    hdl: 10419/252101
    Schriftenreihe: CESifo working paper ; no. 9584 (2022)
    Schlagworte: structural gravity; evolution; theory; estimation general equilibrium
    Umfang: 1 Online-Ressource (circa 48 Seiten)